Spencer Nivens — OGILVIE

Spencer NivensOF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION239 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .297 / .374

PA159

HR4

SB5

K%24

BB%9

BABIP281

ISO145

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	139	122	19	5	0	1	16	34	0	8	4	156	254	221	475	66	205	24	12	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	139	114	23	7	0	2	24	22	0	8	4	202	341	316	656	114	231	16	17	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	370	68	10	2	17	36	143	2	7	4	184	260	359	619	176	238	35	9	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	463	97	18	2	5	43	134	0	14	3	210	277	289	566	80	276	26	8	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	KC	—	239	211	53	12	2	7	23	44	0	11	1	251	325	427	751	175	279	18	10	323	105	+1	+2	+0	-1	+7	0.9
YTD	24	AA	KC	—	239	201	56	14	2	7	33	34	0	11	1	279	380	473	853	194	297	14	14	371	142	+11	+2	+0	-1	+7	1.9
ROS	24	AA	KC	2%	159	144	33	7	1	4	14	38	0	5	1	229	297	374	671	145	278	24	9	297	85	-3	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
ROS	24	MLB	KC	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						274	33	0	292	81	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	24	AA	KC	—	242	214	53	12	2	7	23	45	0	11	1	248	321	421	741	173	275	19	10	323	105	+1	+2	+0	-1	+7	0.9
TOT	24	AA	KC	—	398	355	86	19	3	11	37	82	0	16	2	242	314	405	719	163	280	21	9	312	97	-1	+2	+0	-2	+11	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	KC	31%	515	463	107	22	3	13	46	120	1	12	2	231	302	376	678	145	278	23	9	299	87	-8	+2	+0	-3	+15	0.6
2028	26	MLB	KC	45%	529	474	109	22	3	13	48	123	2	12	2	230	303	371	675	141	279	23	9	302	89	-6	+2	+0	-3	+15	0.7
2029	27	MLB	KC	49%	534	478	110	22	3	14	49	125	2	12	2	230	304	377	681	146	280	23	9	303	90	-6	+2	+0	-3	+15	0.8
2030	28	MLB	KC	52%	533	477	110	22	3	14	49	125	2	11	2	231	305	377	682	147	280	23	9	303	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+15	0.7
2031	29	MLB	KC	52%	528	472	108	22	3	13	49	125	2	10	2	229	304	371	675	142	279	24	9	301	88	-7	+1	-1	-3	+15	0.5
2032	30	MLB	KC	52%	522	466	106	21	3	13	49	125	2	9	2	227	304	369	673	142	278	24	9	298	86	-8	+1	-2	-3	+15	0.2
2033	31	MLB	KC	56%	514	459	102	21	2	12	48	124	2	8	1	222	299	355	654	133	275	24	9	294	83	-10	+1	-3	-3	+15	-0.0
2027	25	MLB	KC	31%	160	145	32	6	1	4	14	37	0	4	1	221	289	359	648	138	275	23	9	293	83	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2028	26	MLB	KC	45%	236	212	48	10	1	6	21	55	1	5	1	226	299	368	667	142	276	23	9	296	84	-4	+1	+0	-1	+7	0.2
2029	27	MLB	KC	49%	263	236	54	11	1	7	24	61	1	6	1	229	303	373	676	144	276	23	9	297	85	-4	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2030	28	MLB	KC	52%	275	247	55	11	1	7	25	64	1	6	1	223	297	360	657	138	276	23	9	296	85	-5	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.2
2031	29	MLB	KC	52%	272	244	55	11	1	7	25	64	1	5	1	225	300	365	665	139	275	24	9	294	83	-5	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.1
2032	30	MLB	KC	52%	269	241	53	11	1	6	25	64	1	5	1	220	296	349	644	129	274	24	9	292	81	-6	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.0
2033	31	MLB	KC	56%	287	257	56	11	1	7	27	69	1	5	1	218	295	350	645	132	272	24	9	288	78	-7	+1	-2	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1765	1585	353	71	7	44	161	415	6	36	7	223	297	360	656	137	273	24	9	293	83	-34	+4	-4	-11	+50	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	130	26	3	16	59	153	2	13	3	223	296	360	656	137	273	24	9	293	83	-13	+1	-1	-4	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4900	4388	969	192	25	119	447	1216	15	108	25	221	295	357	652	136	275	25	9	290	80	-109	+12	-7	-29	+139	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	128	25	3	16	59	161	2	14	3	220	294	356	650	136	273	25	9	290	80	-14	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	122	98	18	3	0	2	23	20	0	7	3	184	339	276	614	92	208	16	19	294	83	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	17	16	5	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	312	353	562	915	250	357	12	6	396	162	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	129	+13	-0	—	—	+12	2.5
