Reed Moring

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#615ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX3 levels	22	17	83	3.58	3.29	24.4%	8.0%	—	K 18.4% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.70	4.70	19.5%	9.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	5	5	28	4.59	4.54	20.6%	9.0%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	7	7	40	4.50	4.46	21.3%	8.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsNick Fraze (age 23) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Noah Denoyer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%19.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	17	83	352	86	28	8	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	17	83	352	86	28	8	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	17	83	352	86	28	8	77%	3.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.5%	2.3%	3.58	3.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	64	272	56	25	8	100%	5.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.58	4.53	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	255	54	22	8	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.45	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	60	252	54	22	8	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.42	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	245	53	22	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.45	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	55	233	50	21	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	51	215	46	20	7	100%	6.4	21.2%	9.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.60	4.67	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	46	193	40	18	7	100%	5.7	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.5%	4.75	4.85	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	28	118	24	11	4	100%	5.6	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	40	169	36	15	5	100%	5.7	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.46	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	47	198	43	17	6	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.43	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	45	18	6	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.1%	4.45	4.46	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	44	19	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	9.0%	12.4%	3.2%	4.51	4.55	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	46	194	41	18	6	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.61	4.68	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	37	17	6	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	3.5%	4.76	4.86	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	302	1274	271	115	40	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.0%	12.2%	3.2%	4.55	4.18	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	76	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	9.0%	12.2%	3.2%	4.55	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		22	17	83	352	65	33	10	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	848	156	80	25	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 52 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.57 (+0.95)K% 25.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.45%	—	×0.740	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.180	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 29 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.71 (+1.17)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.770	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.96%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reed Moring (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	19.5%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.47	21.1%	12.3%	184	-0.23	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	90
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	89
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	89
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	86
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	85
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	84
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.84	16.4%	2.8%	184	+1.25	3.59	281	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	56	21.0%	9.1%	1.21	4.56
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*