Misael Urbina
OF Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A+MIN | 412 | .180/.290/.282 | 4 | 6 | 24 | — | .142/.232/.213 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+MIN | 392 | .218/.337/.324 | 5 | 14 | 42 | — | .170/.257/.233 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+MIN | 268 | .247/.361/.404 | 4 | 2 | 70 | — | .202/.293/.322 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBMIN | 318 | .203/.289/.305 | 4 | 5 | 70 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBMIN | 27 | .206/.291/.314 | 0 | 0 | 73 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 217 | 183 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 279 | 386 | 443 | 829 | 164 | 290 | 6 | 11 | 369 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 439 | 367 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 82 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 191 | 306 | 286 | 592 | 95 | 224 | 19 | 12 | 272 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 217 | 191 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 51 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 246 | 327 | 419 | 746 | 173 | 304 | 24 | 11 | 328 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 46 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 100 | 312 | 20 | 4 | 308 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 412 | 355 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 109 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 180 | 290 | 282 | 572 | 101 | 246 | 26 | 12 | 267 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 330 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 97 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 218 | 337 | 324 | 661 | 106 | 291 | 25 | 14 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 223 | 55 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 361 | 404 | 765 | 157 | 288 | 17 | 14 | 340 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 217 | 190 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 179 | 274 | 274 | 548 | 95 | 182 | 8 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 439 | 381 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 114 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 165 | 257 | 255 | 512 | 89 | 203 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 217 | 199 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 70 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 196 | 252 | 332 | 584 | 136 | 273 | 32 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 46 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 267 | 268 | 535 | 73 | 250 | 28 | 2 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 412 | 367 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 142 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 142 | 232 | 213 | 444 | 71 | 215 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 348 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 170 | 257 | 233 | 490 | 63 | 255 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 233 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 202 | 293 | 322 | 615 | 120 | 244 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 217 | 190 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 179 | 274 | 274 | 548 | 95 | 190 | 8 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 217 | 183 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 279 | 386 | 443 | 829 | 164 | 290 | 6 | 11 | 369 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 439 | 381 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 114 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 165 | 257 | 255 | 512 | 89 | 213 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 439 | 367 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 82 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 191 | 306 | 286 | 592 | 95 | 224 | 19 | 12 | 272 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 240 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 83 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 196 | 255 | 321 | 576 | 125 | 274 | 32 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 263 | 231 | 57 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 60 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 247 | 328 | 407 | 735 | 160 | 306 | 23 | 10 | 325 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 412 | 367 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 142 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 142 | 232 | 213 | 444 | 71 | 219 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 412 | 355 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 109 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 180 | 290 | 282 | 572 | 101 | 246 | 26 | 12 | 267 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 348 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 170 | 257 | 233 | 490 | 63 | 255 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 330 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 97 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 218 | 337 | 324 | 661 | 106 | 291 | 25 | 14 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 233 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 202 | 293 | 322 | 615 | 120 | 251 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 223 | 55 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 247 | 361 | 404 | 765 | 157 | 288 | 17 | 14 | 340 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 217 | 190 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 179 | 274 | 274 | 548 | 95 | 182 | 8 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 439 | 389 | 63 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 114 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 162 | 257 | 249 | 506 | 87 | 203 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 263 | 242 | 47 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 83 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 194 | 255 | 318 | 573 | 124 | 269 | 32 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 412 | 366 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 142 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 142 | 232 | 213 | 445 | 71 | 215 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 348 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 170 | 257 | 233 | 490 | 63 | 255 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 236 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 199 | 293 | 318 | 611 | 119 | 244 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 392 | 348 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 170 | 257 | 233 | 490 | 63 | 255 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 268 | 236 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 199 | 293 | 318 | 611 | 119 | 244 | 22 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 318 | 281 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 76 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 203 | 289 | 305 | 593 | 102 | 259 | 24 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 30% | 90 | 80 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 291 | 314 | 605 | 108 | 261 | 23 | 10 | 276 | 73 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 30% | 27 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 291 | 314 | 605 | 108 | 261 | 22 | 11 | 276 | 73 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 259 | 208 | 468 | 42 | 222 | 22 | 11 | 276 | 47 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 96 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 258 | 208 | 466 | 42 | 221 | 22 | 11 | 276 | 47 | -21 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2156 | 1906 | 330 | 77 | 15 | 21 | 190 | 580 | 33 | 69 | 30 | 173 | 260 | 262 | 522 | 89 | 233 | 27 | 9 | 237 | 47 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 99 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 175 | 10 | 21 | 9 | 172 | 259 | 261 | 519 | 89 | 232 | 27 | 9 | 237 | 47 | -22 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 268 PAwOBA .335 → .271 (−64)K% 16.8% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.79% | ÷0.979 | ×1.270 | — | — | 21.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷0.989 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.98% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 16.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.088 | ×0.810 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.943 | ×0.850 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .335 → .271; ISO .157 → .127; BABIP .288 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 392 PAwOBA .300 → .231 (−69)K% 24.7% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.74% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.03% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.87% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 5.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.146 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.191 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .300 → .231; ISO .106 → .072; BABIP .291 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 412 PAwOBA .262 → .204 (−58)K% 26.5% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.46% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷0.966 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.85% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 14.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷0.994 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.18% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .262 → .204; ISO .101 → .072; BABIP .246 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 217 PAwOBA .322 → .259 (−63)K% 23.5% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.50% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 10.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .259; ISO .173 → .141; BABIP .304 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Twins · 46 PAwOBA .307 → .229 (−78)K% 19.6% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷1.016 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷0.984 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 2.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 15.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷0.925 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 10.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.282 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 85, 3B 94, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .307 → .229; ISO .100 → .075; BABIP .312 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 439 PAwOBA .272 → .229 (−43)K% 18.7% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.68% | ÷0.979 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.19% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 3.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×1.045 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .272 → .229; ISO .095 → .089; BABIP .224 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Twins · 217 PAwOBA .361 → .240 (−121)K% 6.5% → 7.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 7.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.15% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 11.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.57% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .240; ISO .164 → .097; BABIP .290 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).