Spencer Nivens — OGILVIE

Spencer NivensOF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION446 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP286

ISO117

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	122	98	18	3	0	2	23	20	0	7	3	184	339	276	614	92	208	16	19	294	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	17	16	5	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	312	353	562	915	250	357	12	6	396	154	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	126	+13	-0	—	—	+9	2.2
2025	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	101	+1	+2	—	—	+11	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	122	106	16	2	0	2	15	30	0	7	3	151	256	226	483	75	185	25	12	222	36	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	17	16	4	3	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	250	294	438	732	188	263	18	6	268	68	-1	-0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	371	67	11	2	16	35	146	2	7	4	181	255	350	605	170	236	35	8	265	65	-17	-0	—	—	+9	-0.8
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	461	99	18	2	5	45	130	0	14	3	215	285	295	580	80	274	25	9	259	61	-24	+2	—	—	+11	-1.1
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	139	122	20	5	0	2	16	33	0	8	4	164	261	254	515	90	205	24	12	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	139	114	23	7	0	2	24	22	0	8	4	202	341	316	656	114	231	16	17	306	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	371	67	11	2	16	35	146	2	7	4	181	255	350	605	170	239	35	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	461	99	18	2	5	45	130	0	14	3	215	285	295	580	80	281	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	139	122	20	5	0	2	16	33	0	8	4	164	261	254	515	90	195	24	12	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	372	67	11	2	16	35	146	2	7	4	180	255	349	604	169	236	35	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	465	99	18	2	5	45	130	0	14	3	213	285	292	577	80	274	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	139	122	20	5	0	2	16	33	0	8	4	164	261	254	515	90	195	24	12	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	372	67	11	2	16	35	146	2	7	4	180	255	349	604	169	236	35	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	465	99	18	2	5	45	130	0	14	3	213	285	292	577	80	274	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	KC	—	446	399	99	25	4	7	38	91	1	17	4	248	315	383	699	135	299	20	9	304	92	-4	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA RAW	KC	—	446	382	107	28	4	9	55	75	1	17	4	280	372	445	817	165	321	17	12	359	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	KC	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		289	22	11	295	86	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	KC	—	455	407	100	25	4	7	39	93	1	17	4	246	313	378	692	133	296	20	9	304	92	-4	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	31%	370	334	77	17	2	7	32	84	1	9	2	231	300	356	656	126	288	23	9	299	89	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	45%	529	476	112	25	3	11	46	119	2	12	3	235	305	370	675	134	288	22	9	302	91	-6	+1	+0	-3	+11	0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	49%	534	480	113	25	3	11	47	121	2	12	3	235	306	369	675	133	288	23	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	52%	533	478	111	24	3	11	48	121	2	11	3	232	305	364	669	132	288	23	9	303	91	-6	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	52%	528	474	110	24	3	11	47	121	2	10	3	232	304	365	669	133	287	23	9	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	52%	414	372	85	19	2	8	37	96	2	7	2	228	302	355	657	126	286	23	9	298	88	-6	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	31%	115	104	24	5	1	2	10	26	0	3	1	231	298	356	654	125	285	23	9	293	89	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	45%	236	212	50	11	2	5	21	53	1	6	1	236	308	377	685	142	285	22	9	295	91	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	49%	263	237	55	12	2	5	23	59	1	6	2	232	303	363	666	131	285	22	9	296	92	-3	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	52%	275	247	57	12	2	5	25	62	1	6	1	231	304	356	660	126	285	23	9	295	91	-3	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	52%	272	245	56	12	2	5	24	62	1	5	1	229	300	355	655	127	284	23	9	293	90	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	52%	213	191	43	9	1	4	19	49	1	4	1	225	299	346	644	120	282	23	9	291	88	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1374	1236	285	61	10	26	122	311	5	30	7	231	302	359	661	129	286	23	9	294	82	-16	+3	-2	-8	+30	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	135	29	5	12	58	147	2	14	3	231	302	359	661	128	287	23	9	294	82	-7	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3983	3576	795	168	20	82	354	973	13	90	27	222	295	349	644	127	279	24	9	290	82	-34	+6	-4	-18	+63	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	129	27	3	13	58	159	2	15	4	221	294	344	638	123	278	24	9	290	82	-8	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.1	1,380	29	29	235	303	370	-8	+0	1.7	1.7
/162	664	14	14	-4.0	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Nivens (OGILVIE)	24	45	35	50	60	231/298/356	125	289	5	10	23%	9%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeff Duncan 2004 · MLB	25	44→47	41→45	50→60	51	213/297/306	93	275	9	13	24%	10%	74	-0.5	225/295/327	102	291	9	18	24%	8%	78	-0.3	232/299/312	80	302	7	21	24%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Carlos Alvarez 2012 · AAA	24	48	46→45	49→45	50	235/305/364	128	291	13	14	24%	9%	90	+0.6	230/294/348	118	287	10	8	22%	8%	82	-0.0	250/327/331	82	302	5	6	17%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Terrin Vavra 2021 · A	24	47→48	43→45	47→50	49	230/289/341	110	276	10	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	246/322/355	109	321	8	11	24%	9%	94	+0.9	258/340/363	104	339	6	11	23%	9%	99	+0.5
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2017 · AA	24	49→53	42→45	47→50	46	236/285/345	109	281	9	9	20%	6%	78	-0.3	241/298/360	119	292	10	10	20%	7%	86	+0.3	243/304/370	127	291	12	9	20%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Noe Becerra 2011 · AAA	24	45	41→30	45→40	47	217/275/309	92	267	9	9	22%	7%	66	-1.1	237/288/319	82	273	6	6	15%	6%	73	-0.6	282/332/341	59	319	2	0	12%	6%	93	+0.3
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	48→53	41→45	54→50	46	227/299/335	107	310	8	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	243/306/369	126	316	11	15	25%	8%	91	+0.7	250/313/384	134	318	12	17	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Joe McCarthy 2018 · AA	24	49→50	42→45	53→50	54	234/320/347	112	294	7	15	22%	10%	92	+0.7	204/289/327	123	286	11	10	30%	10%	76	-0.4	199/280/346	148	264	17	5	30%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Cal Stevenson 2022 · AA	25	46→56	43→45	50→60	51	226/300/335	109	289	11	16	25%	10%	81	-0.1	232/319/343	111	306	10	24	25%	11%	91	+0.6	239/332/352	113	308	9	30	23%	12%	96	+0.6
✕Spencer Packard 2022 · A	24	45→52	44→45	51→40	46	221/287/336	115	264	12	7	21%	6%	77	-0.3	237/308/366	129	282	14	5	20%	8%	92	+0.7	242/318/366	125	285	13	3	19%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Richie Palacios 2021 · A	24	47→53	45	52→55	43	234/285/355	121	299	12	11	26%	6%	80	-0.1	242/318/366	124	297	9	18	20%	9%	95	+1.0	240/320/367	128	284	10	17	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕James Ramsey 2014 · AA	24	47→52	44→45	50→45	46	223/299/337	114	314	11	10	31%	9%	82	-0.0	228/289/347	119	323	12	7	31%	7%	80	-0.1	224/281/341	117	320	11	5	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Ricardo Gastelum 2008 · AAA	24	44	40	51→40	41	215/261/306	91	283	7	10	26%	5%	59	-1.6	251/295/341	90	311	7	7	21%	5%	80	-0.2	270/312/346	76	329	5	3	19%	4%	86	+0.1
✕Matt Mangini 2010 · AA	24	45→50	43→45	50→45	40	223/275/331	107	294	11	8	27%	6%	71	-0.8	251/292/360	109	330	10	6	26%	5%	84	+0.1	260/301/361	101	344	9	4	26%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Daryl Jones 2011 · AA	24	48→55	41→45	50	46	229/294/329	99	293	8	13	24%	7%	78	-0.3	213/278/322	109	293	10	12	29%	7%	70	-0.8	198/268/307	109	281	11	12	32%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	47→55	43→40	52→50	47	228/291/339	111	290	10	13	24%	8%	78	-0.3	228/296/315	87	318	6	12	27%	9%	75	-0.5	247/322/317	70	355	2	15	28%	10%	83	+0.1
●Bryan Petersen 2010 · AA	24	50→59	44→45	47→50	47	245/300/361	116	294	12	13	21%	7%	87	+0.4	243/305/349	106	298	9	12	20%	7%	86	+0.3	246/316/348	102	313	7	13	22%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2015 · AAA	24	50	42→45	45→50	46	241/298/353	113	294	9	10	21%	7%	84	+0.2	251/302/356	105	312	9	8	22%	6%	86	+0.3	258/316/353	95	331	10	5	24%	7%	91	+0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	41→39	42→45	46→55	56	196/304/308	112	272	9	11	28%	13%	78	-0.3	197/295/308	111	251	10	20	24%	12%	75	-0.5	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Bijan Rademacher 2016 · AA	25	49	41→45	44→45	50	232/304/337	105	291	7	7	22%	9%	83	+0.1	241/303/346	105	303	9	5	22%	8%	85	+0.2	241/298/333	93	302	8	2	22%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Rene Tosoni 2010 · AA	24	49→48	45	44→45	45	239/310/367	128	306	11	9	25%	7%	93	+0.8	219/279/332	113	284	10	7	25%	6%	73	-0.6	202/257/297	96	259	8	5	25%	6%	54	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps