Bryan Arias — OGILVIE

Bryan Arias2B FCL Astros

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .310

PA11

HR0

K%29

BB%8

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	58	47	9	0	0	2	9	18	1	1	1	191	333	319	652	128	259	31	16	302	90	-1	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2021	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	64	59	14	3	0	5	4	20	1	1	0	237	297	542	839	305	265	31	6	363	132	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2021	24	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	80	70	14	2	0	3	9	22	1	6	2	200	300	357	657	157	244	28	11	300	89	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	291	64	17	0	6	43	98	8	11	1	220	335	340	675	120	305	28	12	310	96	-2	+2	—	—	+7	0.8
2023	26	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	86	70	17	3	0	3	14	18	2	6	0	243	384	414	798	171	286	21	16	364	132	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2023	26	ROK	FCL Astros	—	40	33	8	3	0	0	5	8	2	1	0	242	375	333	708	91	320	20	12	333	112	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	27	ROK	FCL Astros	—	27	26	3	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	115	148	115	264		176	33	4	126	-28	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	58	50	7	0	0	1	6	23	1	1	1	140	246	200	446	60	238	40	10	230	42	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2021	24	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	64	60	10	2	0	3	3	27	1	1	0	167	219	350	569	183	221	42	5	239	48	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2021	24	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	80	73	11	1	0	2	6	30	1	6	2	151	225	247	472	96	227	38	8	216	32	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	308	56	15	0	4	27	126	8	11	1	182	265	269	535	88	280	36	8	243	51	-20	+2	—	—	+7	-1.1
2023	26	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	86	74	16	3	0	2	10	21	2	6	0	216	326	338	663	122	264	24	12	286	80	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	26	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	40	35	6	2	0	0	3	11	2	1	0	171	275	229	504	57	254	28	8	237	47	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	27	26	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		147	48	4	80	-60	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2021	24	A MLE	3 teams	—	202	183	28	3	0	6	15	80	3	8	3	153	229	268	497	115	227	40	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A RAW	3 teams	—	202	176	37	5	0	10	22	60	3	8	3	210	308	409	718	199	255	30	11	320	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	308	56	15	0	4	27	126	8	11	1	182	265	269	535	88	287	36	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	291	64	17	0	6	43	98	8	11	1	220	335	340	675	120	305	28	12	310	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	126	109	22	5	0	2	13	32	4	7	0	202	310	303	612	101	267	25	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	126	103	25	6	0	3	19	26	4	7	0	243	381	388	769	146	297	21	15	354	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	27	26	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		154	48	4	80	-60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	27	26	3	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	115	148	115	264		176	33	4	126	-60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A MLE	3 teams	—	202	182	28	3	0	6	15	80	3	8	3	154	229	269	498	115	228	40	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	308	56	15	0	4	27	126	8	11	1	182	265	269	535	88	280	36	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	126	108	22	5	0	2	13	32	4	7	0	204	310	306	615	102	261	25	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	27	26	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		147	48	4	80	-60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	126	108	22	5	0	2	13	32	4	7	0	204	310	306	615	102	261	25	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	27	26	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		147	48	4	80	-60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		286	27	9	271	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	22%	194	175	37	7	1	3	15	55	2	4	1	211	281	314	596	103	286	28	8	273	71	-7	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	22%	42	38	9	