Hector Osorio
RF Hickory Crawdads| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKTEX | 104 | .286/.461/.364 | 1 | 7 | 72 | — | .214/.353/.286 |
| 2025 | 20 | ATEX | 358 | .251/.398/.339 | 4 | 11 | 74 | — | .216/.330/.286 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ATEX | 394 | .295/.415/.543 | 21 | 9 | 114 | — | .245/.340/.446 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTEX | 504 | .249/.341/.404 | 16 | 8 | 112 | 0.9 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBTEX | 167 | .253/.345/.421 | 6 | 3 | 115 | 0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 24 | MLBTEX | 263 | .255/.346/.426 | 9 | 4 | 116 | 0.8 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL TEX Red | — | 39 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 462 | 310 | 772 | 34 | 348 | 15 | 21 | 376 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 223 | 157 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 49 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 293 | 484 | 376 | 860 | 83 | 326 | 12 | 22 | 392 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 77 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 286 | 461 | 364 | 824 | 78 | 362 | 18 | 20 | 382 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 283 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 43 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 251 | 398 | 339 | 737 | 88 | 279 | 12 | 15 | 342 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | — | 155 | 131 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 375 | 489 | 864 | 214 | 275 | 15 | 11 | 376 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 239 | 191 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 309 | 441 | 581 | 1.022 | 272 | 301 | 11 | 15 | 440 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 39 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 359 | 226 | 585 | 32 | 239 | 18 | 15 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 223 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 186 | 349 | 233 | 581 | 47 | 201 | 15 | 15 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 214 | 353 | 286 | 639 | 71 | 275 | 27 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 301 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 60 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 216 | 330 | 286 | 615 | 70 | 246 | 17 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hub City Spartanburgers | — | 155 | 137 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 303 | 401 | 704 | 175 | 228 | 19 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 239 | 202 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 257 | 364 | 475 | 840 | 218 | 257 | 15 | 11 | 358 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 39 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 359 | 226 | 585 | 32 | 250 | 18 | 15 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL TEX Red | — | 39 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 462 | 310 | 772 | 34 | 348 | 15 | 21 | 376 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 223 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 186 | 349 | 233 | 581 | 47 | 218 | 15 | 15 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 223 | 157 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 49 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 293 | 484 | 376 | 860 | 83 | 326 | 12 | 22 | 392 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 214 | 353 | 286 | 639 | 71 | 304 | 27 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 77 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 286 | 461 | 364 | 824 | 78 | 362 | 18 | 20 | 382 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 301 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 60 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 216 | 330 | 286 | 615 | 70 | 256 | 17 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 283 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 43 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 251 | 398 | 339 | 737 | 88 | 279 | 12 | 15 | 342 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 340 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 244 | 338 | 444 | 782 | 200 | 251 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 322 | 95 | 15 | 1 | 21 | 54 | 50 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 295 | 415 | 543 | 958 | 248 | 290 | 13 | 14 | 415 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Red | — | 39 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 359 | 226 | 585 | 32 | 239 | 18 | 15 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers Blue | — | 223 | 178 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 180 | 349 | 225 | 574 | 45 | 201 | 15 | 15 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 212 | 353 | 282 | 635 | 71 | 275 | 27 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 304 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 60 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 214 | 330 | 283 | 612 | 69 | 246 | 17 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 343 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 242 | 338 | 440 | 778 | 198 | 246 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 104 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 212 | 353 | 282 | 635 | 71 | 275 | 27 | 13 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 358 | 304 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 60 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 214 | 330 | 283 | 612 | 69 | 246 | 17 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 343 | 83 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 242 | 338 | 440 | 778 | 198 | 246 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TEX | 0% | 504 | 437 | 109 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 89 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 249 | 341 | 404 | 745 | 156 | 275 | 18 | 10 | 334 | 112 | +7 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +11 | 0.9 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TEX | 48% | 345 | 301 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 60 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 251 | 343 | 412 | 754 | 161 | 277 | 17 | 10 | 337 | 115 | +6 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TEX | 65% | 406 | 354 | 90 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 71 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 253 | 344 | 416 | 760 | 164 | 278 | 17 | 10 | 339 | 116 | +8 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TEX | 73% | 439 | 383 | 97 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 78 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 253 | 343 | 418 | 761 | 165 | 279 | 18 | 10 | 340 | 116 | +8 | -0 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 76% | 456 | 399 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 44 | 82 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 252 | 342 | 417 | 759 | 165 | 279 | 18 | 10 | 339 | 115 | +8 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 76% | 462 | 404 | 101 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 45 | 85 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 251 | 340 | 414 | 754 | 163 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 337 | 114 | +8 | -0 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 76% | 460 | 403 | 100 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 44 | 85 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 249 | 338 | 409 | 748 | 160 | 279 | 18 | 10 | 334 | 112 | +7 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 74% | 452 | 396 | 97 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 85 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 247 | 336 | 403 | 739 | 156 | 278 | 19 | 10 | 331 | 110 | +5 | -1 | -2 | -5 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | TEX | 73% | 440 | 386 | 95 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 84 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 244 | 332 | 396 | 728 | 152 | 276 | 19 | 10 | 326 | 107 | +4 | -1 | -3 | -5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | TEX | 73% | 425 | 373 | 90 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 83 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 240 | 328 | 386 | 714 | 146 | 274 | 20 | 9 | 321 | 103 | +2 | -2 | -3 | -5 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | TEX | 72% | 402 | 354 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 80 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 235 | 322 | 373 | 695 | 139 | 270 | 20 | 9 | 313 | 98 | -1 | -8 | -4 | -4 | +9 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TEX | 48% | 167 | 145 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 345 | 421 | 766 | 168 | 277 | 17 | 10 | 342 | 115 | +3 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TEX | 65% | 263 | 229 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 46 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 255 | 346 | 426 | 772 | 171 | 279 | 17 | 10 | 344 | 116 | +5 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TEX | 73% | 318 | 277 | 72 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 56 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 255 | 345 | 427 | 773 | 172 | 279 | 18 | 10 | 344 | 116 | +6 | -0 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 76% | 347 | 302 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 62 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 255 | 344 | 427 | 771 | 172 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 343 | 115 | +6 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 76% | 351 | 306 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 64 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 253 | 342 | 423 | 766 | 170 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 341 | 114 | +6 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 76% | 350 | 306 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 65 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 251 | 340 | 419 | 759 | 167 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 338 | 112 | +5 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 74% | 336 | 294 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 63 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 249 | 338 | 412 | 750 | 163 | 278 | 19 | 10 | 335 | 110 | +4 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | TEX | 73% | 322 | 281 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 62 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 246 | 334 | 404 | 738 | 158 | 277 | 19 | 10 | 330 | 107 | +3 | -1 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | TEX | 73% | 309 | 271 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 60 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 242 | 329 | 394 | 724 | 152 | 274 | 19 | 9 | 324 | 103 | +1 | -2 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | TEX | 72% | 291 | 256 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 237 | 323 | 381 | 705 | 145 | 271 | 20 | 9 | 317 | 98 | -1 | -6 | -3 | -3 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3054 | 2667 | 669 | 93 | 16 | 106 | 294 | 565 | 66 | 39 | 41 | 251 | 340 | 417 | 757 | 166 | 280 | 19 | 10 | 336 | 106 | +39 | -9 | -11 | -33 | +66 | 5.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 568 | 143 | 20 | 3 | 23 | 63 | 120 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 252 | 342 | 419 | 761 | 167 | 280 | 18 | 10 | 336 | 106 | +8 | -2 | -2 | -7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5615 | 4864 | 1177 | 165 | 28 | 166 | 557 | 1025 | 140 | 104 | 77 | 242 | 337 | 390 | 727 | 148 | 272 | 18 | 10 | 325 | 106 | +58 | -12 | -16 | -48 | +97 | 8.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 563 | 136 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 119 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 242 | 335 | 387 | 723 | 146 | 273 | 18 | 10 | 325 | 106 | +8 | -2 | -2 | -7 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AHickory Crawdads · 239 PAwOBA .433 → .358 (−75)K% 11.3% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 15.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×1.015 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .433 → .358; ISO .272 → .229; BABIP .301 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 155 PAwOBA .371 → .306 (−65)K% 14.8% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 6.69% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .371 → .306; ISO .214 → .194; BABIP .275 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AHickory Crawdads · 358 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−60)K% 12.0% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.01% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.36% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.91% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.123 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .088 → .074; BABIP .279 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 104 PAwOBA .378 → .274 (−104)K% 18.3% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.27% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.19% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 12.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.76% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .378 → .274; ISO .078 → .056; BABIP .362 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rangers Blue · 223 PAwOBA .398 → .276 (−122)K% 11.7% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.66% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.97% | ÷1.024 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 15.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.04% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.48% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 16.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷0.901 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.036 | ×0.600 | ×0.955 | ×1.008 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.180 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.31% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 114, 2B 80, 3B 107, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .398 → .276; ISO .083 → .054; BABIP .326 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL TEX Red · 39 PAwOBA .368 → .265 (−104)K% 15.4% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 14.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.13% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.009 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 2.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .368 → .265; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .348 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).