Gavin Lux — OGILVIE

Gavin Lux2B Durham Bulls

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +6%H +4% Svc 5.663 · Ctrl thru 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 3 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 6098vR 112

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%10

BABIP332

ISO115

MLB%45%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

718.8%

xAVG

440.247

POWER40

Barrel%

275.2

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

3369.6

EYE60

Chase%

7926.0%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 990 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

113

877

—

wRC+

112

▶▶R

wOBA

208

333

▶▶R

ISO

020

131

▶▶R

BABIP

258

340

▶▶R

31.9%

21.4%

▶▶R

BB%

8.8%

10.3%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-0.0M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	253	223	66	13	5	0	28	51	1	2	0	296	377	399	776	103	382	20	11	350	123	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2017	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	434	106	14	8	7	56	88	3	27	10	244	335	362	696	118	288	18	11	312	97	-2	+1	—	—	+11	1.1
2018	20	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	120	105	34	4	1	4	14	20	1	2	2	324	408	495	904	171	370	17	12	402	158	+8	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2018	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	404	358	116	23	7	11	43	68	1	11	7	324	398	520	918	196	374	17	11	402	158	+28	-1	—	—	+9	3.7
2019	21	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	82	75	18	4	1	2	7	24	0	2	0	240	305	400	705	160	327	29	9	314	99	-0	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.5
2019	21	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	232	199	78	18	4	13	33	42	0	3	3	392	478	719	1.197	327	451	18	14	511	232	+36	-1	—	—	+5	4.2
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	291	259	81	7	4	13	28	60	0	7	3	313	380	521	901	208	358	21	10	390	150	+17	+0	—	—	+6	2.4
2020	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	267	67	-3	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.0
2021	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	381	335	81	12	4	7	41	83	3	4	1	242	330	364	694	122	300	22	11	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+5	+8	1.2
2021	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	74	68	19	4	0	1	6	15	0	0	0	279	338	382	720	103	346	20	8	325	106	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	116	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	276	348	399	747	124	341	20	10	334	112	+7	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.1
2024	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	110	24	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	251	322	383	704	132	312	23	9	316	100	+0	+0	-3	+2	+11	1.0
2025	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	120	28	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	351	374	725	105	351	23	11	329	109	+5	+0	-8	-5	+11	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1993	1779	456	90	16	33	201	445	5	20	5	256	334	381	714	124	323	22	10	322	104	+9	+2	-9	+5	+43	5.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	253	234	50	9	3	0	17	73	1	2	0	214	270	278	548	64	310	29	7	248	54	-14	+0	—	—	+5	-0.8
2017	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	453	99	12	7	6	37	121	3	27	10	219	282	316	598	97	272	24	7	260	62	-23	+1	—	—	+11	-1.1
2018	20	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	120	111	32	4	1	3	8	25	1	2	2	288	342	423	765	135	341	21	7	326	107	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2018	20	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	404	372	91	16	4	9	29	95	1	11	7	245	301	382	683	137	304	24	7	300	89	-5	-1	—	—	+9	0.3
2019	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	82	75	18	4	1	2	7	24	0	2	0	240	305	400	705	160	327	29	9	317	101	+0	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.5
2019	21	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	232	208	61	14	3	9	24	53	0	3	3	293	366	519	886	226	351	23	10	374	139	+11	-1	—	—	+5	1.6
2019	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	291	270	70	5	4	11	17	77	0	7	3	259	303	430	733	170	314	26	6	319	102	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.7
2020	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	265	65	-3	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.0
2021	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	381	335	83	12	5	7	41	83	3	4	1	248	335	376	711	128	300	22	11	312	97	-1	+0	-1	+5	+8	1.1
2021	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	74	70	19	4	0	1	4	18	0	0	0	271	311	371	682	100	344	24	5	283	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2022	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	118	20	8	6	47	95	0	7	2	280	353	409	761	128	341	20	10	339	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	112	25	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	255	326	390	715	134	312	23	9	318	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+11	1.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	119	27	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	267	349	370	719	103	351	23	11	320	102	+1	+0	-8	-5	+11	-0.1