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	237	310	368	678	132	288	29	7	265	71	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	42	38	9	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	237	310	368	678	132	320	29	7	265	52	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	139	31	0	15	46	186	15	15	0	236	308	366	673	129	320	29	7	265	52	-22	+3	-7	+2	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	906	811	146	30	1	15	72	309	17	30	5	180	261	275	536	95	267	34	8	245	52	-7	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	106	22	1	11	52	222	12	22	4	182	263	280	543	98	270	34	8	245	52	-22	+1	-7	+2	+14	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Arias (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	207/280/310	103	286	2	3	29%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	40	40	47→55	44	198/266/286	88	273	8	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/268/296	95	308	8	10	35%	7%	61	-1.5	157/228/221	64	263	4	5	39%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	49	198/286/319	122	254	12	5	26%	9%	74	-0.5	216/298/331	115	289	12	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	197/296/255	58	267	7	0	26%	12%	61	-0.3
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	42	41→45	51→50	42	202/266/300	98	286	8	10	31%	7%	61	-1.5	191/256/277	86	314	7	8	38%	7%	52	-2.2	135/207/179	44	258	2	2	44%	8%	11	-2.1
✕Jeff Mathis 2012 · MLB	29	38→46	41→50	43→45	41	191/242/288	96	249	9	6	27%	6%	49	-2.4	204/257/329	125	273	14	4	29%	6%	64	-1.3	210/260/314	105	285	8	1	28%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Tony Thomas 2015 · AAA	29	40→46	45→50	56→55	36	201/246/330	129	284	11	14	33%	5%	59	-1.6	213/256/339	126	315	11	11	34%	5%	65	-1.2	208/247/334	127	312	10	7	35%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	46→45	49→45	41	202/251/325	124	250	14	9	26%	5%	61	-1.5	201/247/324	123	254	12	9	25%	5%	59	-1.7	178/216/303	125	218	11	6	24%	4%	38	-1.3
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	38	44→45	47→50	42	193/261/309	116	251	13	9	28%	6%	61	-1.5	213/285/338	125	283	14	11	28%	7%	78	-0.3	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA	29	45	44→45	48→40	38	223/260/344	121	297	12	8	29%	5%	68	-1.0	242/284/405	163	318	20	10	30%	5%	93	+0.8	236/273/389	152	303	20	5	29%	3%	82	+0.0
✕René Rivera 2012 · MLB	29	43→33	45→55	46→30	40	216/259/340	123	270	13	3	25%	5%	68	-1.0	231/281/355	124	284	12	3	22%	6%	79	-0.2	238/298/393	156	304	23	0	29%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	40→45	43→45	49→55	41	197/267/307	110	285	11	17	34%	7%	63	-1.3	210/296/321	111	330	11	25	36%	10%	78	-0.3	196/292/297	101	315	10	32	37%	10%	69	-0.4
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→45	47→30	44	203/271/323	120	265	10	6	26%	7%	68	-1.0	218/281/348	130	303	14	6	31%	7%	78	-0.3	206/269/329	123	290	16	0	33%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Tyler Payne 2022 · AA	29	42	42→45	49→40	37	209/252/318	109	290	10	5	31%	5%	59	-1.6	234/273/332	98	317	8	5	27%	5%	70	-0.8	240/276/327	87	311	7	2	24%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→45	47→55	48→50	44	214/281/347	133	264	14	11	25%	6%	78	-0.3	205/271/329	124	273	14	10	29%	7%	70	-0.8	191/262/312	122	255	14	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA	29	44→40	47→50	49→40	40	224/265/356	132	284	15	6	27%	5%	73	-0.6	220/266/364	144	250	18	4	20%	6%	76	-0.4	210/256/355	145	226	20	0	18%	5%	68	-1.0
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Clint Sammons 2012 · AAA	29	35→45	43→40	44→45	43	181/241/285	104	224	12	8	26%	6%	49	-2.4	202/250/335	133	276	17	8	32%	5%	63	-1.3	148/174/263	115	189	19	0	35%	2%	16	-1.2
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	218/274/342	124	296	11	16	30%	5%	74	-0.6	235/293/378	143	305	15	19	27%	6%	89	+0.5	203/276/332	129	289	14	30	33%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Sebastian Valle 2019 · AAA	29	44→46	42→45	48→40	38	213/264/316	103	319	10	7	35%	6%	63	-1.3	233/301/370	137	299	15	7	26%	8%	91	+0.6	229/302/365	137	289	15	4	25%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→45	48→55	41	179/243/283	104	257	11	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	188/252/274	86	270	7	15	31%	7%	50	-2.3	156/222/216	60	225	4	19	31%	6%	24	-2.1