Jaison Chourio

OF Akron RubberDucks

Age 22 S/R 6'0" / 194 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#532ETA2029MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ALynchburg Hil…	432	.269/.423/.398	5	44	105	—	.247/.357/.366
2025	20	A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs	571	.267/.391/.333	4	19	88	—	.205/.314/.248
2026	21	AA/A+CLE	522	.274/.379/.408	9	42	98	—	.260/.336/.377
2027PROJ6% MLB	22	MLBCLE	13	.227/.317/.317	0	1	83	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	23	MLBCLE	183	.232/.322/.336	3	7	89	0.1
2029PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBCLE	254	.235/.325/.348	5	10	93	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed87

Whiff%78

BB%76

Chase%76

K%68

Z-Con%67

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 74%

CompsJakob Marsee (age 22) · Roman Quinn (age 22) · Dalton Pompey (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .317 / .317

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP294

ISO82

MLB%6%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Red	—	175	132	37	7	3	1	40	22	1	14	4	280	451	402	852	121	324	13	23	389	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	42	35	7	1	0	0	6	15	0	1	0	200	317	229	546	29	333	36	14	260	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	189	149	52	12	1	1	38	37	0	19	2	349	481	463	944	114	451	20	20	423	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	11	3	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	273	529	273	802		300	6	35	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	334	90	24	2	5	86	69	3	44	11	269	423	398	821	129	316	16	20	370	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	353	285	67	6	1	2	66	77	1	9	7	235	381	284	665	49	314	22	19	319	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	27	23	6	1	0	0	4	10	0	1	0	261	370	304	675	43	462	37	15	319	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	191	164	53	6	2	2	25	31	0	9	1	323	413	421	833	98	383	16	13	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	420	359	95	19	3	7	56	89	0	32	5	265	364	393	757	128	332	21	13	340	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	102	82	26	7	0	2	18	18	0	10	4	317	440	476	916	159	375	18	18	403	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Red	—	175	143	27	5	2	0	29	26	1	14	4	189	329	252	581	63	224	15	17	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	42	37	6	1	0	0	4	21	0	1	0	162	244	189	433	27	319	50	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	189	164	43	9	1	1	23	53	0	19	2	262	353	348	701	85	374	28	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	361	89	24	2	5	59	95	3	44	11	247	357	366	723	119	299	22	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	353	302	63	5	1	2	49	96	1	9	7	209	321	252	573	43	293	27	14	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	27	25	4	1	0	0	2	14	0	1	0	160	222	200	422	40	375	52	7	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	420	375	96	18	3	6	40	109	0	32	5	256	328	368	696	112	337	26	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	102	87	24	6	0	2	13	23	0	10	4	276	370	414	784	138	336	23	13	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Red	—	175	143	27	5	2	0	29	26	1	14	4	189	329	252	581	63	227	15	17	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Red	—	175	132	37	7	3	1	40	22	1	14	4	280	451	402	852	121	324	13	23	389	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	248	215	53	11	1	1	30	79	0	20	2	247	339	321	660	74	377	32	12	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	248	195	62	13	1	1	50	53	0	20	2	318	457	410	867	92	424	21	20	394	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	361	89	24	2	5	59	95	3	44	11	247	357	366	723	119	311	22	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	334	90	24	2	5	86	69	3	44	11	269	423	398	821	129	316	16	20	370	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	571	489	99	8	1	2	78	165	1	19	8	202	313	235	549	33	298	29	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	571	472	126	13	3	4	95	118	1	19	8	267	391	333	723	66	346	21	17	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	522	462	120	24	3	7	53	132	0	42	9	260	336	370	706	110	346	25	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	522	441	121	26	3	9	74	107	0	42	9	274	379	408	787	134	340	20	14	352	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Red	—	175	143	27	5	2	0	29	26	1	14	4	189	329	252	581	63	224	15	17	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	248	216	53	11	1	1	30	79	0	20	2	245	339	319	658	74	364	32	12	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	367	89	24	2	5	59	95	3	44	11	243	357	360	717	117	299	22	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	571	487	99	8	1	2	78	165	1	19	8	203	313	236	550	33	299	29	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	522	464	120	24	3	7	53	132	0	42	9	259	336	369	704	110	337	25	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	432	367	89	24	2	5	59	95	3	44	11	243	357	360	717	117	299	22	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	571	487	99	8	1	2	78	165	1	19	8	203	313	236	550	33	299	29	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	522	464	120	24	3	7	53	132	0	42	9	259	336	369	704	110	337	25	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	6%	621	544	123	22	3	7	71	147	1	25	7	227	317	318	634	91	294	24	11	291	83	-13	+2	-2	-4	+13	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	6%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	227	317	317	634	90	294	23	8	291	83	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	37%	496	436	101	18	2	8	56	115	1	20	5	232	321	337	658	105	295	23	11	300	89	-6	+2	-1	-3	+11	0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	47%	537	470	112	20	3	10	61	123	1	21	6	235	324	349	673	113	296	23	11	305	93	-5	+2	-1	-3	+12	0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	560	490	117	21	3	11	63	128	2	21	6	237	325	355	681	119	296	23	11	308	95	-4	+2	-0	-3	+12	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	578	507	120	21	3	11	64	132	2	21	6	237	325	358	683	121	295	23	11	309	95	-3	+2	-0	-3	+13	0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	582	511	122	22	3	12	64	133	2	20	5	236	324	358	682	121	294	23	11	308	95	-4	+2	-0	-3	+13	0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	576	506	119	21	3	11	63	133	2	17	5	234	322	353	675	118	293	23	11	306	93	-5	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	562	493	113	20	2	10	62	132	2	14	4	232	319	346	665	114	292	23	11	302	90	-6	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	550	484	111	20	2	10	60	131	1	11	4	229	315	338	654	109	290	24	11	297	87	-8	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	37%	183	160	38	7	1	3	21	43	0	7	2	232	322	336	657	104	295	23	11	300	89	-2	+1	-0	-1	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	47%	254	222	52	9	1	5	29	58	1	10	3	235	325	348	672	112	296	23	11	305	93	-2	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	292	256	61	11	1	6	33	67	1	11	3	237	326	354	680	117	296	23	11	308	95	-2	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	315	276	65	12	1	6	35	72	1	11	3	237	325	357	682	120	295	23	11	309	95	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	316	277	65	12	1	6	35	72	1	11	3	237	324	357	681	120	295	23	11	308	95	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	313	275	65	12	1	6	34	72	1	9	3	235	322	352	674	117	294	23	11	305	93	-3	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	299	263	61	11	1	6	33	70	1	7	2	232	319	346	665	113	293	23	11	302	90	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	288	254	58	10	1	5	31	68	1	6	2	229	316	338	653	109	291	24	11	297	87	-4	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2260	1983	465	84	8	43	251	522	7	72	21	234	323	350	673	115	295	23	11	305	90	-21	+6	-3	-14	+49	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	133	24	2	12	72	150	2	21	6	233	321	346	667	112	294	23	11	305	90	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6599	5751	1344	242	31	100	766	1574	18	292	77	234	326	339	664	105	302	24	12	301	90	-45	+13	-7	-28	+101	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	133	24	3	10	75	155	2	29	8	235	326	341	667	106	304	24	12	301	90	-6	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 420 PAwOBA .332 → .305 (−27)K% 21.2% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.19%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.10%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.026	×1.050	25.55%
Doubles /BIP	7.04%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.026	×1.050	6.52%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.026	×1.050	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	2.59%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.12%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .332 → .305; ISO .128 → .114; BABIP .332 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 102 PAwOBA .401 → .342 (−59)K% 17.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.027	12.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.56%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.988	×1.027	24.79%