2016	18	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	253	234	50	9	3	0	17	73	1	2	0	214	270	278	548	64	309	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	—	253	223	66	13	5	0	28	51	1	2	0	296	377	399	776	103	382	20	11	350	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	453	99	12	7	6	37	121	3	27	10	219	282	316	598	97	281	24	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	434	106	14	8	7	56	88	3	27	10	244	335	362	696	118	288	18	11	312	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	483	123	20	5	12	37	121	2	13	9	255	310	391	702	137	315	23	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	524	463	150	27	8	15	57	88	2	13	9	324	400	514	914	190	373	17	11	402	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	605	553	149	23	8	22	48	154	0	12	6	269	328	459	787	190	333	25	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	605	533	177	29	9	28	68	126	0	12	6	332	408	578	986	246	389	21	11	426	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	265	65	-3	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.0
2020	22	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	267	65	-3	+0	+1	+0	+1	-0.0
2021	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	455	405	101	16	5	7	45	101	3	4	1	249	329	365	694	116	314	22	10	307	94	-3	+0	-1	+5	+10	1.1
2021	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	455	403	100	16	4	8	47	98	3	4	1	248	331	367	698	119	308	22	10	316	94	-3	+0	-1	+5	+10	1.1
2022	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	118	20	8	6	47	95	0	7	2	280	353	409	761	128	347	20	10	339	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.3
2022	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	116	20	7	6	47	95	0	7	2	276	348	399	747	124	341	20	10	334	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+10	2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	112	25	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	255	326	390	715	134	318	23	9	318	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+11	1.1
2024	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	439	110	24	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	251	322	383	704	132	312	23	9	316	101	+1	+0	-3	+2	+11	1.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	119	27	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	267	349	370	719	103	348	23	11	320	102	+1	+0	-8	-5	+11	-0.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	446	120	28	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	351	374	725	105	351	23	11	329	102	+1	+0	-8	-5	+11	-0.1
2016	18	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	253	233	50	9	3	0	17	73	1	2	0	215	270	279	549	64	310	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	501	456	99	12	7	6	37	121	3	27	10	217	282	314	596	96	272	24	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	480	123	20	5	12	37	121	2	13	9	256	310	394	704	138	312	23	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	605	552	149	23	8	22	48	154	0	12	6	270	328	460	788	190	330	25	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	69	63	11	2	0	3	6	19	0	1	0	175	246	349	596	175	195	28	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	455	404	101	16	5	7	45	101	3	4	1	250	329	366	695	116	307	22	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	471	421	118	20	8	6	47	95	0	7	2	280	353	409	761	128	341	20	10	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	438	112	25	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	256	326	390	716	135	312	23	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	442	119	27	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	349	373	722	104	351	23	11	320	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	487	438	112	25	2	10	44	110	2	5	2	256	326	390	716	135	312	23	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	503	442	119	27	2	5	56	114	0	1	0	269	349	373	722	104	351	23	11	320	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	TB	—	119	102	21	4	0	1	17	35	0	2	2	206	319	275	594	69	303	29	14	269	68	-5	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA RAW	TB	—	119	94	21	4	0	1	25	29	0	2	2	223	387	298	684	74	312	24	21	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AAA MLE	TB	45%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						322	33	0	313	98	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	28	MLB CTX	TB	45%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						332	0	0	319	98	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	TB	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	319	69	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	28	AAA MLE	TB	—	122	105	21	4	0	1	17	36	0	2	2	200	311	267	578	67	294	30	14	270	69	-5	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	100%	489	430	104	21	3	6	55	120	1	4	2	242	329	347	676	105	320	25	11	310	96	-2	+0	-5	+2	+11	0.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	100%	477	419	100	20	3	6	54	118	1	4	2	239	327	344	671	105	317	25	11	305	93	-4	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	100%	489	430	108	22	4	7	55	120	1	4	2	251	337	370	707	119	330	25	11	316	96	-2	+0	-5	+2	+11	0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	100%	477	419	103	21	3	6	54	118	1	4	2	246	333	353	687	107	326	25	11	311	93	-4	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2960	2629	667	133	23	46	310	683	7	28	9	254	334	374	708	121	325	23	10	319	95	+2	+2	-18	+9	+64	6.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	146	29	5	10	68	150	2	6	2	253	334	373	706	120	324	23	10	319	95	+1	+0	-4	+2	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4837	4349	1086	195	46	83	446	1147	13	80	34	250	321	373	694	123	319	24	9	308	95	+2	+2	-18	+9	+64	6.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	145	26	6	11	60	154	2	11	5	248	320	370	690	122	318	24	9	308	95	+1	+0	-4	+2	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Joe Paniklast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,099 PA	4.7	3,099	42	22	264	328	372	+11	+17	11.0	11.4
