Bryan Arias — OGILVIE

Bryan Arias2B FCL Astros

Age 29 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .277 / .310

PA136

HR2

K%29

BB%8

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	A	3 teams	—	202	183	28	3	0	6	15	83	3	8	3	153	229	268	497	115	234	41	7	219	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A	3 teams	—	202	176	37	5	0	10	22	60	3	8	3	210	308	409	718	199	255	30	11	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	310	53	14	0	5	25	142	8	11	1	171	251	265	515	94	289	41	7	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	291	64	17	0	6	43	98	8	11	1	220	335	340	675	120	305	28	12	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	126	110	22	5	0	2	12	31	4	7	0	200	302	300	602	100	260	25	10	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	126	103	25	6	0	3	19	26	4	7	0	243	381	388	769	146	297	21	15	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK	FCL Astros	—	27	26	2	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	77	111	77	188		154	48	4	81	-80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	ROK	FCL Astros	—	27	26	3	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	115	148	115	264		176	33	4	126	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	HOU	—	136	123	26	5	1	2	10	40	2	3	1	211	281	317	599	106	286	29	7	268	64	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	HOU	22%	194	175	37	7	1	3	15	56	2	4	1	211	281	314	596	103	286	29	8	271	66	-8	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.3
2027	30	MLB	HOU	22%	42	38	9	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	237	310	368	678	132	288	29	7	265	61	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	42	38	9	2	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	237	310	368	678	132	320	29	7	265	61	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	139	31	0	15	46	186	15	15	0	236	308	366	673	129	320	29	7	265	61	-29	+3	-7	+2	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	1031	927	168	34	2	18	78	365	19	33	6	181	259	280	539	99	273	35	8	241	43	-67	+4	-2	+4	+29	-3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	105	21	1	11	49	230	12	21	4	180	257	276	533	96	272	35	8	241	43	-42	+3	-1	+2	+18	-2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	58	47	9	0	2	9	18	1	1	1	191	333	319	652	128	259	31	16	302	89	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2021	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	64	59	14	3	5	4	20	1	1	0	237	297	542	839	305	265	31	6	363	136	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2021	24	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	80	70	14	2	3	9	22	1	6	2	200	300	357	657	157	244	28	11	300	87	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	346	291	64	17	6	43	98	8	11	1	220	335	340	675	120	305	28	12	310	95	-2	+2	—	—	+10	1.0
2023	26	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	86	70	17	3	3	14	18	2	6	0	243	384	414	798	171	286	21	16	364	137	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2023	26	ROK	FCL Astros	—	40	33	8	3	0	5	8	2	1	0	242	375	333	708	91	320	20	12	333	113	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	27	ROK	FCL Astros	—	27	26	3	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	115	148	115	264		176	33	4	126	-45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Arias (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	207/277/310	103	286	2	3	29%	8%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	38	40	47→55	43	190/255/276	86	266	8	13	31%	7%	45	-2.1	197/261/293	96	305	9	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	152/225/219	67	257	5	5	40%	6%	15	-1.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	41→42	41→45	51→50	41	201/265/300	99	287	8	10	31%	7%	56	-1.3	188/252/274	86	318	7	8	40%	7%	43	-2.2	130/202/174	44	264	1	2	47%	8%	-5	-2.2
✕Jeff Mathis 2012 · MLB	29	38→46	42→50	43→45	41	192/242/290	98	250	9	6	27%	6%	43	-2.2	205/257/330	125	274	14	4	29%	6%	59	-1.1	211/261/316	106	287	8	1	28%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	39→43	43→45	49→55	40	193/262/301	108	283	11	17	34%	7%	55	-1.4	210/295/327	117	333	12	25	37%	9%	76	+0.0	198/294/307	109	322	11	32	38%	10%	68	-0.2
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Tyler Payne 2022 · AA	29	42	43→45	48→40	36	208/251/319	110	295	10	5	32%	5%	53	-1.5	235/274/338	103	323	9	5	29%	4%	69	-0.4	241/277/335	94	316	8	2	25%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Tony Thomas 2015 · AAA	29	40→46	46→50	56→55	35	203/245/338	135	293	12	14	35%	5%	56	-1.3	213/255/343	130	326	12	11	36%	5%	62	-0.9	207/246/338	132	324	10	7	38%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA	28	41	43→50	47→30	43	202/267/321	119	264	10	6	27%	7%	63	-0.9	218/278/353	135	306	15	6	32%	7%	75	-0.0	206/269/340	134	293	18	0	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB	28	41	39→45	42→40	39	200/246/285	85	278	6	5	30%	5%	43	-2.2	222/278/307	85	291	5	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	216/271/282	67	281	3	2	23%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2015 · AAA	29	43	43→45	47→50	37	217/249/317	99	271	12	8	25%	3%	52	-1.6	223/267/352	129	282	15	14	26%	5%	69	-0.4	216/263/349	133	256	17	24	23%	4%	63	-0.2
✕Clint Sammons 2012 · AAA	29	34→44	45→40	44→45	42	182/239/296	114	224	14	8	26%	6%	44	-2.1	203/247/342	139	274	18	8	32%	5%	59	-1.1	156/183/282	126	198	20	0	34%	2%	14	-1.0
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA	29	37	45	47→40	39	194/245/315	121	274	14	4	34%	6%	51	-1.7	195/251/321	126	280	15	5	34%	7%	55	-1.4	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	41	184/246/294	109	250	11	13	30%	6%	46	-2.0	193/261/313	120	273	13	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	153/230/258	105	221	12	16	35%	6%	28	-1.2
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Gift Ngoepe 2019 · MLB	29	40	43→45	45→50	40	191/261/300	110	318	10	7	41%	8%	54	-1.4	198/267/326	128	355	14	10	44%	8%	63	-0.8	149/225/281	131	281	18	8	50%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	38	216/271/341	125	296	11	16	30%	5%	69	-0.4	234/290/376	142	304	15	19	27%	5%	86	+0.8	205/277/331	127	291	13	30	32%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Anthony Bemboom 2020 · MLB	30	39	42→45	44→45	43	195/253/296	100	257	10	4	28%	7%	49	-1.8	210/278/339	129	269	14	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	209/279/326	117	268	12	2	26%	8%	66	-0.2