Cael Brockmeyer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AATennessee Smo… | 215 | .179/.256/.308 | 6 | 0 | 25 | — | .150/.209/.255 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 254 | .304/.381/.415 | 4 | 3 | 76 | — | .246/.309/.328 |
| 2019 | 27 | AABowie Baysox | 32 | .107/.194/.143 | 0 | 1 | -24 | — | .103/.161/.138 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 292 | 256 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 373 | 461 | 834 | 164 | 332 | 16 | 6 | 367 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 24 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 304 | 476 | 781 | 238 | 235 | 17 | 8 | 327 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 145 | 120 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 217 | 333 | 342 | 675 | 125 | 258 | 22 | 12 | 304 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 267 | 237 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 356 | 414 | 769 | 139 | 349 | 22 | 10 | 347 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 36 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 306 | 258 | 564 | 65 | 240 | 17 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 98 | 92 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 276 | 348 | 623 | 120 | 333 | 32 | 6 | 279 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 44 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 317 | 364 | 537 | 900 | 220 | 355 | 18 | 2 | 396 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 92 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 297 | 367 | 664 | 177 | 193 | 21 | 11 | 299 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 215 | 195 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 308 | 564 | 128 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 258 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 44 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 415 | 455 | 537 | 991 | 122 | 548 | 23 | 7 | 440 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 210 | 183 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 279 | 365 | 388 | 753 | 109 | 373 | 26 | 8 | 341 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 194 | 143 | 336 | 36 | 143 | 25 | 6 | 163 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 292 | 262 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 314 | 378 | 691 | 130 | 290 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 455 | 715 | 227 | 213 | 21 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 145 | 127 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 270 | 299 | 569 | 110 | 231 | 30 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 267 | 247 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 258 | 287 | 546 | 89 | 282 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 98 | 95 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 214 | 295 | 509 | 105 | 308 | 40 | 3 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 44 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 318 | 415 | 733 | 146 | 324 | 23 | 2 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 92 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 220 | 277 | 497 | 133 | 159 | 30 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 215 | 200 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 209 | 255 | 464 | 105 | 201 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 44 | 42 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 364 | 429 | 792 | 95 | 479 | 30 | 5 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 210 | 189 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 70 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 298 | 307 | 605 | 79 | 331 | 33 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 32 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 138 | 299 | 34 | 127 | 31 | 3 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 292 | 262 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 314 | 378 | 691 | 130 | 307 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 292 | 256 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 373 | 461 | 834 | 164 | 332 | 16 | 6 | 367 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 472 | 427 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 143 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 197 | 266 | 302 | 568 | 105 | 270 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A RAW | 4 teams | — | 472 | 409 | 102 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 102 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 249 | 343 | 384 | 726 | 134 | 307 | 22 | 11 | 327 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 234 | 220 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 232 | 309 | 541 | 123 | 257 | 32 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 234 | 212 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 300 | 392 | 692 | 160 | 284 | 25 | 7 | 309 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 215 | 200 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 209 | 255 | 464 | 105 | 203 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 215 | 195 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 308 | 564 | 128 | 221 | 27 | 7 | 258 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 231 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 83 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 329 | 639 | 82 | 367 | 33 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 224 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 65 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 304 | 381 | 415 | 796 | 112 | 408 | 26 | 8 | 358 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 32 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 138 | 299 | 34 | 150 | 31 | 3 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 194 | 143 | 336 | 36 | 143 | 25 | 6 | 163 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 292 | 265 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 314 | 374 | 687 | 128 | 290 | 24 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | 4 teams | — | 472 | 429 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 143 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 196 | 266 | 301 | 566 | 105 | 261 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 234 | 219 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 232 | 311 | 542 | 123 | 252 | 32 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 215 | 198 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 209 | 258 | 467 | 106 | 201 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 231 | 57 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 83 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 329 | 639 | 82 | 357 | 33 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 32 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 161 | 133 | 295 | 33 | 127 | 31 | 3 | 132 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1499 | 1369 | 280 | 56 | 5 | 27 | 76 | 453 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 205 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 107 | 280 | 30 | 5 | 252 | 56 | -78 | +1 | +0 | +27 | +32 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 121 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 196 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 108 | 278 | 30 | 5 | 252 | 56 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AABowie Baysox · 32 PAwOBA .165 → .132 (−33)K% 25.0% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.940 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 9.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .165 → .132; ISO .036 → .029; BABIP .143 → .127. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATulsa Drillers · 210 PAwOBA .336 → .268 (−68)K% 26.2% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.19% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.10% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.81% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 3.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.47% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 27.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.991 | ×0.840 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.940 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.147 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 81, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .336 → .268; ISO .109 → .077; BABIP .373 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 44 PAwOBA .429 → .337 (−91)K% 22.7% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 30.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.71% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 35.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 12.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .429 → .337; ISO .122 → .089; BABIP .548 → .479. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATennessee Smokies · 215 PAwOBA .249 → .205 (−44)K% 27.0% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷0.976 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 4.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.79% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 15.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.023 | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .249 → .205; ISO .128 → .107; BABIP .221 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 98 PAwOBA .263 → .221 (−42)K% 31.6% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.63% | ÷1.037 | ×1.290 | — | — | 39.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷1.034 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 2.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.945 | ×0.810 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .263 → .221; ISO .120 → .101; BABIP .333 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 92 PAwOBA .294 → .205 (−89)K% 20.7% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷0.965 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 12.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 2.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.800 | ×0.960 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.311 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 4.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 109, 2B 84, 3B 108, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .294 → .205; ISO .177 → .116; BABIP .193 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATennessee Smokies · 44 PAwOBA .384 → .325 (−59)K% 18.2% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.27% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 3.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 21.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 8.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.57% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .384 → .325; ISO .220 → .176; BABIP .355 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ASouth Bend Cubs · 267 PAwOBA .336 → .244 (−92)K% 22.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.47% | ÷0.984 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.74% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.29% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 20.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷1.109 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.073 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×0.980 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 2.08% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 115, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .336 → .244; ISO .139 → .095; BABIP .349 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).