Gavin Lux — OGILVIE

Gavin LuxLF Durham Bulls

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 5.663 · Ctrl thru 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 218 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 1786vR 112

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .329 / .359

PA218

HR3

K%24

BB%11

BABIP321

ISO115

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

718.8%

xwOBA

520.311

POWER40

Barrel%

275.2

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

3369.6

EYE60

Chase%

7926.0%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 990 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

113

877

—

wRC+

113

▶▶R

wOBA

208

333

▶▶R

ISO

020

131

▶▶R

BABIP

258

340

▶▶R

31.9%

21.4%

▶▶R

BB%

8.8%

10.3%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.3M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	253	234	50	9	3	0	17	73	1	2	0	214	270	278	548	64	309	29	7	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	253	223	66	13	5	0	28	51	1	2	0	296	377	399	776	103	382	20	11	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	455	101	11	7	6	35	122	3	27	10	222	282	316	598	95	286	24	7	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	434	106	14	8	7	56	88	3	27	10	244	335	362	696	118	288	18	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	2 teams	—	524	485	119	19	5	11	35	128	2	13	9	245	299	373	672	128	310	24	7	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	2 teams	—	524	463	150	27	8	15	57	88	2	13	9	324	400	514	914	190	373	17	11	402	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA	3 teams	—	605	554	149	23	8	25	47	162	0	12	6	269	326	475	801	206	334	27	8	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA	3 teams	—	605	533	177	29	9	28	68	126	0	12	6	332	408	578	986	246	389	21	11	426	184	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	273	67	-3	+0	+1	+0	+2	0.1
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	267	63	-3	+0	+1	+0	+2	0.0
2021	23	MLB	2 teams	—	455	405	102	16	4	8	45	101	3	4	1	252	331	370	701	119	315	22	10	310	95	-2	+0	-1	+5	+13	1.5
2021	23	MLB	2 teams	—	455	403	100	16	4	8	47	98	3	4	1	248	331	367	698	119	308	22	10	316	100	+0	+0	-1	+5	+13	1.7
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	119	21	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	283	355	409	763	126	350	20	10	338	117	+9	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.7
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	116	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	276	348	399	747	124	341	20	10	334	114	+7	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.5
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	114	25	2	11	44	110	2	5	2	260	330	401	731	141	322	23	9	321	104	+2	+0	-3	+2	+14	1.5
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	110	24	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	251	322	383	704	132	312	23	9	316	100	+0	+0	-3	+2	+14	1.3
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	118	27	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	265	347	368	714	103	345	23	11	320	103	+2	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.3
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	120	28	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	351	374	725	105	351	23	11	329	110	+6	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	119	102	21	4	0	1	17	35	0	2	2	206	319	275	594	69	303	29	14	271	66	-5	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	119	94	21	4	0	1	25	29	0	2	2	223	387	298	684	74	312	24	21	329	110	+1	-0	+0	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	28	AAA	TB	45%	218	192	47	9	2	3	24	53	0	2	1	245	329	359	688	115	322	24	11	314	98	-0	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.5
ROS	28	MLB	TB	45%	98	87	21	4	1	1	11	24	0	1	1	241	327	345	671	103	326	24	11	314	99	-0	-0	-1	+0	+3	0.2
FULL	28	AAA	TB	—	217	189	42	8	1	2	28	59	0	3	3	222	323	307	629	85	312	27	13	291	81	-5	-1	-1	+1	+6	0.1
TOT	28	AAA	TB	—	337	294	68	13	2	4	41	88	0	4	3	231	325	330	655	99	315	26	12	299	87	-5	-0	-1	+1	+10	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TB	100%	489	430	105	21	3	7	55	120	1	4	2	244	331	356	687	112	322	25	11	312	97	-2	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.0
2027	29	MLB	TB	100%	489	430	106	20	4	6	55	120	1	4	2	247	333	353	687	107	326	25	11	313	97	-1	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2580	2296	583	114	21	40	267	589	6	25	8	254	333	374	707	120	324	23	10	320	103	+8	+2	-14	+7	+73	7.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	147	29	5	10	67	148	2	6	2	254	334	374	708	119	324	23	10	320	103	+2	+0	-3	+2	+18	2.0
Career	—			—	4575	4124	1035	183	43	85	411	1097	12	78	33	251	321	378	699	127	320	24	9	309	94	-29	+2	-15	+12	+130	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	147	26	6	12	58	156	2	11	5	251	320	377	698	126	321	24	9	309	94	-4	+0	-2	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	253	223	66	13	5	0	28	51	1	2	0	296	377	399	776	103	382	20	11	350	126	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.5
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	434	106	14	8	7	56	88	3	27	10	244	335	362	696	118	288	18	11	312	97	-2	+1	—	—	+14	1.4
2018	20	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	120	105	34	4	1	4	14	20	1	2	2	324	408	495	904	171	370	17	12	402	166	+9	-0	—	—	+3	1.2
2018	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	404	358	116	23	7	11	43	68	1	11	7	324	398	520	918	196	374	17	11	402	166	+30	-1	—	—	+11	4.2
2019	21	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	82	75	18	4	1	2	7	24	0	2	0	240	305	400	705	160	327	29	9	314	99	-0	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.6
2019	21	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	232	199	78	18	4	13	33	42	0	3	3	392	478	719	1.197	327	451	18	14	511	249	+39	-1	—	—	+7	4.6
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	291	259	81	7	4	13	28	60	0	7	3	313	380	521	901	208	358	21	10	390	157	+19	+0	—	—	+8	2.8
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	267	63	-3	+0	+1	+0	+2	0.0
2021	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	381	335	81	12	4	7	41	83	3	4	1	242	330	364	694	122	300	22	11	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+5	+11	1.5
2021	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	74	68	19	4	0	1	6	15	0	0	0	279	338	382	720	103	346	20	8	325	107	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	116	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	276	348	399	747	124	341	20	10	334	114	+7	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.5
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	110	24	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	251	322	383	704	132	312	23	9	316	100	+0	+0	-3	+2	+14	1.3
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	120	28	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	351	374	725	105	351	23	11	329	110	+6	+0	-8	-5	+14	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1993	1779	456	90	16	33	201	445	5	20	5	256	334	381	714	124	323	22	10	322	104	+10	+2	-9	+5	+56	6.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brian Andersonlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,522 PA	7	2,522	66	14	252	336	404	-1	-0	10.0	10.0
	/162	664	17	4	252	336	404	-0.1	-0.0	2.6	pk7: 10
#2Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#3Rob Mackowiaklast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,618 PA	8	2,618	64	49	259	332	405	-11	-3	8.7	8.9
	/162	664	16	12	259	332	405	-2.7	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 9
#4Casey McGeheelast yr '16 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,061 PA	7	3,061	67	7	258	318	386	+3	+7	8.3	8.3
	/162	664	15	2	258	318	386	+0.7	+1.4	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Damion Easleylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	9	2,995	77	33	247	323	396	-2	-15	7.8	8.3
	/162	664	17	7	247	323	396	-0.5	-3.3	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,634	42	26	256	332	378	+2	-9	7.9	7.9
	/162	664	11	6	256	332	378	+0.6	-2.3	2.0	pk7: 8
#6Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Lux (OGILVIE)	28	50	40	55	60	231/325/330	99	315	4	4	26%	12%	87	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Garcia 2018 · MLB	28	54	39→40	47→50	57	251/345/338	88	317	5	8	21%	11%	99	+1.7	240/338/342	102	304	8	6	21%	12%	98	+1.6	239/346/339	100	301	8	3	21%	13%	97	+0.7
✕Nick Martini 2019 · MLB	29	54→60	41→55	51→45	53	254/332/355	101	321	7	7	22%	10%	98	+1.6	247/332/361	114	315	10	5	23%	10%	99	+1.7	238/328/378	140	296	15	1	23%	10%	99	+1.2
✕Shane Peterson 2016 · MLB	28	53→60	44→50	49→50	46	250/311/370	120	338	10	7	28%	8%	92	+1.2	236/283/374	138	313	14	10	28%	6%	82	+0.5	208/251/336	129	281	13	8	30%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Eric Campbell 2015 · MLB	28	54→57	43→45	49→50	51	258/333/376	117	322	10	11	22%	9%	104	+2.0	240/327/350	110	299	10	13	21%	10%	95	+1.4	243/339/350	107	298	9	12	20%	11%	97	+1.0
✕Todd Self 2006 · MLB	27	47→51	44→45	48→45	47	227/300/347	120	310	11	7	29%	9%	82	+0.5	227/298/345	118	309	12	6	28%	9%	81	+0.4	247/320/374	127	313	14	4	24%	9%	98	+1.3
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	47	42→45	46→45	53	227/309/340	113	273	9	8	19%	9%	85	+0.7	234/301/318	84	292	5	9	20%	7%	75	-0.0	236/302/296	60	298	2	7	20%	7%	66	-0.2
✕Jose Munoz 2007 · AAA	28	52→49	43→45	44→50	51	252/321/357	105	302	10	9	20%	9%	94	+1.3	248/322/365	117	293	10	11	18%	10%	95	+1.4	254/331/376	122	296	10	11	17%	10%	99	+1.0
✕Jason Conti 2003 · MLB	28	51→41	44→45	50	47	245/305/375	130	309	10	11	23%	8%	92	+1.2	229/284/359	130	302	13	7	27%	7%	79	+0.3	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Ben Gamel 2020 · MLB	28	56→63	45→50	49→50	51	267/342/400	133	344	10	9	24%	10%	113	+2.6	247/334/390	143	329	13	7	26%	11%	108	+2.3	235/330/374	138	308	13	7	26%	12%	99	+1.1
✕Nomar Mazara 2023 · MLB	28	51	44→55	45→40	47	245/308/366	121	316	12	3	25%	8%	91	+1.1	238/306/364	126	305	13	5	25%	9%	89	+1.0	223/298/322	99	286	11	0	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Bijan Rademacher 2018 · AAA	27	52→47	45	44→45	50	253/317/376	123	308	12	5	21%	8%	96	+1.5	221/272/307	86	281	8	6	23%	6%	59	-1.1	197/243/239	42	254	3	3	23%	5%	27	-2.1
✕Lonnie Chisenhall 2017 · MLB	28	53→56	46→55	52→45	46	259/307/396	137	302	12	7	19%	6%	98	+1.6	265/325/427	162	313	16	8	20%	7%	113	+2.6	282/351/470	187	330	20	5	20%	8%	130	+1.4
✕Ramón Flores 2018 · MLB	26	52→58	42→45	51→50	53	252/323/356	104	299	9	10	18%	9%	94	+1.3	235/299/339	104	290	10	10	21%	8%	79	+0.3	217/277/297	79	272	8	6	22%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Lars Anderson 2016 · AAA	28	48→57	45→50	44→40	52	233/311/361	128	290	12	4	23%	10%	91	+1.1	239/310/373	134	300	13	7	23%	9%	93	+1.3	244/316/377	133	303	12	4	23%	10%	95	+0.8
✕Josh Rojas 2022 · MLB	28	51→54	46→50	49→55	52	247/322/388	140	312	13	14	24%	10%	102	+1.8	247/320/365	118	310	11	18	22%	10%	95	+1.4	241/316/349	108	301	10	20	22%	9%	86	+0.6
✕Eric Filia 2021 · AAA	29	52→60	41→40	48→45	52	248/314/353	105	280	7	6	14%	8%	89	+1.0	245/318/364	119	293	11	12	19%	9%	94	+1.3	261/345/367	105	307	9	11	17%	10%	104	+0.6
✕Vimael Machín 2022 · MLB	28	45→54	45→50	50	48	224/286/352	128	266	12	5	20%	7%	78	+0.2	232/298/334	102	278	8	4	18%	8%	78	+0.2	244/298/379	135	287	16	11	20%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Bruce Maxwell 2019 · MLB	28	48	43→45	46→30	47	230/294/345	115	306	10	3	27%	8%	79	+0.3	237/299/391	154	301	19	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	248/312/424	175	293	24	0	24%	8%	106	+1.8
✕Mitch Maier 2011 · MLB	29	53→56	42→50	49→50	53	255/323/365	109	299	8	9	17%	9%	96	+1.5	244/322/362	118	311	10	9	23%	10%	95	+1.4	239/325/349	110	319	10	9	26%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Bronson Sardinha 2011 · AAA	28	53→52	47→50	47→50	50	260/324/411	151	319	12	10	22%	8%	108	+2.3	266/332/409	143	328	14	11	22%	9%	111	+2.5	290/359/425	136	351	15	10	20%	9%	122	+1.7