Reed Moring
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 10 | 45 | 188 | 45 | 14 | 3 | 71% | 3.2 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 2.38 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 30 | 128 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 76 | 316 | 75 | 26 | 7 | — | — | 23.6% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 3.16 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 31 | 133 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 32 | 136 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 33 | 138 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 32 | 136 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 3 | 3 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.11 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 26 | 150 | 635 | 157 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 3.72 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 72 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 10 | 45 | 188 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 71% | 3.2 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 2.38 | 3.92 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 44 | 200 | 829 | 148 | 75 | 18 | 71% | 3.2 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 2.38 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reed Moring (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.11 | 24.4% | 15.8% | 96 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 84 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 80 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 80 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 79 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 79 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 79 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 79 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 32 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 1.14 | 4.15 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |