River Town — OGILVIE

River TownOF Tucson Baseball Team

Age 27 L/R 5'10" / 181 lbs INTL HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 203 proj PA

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .316 / .310

PA16

HR0

K%21

BB%10

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT62

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	72	59	13	4	0	0	8	13	5	6	0	220	361	288	649	68	283	18	11	313	98	-0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	114	100	25	2	1	2	9	17	2	4	0	250	324	350	674	100	274	15	8	300	89	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	23	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	356	282	70	18	3	12	52	64	14	18	3	248	391	461	852	213	276	18	15	374	139	+16	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2023	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	301	81	9	1	6	41	55	12	20	4	269	379	365	744	96	309	15	11	341	117	+7	+2	—	—	+8	1.8
2024	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	196	46	7	2	1	41	33	9	3	5	235	390	306	696	71	273	13	16	330	109	+3	-1	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	26	INTL	Tucson Baseball Team	—	281	247	80	19	3	1	25	24	4	9	3	324	395	437	832	113	356	9	9	368	135	+12	+1	—	—	+6	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Gold	—	72	62	10	3	0	0	5	19	5	6	0	161	278	210	487	48	217	26	7	216	32	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	114	103	23	2	1	2	6	23	2	4	0	223	279	320	600	97	236	20	5	245	52	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	356	303	59	15	3	9	31	97	14	18	3	195	299	353	652	158	235	27	9	282	77	-10	+2	—	—	+8	0.0
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	311	73	8	1	5	31	74	12	20	4	235	328	315	643	80	280	21	9	285	79	-9	+2	—	—	+8	0.1
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	211	42	6	2	1	26	41	9	3	5	199	313	261	574	62	233	16	10	267	67	-10	-1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Gold	—	72	62	10	3	0	0	5	19	5	6	0	161	278	210	487	48	233	26	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals Gold	—	72	59	13	4	0	0	8	13	5	6	0	220	361	288	649	68	283	18	11	313	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	470	407	80	16	3	11	36	119	16	22	3	197	288	332	619	135	243	25	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	470	382	95	20	4	14	61	81	16	22	3	249	375	432	807	183	276	17	13	356	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	311	73	8	1	5	31	74	12	20	4	235	328	315	643	80	289	21	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	301	81	9	1	6	41	55	12	20	4	269	379	365	744	96	309	15	11	341	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	211	42	6	2	1	26	41	9	3	5	199	313	261	574	62	238	16	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	196	46	7	2	1	41	33	9	3	5	235	390	306	696	71	273	13	16	330	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL MLE	Tucson Baseball Team	—	281	247	80	19	3	1	25	24	4	9	3	324	395	437	832	113	356	9	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL RAW	Tucson Baseball Team	—	281	247	80	19	3	1	25	24	4	9	3	324	395	437	832	113	356	9	9	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals Gold	—	72	62	10	3	0	0	5	19	5	6	0	161	278	210	487	48	217	26	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	470	415	80	16	3	11	36	119	16	22	3	193	288	325	613	133	235	25	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	311	73	8	1	5	31	74	12	20	4	235	328	315	643	80	280	21	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	212	42	6	2	1	26	41	9	3	5	198	313	259	572	61	233	16	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	357	311	73	8	1	5	31	74	12	20	4	235	328	315	643	80	280	21	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	249	212	42	6	2	1	26	41	9	3	5	198	313	259	572	61	233	16	10	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	KC	0%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	214	312	286	598	71	283	19	12	291	83	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	26%	233	203	46	9	1	3	23	49	5	4	2	227	320	325	645	99	283	21	10	294	85	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	37%	280	246	55	11	1	3	27	60	5	5	2	224	313	313	626	89	283	21	10	294	85	-5	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	26%	60	53	12	2	0	1	6	13	1	1	0	226	317	321	637	94	280	22	10	276	85	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	37%	102	89	20	4	1	1	10	22	2	2	1	225	317	326	643	101	280	22	10	276	85	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	162	142	32	6	1	2	16	35	3	3	1	225	317	324	641	99	283	22	10	276	48	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	128	24	4	8	64	140	12	12	4	225	316	323	639	98	282	22	10	276	48	-12	+1	-3	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1958	1701	389	73	11	24	175	389	56	69	19	229	321	327	648	98	280	20	9	239	48	-9	+0	-2	-3	+11	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	129	24	4	8	58	129	19	23	6	228	321	327	649	99	279	20	9	239	48	-12	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	365	4	6	227	316	318	-2	+0	0.2	0.2
/162	664	7	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
River Town (OGILVIE)	27	62	30	46	58	223/316/310	87	283	2	4	21%	10%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Forrestt Allday 2018 · AAA	27	52→48	35→30	43→50	53	242/319/294	52	292	3	13	17%	9%	79	-0.2	230/304/303	73	289	5	12	21%	8%	76	-0.4	221/300/285	64	283	3	11	21%	7%	67	-0.9
✕Kevin Kaczmarski 2019 · AAA	27	53→55	37→40	47→50	47	248/311/326	79	321	3	11	23%	7%	82	+0.0	229/295/320	91	314	7	11	27%	8%	76	-0.4	203/276/274	70	280	6	11	28%	9%	57	-0.5
✕Jamie Johnson 2014 · AAA	27	53→55	36→40	50	56	248/326/316	67	296	3	16	16%	10%	86	+0.3	234/304/320	86	270	5	13	14%	9%	79	-0.2	227/294/312	85	254	5	9	12%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Tim Fedroff 2014 · AAA	27	52→61	39→40	49→50	50	247/308/330	83	307	6	15	21%	8%	82	+0.0	222/292/301	79	302	6	11	26%	9%	70	-0.8	206/284/264	59	291	3	6	28%	10%	58	-1.2
✕Chase Calabuig 2023 · AA	27	50→59	41→40	46→45	50	242/304/344	102	285	9	5	18%	8%	84	+0.2	255/311/382	127	296	11	7	17%	7%	96	+1.0	300/346/461	162	329	12	3	12%	7%	122	+0.9
✕Scott Tousa 2006 · AA	26	51→53	38→30	44→45	48	242/317/319	77	301	6	8	20%	7%	84	+0.2	220/288/295	75	285	6	8	23%	7%	68	-1.0	165/232/179	15	222	0	3	24%	6%	20	-1.0
✕Ryan Lollis 2014 · AAA	27	52→61	41→40	43→45	48	250/301/350	100	291	8	6	17%	6%	84	+0.2	247/294/336	89	286	7	8	15%	6%	78	-0.3	250/298/328	77	291	5	8	15%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Alec Keller 2019 · AA	27	56→55	38→40	48→50	43	267/305/354	86	327	5	8	20%	5%	86	+0.3	255/298/338	83	312	6	11	19%	5%	80	-0.1	255/292/318	63	317	3	12	20%	4%	70	-0.6
✕Kevin Taylor 2018 · AA	27	55→60	39→40	45→40	52	261/325/345	84	305	6	3	16%	8%	93	+0.8	239/285/313	74	281	4	5	16%	6%	70	-0.9	235/271/294	59	274	2	3	14%	4%	58	-1.4
✕Josh Fellhauer 2015 · AAA	27	53	38→40	45	48	247/310/330	83	328	4	6	24%	8%	83	+0.1	225/292/312	87	299	6	11	25%	8%	73	-0.6	206/280/261	55	268	4	15	23%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Alan Sanchez 2016 · AAA	27	55→59	37→40	48→50	43	259/298/335	76	323	4	13	21%	5%	79	-0.2	256/294/335	79	311	5	11	18%	5%	78	-0.3	258/292/335	77	307	5	9	17%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Carlos Penuelas 2015 · AAA	27	50	38→30	43→50	46	238/291/320	81	291	6	10	20%	6%	74	-0.5	249/291/312	63	302	4	11	18%	5%	72	-0.7	256/293/298	42	308	2	9	17%	4%	66	-0.5
✕Taylor Dugas 2015 · AAA	25	57→61	36→30	47→50	54	264/344/337	73	311	3	10	15%	9%	98	+1.2	237/304/309	72	289	3	11	18%	7%	77	-0.3	222/287/262	39	270	0	12	16%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Alden Carrithers 2011 · AA	26	57→60	36→30	48→55	57	264/344/326	62	316	3	14	16%	10%	95	+1.0	263/331/329	66	303	2	18	13%	9%	91	+0.6	268/335/332	64	303	1	22	11%	8%	90	+0.3
✕Eric Filia 2019 · AA	27	56→61	38→40	45	52	264/321/349	85	292	5	5	12%	7%	91	+0.7	250/321/348	98	288	7	7	14%	9%	92	+0.7	256/347/360	104	297	7	6	15%	11%	104	+0.4
✕Will Maddox 2019 · AA	27	55→61	37→30	47→50	40	258/290/331	73	325	4	12	22%	4%	75	-0.5	223/263/309	86	287	6	11	23%	5%	61	-1.5	159/192/209	50	205	4	13	24%	4%	9	-1.2
✕Bryson Brigman 2022 · AAA	27	51→59	39→40	48→50	48	244/302/337	94	299	6	10	20%	7%	82	+0.0	234/285/327	93	298	7	11	23%	6%	74	-0.6	240/296/316	76	297	6	12	20%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Rodrigo Aguirre 2011 · AAA	27	57	39→30	39→45	51	270/323/366	95	301	5	4	12%	7%	96	+1.0	249/290/315	66	292	3	6	15%	5%	72	-0.7	274/302/329	55	316	3	5	14%	4%	77	-0.1
✕Jesus Valenzuela 2016 · AAA	27	50	41→40	45→40	50	241/303/336	96	299	8	8	22%	8%	82	+0.0	228/276/331	103	282	10	8	22%	6%	71	-0.8	221/261/301	79	270	7	2	20%	5%	58	-0.4
✕Bengie González 2017 · AAA	27	53→58	39→40	49→50	48	248/298/346	97	298	4	12	18%	7%	82	+0.0	219/269/292	73	273	3	10	20%	6%	59	-1.7	206/256/257	50	257	2	8	19%	6%	44	-1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps