Victor Duarte
2B Lake Elsinore Storm| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ASD | 200 | .230/.357/.304 | 1 | 4 | 54 | — | .192/.291/.250 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+/ASD | 132 | .187/.220/.236 | 0 | 3 | -8 | — | .141/.167/.172 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/ASD | 140 | .257/.353/.407 | 4 | 7 | 70 | — | .212/.286/.318 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBSD | 200 | .200/.260/.308 | 4 | 4 | 60 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBSD | 42 | .198/.259/.306 | 1 | 1 | 61 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 36
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | — | 163 | 133 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 173 | 304 | 256 | 559 | 83 | 185 | 10 | 9 | 263 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 17 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 438 | 732 | 188 | 333 | 35 | 6 | 323 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 38 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 265 | 528 | 88 | 250 | 26 | 11 | 245 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 89 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 333 | 348 | 682 | 124 | 305 | 27 | 10 | 314 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 200 | 161 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 230 | 357 | 304 | 661 | 75 | 273 | 16 | 14 | 306 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 65 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 185 | 200 | 385 | 33 | 244 | 29 | 3 | 172 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 254 | 270 | 524 | 63 | 260 | 19 | 6 | 240 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 56 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 264 | 367 | 631 | 143 | 346 | 39 | 5 | 264 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 84 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 281 | 410 | 438 | 847 | 156 | 308 | 13 | 18 | 373 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 163 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 117 | 234 | 182 | 417 | 66 | 116 | 13 | 7 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 305 | 47 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 38 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 184 | 222 | 406 | 83 | 196 | 37 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 96 | 258 | 37 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 200 | 172 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 192 | 291 | 250 | 541 | 58 | 243 | 23 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 65 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 138 | 141 | 279 | 16 | 216 | 37 | 2 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 67 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 194 | 203 | 397 | 47 | 217 | 27 | 4 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 56 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 226 | 275 | 501 | 78 | 322 | 46 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 84 | 72 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 325 | 347 | 673 | 125 | 258 | 18 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 163 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 117 | 234 | 182 | 417 | 66 | 126 | 13 | 7 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Padres | — | 163 | 133 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 173 | 304 | 256 | 559 | 83 | 185 | 10 | 9 | 263 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 55 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 200 | 269 | 469 | 115 | 241 | 40 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 55 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 320 | 593 | 120 | 273 | 29 | 9 | 269 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 96 | 264 | 37 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 89 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 333 | 348 | 682 | 124 | 305 | 27 | 10 | 314 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 200 | 172 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 192 | 291 | 250 | 541 | 58 | 248 | 23 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 200 | 161 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 230 | 357 | 304 | 661 | 75 | 273 | 16 | 14 | 306 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 128 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 31 | 212 | 33 | 3 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 132 | 123 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 187 | 220 | 236 | 455 | 49 | 253 | 24 | 5 | 207 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 123 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 287 | 317 | 604 | 106 | 284 | 29 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 140 | 113 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 257 | 353 | 407 | 760 | 150 | 321 | 24 | 13 | 330 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Padres | — | 163 | 141 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 113 | 234 | 177 | 411 | 64 | 116 | 13 | 7 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 55 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 200 | 269 | 469 | 115 | 230 | 40 | 5 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 93 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 257 | 269 | 526 | 97 | 258 | 37 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 200 | 174 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 190 | 291 | 247 | 538 | 57 | 243 | 23 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 127 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 167 | 173 | 340 | 31 | 217 | 33 | 3 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 126 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 287 | 310 | 596 | 103 | 284 | 29 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 127 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 167 | 173 | 340 | 31 | 217 | 33 | 3 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 126 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 287 | 310 | 596 | 103 | 284 | 29 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | SD | 0% | 200 | 183 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 260 | 308 | 568 | 108 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 256 | 60 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | SD | 26% | 162 | 149 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 262 | 310 | 572 | 109 | 268 | 28 | 7 | 258 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | SD | 26% | 42 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 259 | 306 | 565 | 108 | 262 | 29 | 7 | 255 | 61 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 42 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 238 | 282 | 520 | 103 | 231 | 29 | 7 | 255 | 39 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 107 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 46 | 186 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 177 | 235 | 276 | 512 | 99 | 228 | 29 | 7 | 255 | 39 | -30 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1062 | 951 | 166 | 29 | 5 | 13 | 73 | 288 | 23 | 25 | 6 | 175 | 250 | 257 | 507 | 82 | 231 | 27 | 7 | 226 | 39 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 102 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 176 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 175 | 251 | 258 | 509 | 82 | 232 | 27 | 7 | 226 | 39 | -31 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 84 PAwOBA .369 → .303 (−66)K% 13.1% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 11.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.970 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.970 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 2.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .369 → .303; ISO .156 → .133; BABIP .308 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 56 PAwOBA .261 → .225 (−36)K% 39.3% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 28.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .261 → .225; ISO .143 → .108; BABIP .346 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 67 PAwOBA .234 → .174 (−60)K% 19.4% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.97% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.980 | 15.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.980 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .234 → .174; ISO .063 → .043; BABIP .260 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 65 PAwOBA .168 → .138 (−30)K% 29.2% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.23% | ÷0.989 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.08% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 2.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×0.988 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×0.988 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.120 | ×0.850 | ×1.020 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 124, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .168 → .138; ISO .033 → .024; BABIP .244 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 200 PAwOBA .305 → .248 (−57)K% 16.0% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.00% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.71% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | — | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | — | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | — | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .305 → .248; ISO .075 → .059; BABIP .273 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 105 PAwOBA .303 → .229 (−74)K% 26.7% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 19.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .303 → .229; ISO .124 → .091; BABIP .305 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Padres · 38 PAwOBA .239 → .158 (−81)K% 26.3% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 13.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .239 → .158; ISO .088 → .056; BABIP .250 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 17 PAwOBA .314 → .228 (−85)K% 35.3% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.011 | ×1.350 | — | — | 47.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 4.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 27.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.067 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 8.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 113, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .228; ISO .188 → .127; BABIP .333 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).