Bryan Arias2B
FCL Astros
Age 29
R/R
5'11" / 205 lbs
ROK
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .279 / .322
PA136
HR2
K%28
BB%7
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.1peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $0.0M | $0.0M | +$0.0M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A | 3 teams | 202 | 183 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 81 | 3 | 8 | 3 | .153 | .229 | .268 | .497 | .115 | .229 | 40 | 7 | .223 | 29 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 346 | 307 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 133 | 8 | 11 | 1 | .176 | .262 | .270 | .533 | .094 | .285 | 38 | 8 | .239 | 41 | -23 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +10 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 126 | 109 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 0 | .193 | .302 | .294 | .595 | .101 | .257 | 26 | 10 | .273 | 67 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .111 | .077 | .188 | .000 | .154 | 48 | 4 | .081 | -80 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 136 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .210 | .274 | .315 | .589 | .105 | .286 | 29 | 7 | .274 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB 7% | HOU | 194 | 175 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .217 | .286 | .337 | .624 | .120 | .286 | 28 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB 18% | HOU | 215 | 195 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .215 | .282 | .328 | .610 | .113 | .285 | 28 | 7 | .275 | 69 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB 27% | HOU | 218 | 197 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .213 | .282 | .325 | .607 | .112 | .284 | 28 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB 39% | HOU | 202 | 183 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .208 | .275 | .306 | .581 | .098 | .283 | 29 | 7 | .269 | 64 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB 48% | HOU | 170 | 153 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .209 | .280 | .320 | .600 | .111 | .281 | 30 | 8 | .263 | 59 | -8 | +0 | -5 | +1 | +5 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1836 | 1652 | 323 | 63 | 6 | 33 | 143 | 585 | 26 | 37 | 6 | .196 | .270 | .301 | .571 | .105 | .278 | 32 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -93 | +5 | -17 | +7 | +52 | -4.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 585 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 207 | 9 | 13 | 2 | .195 | .270 | .301 | .571 | .106 | .276 | 32 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -33 | +2 | -6 | +2 | +18 | -1.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 58 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .191 | .333 | .319 | .652 | .128 | .259 | 31 | 16 | .302 | 89 | -1 | -0 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 64 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .237 | .297 | .542 | .839 | .305 | .265 | 31 | 6 | .363 | 136 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 80 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 2 | .200 | .300 | .357 | .657 | .157 | .244 | 28 | 11 | .300 | 87 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 346 | 291 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 98 | 8 | 11 | 1 | .220 | .335 | .340 | .675 | .120 | .305 | 28 | 12 | .310 | 95 | -2 | +2 | — | — | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 86 | 70 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | .243 | .384 | .414 | .798 | .171 | .286 | 21 | 16 | .364 | 137 | +4 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | ROK | FCL Astros | 40 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .242 | .375 | .333 | .708 | .091 | .320 | 20 | 12 | .333 | 113 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | 27 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .115 | .148 | .115 | .264 | .000 | .176 | 33 | 4 | .126 | -45 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.4 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Bryan Arias (OGILVIE) | 29 | — | — | — | — | .211/.279/.322 | .110 | .286 | 2 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 68 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA |
30 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→50 | 42 | .195/.261/.312 | .117 | .253 | 13 | 10 | 28% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .211/.282/.335 | .124 | .279 | 14 | 11 | 28% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .212/.294/.334 | .122 | .284 | 13 | 9 | 28% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB |
29 | 42→41 | 45→55 | 49→50 | 40 | .211/.264/.333 | .122 | .283 | 13 | 11 | 30% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .207/.271/.370 | .163 | .326 | 22 | 14 | 41% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .151/.220/.316 | .164 | .233 | 26 | 18 | 47% | 7% | 40 | -0.9 |
|
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA |
29 | 40 | 40 | 47→55 | 44 | .195/.262/.284 | .089 | .273 | 9 | 13 | 30% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .197/.263/.291 | .094 | .306 | 9 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .156/.228/.224 | .068 | .265 | 5 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 17 | -1.2 |
|
✕Grayson Greiner 2022 · MLB |
29 | 40 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 40 | .200/.262/.313 | .113 | .299 | 13 | 4 | 36% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .195/.259/.307 | .112 | .360 | 12 | 6 | 45% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .163/.227/.268 | .105 | .321 | 15 | 3 | 51% | 7% | 28 | -0.9 |
|
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA |
28 | 38 | 44→45 | 48→30 | 43 | .197/.260/.308 | .111 | .260 | 13 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .211/.260/.328 | .117 | .271 | 13 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .210/.254/.324 | .114 | .266 | 12 | 1 | 25% | 5% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Brad Cresse 2006 · AAA |
28 | 41 | 44→50 | 48→30 | 43 | .204/.269/.324 | .120 | .267 | 10 | 7 | 27% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .215/.275/.352 | .137 | .301 | 15 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .205/.267/.343 | .138 | .291 | 19 | 0 | 35% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA |
29 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→40 | 40 | .194/.247/.308 | .114 | .270 | 12 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .198/.255/.324 | .126 | .283 | 16 | 5 | 34% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .183/.287/.336 | .152 | .261 | 22 | 8 | 36% | 11% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA |
29 | 38→44 | 47→50 | 50→45 | 41 | .201/.252/.331 | .130 | .251 | 16 | 9 | 27% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .202/.247/.332 | .130 | .256 | 13 | 9 | 26% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .183/.221/.321 | .138 | .225 | 13 | 6 | 25% | 4% | 37 | -1.1 |
|
✕Angelo Castellano 2023 · AAA |
28 | 38→42 | 41→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .193/.254/.284 | .092 | .249 | 10 | 12 | 26% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .221/.284/.356 | .135 | .267 | 16 | 14 | 23% | 8% | 78 | +0.2 | .228/.293/.382 | .154 | .263 | 20 | 15 | 22% | 8% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA |
29 | 42→43 | 41→45 | 51→50 | 41 | .203/.267/.304 | .100 | .289 | 8 | 10 | 31% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .186/.250/.270 | .084 | .313 | 6 | 8 | 39% | 7% | 41 | -2.3 | .127/.198/.171 | .044 | .256 | 2 | 2 | 47% | 8% | -7 | -2.3 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA |
28 | 39 | 46→50 | 48→40 | 48 | .200/.287/.330 | .129 | .255 | 14 | 5 | 26% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .215/.296/.335 | .120 | .285 | 13 | 7 | 27% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .199/.298/.266 | .067 | .267 | 9 | 0 | 27% | 12% | 60 | -0.2 |
|
✕Travis Garcia 2011 · AA |
29 | 44 | 46→50 | 48→40 | 37 | .223/.260/.350 | .127 | .301 | 13 | 8 | 30% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .246/.287/.427 | .181 | .319 | 24 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 98 | +1.6 | .243/.279/.416 | .173 | .307 | 24 | 5 | 29% | 3% | 90 | +0.4 |
|
✕Tyler Payne 2022 · AA |
29 | 42 | 43→45 | 48→40 | 37 | .209/.250/.322 | .113 | .287 | 11 | 4 | 31% | 4% | 54 | -1.4 | .231/.271/.334 | .103 | .320 | 8 | 5 | 29% | 4% | 66 | -0.6 | .238/.274/.333 | .095 | .312 | 8 | 2 | 25% | 4% | 62 | -0.3 |
|
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB |
29 | 38→45 | 45→50 | 54→50 | 37 | .192/.249/.311 | .118 | .281 | 13 | 12 | 35% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .183/.238/.309 | .126 | .331 | 15 | 9 | 47% | 5% | 47 | -1.9 | .155/.208/.283 | .128 | .303 | 17 | 5 | 52% | 4% | 25 | -2.6 |
|
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB |
28 | 37→39 | 46→50 | 46→45 | 50 | .191/.285/.319 | .128 | .261 | 14 | 9 | 31% | 11% | 70 | -0.3 | .189/.283/.313 | .124 | .261 | 14 | 10 | 31% | 11% | 68 | -0.5 | .168/.270/.287 | .119 | .228 | 14 | 8 | 31% | 11% | 54 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jeff Nettles 2008 · AA |
29 | 43→41 | 48→55 | 49→40 | 40 | .223/.264/.360 | .138 | .286 | 16 | 6 | 28% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .223/.269/.378 | .155 | .254 | 20 | 4 | 21% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .216/.263/.374 | .158 | .233 | 23 | 0 | 19% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 |
|
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA |
28 | 35→41 | 45→50 | 49→55 | 40 | .183/.244/.299 | .117 | .258 | 13 | 14 | 34% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .185/.247/.272 | .087 | .266 | 8 | 15 | 31% | 7% | 41 | -2.3 | .158/.224/.222 | .065 | .226 | 5 | 19 | 31% | 6% | 16 | -2.0 |
|
✕Tony Thomas 2015 · AAA |
29 | 40→46 | 46→50 | 56→55 | 36 | .203/.248/.338 | .135 | .289 | 12 | 15 | 34% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .210/.253/.342 | .132 | .318 | 12 | 11 | 36% | 5% | 61 | -1.0 | .203/.242/.337 | .134 | .313 | 12 | 7 | 38% | 4% | 52 | -1.0 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA |
28 | 39→37 | 49→50 | 51→50 | 36 | .205/.244/.348 | .143 | .271 | 17 | 12 | 31% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .225/.280/.351 | .126 | .287 | 13 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .235/.302/.339 | .104 | .296 | 10 | 6 | 23% | 6% | 79 | +0.1 |
|
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA |
28 | 43→46 | 41→45 | 51→50 | 47 | .206/.279/.307 | .101 | .275 | 8 | 8 | 27% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .196/.273/.279 | .083 | .270 | 6 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 54 | -1.4 | .174/.259/.229 | .054 | .247 | 4 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 33 | -1.3 |