Spencer Nivens

OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2405ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422A+KC412.243/.336/.47520768—.186/.260/.356
202523AANorthwest Ark…515.250/.354/.34661461—.211/.283/.289
202624AANorthwest Ark…450.280/.371/.44691789—.243/.310/.377
2027PROJMLE25MLBKC4.222/.292/.3370080-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB26MLBKC79.223/.294/.3411282-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB27MLBKC118.223/.294/.3422282-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
K%88
Whiff%88
Chase%87
Z-Con%85
wOBA72
Speed70
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%
CompsLuis González (age 25) · Danry Vasquez (age 25) · Nathan Panther (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†80
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .292 / .337
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%9
BABIP281
ISO121
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 AColumbia Fireflies — 12298 18302 23200 73 184339276614 92208 1619 294 38 — — — — — —
202321 ROKACL Royals — 1716 5400 120 11 312353562915 250357 126 396 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 412358 8717320 481112 74 243336475811 232290 2712 354 68 — — — — — —
202523 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515436 1092026 701090 143 250354346700 96312 2114 318 61 — — — — — —
202624 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450386 1082949 55751 174 280371446817 166320 1712 358 89 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 122105 15201 16290 73 143256190447 48181 2413 225 38 — — — — — —
202321 ROK MLEACL Royals — 1716 4300 130 11 250294438732 188256 186 262 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 412371 6911216 351382 74 186260356616 170236 338 269 68 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515460 971725 461300 143 211283289572 78271 259 259 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450403 982547 38911 174 243310377687 134283 208 300 89 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 139121 18501 17310 84 149254215468 66189 2212 230 41 — — — — — —
202321 A RAW2 teams — 139114 23702 24220 84 202341316656 114231 1617 306 41 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 412371 6911216 351382 74 186260356616 170240 338 269 68 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 412358 8717320 481112 74 243336475811 232290 2712 354 68 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515460 971725 461300 143 211283289572 78275 259 259 61 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515436 1092026 701090 143 250354346700 96312 2114 318 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450403 982547 38911 174 243310377687 134292 208 300 89 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450386 1082949 55751 174 280371446817 166320 1712 358 89 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 139121 18501 17310 84 149254215468 66190 2212 230 41 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 412372 6911216 351382 74 185260355615 169236 338 269 68 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515464 971725 461300 143 209283287569 78271 259 259 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450408 982547 38911 174 240310373683 132283 208 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 412372 6911216 351382 74 185260355615 169236 338 269 68 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 515464 971725 461300 143 209283287569 78271 259 259 61 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 450408 982547 38911 174 240310373683 132283 208 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEKC 2% 380343 771726 33901 82 224294343637 118283 249 287 80 -9 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXKC 2% 44 1000 010 00 222292337629 115281 250 283 80 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEKC 31% 254229 531125 22601 51 226296348643 122283 249 289 82 -5 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.1
202927 MLB MLEKC 42% 281253 571225 25671 61 226296348644 122283 249 289 82 -6 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.1
203028 MLB MLEKC 48% 297268 601325 26711 51 225295346642 121283 249 288 81 -7 +1 -1 -2 +6 -0.2
203129 MLB MLEKC 49% 296267 601325 26711 41 223294343637 120282 249 287 80 -7 +0 -1 -2 +6 -0.3
202826 MLB CTXKC 31% 7972 16311 7190 20 223294341635 118281 249 286 82 -2 +0 +0 -0 +2 -0.0
202927 MLB CTXKC 42% 118107 24512 10280 21 223294342635 118281 248 286 82 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
203028 MLB CTXKC 48% 142129 28612 12340 21 222293340633 118281 248 285 81 -3 +0 -0 -1 +3 -0.1
203129 MLB CTXKC 49% 146132 29612 13350 21 221291337628 116280 249 283 80 -3 +0 -1 -1 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 485440 972047 421160 83 220288332620 111281 249 285 75 -11 +0 -1 -3 +11 -0.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 1292759 561550 114 219286327613 108279 249 285 75 -15 +1 -1 -4 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 28542562 5551161753 2537097 7120 217289337626 121275 259 279 75 -30 +3 -2 -8 +29 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 12626412 581612 165 216289336625 120274 259 279 75 -15 +1 -1 -4 +14 -0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 450 PAwOBA .355 → .300 (−55)K% 16.7% → 20.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.000×1.220——20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.22%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9988.54%
HBP% /PA0.22%—×0.870—×0.9980.19%
Singles /BIP21.22%÷1.000×0.920×0.990×0.99819.30%
Doubles /BIP9.32%÷1.000×0.840×0.990×0.9987.74%
Triples /BIP1.29%÷1.000×0.940×0.990×0.9981.19%
Home runs /BIP2.89%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9982.31%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .355 → .300; ISO .166 → .141; BABIP .320 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 515 PAwOBA .315 → .259 (−56)K% 21.2% → 25.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.17%÷1.022×1.220——25.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.40%÷1.059×0.700—×1.0128.96%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP24.77%÷1.034×0.920×0.972×1.01221.68%
Doubles /BIP6.12%÷0.984×0.840×0.972×1.0125.14%
Triples /BIP0.61%÷0.900×0.940×0.972×1.0120.63%
Home runs /BIP1.83%÷1.077×0.800—×1.0121.38%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .315 → .259; ISO .096 → .082; BABIP .312 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 412 PAwOBA .347 → .269 (−78)K% 26.9% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.94%÷1.024×1.270——33.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.41%÷0.967×0.710—×0.9988.36%
HBP% /PA0.49%—×0.790—×0.9980.38%
Singles /BIP19.03%÷0.988×0.920×0.950×0.99816.79%
Doubles /BIP6.88%÷1.113×0.810×0.950×0.9984.75%
Triples /BIP1.21%÷1.150×0.850×0.950×0.9980.85%
Home runs /BIP8.10%÷0.959×0.800—×0.9986.74%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .269; ISO .232 → .178; BABIP .290 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 122 PAwOBA .290 → .225 (−65)K% 16.4% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.39%÷0.952×1.360——23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.85%÷0.976×0.690——13.32%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷0.970×0.920×0.950—15.01%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.023×0.830×0.950—2.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×0.950—0.00%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷1.089×0.800——1.88%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .225; ISO .092 → .068; BABIP .208 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 17 PAwOBA .385 → .262 (−123)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.76%÷1.000×1.440——16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.88%÷0.982×0.620—×0.9753.62%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Singles /BIP7.14%÷1.029×0.820—×0.9755.55%
Doubles /BIP28.57%÷1.000×0.720—×0.97520.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.932×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9750.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .385 → .262; ISO .250 → .169; BABIP .357 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).