/162	664	9	5	+2.4	+3.7	2.4	pk7: 12
#2Brian Andersonlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,522 PA	3.8	2,522	66	14	252	336	404	-1	-0	10.0	10.0
/162	664	17	4	-0.1	-0.0	2.6	pk7: 10
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#4Rob Mackowiaklast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,618 PA	3.9	2,618	64	49	259	332	405	-11	-3	8.7	8.9
/162	664	16	12	-2.7	-0.8	2.2	pk7: 9
#5Casey McGeheelast yr '16 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,061 PA	4.6	3,061	67	7	258	318	386	+3	+7	8.3	8.3
/162	664	15	2	+0.7	+1.4	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.8	3,166	48	30	253	330	373	-2	-11	8.1	8.0
/162	664	10	6	-0.5	-2.2	1.7	pk7: 8
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gavin Lux (OGILVIE)	28	50	40	55	60	244/330/356	112	322	6	5	24%	11%	98	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Martini 2019 · MLB	29	53→58	41→50	51→45	52	251/329/351	100	319	7	7	22%	10%	96	+1.0	247/332/359	112	316	10	5	23%	10%	99	+1.2	236/326/369	133	296	14	1	23%	10%	96	+0.8
✕Shane Peterson 2016 · MLB	28	52→58	43→50	49→50	46	248/309/366	117	335	10	7	28%	8%	91	+0.7	239/286/374	135	318	13	10	28%	6%	85	+0.2	213/256/343	130	291	13	8	30%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Greg Garcia 2018 · MLB	28	54→55	39→40	47→50	57	252/346/340	88	317	6	8	21%	11%	100	+1.3	239/338/340	101	303	8	6	21%	12%	97	+1.1	237/345/335	98	299	7	3	21%	13%	96	+0.5
✕Bijan Rademacher 2018 · AAA	27	52→49	43→45	45	49	250/314/366	116	307	10	5	22%	8%	93	+0.8	224/277/308	84	287	7	6	23%	7%	66	-1.1	204/254/247	43	264	3	3	22%	6%	42	-1.9
✕Trenton Brooks 2023 · AAA	28	46→50	47→50	49→45	50	230/299/368	138	276	14	5	22%	8%	89	+0.5	235/316/381	146	272	16	8	19%	10%	99	+1.2	228/315/373	145	261	17	8	19%	11%	95	+0.8
✕Jason Conti 2003 · MLB	28	51→41	44→45	50	47	245/305/375	130	309	10	11	23%	8%	93	+0.8	229/284/359	130	302	13	7	27%	7%	81	-0.1	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Todd Self 2006 · MLB	27	47→51	44→45	48→45	47	228/302/348	120	311	11	7	29%	9%	86	+0.3	227/300/341	114	307	11	6	27%	9%	83	+0.1	248/321/365	117	312	12	4	23%	9%	97	+0.9
✕Jose Munoz 2007 · AAA	28	52→49	41→45	44→50	52	250/320/347	98	301	9	9	20%	9%	92	+0.7	246/321/355	109	293	9	11	18%	10%	93	+0.8	251/328/364	113	295	8	11	17%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA	28	48	41→45	46→45	52	230/309/337	108	275	8	8	19%	9%	86	+0.3	239/307/322	83	296	5	9	20%	8%	81	-0.1	245/311/305	60	306	2	7	19%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Daric Barton 2014 · MLB	28	49→57	42→45	45	61	235/336/342	107	276	9	5	17%	12%	97	+1.1	221/309/342	121	254	13	3	18%	10%	87	+0.4	202/295/329	127	227	15	1	18%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Vimael Machín 2022 · MLB	28	48→54	43→45	49→50	49	232/297/349	117	278	10	5	20%	8%	83	+0.1	234/301/333	99	281	8	4	18%	8%	81	-0.1	240/299/346	106	287	10	7	19%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Ben Gamel 2020 · MLB	28	56→62	44→50	48→50	51	263/339/390	127	340	10	9	24%	10%	108	+1.9	246/333/388	142	327	13	7	26%	11%	106	+1.8	235/329/377	143	305	14	7	26%	11%	99	+0.8
✕Jeff Salazar 2009 · MLB	28	49→51	46→50	54→55	53	240/316/381	141	285	11	13	19%	10%	97	+1.1	217/279/327	110	262	12	22	21%	8%	72	-0.7	201/264/296	95	243	11	28	22%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Bronson Sardinha 2011 · AAA	28	52	46→50	47→50	51	254/321/399	145	305	12	10	20%	9%	103	+1.6	257/325/395	138	311	13	11	21%	9%	104	+1.6	274/344/401	127	327	14	10	19%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Jace Peterson 2018 · MLB	28	49→57	41→50	47→55	56	232/317/335	103	281	8	11	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/312/358	129	283	11	18	21%	10%	91	+0.7	238/316/380	142	295	14	19	23%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Nomar Mazara 2023 · MLB	28	51→52	45→55	45→40	47	249/312/373	125	319	12	3	25%	8%	95	+0.9	240/307/367	127	306	13	5	24%	9%	91	+0.7	226/297/323	97	289	10	0	24%	9%	77	-0.1
✕Mitch Maier 2011 · MLB	29	53→55	42→50	49→50	53	254/322/362	108	297	8	9	17%	9%	95	+1.0	241/321/358	117	308	10	9	23%	10%	95	+0.9	234/323/341	107	315	9	9	26%	11%	89	+0.1
✕Dominic Smith 2023 · MLB	28	49→55	46→50	46→40	46	242/306/377	135	293	14	5	22%	7%	94	+0.9	243/310/366	123	292	13	4	20%	8%	93	+0.8	244/312/367	122	291	13	4	20%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Lars Anderson 2016 · AAA	28	47→57	44→45	44→40	52	230/306/353	124	282	11	4	22%	10%	88	+0.5	235/305/363	128	291	12	7	22%	9%	90	+0.6	239/308/362	122	294	11	4	21%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Travis Ishikawa 2012 · MLB	28	48→49	44→55	46→45	47	235/303/353	118	307	11	6	26%	8%	87	+0.4	237/307/370	133	312	12	4	26%	8%	93	+0.8	238/309/373	135	313	13	1	27%	8%	89	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps