Gavin Lux — OGILVIE

Gavin LuxLF Durham Bulls

INJURED · Injured 10-Day (D10)

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 5.663 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.0 · 2027

wRC+†vL 377vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .326 / .369

PA225

HR4

K%23

BB%10

xwOBA.299

Barrel%3.6%

MLB%45%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40→40

SPD

55→55

EYE

56↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

Barrel%

143.6

xwOBA

420.299

Avg EV

3988.3

Whiff%

790.079

Chase%

900.240

Speed

6027.9

Bat Spd

3369.6

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	253	234	50	9	3	0	17	73	1	2	0	.214	.270	.278	.548	.064	.309	29	7	.248	48	-15	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.7
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	501	452	99	11	7	6	38	113	3	27	10	.219	.284	.314	.598	.095	.275	23	8	.264	60	-23	+1	+0	+2	+14	-0.5
2018	20	A+	2 teams	524	483	122	20	5	12	37	122	2	13	9	.253	.308	.389	.698	.137	.313	23	7	.305	92	-5	-1	+0	+2	+15	1.1
2019	21	AA	3 teams	605	552	149	23	8	24	49	158	0	12	6	.270	.329	.471	.800	.201	.334	26	8	.342	120	+13	+0	+1	+2	+17	3.4
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	.175	.246	.349	.596	.175	.195	28	9	.256	54	-4	+0	+1	+0	+2	-0.0
2021	23	MLB	2 teams	455	405	97	15	2	7	45	102	3	4	1	.240	.320	.338	.658	.099	.302	22	10	.292	82	-9	+0	-1	+5	+13	0.8
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	471	421	115	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	.273	.346	.397	.743	.124	.337	20	10	.330	111	+6	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.3
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	487	439	113	25	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	.257	.328	.392	.720	.134	.321	23	9	.316	100	+0	+0	-2	+2	+14	1.4
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	503	446	116	26	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	.260	.343	.361	.704	.101	.338	23	11	.316	100	-0	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	37	31	3	2	0	0	6	12	0	0	1	.097	.243	.161	.405	.065	.158	32	16	.183	-2	-4	-0	+0	+0	+1	-0.4
ROS	28	MLB	TB	188	166	40	9	1	3	20	44	0	1	1	.241	.323	.361	.684	.120	.305	23	11	.307	93	-2	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.4
TOT	28	MLB	TB	225	197	43	11	1	3	26	56	0	1	2	.218	.309	.330	.639	.112	.288	25	12	.286	77	-6	-1	-1	+1	+6	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 54%	TB	489	431	101	23	2	7	54	103	1	3	2	.234	.321	.346	.667	.111	.294	21	11	.308	94	-3	-0	-3	+2	+14	0.9
2028	30	MLB 65%	TB	477	420	99	23	2	7	53	102	1	2	1	.236	.323	.350	.673	.114	.293	21	11	.305	91	-5	+0	-4	+2	+14	0.7
2029	31	MLB 74%	TB	462	407	95	22	2	6	51	101	1	0	0	.233	.320	.342	.662	.108	.291	22	11	.301	88	-6	+0	-4	+2	+13	0.4
2030	32	MLB 82%	TB	443	390	89	20	2	6	49	99	1	0	0	.228	.316	.336	.652	.108	.290	22	11	.296	85	-8	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.1
2031	33	MLB 89%	TB	413	363	83	19	2	5	46	95	1	0	0	.229	.317	.333	.650	.105	.288	23	11	.291	81	-9	+0	-6	+1	+12	-0.2
2032	34	MLB 94%	TB	368	325	71	16	1	4	40	88	0	0	0	.218	.304	.311	.615	.092	.286	24	11	.284	76	-10	+0	-6	+1	+10	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6708	5997	1450	283	48	111	652	1538	16	78	34	.242	.318	.361	.678	.119	.306	23	10	.302	90	-79	+2	-37	+20	+190	9.8
/ 162G	—			650	581	141	27	5	11	63	149	2	8	3	.243	.319	.363	.682	.120	.307	23	10	.302	90	-8	+0	-4	+2	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	253	223	66	13	5	0	28	51	1	2	0	.296	.377	.399	.776	.103	.382	20	11	.350	126	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.5
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	501	434	106	14	8	7	56	88	3	27	10	.244	.335	.362	.696	.118	.288	18	11	.312	97	-2	+1	—	—	+14	1.4
2018	20	AA	Tulsa Drillers	120	105	34	4	1	4	14	20	1	2	2	.324	.408	.495	.904	.171	.370	17	12	.402	166	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.2
2018	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	404	358	116	23	7	11	43	68	1	11	7	.324	.398	.520	.918	.196	.374	17	11	.402	166	+30	-1	—	—	+11	4.2
2019	21	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	82	75	18	4	1	2	7	24	0	2	0	.240	.305	.400	.705	.160	.327	29	9	.314	99	-0	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.6
2019	21	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	232	199	78	18	4	13	33	42	0	3	3	.392	.478	.719	1.197	.327	.451	18	14	.511	249	+39	-1	—	—	+7	4.6
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	291	259	81	7	4	13	28	60	0	7	3	.313	.380	.521	.901	.208	.358	21	10	.390	157	+19	+0	—	—	+8	2.8
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	.175	.246	.349	.596	.175	.195	28	9	.267	63	-3	+0	+1	+0	+2	0.0
2021	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	381	335	81	12	4	7	41	83	3	4	1	.242	.330	.364	.694	.122	.300	22	11	.314	99	-1	+0	-1	+5	+11	1.5
2021	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	74	68	19	4	0	1	6	15	0	0	0	.279	.338	.382	.720	.103	.346	20	8	.325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	471	421	116	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	.276	.348	.399	.747	.124	.341	20	10	.334	114	+7	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.5
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	487	439	110	24	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	.251	.322	.383	.704	.132	.312	23	9	.316	100	+0	+0	-2	+2	+14	1.4
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	503	446	120	28	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	.269	.351	.374	.725	.105	.351	23	11	.329	110	+6	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1993	1779	456	90	16	33	201	445	5	20	5	.256	.334	.381	.714	.124	.323	22	10	.322	104	+10	+2	-8	+5	+56	6.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Lux (OGILVIE)	28	50	40	55	60	.249/.326/.369	.121	.316	4	2	23%	10%	99	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2021 · MLB	28	48→53	49→50	50	49	.243/.307/.396	.153	.283	16	9	20%	8%	98	+1.6	.221/.283/.333	.112	.291	12	8	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.187/.257/.236	.049	.270	3	3	29%	8%	31	-0.7
✕Ben Gamel 2020 · MLB	28	56→63	44→50	49→50	51	.264/.336/.390	.126	.337	10	9	23%	9%	108	+2.3	.246/.333/.385	.139	.327	12	7	26%	11%	106	+2.2	.235/.329/.378	.143	.305	15	6	26%	12%	97	+0.9
✕Larry Bigbie 2006 · MLB	28	54→56	47→50	48→50	50	.264/.325/.404	.140	.319	15	10	22%	8%	107	+2.2	.247/.309/.366	.119	.318	11	9	24%	8%	91	+1.1	.251/.312/.354	.103	.331	7	7	25%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Greg Garcia 2018 · MLB	28	54→53	39→40	48→50	56	.251/.342/.338	.087	.314	5	9	20%	11%	98	+1.6	.240/.338/.340	.100	.304	8	6	21%	12%	97	+1.5	.237/.345/.337	.100	.299	7	3	21%	13%	98	+0.8
✕Ramón Flores 2018 · MLB	26	51→57	42→45	51→50	53	.248/.319/.351	.103	.294	9	9	19%	9%	91	+1.1	.235/.301/.340	.105	.290	10	10	21%	8%	80	+0.4	.219/.283/.304	.085	.273	8	6	22%	8%	62	-0.3
✕Dominic Smith 2023 · MLB	28	49→55	48→50	46→40	46	.244/.308/.391	.146	.294	15	5	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.242/.309/.368	.126	.289	13	4	20%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.312/.368	.125	.289	13	4	20%	8%	91	+0.9
✕Bronson Sardinha 2011 · AAA	28	51→53	47→50	47→50	50	.250/.315/.394	.144	.303	13	9	21%	8%	101	+1.8	.255/.325/.401	.146	.310	15	11	21%	9%	107	+2.2	.269/.340/.404	.135	.322	16	10	20%	9%	110	+1.3
✕Todd Self 2006 · MLB	27	47→50	44→45	49→45	47	.228/.300/.348	.121	.310	11	7	29%	9%	82	+0.5	.224/.296/.340	.116	.307	12	6	28%	9%	79	+0.3	.241/.317/.366	.125	.307	14	4	24%	9%	94	+1.1
●Robbie Grossman 2018 · MLB	28	49→57	46→45	44→50	58	.241/.337/.370	.129	.297	13	8	22%	12%	104	+2.0	.254/.349/.383	.129	.306	11	7	19%	12%	112	+2.6	.242/.350/.402	.161	.287	17	17	21%	13%	111	+1.9
✕Shane Peterson 2016 · MLB	28	51→58	43→50	50	46	.244/.306/.360	.115	.330	10	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	.240/.287/.377	.137	.319	14	10	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.214/.257/.348	.134	.291	13	8	30%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Daric Barton 2014 · MLB	28	49→56	41→45	46→45	61	.232/.333/.335	.103	.274	8	5	18%	13%	94	+1.3	.223/.311/.346	.123	.256	13	3	18%	10%	88	+0.9	.204/.295/.341	.137	.227	17	1	19%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Cooper Hummel 2023 · MLB	28	46→49	49→50	49→55	52	.228/.319/.385	.156	.300	15	10	28%	11%	100	+1.7	.221/.323/.366	.145	.303	12	18	28%	12%	98	+1.6	.217/.330/.365	.148	.295	13	19	28%	12%	98	+1.1
✕Matthew den Dekker 2016 · MLB	28	50→58	45→50	51→55	46	.242/.300/.372	.130	.303	11	14	24%	7%	88	+0.9	.208/.263/.335	.127	.280	13	17	29%	6%	63	-0.8	.192/.243/.320	.128	.265	13	18	32%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Nick Martini 2019 · MLB	29	52→59	40→55	52→45	52	.248/.324/.346	.099	.313	7	7	22%	9%	92	+1.2	.248/.332/.361	.113	.317	10	5	23%	10%	99	+1.7	.239/.329/.380	.142	.297	15	1	23%	10%	100	+1.3
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2011 · MLB	28	50→54	44→50	51→50	49	.245/.303/.363	.118	.294	10	15	20%	8%	87	+0.8	.225/.290/.353	.128	.271	12	10	21%	8%	79	+0.3	.216/.288/.345	.130	.258	13	8	21%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Matt Beaty 2021 · MLB	28	50→58	48→50	51→45	48	.248/.307/.396	.148	.272	15	7	16%	6%	98	+1.6	.243/.325/.362	.119	.291	13	6	20%	7%	98	+1.6	.238/.331/.338	.100	.292	11	2	21%	7%	92	+0.5
●Yonder Alonso 2015 · MLB	28	53→57	44→55	51→45	53	.258/.321/.377	.119	.287	11	8	14%	8%	98	+1.6	.259/.330/.391	.132	.290	13	6	15%	9%	106	+2.2	.253/.331/.423	.170	.287	21	2	19%	10%	110	+2.2
✕Ryan Sweeney 2014 · MLB	29	53→61	44→45	50→45	51	.256/.315/.387	.131	.297	10	4	17%	8%	98	+1.6	.245/.302/.374	.129	.279	13	5	17%	7%	89	+1.0	.243/.296/.330	.088	.275	9	0	15%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	47	42→45	46→45	52	.228/.305/.342	.113	.273	9	8	19%	9%	83	+0.6	.238/.305/.324	.086	.294	6	9	20%	7%	78	+0.2	.241/.307/.302	.061	.302	2	7	19%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Vimael Machín 2022 · MLB	28	46→55	43→45	49→45	49	.226/.291/.341	.115	.272	10	6	20%	8%	76	+0.1	.234/.300/.334	.100	.282	8	4	19%	8%	79	+0.3	.243/.302/.358	.114	.288	11	7	19%	7%	83	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)