Josh Fellhauer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 315 | .267/.359/.359 | 4 | 3 | 76 | — | .245/.311/.319 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 302 | .263/.352/.351 | 0 | 2 | 77 | — | .250/.312/.330 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAMIL | 236 | .240/.343/.310 | 2 | 8 | 51 | — | .204/.279/.256 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 264 | 236 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 280 | 351 | 453 | 805 | 174 | 303 | 13 | 7 | 355 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 552 | 496 | 119 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 82 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 240 | 299 | 331 | 629 | 91 | 274 | 15 | 7 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA | Carolina Mudcats | — | 82 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 278 | 366 | 319 | 685 | 42 | 370 | 22 | 12 | 320 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 442 | 388 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 68 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 281 | 362 | 387 | 748 | 106 | 330 | 15 | 10 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 399 | 338 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 314 | 411 | 420 | 831 | 107 | 362 | 14 | 14 | 373 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 40 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 325 | 265 | 590 | 59 | 280 | 22 | 15 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 289 | 246 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 268 | 364 | 358 | 722 | 89 | 330 | 20 | 12 | 326 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 26 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 375 | 683 | 125 | 333 | 23 | 4 | 308 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 29 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 111 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 275 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Huntsville Stars | — | 273 | 235 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 60 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 361 | 353 | 714 | 85 | 358 | 22 | 12 | 323 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 236 | 200 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 240 | 343 | 310 | 653 | 70 | 293 | 18 | 12 | 302 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 264 | 242 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 252 | 309 | 401 | 710 | 149 | 281 | 17 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 552 | 510 | 107 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 210 | 252 | 284 | 537 | 75 | 254 | 22 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 82 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 253 | 317 | 293 | 610 | 40 | 361 | 28 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 442 | 402 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 92 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 251 | 311 | 336 | 647 | 85 | 311 | 21 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 399 | 356 | 108 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 64 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 303 | 371 | 390 | 761 | 87 | 355 | 16 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 289 | 258 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 73 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 244 | 311 | 314 | 625 | 70 | 313 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 26 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 308 | 375 | 683 | 125 | 299 | 27 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 29 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 250 | 457 | 71 | 257 | 31 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Huntsville Stars | — | 273 | 245 | 63 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 72 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 323 | 339 | 662 | 82 | 353 | 26 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 236 | 211 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 54 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 204 | 279 | 256 | 535 | 52 | 257 | 23 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 264 | 242 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 252 | 309 | 401 | 710 | 149 | 289 | 17 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 264 | 236 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 280 | 351 | 453 | 805 | 174 | 303 | 13 | 7 | 355 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 552 | 510 | 107 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 210 | 252 | 284 | 537 | 75 | 262 | 22 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 552 | 496 | 119 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 82 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 240 | 299 | 331 | 629 | 91 | 274 | 15 | 7 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 477 | 120 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 252 | 312 | 329 | 641 | 78 | 324 | 22 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 524 | 460 | 129 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 56 | 86 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 280 | 362 | 376 | 738 | 96 | 336 | 16 | 11 | 334 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 392 | 118 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 70 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 301 | 369 | 385 | 754 | 84 | 360 | 16 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 372 | 113 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 60 | 63 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 304 | 403 | 406 | 809 | 102 | 355 | 14 | 14 | 365 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 282 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 311 | 319 | 630 | 74 | 325 | 25 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 315 | 270 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 64 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 267 | 359 | 359 | 718 | 93 | 330 | 20 | 11 | 324 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 272 | 67 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 246 | 312 | 327 | 639 | 81 | 349 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 302 | 262 | 69 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 67 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 263 | 352 | 351 | 703 | 88 | 352 | 22 | 12 | 318 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 236 | 211 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 54 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 204 | 279 | 256 | 535 | 52 | 266 | 23 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 236 | 200 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 240 | 343 | 310 | 653 | 70 | 293 | 18 | 12 | 302 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 264 | 242 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 252 | 309 | 401 | 710 | 149 | 281 | 17 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 552 | 518 | 107 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 120 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 207 | 252 | 280 | 532 | 73 | 254 | 22 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 477 | 120 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 115 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 252 | 312 | 329 | 641 | 78 | 319 | 22 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 394 | 118 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 70 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 299 | 369 | 383 | 752 | 84 | 355 | 16 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 285 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 311 | 316 | 626 | 74 | 312 | 25 | 8 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 273 | 67 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 26 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 312 | 326 | 638 | 81 | 344 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 236 | 212 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 54 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 203 | 279 | 255 | 534 | 52 | 257 | 23 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2632 | 2386 | 585 | 115 | 10 | 21 | 183 | 566 | 25 | 45 | 33 | 245 | 306 | 328 | 634 | 83 | 311 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -80 | -4 | +0 | -28 | +57 | -5.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 143 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 140 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 243 | 303 | 323 | 625 | 80 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -20 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 236 PAwOBA .298 → .244 (−53)K% 18.2% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.22% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.20% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 21.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .298 → .244; ISO .070 → .060; BABIP .293 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHuntsville Stars · 273 PAwOBA .316 → .291 (−26)K% 22.0% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.98% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.945 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.86% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 26.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷0.950 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.29% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .316 → .291; ISO .085 → .086; BABIP .358 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAALouisville Bats · 29 PAwOBA .267 → .204 (−63)K% 24.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.14% | ÷0.926 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 14.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 11.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.928 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .267 → .204; ISO .111 → .078; BABIP .300 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAALouisville Bats · 289 PAwOBA .322 → .282 (−40)K% 20.1% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.07% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 26.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .322 → .282; ISO .089 → .079; BABIP .330 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 26 PAwOBA .299 → .255 (−44)K% 23.1% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 2.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 3.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 15.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 14.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .255; ISO .125 → .108; BABIP .333 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 399 PAwOBA .365 → .334 (−31)K% 13.5% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.029 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.28% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.17% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 27.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.569 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.73% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 214, 1B 92, 2B 88, 3B 105, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .365 → .334; ISO .107 → .092; BABIP .362 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 442 PAwOBA .327 → .283 (−44)K% 15.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.993 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.18% | ÷1.003 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 24.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.122 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .327 → .283; ISO .106 → .088; BABIP .330 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AACarolina Mudcats · 82 PAwOBA .312 → .275 (−37)K% 22.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.968 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.48% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 30.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 94, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .275; ISO .042 → .039; BABIP .370 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .