Yoiber Ocopio
C Lake Elsinore Storm| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKDSL Padres Go… | 181 | .261/.447/.381 | 0 | 12 | 53 | — | .159/.318/.228 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKSD | 232 | .221/.348/.326 | 4 | 4 | 32 | — | .155/.256/.225 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ASD | 321 | .250/.345/.380 | 6 | 8 | 59 | — | .202/.282/.307 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSD | 431 | .196/.273/.288 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBSD | 84 | .198/.275/.298 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBSD | 150 | .202/.280/.310 | 3 | 2 | 70 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | — | 193 | 138 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 275 | 474 | 406 | 880 | 130 | 333 | 15 | 19 | 408 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 134 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 261 | 447 | 381 | 828 | 119 | 347 | 19 | 18 | 384 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 50 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 327 | 286 | 612 | 71 | 321 | 30 | 10 | 285 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 182 | 148 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 354 | 338 | 692 | 115 | 282 | 25 | 13 | 317 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 59 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 322 | 333 | 655 | 74 | 333 | 24 | 5 | 301 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 262 | 222 | 55 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 59 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 248 | 350 | 392 | 742 | 144 | 314 | 23 | 10 | 334 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 193 | 149 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 181 | 365 | 255 | 620 | 74 | 214 | 18 | 13 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 145 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 159 | 318 | 228 | 546 | 69 | 205 | 25 | 12 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 50 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 265 | 209 | 475 | 47 | 286 | 42 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 182 | 157 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 253 | 229 | 482 | 76 | 206 | 35 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 59 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 271 | 291 | 562 | 73 | 306 | 31 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 262 | 232 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 80 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 198 | 285 | 310 | 595 | 112 | 273 | 31 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 193 | 149 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 181 | 365 | 255 | 620 | 74 | 228 | 18 | 13 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres Gold | — | 193 | 138 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 36 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 275 | 474 | 406 | 880 | 130 | 333 | 15 | 19 | 408 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 145 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 159 | 318 | 228 | 546 | 69 | 225 | 25 | 12 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 134 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 261 | 447 | 381 | 828 | 119 | 347 | 19 | 18 | 384 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 201 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 85 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 154 | 251 | 224 | 475 | 70 | 237 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 232 | 190 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 60 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 348 | 326 | 674 | 105 | 290 | 26 | 12 | 310 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 98 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 202 | 282 | 303 | 585 | 101 | 286 | 31 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 276 | 69 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 73 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 250 | 345 | 380 | 725 | 130 | 318 | 23 | 9 | 328 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 193 | 148 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 365 | 257 | 621 | 74 | 214 | 18 | 13 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 145 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 159 | 318 | 228 | 546 | 69 | 205 | 25 | 12 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 204 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 85 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 152 | 251 | 221 | 472 | 69 | 223 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 286 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 98 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 203 | 282 | 304 | 586 | 101 | 279 | 31 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres Gold | — | 181 | 145 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 45 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 159 | 318 | 228 | 546 | 69 | 205 | 25 | 12 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 204 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 85 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 152 | 251 | 221 | 472 | 69 | 223 | 37 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 286 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 98 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 203 | 282 | 304 | 586 | 101 | 279 | 31 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 431 | 387 | 76 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 121 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 196 | 273 | 288 | 561 | 92 | 267 | 28 | 7 | 258 | 61 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +9 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | SD | 34% | 244 | 219 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 67 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 279 | 303 | 582 | 102 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | SD | 46% | 326 | 292 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 89 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 283 | 315 | 597 | 109 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | SD | 52% | 372 | 333 | 69 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 100 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 208 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 114 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 399 | 358 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 106 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 210 | 287 | 326 | 614 | 116 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 411 | 369 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 109 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 211 | 288 | 328 | 616 | 117 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | SD | 54% | 411 | 369 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 110 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 286 | 323 | 609 | 114 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 53% | 403 | 361 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 109 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 110 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 52% | 393 | 352 | 72 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 108 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 106 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | SD | 34% | 84 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 275 | 298 | 574 | 100 | 263 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 66 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | SD | 46% | 150 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 280 | 310 | 590 | 108 | 266 | 27 | 7 | 269 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | SD | 52% | 192 | 171 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 282 | 317 | 600 | 112 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 273 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 216 | 193 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 284 | 322 | 606 | 115 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 223 | 200 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 116 | 268 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | SD | 54% | 223 | 200 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 283 | 318 | 601 | 113 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 73 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 53% | 214 | 191 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 280 | 312 | 592 | 109 | 265 | 27 | 7 | 270 | 71 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 52% | 206 | 184 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 276 | 304 | 580 | 104 | 263 | 27 | 7 | 265 | 68 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1508 | 1349 | 278 | 54 | 6 | 29 | 110 | 407 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 206 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 113 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 271 | 67 | -50 | +1 | -2 | +27 | +33 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 47 | 175 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 205 | 283 | 317 | 599 | 112 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 271 | 67 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4094 | 3621 | 723 | 147 | 14 | 67 | 315 | 1119 | 123 | 71 | 12 | 200 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 104 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -109 | +5 | -4 | +57 | +69 | 1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 115 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 178 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 200 | 287 | 304 | 592 | 104 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 262 PAwOBA .327 → .258 (−69)K% 22.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | — | 18.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | — | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | — | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .327 → .258; ISO .144 → .112; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 59 PAwOBA .294 → .243 (−51)K% 23.7% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.39% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 27.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 2.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .294 → .243; ISO .074 → .056; BABIP .333 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Padres · 182 PAwOBA .316 → .216 (−100)K% 24.7% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.73% | ÷1.023 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.19% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.30% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.045 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 3.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.93% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .216; ISO .115 → .080; BABIP .282 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 50 PAwOBA .284 → .216 (−68)K% 30.0% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 8.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .216; ISO .071 → .049; BABIP .321 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 181 PAwOBA .380 → .246 (−134)K% 19.3% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.34% | ÷0.952 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.23% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 12.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.63% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 4.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×0.957 | ×0.985 | 14.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.072 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×0.985 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.096 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×0.985 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .380 → .246; ISO .119 → .067; BABIP .347 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 193 PAwOBA .401 → .280 (−121)K% 15.0% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.03% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.65% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 13.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.81% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 6.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷0.971 | ×0.680 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 16.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷0.926 | ×0.600 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 3.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.75% | ÷0.999 | ×0.600 | ×0.954 | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.083 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.79% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 94, 2B 85, 3B 100, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .401 → .280; ISO .130 → .078; BABIP .333 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).