Doubles /BIP	10.94%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.988	×1.027	8.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.988	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.57%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .401 → .342; ISO .159 → .134; BABIP .375 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 353 PAwOBA .313 → .265 (−48)K% 21.8% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.81%	÷1.020	×1.270	—	—	27.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.70%	÷0.991	×0.710	—	×1.042	13.95%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.23%
Singles /BIP	27.88%	÷1.031	×0.920	×1.023	×1.042	26.53%
Doubles /BIP	2.88%	÷1.138	×0.810	×1.023	×1.042	2.19%
Triples /BIP	0.48%	÷0.952	×0.850	×1.023	×1.042	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.96%	÷1.011	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.79%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .313 → .265; ISO .049 → .040; BABIP .314 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 27 PAwOBA .311 → .201 (−110)K% 37.0% → 51.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.04%	÷1.041	×1.440	—	—	51.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.81%	÷1.018	×0.620	—	×0.995	8.98%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷0.985	×0.820	—	×0.995	31.85%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.982	×0.720	—	×0.995	5.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.075	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.388	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .311 → .201; ISO .043 → .026; BABIP .462 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 432 PAwOBA .369 → .323 (−46)K% 16.0% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷0.985	×1.360	—	—	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.68%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.045	13.63%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.57%
Singles /BIP	22.26%	÷1.056	×0.920	×1.031	×1.045	20.90%
Doubles /BIP	9.06%	÷0.941	×0.830	×1.031	×1.045	8.60%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷0.906	×0.910	×1.031	×1.045	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷0.844	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.87%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .369 → .323; ISO .129 → .131; BABIP .316 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Guardians · 189 PAwOBA .418 → .315 (−103)K% 19.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.58%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	28.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.11%	÷1.030	×0.620	—	×1.022	12.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.93%	÷1.024	×0.820	×1.033	×1.022	28.70%
Doubles /BIP	10.71%	÷0.967	×0.720	×1.033	×1.022	8.42%
Triples /BIP	0.89%	÷0.925	×0.720	×1.033	×1.022	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	0.89%	÷1.349	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.53%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 170, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .418 → .315; ISO .114 → .087; BABIP .451 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 42 PAwOBA .260 → .202 (−58)K% 35.7% → 49.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.71%	÷0.981	×1.360	—	—	49.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷0.992	×0.920	—	×1.050	29.21%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.947	×0.830	—	×1.050	4.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.982	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 96, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .260 → .202; ISO .029 → .022; BABIP .333 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL CLE Red · 175 PAwOBA .385 → .279 (−106)K% 12.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.57%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	15.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.86%	÷1.002	×0.700	—	×1.022	16.33%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.41%
Singles /BIP	23.64%	÷1.017	×0.680	×1.034	×1.022	16.72%
Doubles /BIP	6.36%	÷0.987	×0.600	×1.034	×1.022	4.09%
