Carlos Sanchez
SS Dayton Dragons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKCIN | 308 | .211/.358/.252 | 1 | 10 | 39 | — | .171/.278/.201 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/ACIN | 492 | .277/.379/.412 | 8 | 20 | 88 | — | .250/.330/.359 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 635 | .273/.381/.458 | 20 | 28 | 102 | — | .242/.322/.382 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBCIN | 1 | .201/.284/.318 | 0 | 0 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBCIN | 174 | .206/.289/.333 | 4 | 4 | 74 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBCIN | 248 | .210/.294/.343 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 182 | 138 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 355 | 508 | 442 | 950 | 87 | 431 | 15 | 22 | 434 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 19 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 316 | 312 | 628 | 125 | 375 | 42 | 16 | 293 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 175 | 128 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 44 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 281 | 463 | 445 | 908 | 164 | 422 | 25 | 25 | 411 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 124 | 104 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 366 | 356 | 722 | 106 | 351 | 25 | 15 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 220 | 176 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 73 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 210 | 356 | 233 | 589 | 23 | 359 | 33 | 18 | 286 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 88 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 360 | 300 | 660 | 86 | 304 | 27 | 18 | 307 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 228 | 201 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 244 | 320 | 373 | 693 | 129 | 312 | 24 | 10 | 309 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 264 | 214 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 67 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 308 | 431 | 449 | 879 | 140 | 431 | 25 | 17 | 391 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 254 | 215 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 70 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 335 | 358 | 693 | 144 | 283 | 28 | 15 | 318 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 325 | 278 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 77 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 313 | 409 | 504 | 912 | 191 | 406 | 24 | 14 | 401 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 56 | 46 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 304 | 429 | 652 | 1.081 | 348 | 323 | 20 | 18 | 461 | 198 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 182 | 151 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 245 | 370 | 298 | 668 | 53 | 301 | 19 | 15 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 19 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 176 | 387 | 59 | 315 | 58 | 11 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 175 | 147 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 204 | 331 | 313 | 644 | 109 | 342 | 35 | 15 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 220 | 187 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 100 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 176 | 287 | 193 | 480 | 16 | 371 | 45 | 13 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 88 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 256 | 224 | 479 | 66 | 255 | 40 | 11 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 228 | 208 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 226 | 284 | 332 | 616 | 106 | 312 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 264 | 225 | 61 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 91 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 271 | 369 | 382 | 751 | 111 | 417 | 34 | 13 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 254 | 226 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 85 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 199 | 287 | 323 | 610 | 124 | 283 | 33 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 325 | 290 | 80 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 98 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 276 | 350 | 428 | 777 | 152 | 387 | 30 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 182 | 151 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 245 | 370 | 298 | 668 | 53 | 310 | 19 | 15 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 182 | 138 | 49 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 355 | 508 | 442 | 950 | 87 | 431 | 15 | 22 | 434 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 318 | 269 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 119 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 190 | 312 | 286 | 599 | 97 | 333 | 37 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 3 teams | — | 318 | 248 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 83 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 262 | 416 | 399 | 816 | 137 | 388 | 26 | 21 | 372 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 263 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 135 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 175 | 281 | 205 | 487 | 30 | 352 | 44 | 12 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 308 | 246 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 55 | 97 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 211 | 358 | 252 | 610 | 41 | 342 | 31 | 18 | 292 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 433 | 107 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 159 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 247 | 328 | 356 | 683 | 109 | 374 | 32 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 492 | 415 | 115 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 67 | 121 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 277 | 379 | 412 | 791 | 135 | 372 | 25 | 14 | 353 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 635 | 566 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 67 | 201 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 239 | 319 | 375 | 694 | 136 | 345 | 32 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 635 | 539 | 147 | 26 | 7 | 20 | 94 | 158 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 273 | 381 | 458 | 839 | 186 | 352 | 25 | 15 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 182 | 150 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 247 | 370 | 300 | 670 | 53 | 301 | 19 | 15 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 3 teams | — | 318 | 267 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 119 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 191 | 312 | 288 | 601 | 97 | 339 | 37 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 266 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 135 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 173 | 281 | 203 | 484 | 30 | 338 | 44 | 12 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 437 | 107 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 159 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 245 | 328 | 352 | 680 | 108 | 368 | 32 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 635 | 563 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 67 | 201 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 240 | 319 | 377 | 696 | 137 | 341 | 32 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 266 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 135 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 173 | 281 | 203 | 484 | 30 | 338 | 44 | 12 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 492 | 437 | 107 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 159 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 245 | 328 | 352 | 680 | 108 | 368 | 32 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 635 | 563 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 67 | 201 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 240 | 319 | 377 | 696 | 137 | 341 | 32 | 11 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | CIN | 0% | 648 | 576 | 114 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 66 | 191 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 199 | 282 | 312 | 594 | 113 | 272 | 29 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -24 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | CIN | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 284 | 318 | 602 | 117 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 69 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 35% | 504 | 447 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 51 | 145 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 204 | 288 | 325 | 613 | 121 | 273 | 29 | 10 | 278 | 74 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +11 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 46% | 537 | 476 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 152 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 208 | 292 | 335 | 626 | 127 | 275 | 28 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 52% | 560 | 496 | 105 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 156 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 294 | 341 | 635 | 130 | 276 | 28 | 10 | 287 | 80 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 54% | 578 | 512 | 109 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 159 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 212 | 295 | 344 | 639 | 131 | 277 | 28 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 54% | 582 | 516 | 110 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 160 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 213 | 296 | 344 | 640 | 131 | 277 | 27 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 54% | 576 | 511 | 108 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 159 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 211 | 293 | 339 | 633 | 128 | 275 | 28 | 10 | 286 | 80 | -14 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 53% | 562 | 499 | 103 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 157 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 208 | 290 | 333 | 623 | 124 | 274 | 28 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -15 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 52% | 550 | 489 | 100 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 55 | 155 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 205 | 287 | 324 | 611 | 120 | 271 | 28 | 10 | 277 | 74 | -17 | -0 | -4 | +6 | +12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | CIN | 35% | 174 | 154 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 126 | 274 | 29 | 10 | 281 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 46% | 248 | 220 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 70 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 294 | 343 | 636 | 132 | 276 | 28 | 10 | 287 | 78 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 52% | 289 | 257 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 80 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 213 | 296 | 349 | 645 | 136 | 277 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 54% | 314 | 278 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 87 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 297 | 352 | 649 | 137 | 278 | 28 | 10 | 292 | 81 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 54% | 316 | 280 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 87 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 298 | 353 | 650 | 137 | 278 | 28 | 10 | 293 | 82 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 54% | 313 | 278 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 87 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 213 | 295 | 347 | 643 | 134 | 277 | 28 | 10 | 290 | 80 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 53% | 298 | 265 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 83 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 292 | 340 | 633 | 130 | 275 | 28 | 10 | 286 | 77 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 52% | 288 | 256 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 207 | 288 | 332 | 620 | 125 | 272 | 28 | 10 | 281 | 74 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2240 | 1988 | 420 | 70 | 15 | 55 | 226 | 625 | 7 | 45 | 21 | 211 | 294 | 345 | 639 | 133 | 277 | 28 | 10 | 288 | 79 | -57 | +1 | -9 | +24 | +49 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 66 | 181 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 210 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 132 | 274 | 28 | 10 | 288 | 79 | -17 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6594 | 5815 | 1238 | 214 | 46 | 128 | 700 | 1954 | 20 | 182 | 84 | 213 | 300 | 332 | 631 | 119 | 295 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 79 | -123 | +2 | -18 | +50 | +101 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 193 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 215 | 301 | 337 | 638 | 122 | 297 | 30 | 11 | 284 | 79 | -17 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 325 PAwOBA .391 → .335 (−56)K% 23.7% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 27.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 7.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.68% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .391 → .335; ISO .191 → .157; BABIP .406 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 254 PAwOBA .310 → .267 (−44)K% 27.6% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 10.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 21.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 4.06% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .310 → .267; ISO .144 → .124; BABIP .283 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 264 PAwOBA .383 → .325 (−58)K% 25.4% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.38% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.05% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.65% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×1.030 | 32.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×1.030 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.042 | ×1.030 | 2.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.032 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .383 → .325; ISO .140 → .113; BABIP .431 → .417. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 228 PAwOBA .302 → .268 (−34)K% 23.7% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 22.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .302 → .268; ISO .129 → .109; BABIP .312 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 220 PAwOBA .280 → .231 (−49)K% 33.2% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.18% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.73% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 12.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.04% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 33.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .280 → .231; ISO .023 → .018; BABIP .359 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Reds · 88 PAwOBA .304 → .215 (−89)K% 27.3% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.005 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 11.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷0.970 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 21.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.144 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.063 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.61% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 129, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .304 → .215; ISO .086 → .056; BABIP .304 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Reds · 175 PAwOBA .402 → .291 (−111)K% 25.1% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.14% | ÷1.027 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.14% | ÷1.040 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 15.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.038 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 10.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .402 → .291; ISO .164 → .121; BABIP .422 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 19 PAwOBA .286 → .189 (−97)K% 42.1% → 56.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.11% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 56.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 11.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 11.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 19.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .286 → .189; ISO .125 → .075; BABIP .375 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .