Hector Osorio

RF Hickory Crawdads
Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 150 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP40OGV rank#181ETA2028MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKTEX104.286/.461/.3641772—.214/.353/.286
202520ATEX358.251/.398/.33941174—.216/.330/.286
202621A+/ATEX394.295/.415/.543219114—.245/.340/.446
2027PROJMLE22MLBTEX504.249/.341/.4041681120.9
2028PROJ48% MLB23MLBTEX167.253/.345/.421631150.5
2029PROJ65% MLB24MLBTEX263.255/.346/.426941160.8
Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Whiff%97
Z-Con%94
K%93
ISO78
wOBA74
wRC+74
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 8% · didn't stick 62%
CompsAndrew Benintendi (age 22) · Lonnie Chisenhall (age 22) · John Jaso (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†112
AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .338 / .401
PA210
HR7
K%18
BB%10
ISO156
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +3.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+3BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.50.80.91.01.00.80.60.40.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.6$1M+$1.0M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.4$0.9M+$0.2M
2036Arb-2$1M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $4M $9M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL TEX Red — 3929 8100 862 11 276462310772 34348 1521 376 65 — — — — — —
202318 ROKDSL Rangers Blue — 223157 46811 49269 174 293484376860 83326 1222 392 73 — — — — — —
202419 ROKACL Rangers — 10477 22111 21194 71 286461364824 78362 1820 382 72 — — — — — —
202520 AHickory Crawdads — 358283 71544 554314 116 251398339737 88279 1215 342 74 — — — — — —
202621 A+Hub City Spartanburgers — 155131 36408 17234 00 275375489864 214275 1511 376 93 — — — — — —
202621 AHickory Crawdads — 239191 5911113 37278 96 3094415811.022 272301 1115 440 128 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Red — 3931 6100 672 11 194359226585 32239 1815 265 65 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Rangers Blue — 223172 32610 34339 174 186349233581 47201 1515 276 73 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 10484 18111 14284 71 214353286639 71275 2713 274 72 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 358301 65443 376014 116 216330286615 70246 1710 278 74 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEHub City Spartanburgers — 155137 31307 11304 00 226303401704 175228 197 306 93 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 239202 529111 26378 96 257364475840 218257 1511 358 128 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Red — 3931 6100 672 11 194359226585 32250 1815 265 65 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL TEX Red — 3929 8100 862 11 276462310772 34348 1521 376 65 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Rangers Blue — 223172 32610 34339 174 186349233581 47218 1515 276 73 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Rangers Blue — 223157 46811 49269 174 293484376860 83326 1222 392 73 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 10484 18111 14284 71 214353286639 71304 2713 274 72 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWACL Rangers — 10477 22111 21194 71 286461364824 78362 1820 382 72 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 358301 65443 376014 116 216330286615 70256 1710 278 74 — — — — — —
202520 A RAWHickory Crawdads — 358283 71544 554314 116 251398339737 88279 1215 342 74 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 394340 8312118 366712 96 244338444782 200251 179 338 115 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 394322 9515121 545012 96 295415543958 248290 1314 415 115 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL TEX Red — 3931 6100 672 11 194359226585 32239 1815 265 65 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Rangers Blue — 223178 32610 34339 174 180349225574 45201 1515 276 73 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 10485 18111 14284 71 212353282635 71275 2713 274 72 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 358304 65443 376014 116 214330283612 69246 1710 278 74 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 394343 8312118 366712 96 242338440778 198246 179 338 115 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEACL Rangers — 10485 18111 14284 71 212353282635 71275 2713 274 72 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEHickory Crawdads — 358304 65443 376014 116 214330283612 69246 1710 278 74 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 394343 8312118 366712 96 242338440778 198246 179 338 115 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLETEX 0% 504437 10915316 498913 84 249341404745 156275 1810 334 112 +7 +0 -1 -5 +11 0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLETEX 48% 345301 7510211 33608 63 251343412754 161277 1710 337 115 +6 +0 -1 -4 +7 0.9
202924 MLB MLETEX 65% 406354 9013214 397110 73 253344416760 164278 1710 339 116 +8 +0 -1 -4 +9 1.2
203025 MLB MLETEX 73% 439383 9714215 437810 74 253343418761 165279 1810 340 116 +8 -0 -0 -5 +10 1.3
203126 MLB MLETEX 76% 456399 10015215 448210 84 252342417759 165279 1810 339 115 +8 +0 -0 -5 +10 1.3
203227 MLB MLETEX 76% 462404 10115215 458510 74 251340414754 163280 1810 337 114 +8 -0 -0 -5 +10 1.2
203328 MLB MLETEX 76% 460403 10015215 448510 64 249338409748 160279 1810 334 112 +7 -0 -1 -5 +10 1.0
203429 MLB MLETEX 74% 452396 9714214 438510 54 247336403739 156278 1910 331 110 +5 -1 -2 -5 +10 0.8
203530 MLB MLETEX 73% 440386 9514214 42849 54 244332396728 152276 1910 326 107 +4 -1 -3 -5 +10 0.5
203631 MLB MLETEX 73% 425373 9013213 40839 37 240328386714 146274 209 321 103 +2 -2 -3 -5 +9 0.1
203732 MLB MLETEX 72% 402354 8312211 37808 220 235322373695 139270 209 313 98 -1 -8 -4 -4 +9 -0.8
202823 MLB CTXTEX 48% 167145 37516 16294 31 253345421766 168277 1710 342 115 +3 +0 -0 -2 +4 0.5
202924 MLB CTXTEX 65% 263229 58819 26466 42 255346426772 171279 1710 344 116 +5 +0 -0 -3 +6 0.8
203025 MLB CTXTEX 73% 318277 7210212 31567 53 255345427773 172279 1810 344 116 +6 -0 -0 -3 +7 0.9
203126 MLB CTXTEX 76% 347302 7811213 34628 63 255344427771 172280 1810 343 115 +6 +0 -0 -4 +8 1.0
203227 MLB CTXTEX 76% 351306 7811213 34648 63 253342423766 170280 1810 341 114 +6 +0 -0 -4 +8 1.0
203328 MLB CTXTEX 76% 350306 7711212 34657 53 251340419759 167279 1910 338 112 +5 -0 -1 -4 +8 0.8
203429 MLB CTXTEX 74% 336294 7310211 32637 43 249338412750 163278 1910 335 110 +4 -0 -1 -4 +7 0.6
203530 MLB CTXTEX 73% 322281 7110211 31627 33 246334404738 158277 1910 330 107 +3 -1 -2 -3 +7 0.4
203631 MLB CTXTEX 73% 309271 659110 29606 25 242329394724 152274 199 324 103 +1 -2 -2 -3 +7 0.1
203732 MLB CTXTEX 72% 291256 60819 27586 115 237323381705 145271 209 317 98 -1 -6 -3 -3 +6 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 30542667 6699316106 29456566 3941 251340417757 166280 1910 336 106 +39 -9 -11 -33 +66 5.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650568 14320323 6312014 89 252342419761 167280 1810 336 106 +8 -2 -2 -7 +14 1.1
Career— MLE — 56154864 117716528166 5571025140 10477 242337390727 148272 1810 325 106 +58 -12 -16 -48 +97 8.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650563 13619319 6411916 129 242335387723 146273 1810 325 106 +8 -2 -2 -7 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 239 PAwOBA .433 → .358 (−75)K% 11.3% → 15.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.30%÷1.000×1.360——15.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.48%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01510.84%
HBP% /PA3.35%—×0.780—×1.0152.65%
Singles /BIP20.73%÷1.000×0.920×0.952×1.01518.43%
Doubles /BIP6.71%÷1.000×0.830×0.952×1.0155.38%
Triples /BIP0.61%÷1.000×0.910×0.952×1.0150.54%
Home runs /BIP7.93%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0156.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .433 → .358; ISO .272 → .229; BABIP .301 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 155 PAwOBA .371 → .306 (−65)K% 14.8% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.84%÷1.000×1.310——19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.97%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0276.76%
HBP% /PA2.58%—×0.770—×1.0272.04%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷1.000×0.870×0.950×1.02718.86%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.780×0.950×1.0272.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP7.41%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0276.69%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .306; ISO .214 → .194; BABIP .275 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 358 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−60)K% 12.0% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.01%÷0.981×1.360——16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.36%÷1.051×0.690—×1.03010.39%
HBP% /PA3.91%—×0.780—×1.0303.14%
Singles /BIP24.17%÷1.002×0.920×0.950×1.03021.71%
Doubles /BIP2.08%÷1.123×0.830×0.950×1.0301.51%
Triples /BIP1.67%÷1.039×0.910×0.950×1.0301.43%
Home runs /BIP1.67%÷1.037×0.800—×1.0301.32%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .279 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 104 PAwOBA .378 → .274 (−104)K% 18.3% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.27%÷0.993×1.440——26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.19%÷0.971×0.620—×1.00812.99%
HBP% /PA3.85%—×0.720—×1.0082.79%
Singles /BIP32.76%÷1.014×0.820×0.950×1.00825.34%
Doubles /BIP1.72%÷1.011×0.720×0.950×1.0081.18%
Triples /BIP1.72%÷1.150×0.720×0.950×1.0081.03%
Home runs /BIP1.72%÷1.040×0.780—×1.0081.30%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .378 → .274; ISO .078 → .056; BABIP .362 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 223 PAwOBA .398 → .276 (−122)K% 11.7% → 14.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.66%÷0.970×1.220——14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.97%÷1.024×0.700—×1.00815.14%
HBP% /PA4.04%—×0.700—×1.0082.85%
Singles /BIP27.48%÷1.069×0.680×0.955×1.00816.81%
Doubles /BIP6.11%÷0.901×0.600×0.955×1.0083.91%
Triples /BIP0.76%÷1.036×0.600×0.955×1.0080.43%
Home runs /BIP0.76%÷1.180×0.470—×1.0080.31%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 114, 2B 80, 3B 107, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .398 → .276; ISO .083 → .054; BABIP .326 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL TEX Red · 39 PAwOBA .368 → .265 (−104)K% 15.4% → 18.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.38%÷0.995×1.220——18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.51%÷1.016×0.700—×1.02214.45%
HBP% /PA5.13%—×0.700—×1.0223.67%
Singles /BIP30.43%÷0.996×0.680—×1.02221.25%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷1.009×0.600—×1.0222.64%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.600—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.053×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .368 → .265; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .348 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).