2025	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	101	+1	+2	—	—	+15	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,767	44	36	229	299	370	-11	+0	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	16	13	229	299	370	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Nivens (OGILVIE)	24	45	35	50	60	242/314/405	163	280	11	16	21%	9%	97	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Carlos Alvarez 2012 · AAA	24	46	48→45	49→45	48	234/298/374	140	288	16	14	24%	8%	89	+0.9	225/288/350	125	282	12	8	23%	8%	78	+0.2	245/326/331	86	298	6	6	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Terrin Vavra 2022 · AA	25	46→44	42→45	49→50	47	223/294/335	113	295	9	12	26%	8%	77	+0.1	253/326/358	105	332	7	10	24%	9%	95	+1.4	261/335/360	99	340	7	8	23%	9%	95	+0.5
●Cal Stevenson 2022 · AA	25	45→55	44→45	50→60	50	221/295/338	116	287	12	16	26%	10%	78	+0.2	232/319/349	117	305	11	24	25%	11%	91	+1.1	242/335/362	120	310	11	30	23%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Matt Mangini 2010 · AA	24	45→50	44→45	50→45	40	222/274/335	113	296	12	8	28%	6%	68	-0.5	251/293/361	110	331	11	6	26%	5%	82	+0.5	261/302/362	101	345	9	4	26%	5%	83	+0.3
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	48→55	42→40	51→50	47	230/294/339	109	298	9	13	25%	8%	77	+0.1	227/294/313	86	322	5	12	28%	8%	70	-0.3	245/317/316	71	358	2	15	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Jeisson Rosario 2023 · AA	23	44→49	43→45	47→50	48	214/291/327	114	289	10	12	28%	9%	74	-0.1	204/290/309	105	312	10	12	34%	10%	69	-0.4	186/281/277	91	297	9	12	37%	11%	54	-0.9
✕James Ramsey 2014 · AA	24	46→51	44→45	50→45	45	221/295/336	115	313	12	10	32%	8%	78	+0.2	228/287/350	122	324	12	7	31%	7%	78	+0.2	228/282/351	123	324	12	5	32%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Luis González 2021 · AA	25	45→52	43→45	47→50	45	223/278/334	111	280	10	12	24%	6%	69	-0.4	231/301/347	116	297	12	18	25%	8%	83	+0.6	235/312/350	115	301	12	22	24%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Bijan Rademacher 2016 · AA	25	47	41→45	44→45	50	227/300/333	106	288	8	7	23%	9%	79	+0.3	241/304/351	110	302	10	5	22%	8%	85	+0.7	241/297/340	99	301	9	2	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Daryl Jones 2011 · AA	24	47→55	41→45	50	45	226/290/328	102	291	8	13	24%	7%	73	-0.1	212/277/325	113	295	11	12	30%	7%	67	-0.5	198/268/315	116	285	12	12	33%	8%	59	-0.4
✕Noe Becerra 2011 · AAA	24	44	41→30	45→40	46	216/269/309	93	264	9	9	22%	7%	59	-1.1	232/278/315	83	267	6	6	15%	5%	63	-0.8	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Hudson Haskin 2023 · AA	24	46→44	44→40	49→50	42	223/302/343	120	303	11	11	28%	6%	83	+0.6	215/302/318	103	314	9	18	32%	8%	77	+0.1	198/295/280	82	307	7	24	34%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Nathan Panther 2006 · AA	25	44→43	45	47→45	48	220/287/338	118	273	13	9	24%	8%	75	-0.0	219/285/338	119	275	11	7	23%	8%	74	-0.1	217/286/341	124	268	11	5	23%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	42	41→50	45	44	206/270/300	94	283	8	9	29%	8%	57	-1.2	211/291/339	128	285	12	7	28%	9%	77	+0.1	215/306/369	154	265	18	4	25%	10%	89	+0.6
✕Joe McCarthy 2018 · AA	24	48→49	42→50	53→50	53	230/315/342	112	292	8	15	23%	10%	88	+0.9	202/288/330	128	284	12	10	31%	10%	74	-0.1	202/285/367	165	263	19	5	30%	9%	80	+0.1
✕Dean Anna 2011 · A	24	43→53	44→45	50→45	49	213/283/330	117	264	12	7	24%	8%	71	-0.3	234/303/358	124	274	11	6	18%	8%	86	+0.8	244/313/368	124	283	11	4	17%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	47→53	41→50	54→50	47	223/295/331	108	303	8	11	27%	8%	76	+0.1	244/308/384	140	316	13	15	26%	8%	95	+1.4	252/316/405	153	320	16	17	25%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2017 · AA	24	48→53	41→50	47→50	45	231/280/336	105	282	8	9	21%	6%	70	-0.3	242/298/366	124	295	11	10	21%	7%	86	+0.8	245/307/382	136	293	13	9	20%	7%	91	+0.9
✕Jeff Salazar 2006 · AAA	25	46→51	44→50	48→55	49	225/290/345	120	281	11	13	24%	8%	77	+0.1	232/304/363	131	283	11	15	21%	9%	88	+0.9	235/313/372	138	281	10	15	19%	9%	90	+0.8