Kevyn Castillo
LF Rancho Cucamonga Quakes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ASEA | 196 | .292/.376/.415 | 4 | 8 | 76 | — | .237/.304/.328 |
| 2025 | 20 | ASEA | 192 | .285/.399/.399 | 2 | 6 | 88 | — | .247/.335/.349 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ALAA | 549 | .277/.387/.453 | 15 | 25 | 90 | — | .230/.315/.371 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBLAA | 576 | .222/.304/.344 | 11 | 13 | 85 | 0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 23 | MLBLAA | 195 | .225/.307/.353 | 4 | 4 | 88 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 24 | MLBLAA | 320 | .228/.310/.361 | 7 | 6 | 91 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | — | 48 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 340 | 300 | 640 | 75 | 391 | 35 | 12 | 296 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | — | 234 | 186 | 69 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 40 | 36 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 371 | 487 | 548 | 1.035 | 177 | 437 | 15 | 17 | 445 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 171 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 292 | 376 | 415 | 791 | 123 | 400 | 27 | 10 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 158 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 285 | 399 | 399 | 798 | 114 | 361 | 20 | 15 | 356 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 111 | 93 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 352 | 387 | 739 | 140 | 294 | 21 | 13 | 328 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 438 | 366 | 104 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 62 | 74 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 284 | 396 | 470 | 866 | 186 | 325 | 17 | 14 | 383 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 48 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 143 | 234 | 190 | 425 | 48 | 271 | 44 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 234 | 198 | 50 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 253 | 351 | 359 | 709 | 106 | 294 | 19 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 328 | 632 | 90 | 383 | 38 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 166 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 247 | 335 | 349 | 685 | 102 | 335 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 111 | 97 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 287 | 330 | 617 | 124 | 263 | 28 | 9 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 438 | 385 | 91 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 101 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 236 | 323 | 382 | 704 | 145 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 48 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 143 | 234 | 190 | 425 | 48 | 286 | 44 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Angels | — | 48 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 340 | 300 | 640 | 75 | 391 | 35 | 12 | 296 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 234 | 198 | 50 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 253 | 351 | 359 | 709 | 106 | 308 | 19 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Angels | — | 234 | 186 | 69 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 40 | 36 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 371 | 487 | 548 | 1.035 | 177 | 437 | 15 | 17 | 445 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 328 | 632 | 90 | 390 | 38 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 171 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 292 | 376 | 415 | 791 | 123 | 400 | 27 | 10 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 166 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 247 | 335 | 349 | 685 | 102 | 345 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 158 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 285 | 399 | 399 | 798 | 114 | 361 | 20 | 15 | 356 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 482 | 111 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 132 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 230 | 315 | 367 | 683 | 137 | 289 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 549 | 459 | 127 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 76 | 97 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 277 | 387 | 453 | 841 | 176 | 319 | 18 | 14 | 372 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 48 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 140 | 234 | 186 | 420 | 47 | 271 | 44 | 8 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 234 | 202 | 50 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 248 | 351 | 351 | 702 | 104 | 294 | 19 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 328 | 632 | 90 | 383 | 38 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 168 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 335 | 345 | 680 | 101 | 335 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 484 | 111 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 132 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 229 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 136 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 237 | 304 | 328 | 632 | 90 | 383 | 38 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 192 | 168 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 244 | 335 | 345 | 680 | 101 | 335 | 28 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 484 | 111 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 132 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 229 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 136 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 576 | 510 | 113 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 143 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 222 | 304 | 344 | 648 | 122 | 283 | 25 | 10 | 293 | 85 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAA | 43% | 451 | 400 | 91 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 110 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 226 | 308 | 355 | 663 | 129 | 284 | 24 | 10 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 58% | 552 | 488 | 112 | 19 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 133 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 229 | 311 | 362 | 673 | 134 | 285 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 65% | 569 | 503 | 115 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 55 | 136 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 230 | 312 | 367 | 679 | 137 | 286 | 24 | 10 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 68% | 568 | 503 | 116 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 135 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 231 | 313 | 369 | 682 | 138 | 286 | 24 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 68% | 561 | 496 | 115 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 134 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 231 | 312 | 368 | 681 | 138 | 286 | 24 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 73% | 551 | 488 | 112 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 133 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 229 | 310 | 364 | 674 | 135 | 285 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 76% | 521 | 462 | 105 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 127 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 227 | 308 | 358 | 665 | 131 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 300 | 89 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAA | 78% | 509 | 451 | 101 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 126 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 224 | 304 | 350 | 655 | 127 | 282 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -8 | -0 | -2 | -5 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | LAA | 79% | 492 | 439 | 97 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 123 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 220 | 300 | 341 | 641 | 121 | 280 | 25 | 9 | 290 | 82 | -10 | -1 | -3 | -5 | +11 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAA | 43% | 195 | 172 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 307 | 353 | 661 | 129 | 282 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 88 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 58% | 320 | 283 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 77 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 310 | 361 | 671 | 134 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 65% | 369 | 327 | 75 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 88 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 229 | 311 | 365 | 677 | 136 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 304 | 93 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 68% | 386 | 342 | 78 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 92 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 230 | 312 | 367 | 679 | 138 | 284 | 24 | 10 | 305 | 93 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 68% | 381 | 338 | 78 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 91 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 311 | 367 | 678 | 137 | 284 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 73% | 404 | 358 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 97 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 309 | 362 | 672 | 135 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 76% | 396 | 351 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 96 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 307 | 356 | 663 | 131 | 282 | 24 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAA | 78% | 397 | 353 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 98 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 303 | 349 | 652 | 126 | 280 | 25 | 9 | 294 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | LAA | 79% | 390 | 348 | 76 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 98 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 219 | 299 | 339 | 638 | 121 | 277 | 25 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -8 | -1 | -2 | -4 | +8 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3238 | 2872 | 650 | 105 | 26 | 74 | 308 | 784 | 32 | 47 | 21 | 226 | 308 | 358 | 667 | 132 | 284 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -40 | +1 | -5 | -35 | +70 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 130 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 62 | 157 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 225 | 307 | 357 | 664 | 132 | 282 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6203 | 5481 | 1256 | 207 | 56 | 130 | 594 | 1534 | 65 | 143 | 62 | 229 | 312 | 359 | 670 | 129 | 292 | 25 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -61 | +1 | -7 | -53 | +108 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 132 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 62 | 161 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 230 | 313 | 362 | 675 | 132 | 293 | 25 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 438 PAwOBA .375 → .308 (−67)K% 16.9% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.89% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .375 → .308; ISO .186 → .153; BABIP .325 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 111 PAwOBA .322 → .268 (−54)K% 20.7% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 3.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .322 → .268; ISO .140 → .117; BABIP .294 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 192 PAwOBA .352 → .299 (−53)K% 20.3% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.31% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.58% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 27.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.36% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 3.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.68% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 113, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .299; ISO .114 → .101; BABIP .361 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 196 PAwOBA .347 → .281 (−66)K% 27.0% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.04% | ÷0.957 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.057 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.20% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.045 | 31.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.045 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.139 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.045 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 128, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .347 → .281; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .400 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Angels · 234 PAwOBA .442 → .311 (−131)K% 15.4% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.09% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | ×1.043 | ×1.008 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.927 | ×0.600 | ×1.043 | ×1.008 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.043 | ×1.008 | 2.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 106, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .442 → .311; ISO .177 → .112; BABIP .437 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Angels · 48 PAwOBA .289 → .193 (−96)K% 35.4% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.42% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.074 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 17.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷0.863 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 9.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.801 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 103, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .193; ISO .075 → .051; BABIP .391 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).