Santiago Mendoza

C DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 R/R 5'7" / 184 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#726ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKTB	142	.259/.429/.324	1	8	51	—	.171/.307/.197
2026	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	146	.327/.542/.408	0	10	98	—	.218/.403/.264
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBTB	256	.221/.317/.297	2	5	79	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBTB	44	.228/.323/.313	0	1	83	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBTB	110	.231/.326/.324	1	3	87	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%98

wOBA97

Chase%97

wRC+96

Whiff%94

Z-Con%94

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNacho Alvarez Jr. (age 20) · Cristofer Torin (age 19) · Alexander Albertus (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .314 / .294

PA76

HR1

K%24

BB%11

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$40M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT59

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	142	108	28	4	0	1	30	25	2	8	1	259	429	324	753	65	325	18	21	355	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	98	32	2	3	0	41	23	5	10	3	327	542	408	950	82	427	16	28	439	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	142	117	20	3	0	0	21	30	2	8	1	171	307	197	504	26	215	21	15	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	110	24	1	2	0	29	28	5	10	3	218	403	264	666	45	285	19	20	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	142	117	20	3	0	0	21	30	2	8	1	171	307	197	504	26	227	21	15	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	142	108	28	4	0	1	30	25	2	8	1	259	429	324	753	65	325	18	21	355	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	110	24	1	2	0	29	28	5	10	3	218	403	264	666	45	293	19	20	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	98	32	2	3	0	41	23	5	10	3	327	542	408	950	82	427	16	28	439	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	142	118	20	3	0	0	21	30	2	8	1	169	307	195	502	25	215	21	15	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	111	24	1	2	0	29	28	5	10	3	216	403	261	664	45	285	19	20	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	142	118	20	3	0	0	21	30	2	8	1	169	307	195	502	25	215	21	15	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	146	111	24	1	2	0	29	28	5	10	3	216	403	261	664	45	285	19	20	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TB	0%	256	223	49	7	2	2	28	63	3	5	1	221	317	297	613	76	295	25	11	284	79	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TB	34%	129	112	25	4	1	1	14	31	2	3	1	225	321	311	631	86	297	24	11	291	83	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	TB	48%	228	198	45	6	2	3	25	54	3	5	1	228	323	322	646	94	297	24	11	297	87	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	TB	54%	340	295	69	10	3	5	37	81	5	8	2	231	325	332	657	101	298	24	11	301	90	-4	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	TB	57%	417	363	84	12	3	7	45	98	6	10	3	233	326	340	666	107	298	24	11	304	92	-4	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	TB	57%	445	389	92	14	3	8	47	104	6	11	3	235	327	347	674	111	299	23	11	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	TB	57%	445	389	92	14	3	8	47	104	6	11	3	235	327	348	675	113	299	23	11	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	445	389	92	14	3	8	47	104	6	11	3	235	327	349	676	113	299	23	11	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	445	389	91	14	3	8	47	105	6	10	3	234	326	346	672	111	298	24	11	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	445	389	89	13	3	7	47	106	6	10	3	232	324	341	665	108	297	24	11	303	91	-5	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	445	390	89	13	3	7	47	107	5	9	3	230	322	334	656	104	296	24	11	300	89	-6	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	TB	53%	445	390	89	13	3	7	47	109	5	9	3	227	318	326	644	99	294	24	11	295	86	-8	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	TB	57%	426	374	84	12	3	6	44	106	5	7	3	223	313	316	629	94	291	25	10	289	82	-9	+0	-3	+8	+9	0.5
2040	32	MLB MLE	TB	54%	407	358	78	11	3	5	42	103	4	6	5	217	307	304	611	86	288	25	10	282	77	-11	-1	-4	+7	+9	0.1
2041	33	MLB MLE	TB	58%	362	318	67	9	2	4	37	93	4	5	7	211	300	290	590	78	283	26	10	273	71	-13	-2	-4	+6	+8	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	TB	34%	44	38	8	1	0	0	5	11	1	1	0	228	323	313	636	85	301	25	11	293	83	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	TB	48%	110	96	22	3	1	1	12	26	1	3	1	231	326	324	650	93	302	24	11	298	87	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	TB	54%	184	159	38	5	2	3	20	44	3	4	1	234	328	334	661	100	302	24	11	303	90	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	TB	57%	236	206	49	7	2	4	25	56	3	6	1	236	329	341	670	105	303	24	11	306	92	-2	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	TB	57%	252	220	52	8	2	4	27	59	3	6	2	238	329	348	677	110	303	23	11	308	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2033	