Triples /BIP	2.73%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.034	×1.022	1.92%
Home runs /BIP	0.91%	÷1.187	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.37%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .385 → .279; ISO .121 → .082; BABIP .324 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Billy Hatcher'84-'95 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,752 PA	7.2	4,752	54	218	261*	310*	385*	-20	-5	4.9	6.8
/162	664	8	30	-2.9	-0.7	0.7	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.4	2,273	42	73	235	320	351	-14	-1	3.5	3.4
/162	664	12	21	-4.0	-0.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jaison Chourio (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	224/314/315	91	294	2	8	24%	11%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Roman Quinn 2015 · A	22	47→57	41→45	55→65	43	226/294/324	98	311	9	28	29%	7%	77	-0.3	254/309/356	102	342	7	35	26%	7%	88	+0.5	269/321/372	103	361	6	42	25%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	45→55	40→45	57→55	45	215/282/314	100	299	6	21	29%	8%	70	-0.9	257/316/365	108	333	7	26	23%	8%	93	+0.8	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Trevor Crowe 2007 · AA	23	52→56	39→45	57→55	51	246/313/339	92	307	5	29	21%	9%	86	+0.3	255/313/358	103	310	6	23	18%	8%	91	+0.7	259/318/364	105	312	6	23	18%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	49→51	39→45	57→55	44	230/286/323	92	310	5	24	26%	7%	72	-0.7	229/287/333	104	299	7	20	24%	7%	76	-0.4	228/286/332	104	292	8	18	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Leody Taveras 2021 · MLB	22	48→55	40→50	55	43	227/277/319	92	307	7	20	28%	7%	68	-1.0	233/287/372	139	306	14	19	27%	7%	85	+0.2	251/301/382	131	311	12	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Jorge Barrosa 2023 · AA	22	49→52	44→45	50→55	47	237/300/356	119	289	10	20	21%	7%	86	+0.3	235/304/357	122	293	10	16	22%	8%	88	+0.4	235/305/352	118	296	10	14	23%	9%	84	+0.2
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	51→58	39→45	58→60	51	240/305/333	93	302	5	22	21%	9%	82	-0.0	250/306/350	100	317	7	27	22%	8%	86	+0.3	260/322/390	130	293	10	24	14%	8%	102	+1.4
✕Alejandro Ortiz 2013 · AAA	23	52→60	42→40	58→50	45	248/303/358	110	308	9	24	22%	6%	87	+0.4	235/289/346	111	325	8	17	28%	6%	79	-0.2	279/332/373	94	377	7	11	26%	6%	100	+0.6
✕Darnell Sweeney 2013 · A	22	49→51	41→50	58→55	46	236/292/339	103	298	8	21	23%	7%	79	-0.2	232/286/361	129	319	10	22	29%	7%	82	-0.0	230/286/363	133	314	11	23	29%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Antoan Richardson 2006 · A	22	52→58	35→40	59→60	50	236/321/295	59	323	3	29	26%	10%	80	-0.1	242/317/308	66	321	3	34	23%	8%	82	-0.0	254/346/314	60	335	1	30	22%	11%	90	+0.4
✕Alex Freeland 2024 · A	22	44→48	42→45	54→55	43	207/282/308	101	319	10	22	36%	9%	69	-0.9	224/310/353	129	306	13	19	28%	10%	90	+0.6	226/317/359	132	301	13	18	27%	11%	92	+0.7
✕Shawn O'Malley 2011 · AA	23	47→57	35→40	57→60	47	217/301/275	58	294	2	26	25%	8%	69	-0.9	233/296/303	70	299	3	24	21%	7%	72	-0.7	259/320/356	97	321	5	23	20%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	52→60	41→45	60→65	49	249/307/353	105	298	7	34	19%	7%	88	+0.4	226/286/340	114	274	10	36	20%	7%	78	-0.3	228/301/339	111	280	8	25	20%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Cliff Pennington 2006 · A	22	48→54	38→45	52→55	50	226/290/304	78	278	6	20	20%	8%	70	-0.8	219/290/299	80	269	5	16	19%	9%	70	-0.9	247/310/354	107	294	7	24	18%	8%	89	+0.5
●Brett Bateman 2024 · A	22	51→61	37→30	54→55	55	238/324/309	70	307	4	18	22%	11%	84	+0.2	252/333/313	61	337	3	21	23%	11%	88	+0.5	267/352/328	61	355	3	23	23%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	48→58	38→30	56→70	48	226/293/312	85	299	4	17	24%	8%	73	-0.6	267/311/317	50	307	1	59	12%	6%	80	-0.2	302/334/348	46	335	0	63	9%	5%	94	+0.8
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→60	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	76	-0.4	240/303/330	90	313	4	33	22%	8%	81	-0.1	266/331/350	84	338	3	54	21%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	44→52	39→45	58→55	46	208/280/301	93	279	6	17	26%	8%	66	-1.1	228/306/313	85	303	5	16	24%	9%	78	-0.3	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
●Ruben Sosa 2014 · AAA	23	49→54	36→45	55→60	45	227/289/298	71	321	3	25	28%	8%	68	-1.0	245/302/349	104	338	5	32	27%	7%	84	+0.2	269/335/371	102	339	5	31	21%	7%	99	+0.8

Jaison Chourio

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps