Reed Moring — OGILVIE

Reed Moring P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%21.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	17	83	352	86	28	8	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	17	83	352	86	28	8	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIN	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	15	11	52	220	56	16	3	73%	3.5	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	1.4%	2.60	2.62	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIN	6	5	29	126	29	12	5	83%	4.8	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	4.0%	5.59	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	84	356	80	31	11	100%	5.3	22.4%	8.7%	13.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.32	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	86	365	84	31	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.22	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	88	369	86	30	11	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	88	369	86	30	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	86	364	85	30	11	100%	6.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.0%	4.18	4.19	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	84	353	82	30	11	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.27	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	337	84	26	11	100%	6.1	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.2%	4.17	4.13	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	75	317	78	26	11	100%	6.2	24.7%	8.1%	16.5%	3.4%	4.25	4.31	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	70	295	72	25	11	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	3.7%	4.41	4.51	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	65	273	65	24	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.9%	14.9%	3.9%	4.61	4.74	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	41	173	39	15	5	100%	5.1	22.4%	8.7%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.33	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	60	253	58	21	7	100%	5.5	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.30	4.23	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	71	300	70	25	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	76	321	75	26	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	77	27	10	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	3.0%	4.19	4.20	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	77	325	76	27	10	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	74	312	78	24	10	100%	6.2	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	3.2%	4.18	4.14	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	70	296	73	24	10	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.1%	16.5%	3.4%	4.26	4.32	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	68	24	10	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	3.7%	4.42	4.52	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	61	258	61	23	10	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.9%	14.9%	3.9%	4.62	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	676	2856	676	238	92	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.29	3.92	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	70	27	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.2%	4.29	3.92	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		22	17	83	352	65	33	10	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	41	200	848	156	80	25	77%	3.8	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.58	4.35	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reed Moring (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.6%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.24	22.8%	14.4%	258	-0.25	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	79
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	79
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	78
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	78
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	78
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	75	23.5%	8.4%	1.23	4.29
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94