25	MLB CTX	TB	57%	251	219	52	8	2	4	27	59	3	6	2	238	330	349	679	111	303	24	11	309	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	251	219	52	8	2	4	27	59	3	6	2	238	330	350	679	112	303	24	11	309	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	247	216	51	7	2	4	26	58	3	6	2	237	329	347	676	110	302	23	11	307	93	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	244	213	50	7	2	4	26	58	3	5	2	235	327	342	669	107	301	24	11	305	91	-3	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	238	208	49	7	2	4	25	57	3	5	2	233	324	336	660	103	300	24	11	301	89	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2038	30	MLB CTX	TB	53%	234	204	47	7	2	3	25	57	3	5	2	229	320	328	648	98	298	24	11	297	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	TB	57%	241	211	48	7	2	3	25	60	3	4	2	225	316	318	633	92	295	25	10	291	82	-5	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.3
2040	32	MLB CTX	TB	54%	221	194	43	6	1	3	23	56	2	3	3	220	310	305	615	85	292	25	10	283	77	-6	-1	-2	+4	+5	0.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	TB	58%	209	184	39	5	1	2	21	54	2	3	4	214	302	291	594	77	287	26	10	275	71	-7	-1	-2	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2962	2587	600	86	23	43	314	714	36	63	26	232	323	333	656	101	302	24	11	300	87	-43	+2	-8	+53	+64	7.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	131	19	5	9	69	157	8	14	6	231	323	329	652	99	301	24	11	300	87	-9	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5788	5037	1145	165	41	85	631	1382	77	135	47	227	323	327	650	100	295	24	11	297	87	-81	+6	-15	+98	+119	13.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	130	19	5	10	71	155	9	15	5	230	326	334	660	104	297	24	11	297	87	-10	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 146 PAwOBA .431 → .313 (−118)K% 15.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.75%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	28.08%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	19.56%
HBP% /PA	3.42%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.39%
Singles /BIP	36.00%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.005	×0.995	24.48%
Doubles /BIP	2.67%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.005	×0.995	1.60%
Triples /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.005	×0.995	2.40%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .431 → .313; ISO .082 → .056; BABIP .427 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Rays · 142 PAwOBA .350 → .243 (−107)K% 17.6% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.61%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.13%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.60%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.99%
Singles /BIP	27.71%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.971	×1.008	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.82%	÷0.989	×0.600	×0.971	×1.008	2.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.971	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.20%	÷1.022	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.56%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .350 → .243; ISO .065 → .038; BABIP .325 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Johnny Edwards'61-'74 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,132 PA	7.7	5,132	81	15	240*	313*	380*	+92	+0	16.7	16.2
/162	664	10	2	+11.9	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 16
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#4Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#5Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.6	3,040	45	64	230	318	332	+54	+32	9.8	8.3
/162	664	10	14	+11.9	+7.0	2.1	pk7: 7
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Santiago Mendoza (OGILVIE)	19	54→59	29→34	54→59	80	219/314/294	75	295	1	2	24%	11%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Aron Estrada 2024 · A	19	47→54	41→50	52→55	54	220/310/327	107	272	6	9	20%	10%	84	+0.2	247/301/365	118	304	11	21	22%	6%	88	+0.5	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→56	37→40	56→65	55	217/314/292	75	284	3	19	23%	11%	78	-0.3	191/275/274	83	293	5	10	33%	10%	59	-1.7	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Hector Osorio 2024 · A	19	44	35→45	51→50	62	200/321/262	62	245	2	15	17%	13%	76	-0.4	216/319/308	92	262	8	12	19%	11%	84	+0.1	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2016 · A	19	51→57	35→50	51→50	48	237/305/292	56	305	2	9	22%	7%	73	-0.6	238/293/326	88	307	6	12	23%	6%	76	-0.4	255/311/393	138	311	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	48	37→45	53→50	53	218/293/303	85	243	3	11	12%	7%	72	-0.7	240/312/325	85	281	5	9	16%	7%	84	+0.1	232/299/348	116	287	12	10	23%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Yoiber Ocopio 2024 · A	19	44	37→40	52→45	57	202/329/281	78	257	4	6	20%	11%	83	+0.1	185/288/262	77	262	5	9	28%	9%	63	-1.4	170/265/248	78	248	6	9	31%	8%	49	-1.0

Santiago Mendoza

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps