Livan Soto
SS Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AAA/AALAA | 477 | .237/.345/.358 | 9 | 1 | 68 | — | .210/.292/.310 | |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 538 | .290/.397/.381 | 4 | 9 | 109 | — | .268/.342/.348 | |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBBAL | 16 | .231/.375/.308 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 0.3 | ||
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 455 | .215/.326/.285 | 5 | 3 | 51 | — | .173/.249/.222 | |
| 2026 | 26 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 16 | .211/.286/.290 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 89 | .211/.286/.292 | 1 | 1 | 64 | -0.1 | ||
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 208 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 225 | 337 | 254 | 591 | 29 | 260 | 12 | 13 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Orem Owlz | — | 200 | 172 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 291 | 387 | 349 | 736 | 58 | 336 | 12 | 12 | 340 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Burlington Bees | — | 282 | 245 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 313 | 253 | 566 | 33 | 257 | 14 | 11 | 266 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Angels | — | 29 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 214 | 241 | 286 | 527 | 71 | 250 | 14 | 3 | 237 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 295 | 250 | 545 | 25 | 310 | 25 | 7 | 258 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 406 | 360 | 78 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 39 | 99 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 217 | 297 | 358 | 655 | 142 | 274 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | — | 59 | 55 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 400 | 421 | 582 | 1.003 | 182 | 500 | 22 | 3 | 425 | 177 | +5 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +1 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 543 | 456 | 128 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 71 | 102 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 281 | 383 | 362 | 745 | 81 | 345 | 19 | 13 | 337 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 48 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 45 | 289 | 15 | 4 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 350 | 298 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 351 | 389 | 740 | 141 | 313 | 24 | 13 | 331 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 127 | 107 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 331 | 271 | 602 | 65 | 292 | 27 | 15 | 288 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 308 | 683 | 77 | 300 | 19 | 19 | 324 | 102 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +0 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 370 | 315 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 283 | 381 | 381 | 762 | 98 | 336 | 17 | 12 | 344 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 168 | 136 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 309 | 434 | 382 | 816 | 74 | 372 | 14 | 17 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 366 | 313 | 61 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 80 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 304 | 259 | 563 | 64 | 243 | 22 | 12 | 266 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 89 | 69 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 304 | 422 | 406 | 827 | 101 | 362 | 15 | 13 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 75 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 368 | 411 | 529 | 940 | 162 | 462 | 21 | 7 | 404 | 159 | +5 | -0 | -1 | +9 | +2 | 1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 208 | 183 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 186 | 262 | 208 | 470 | 22 | 218 | 18 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 200 | 181 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 227 | 296 | 265 | 562 | 39 | 277 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 282 | 256 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 248 | 211 | 459 | 27 | 225 | 20 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Angels | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 143 | 172 | 179 | 351 | 36 | 198 | 21 | 3 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 44 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 273 | 244 | 517 | 24 | 310 | 30 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 406 | 372 | 62 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 130 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 167 | 227 | 274 | 501 | 108 | 229 | 32 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB MLE | Los Angeles Angels | — | 59 | 55 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 400 | 421 | 582 | 1.003 | 182 | 500 | 22 | 3 | 429 | 177 | +5 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +1 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 543 | 479 | 123 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 122 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 331 | 328 | 659 | 71 | 318 | 22 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 350 | 310 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 299 | 332 | 631 | 113 | 291 | 28 | 9 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 127 | 113 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 276 | 248 | 523 | 62 | 275 | 31 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 308 | 683 | 77 | 300 | 19 | 19 | 318 | 102 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +0 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 370 | 328 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 268 | 342 | 348 | 690 | 79 | 321 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 366 | 329 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 99 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 173 | 249 | 222 | 471 | 49 | 228 | 27 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 208 | 183 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 186 | 262 | 208 | 470 | 22 | 228 | 18 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 208 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 225 | 337 | 254 | 591 | 29 | 260 | 12 | 13 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 200 | 181 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 227 | 296 | 265 | 562 | 39 | 279 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | Orem Owlz | — | 200 | 172 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 291 | 387 | 349 | 736 | 58 | 336 | 12 | 12 | 340 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 284 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 180 | 241 | 208 | 449 | 28 | 224 | 20 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 311 | 273 | 60 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 44 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 220 | 306 | 256 | 563 | 37 | 257 | 14 | 11 | 263 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 413 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 143 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 172 | 231 | 271 | 503 | 99 | 242 | 32 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 400 | 87 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 110 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 217 | 297 | 347 | 644 | 130 | 278 | 24 | 9 | 289 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 650 | 576 | 156 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 54 | 145 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 271 | 339 | 351 | 689 | 80 | 346 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 650 | 555 | 161 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 75 | 122 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 290 | 380 | 378 | 758 | 88 | 355 | 19 | 12 | 339 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 423 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 139 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 292 | 310 | 602 | 99 | 292 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 477 | 405 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 63 | 117 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 345 | 358 | 703 | 121 | 307 | 25 | 13 | 320 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 490 | 131 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 104 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 267 | 344 | 347 | 691 | 80 | 328 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 554 | 464 | 134 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 78 | 89 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 289 | 397 | 379 | 776 | 91 | 346 | 16 | 14 | 353 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 403 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 123 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 174 | 252 | 223 | 475 | 50 | 233 | 27 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 382 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 56 | 93 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 326 | 285 | 611 | 71 | 267 | 20 | 12 | 283 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 208 | 187 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 182 | 262 | 203 | 466 | 21 | 218 | 18 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 200 | 180 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 228 | 296 | 267 | 563 | 39 | 277 | 18 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 285 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 179 | 241 | 207 | 448 | 28 | 222 | 20 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 415 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 143 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 171 | 231 | 270 | 501 | 99 | 237 | 32 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 650 | 586 | 156 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 54 | 145 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 266 | 339 | 345 | 683 | 78 | 336 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 425 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 139 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 292 | 308 | 601 | 99 | 287 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 492 | 131 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 104 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 266 | 344 | 346 | 689 | 79 | 320 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 410 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 123 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 171 | 252 | 220 | 471 | 49 | 228 | 27 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 492 | 131 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 104 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 266 | 344 | 346 | 689 | 79 | 320 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 410 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 123 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 171 | 252 | 220 | 471 | 49 | 228 | 27 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 10% | 380 | 341 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 101 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 283 | 284 | 568 | 77 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 290 | 576 | 79 | 282 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 63 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 31% | 286 | 257 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 76 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 283 | 286 | 569 | 78 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 31% | 89 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 292 | 578 | 81 | 282 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 64 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 164 | 149 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 282 | 340 | 396 | 735 | 114 | 370 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 62 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +10 | +4 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 167 | 36 | 4 | 8 | 48 | 159 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 283 | 341 | 398 | 739 | 115 | 371 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 62 | +6 | +0 | -5 | +39 | +14 | 5.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3746 | 3349 | 724 | 110 | 12 | 34 | 306 | 905 | 35 | 72 | 36 | 216 | 289 | 287 | 575 | 70 | 282 | 24 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -14 | -0 | -3 | +14 | +11 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 126 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 157 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 217 | 289 | 287 | 576 | 71 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -17 | -0 | -3 | +17 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 366 PAwOBA .259 → .217 (−42)K% 21.9% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.86% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.89% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 20.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .259 → .217; ISO .064 → .050; BABIP .243 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 370 PAwOBA .339 → .309 (−30)K% 16.8% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.76% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.16% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.48% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.048 | 26.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.048 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.048 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.58% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .339 → .309; ISO .098 → .084; BABIP .336 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 350 PAwOBA .327 → .281 (−46)K% 23.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.71% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.058 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 21.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.51% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .327 → .281; ISO .141 → .118; BABIP .313 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 127 PAwOBA .282 → .238 (−44)K% 26.8% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.77% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.96% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 10.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.29% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .282 → .238; ISO .065 → .061; BABIP .292 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 543 PAwOBA .333 → .291 (−42)K% 18.8% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.78% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷1.041 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.38% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.042 | 27.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.80% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.042 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.980 | ×1.042 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.131 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .333 → .291; ISO .081 → .072; BABIP .345 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 406 PAwOBA .288 → .224 (−64)K% 24.4% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.38% | ÷1.028 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.61% | ÷1.047 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.77% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.07% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 2.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 114, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .288 → .224; ISO .142 → .114; BABIP .274 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 44 PAwOBA .252 → .228 (−23)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 27.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 3.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .252 → .228; ISO .025 → .023; BABIP .310 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ABurlington Bees · 282 PAwOBA .262 → .211 (−51)K% 14.2% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.18% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.41% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.017 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.960 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 107, 2B 103, 3B 93, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .262 → .211; ISO .033 → .027; BABIP .257 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .