Spencer NivensOF
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 24
L/R
5'11" / 185 lbs
AA
HR -5%BB +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.2 · 2029
wRC+†72
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .283 / .331
PA320
HR7
SB6
K%29
BB%9
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
45→45
PWR
35→35
SPD
50→50
EYE
51↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $2M | $-5M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | 2 teams | 139 | 123 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 4 | .163 | .254 | .252 | .506 | .089 | .200 | 23 | 11 | .228 | 32 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 412 | 371 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 35 | 137 | 2 | 7 | 4 | .186 | .260 | .356 | .616 | .170 | .239 | 33 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -16 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +12 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 515 | 461 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 45 | 138 | 0 | 14 | 3 | .206 | .277 | .284 | .561 | .078 | .275 | 27 | 9 | .254 | 53 | -28 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | KC | 320 | 287 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 92 | 1 | 6 | 2 | .209 | .284 | .328 | .611 | .118 | .282 | 29 | 9 | .279 | 72 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 11% | KC | 370 | 332 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 104 | 1 | 7 | 2 | .217 | .292 | .349 | .641 | .133 | .284 | 28 | 9 | .287 | 78 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 26% | KC | 407 | 364 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 112 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .220 | .297 | .354 | .651 | .135 | .286 | 28 | 9 | .292 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 44% | KC | 420 | 375 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 115 | 2 | 8 | 2 | .219 | .297 | .349 | .647 | .131 | .286 | 27 | 10 | .293 | 83 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 53% | KC | 425 | 380 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 117 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .218 | .296 | .347 | .644 | .129 | .286 | 28 | 9 | .293 | 82 | -8 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 64% | KC | 420 | 375 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 117 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .219 | .297 | .349 | .647 | .131 | .285 | 28 | 10 | .291 | 81 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 73% | KC | 414 | 369 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 117 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .220 | .299 | .352 | .652 | .133 | .283 | 28 | 10 | .288 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB 91% | KC | 401 | 358 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 115 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .215 | .294 | .341 | .635 | .126 | .282 | 29 | 9 | .284 | 75 | -11 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 384 | 343 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 112 | 1 | 4 | 0 | .207 | .286 | .321 | .607 | .114 | .280 | 29 | 10 | .279 | 72 | -12 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +11 | -0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 355 | 317 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 106 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .205 | .284 | .315 | .600 | .110 | .279 | 30 | 10 | .274 | 68 | -13 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 311 | 278 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .201 | .279 | .309 | .589 | .108 | .277 | 31 | 9 | .268 | 63 | -13 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +9 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5293 | 4733 | 993 | 181 | 22 | 119 | 494 | 1509 | 19 | 92 | 25 | .210 | .287 | .333 | .620 | .123 | .278 | 29 | 9 | .279 | 72 | -168 | +8 | -20 | -32 | +150 | -6.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 581 | 122 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 185 | 2 | 11 | 3 | .210 | .287 | .336 | .622 | .126 | .278 | 28 | 9 | .279 | 72 | -21 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | -0.8 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 122 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 3 | .184 | .339 | .276 | .614 | .092 | .208 | 16 | 19 | .294 | 83 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 17 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .312 | .353 | .562 | .915 | .250 | .357 | 12 | 6 | .396 | 162 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +0 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 412 | 358 | 87 | 17 | 3 | 20 | 48 | 111 | 2 | 7 | 4 | .243 | .336 | .475 | .811 | .232 | .290 | 27 | 12 | .354 | 129 | +13 | -0 | — | — | +12 | 2.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 515 | 436 | 109 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 70 | 109 | 0 | 14 | 3 | .250 | .354 | .346 | .700 | .096 | .312 | 21 | 14 | .318 | 101 | +1 | +2 | — | — | +15 | 1.7 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Spencer Nivens (OGILVIE) | 24 | 45 | 35 | 50 | 60 | .210/.283/.331 | .121 | .282 | 7 | 6 | 29% | 9% | 72 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕James Ramsey 2014 · AA |
24 | 46→50 | 44→45 | 50→45 | 45 | .220/.297/.339 | .120 | .316 | 12 | 11 | 32% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .227/.289/.354 | .127 | .323 | 13 | 7 | 32% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .224/.280/.348 | .124 | .320 | 13 | 5 | 32% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 |
|
✕Jeisson Rosario 2023 · AA |
23 | 44→50 | 43→45 | 47→50 | 48 | .215/.292/.325 | .110 | .294 | 10 | 12 | 29% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .207/.293/.313 | .106 | .313 | 10 | 12 | 33% | 10% | 71 | -0.3 | .192/.285/.283 | .091 | .305 | 9 | 12 | 36% | 11% | 57 | -0.7 |
|
✕Travis Swaggerty 2022 · AAA |
24 | 44→45 | 42→45 | 51→55 | 45 | .213/.279/.317 | .104 | .294 | 10 | 16 | 30% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.278/.334 | .119 | .306 | 10 | 19 | 31% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .209/.277/.321 | .112 | .309 | 8 | 20 | 32% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |
|
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A |
24 | 42→46 | 44→50 | 51→40 | 43 | .212/.273/.333 | .122 | .278 | 12 | 9 | 28% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .228/.285/.377 | .149 | .300 | 18 | 5 | 29% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .226/.286/.378 | .152 | .294 | 19 | 3 | 29% | 6% | 82 | +0.3 |
|
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA |
24 | 39→47 | 44→45 | 44→45 | 48 | .193/.275/.309 | .117 | .272 | 11 | 5 | 31% | 10% | 63 | -0.8 | .217/.294/.333 | .116 | .291 | 12 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .219/.297/.324 | .105 | .288 | 11 | 4 | 26% | 9% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA |
25 | 41 | 42→45 | 48→55 | 46 | .197/.276/.303 | .106 | .284 | 9 | 9 | 32% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .215/.297/.325 | .110 | .300 | 11 | 14 | 30% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .222/.305/.326 | .104 | .296 | 11 | 19 | 27% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA |
23 | 47→56 | 43→40 | 51→50 | 47 | .228/.290/.339 | .111 | .289 | 10 | 13 | 24% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .229/.298/.317 | .088 | .320 | 6 | 12 | 28% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 | .247/.323/.318 | .070 | .360 | 2 | 15 | 29% | 10% | 82 | +0.3 |
|
✕Matt Mangini 2010 · AA |
24 | 44→50 | 44→45 | 49→45 | 40 | .218/.271/.331 | .113 | .293 | 12 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .248/.290/.362 | .114 | .327 | 11 | 6 | 26% | 5% | 81 | +0.4 | .260/.301/.363 | .103 | .345 | 10 | 4 | 26% | 5% | 83 | +0.3 |
|
✕Cornelius Randolph 2021 · AA |
24 | 44→47 | 41→40 | 45 | 43 | .214/.273/.310 | .095 | .296 | 9 | 8 | 30% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .207/.267/.322 | .115 | .334 | 12 | 12 | 38% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .194/.259/.309 | .115 | .296 | 14 | 15 | 37% | 8% | 53 | -0.5 |
|
✕Conner Capel 2021 · AAA |
24 | 43→45 | 42→45 | 46→55 | 41 | .211/.262/.316 | .105 | .284 | 10 | 11 | 29% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .219/.281/.347 | .128 | .275 | 14 | 15 | 25% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .216/.288/.339 | .123 | .271 | 13 | 19 | 24% | 8% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA |
23 | 47→50 | 43→45 | 54→50 | 49 | .225/.293/.348 | .122 | .288 | 9 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .227/.293/.350 | .123 | .284 | 10 | 12 | 22% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .224/.293/.346 | .123 | .275 | 10 | 11 | 21% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Matthew Acosta 2022 · A |
24 | 45 | 44→45 | 53→50 | 46 | .219/.290/.343 | .124 | .299 | 11 | 9 | 29% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .205/.273/.316 | .111 | .294 | 11 | 13 | 32% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .181/.252/.276 | .095 | .261 | 10 | 16 | 33% | 8% | 42 | -1.4 |
|
✕Joe McCarthy 2018 · AA |
24 | 48→49 | 42→45 | 53→50 | 53 | .231/.316/.344 | .113 | .292 | 8 | 15 | 22% | 10% | 89 | +0.9 | .208/.292/.337 | .129 | .287 | 12 | 10 | 29% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .197/.279/.353 | .156 | .261 | 18 | 5 | 31% | 9% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A |
24 | 42→48 | 44→45 | 45→50 | 46 | .207/.289/.325 | .118 | .276 | 11 | 10 | 28% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .204/.289/.298 | .094 | .286 | 6 | 8 | 28% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .196/.286/.284 | .087 | .279 | 4 | 7 | 28% | 9% | 59 | -0.8 |
|
✕Carlos Alvarez 2012 · AAA |
24 | 47 | 47→45 | 48→45 | 49 | .235/.302/.367 | .131 | .291 | 14 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 89 | +0.9 | .230/.292/.355 | .125 | .285 | 12 | 8 | 23% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .249/.327/.336 | .087 | .300 | 6 | 6 | 18% | 9% | 89 | +0.4 |
|
✕Nathan Panther 2006 · AA |
25 | 45→43 | 45 | 47→45 | 48 | .222/.288/.339 | .117 | .275 | 13 | 10 | 24% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .220/.286/.338 | .118 | .277 | 11 | 7 | 23% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .220/.290/.343 | .124 | .273 | 11 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Daryl Jones 2011 · AA |
24 | 47→55 | 42→45 | 51→50 | 45 | .229/.294/.334 | .106 | .296 | 9 | 14 | 25% | 7% | 76 | +0.1 | .212/.279/.323 | .111 | .291 | 10 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .197/.268/.313 | .116 | .280 | 12 | 12 | 32% | 8% | 58 | -0.4 |
|
✕River Town 2023 · A |
24 | 41→38 | 45→40 | 55→50 | 46 | .206/.287/.332 | .126 | .261 | 12 | 15 | 25% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.304/.312 | .095 | .269 | 8 | 15 | 21% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .215/.313/.285 | .071 | .263 | 6 | 15 | 19% | 10% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Logan Parker 2008 · A |
24 | 48 | 43→45 | 52→45 | 47 | .234/.295/.345 | .111 | .304 | 11 | 7 | 26% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .219/.279/.341 | .122 | .290 | 12 | 6 | 27% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .206/.269/.334 | .127 | .271 | 13 | 3 | 28% | 8% | 63 | -0.6 |
|
✕Chantz Mack 2015 · AA |
24 | 46→47 | 43→45 | 47→45 | 45 | .224/.276/.333 | .109 | .273 | 10 | 9 | 22% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .218/.286/.327 | .109 | .295 | 10 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .210/.289/.316 | .106 | .290 | 11 | 3 | 29% | 9% | 67 | -0.4 |