Tanner Franklin — OGILVIE

Tanner Franklin P Peoria Chiefs

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%24.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4045

CMD3540

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	105	446	133	45	11	100%	4.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.26	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	105	446	133	45	11	100%	4.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	STL	19	19	73	310	91	32	9	100%	3.8	29.4%	10.3%	19.0%	2.9%	4.21	3.52	—
2026	22	AA RAW	STL	6	6	32	136	42	13	2	100%	5.4	30.9%	9.6%	21.3%	1.5%	3.34	2.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	107	451	113	47	13	100%	5.3	25.1%	10.5%	14.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.31	+0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	109	462	118	46	13	100%	5.5	25.4%	10.0%	15.5%	2.9%	4.26	4.20	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	111	468	120	46	14	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.7%	15.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.14	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	468	121	45	14	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.6%	16.1%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	109	461	119	45	14	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.7%	16.0%	3.0%	4.16	4.16	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	106	447	114	44	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	3.1%	4.21	4.25	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	426	108	43	14	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	3.2%	4.31	4.38	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	401	100	42	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.7%	3.4%	4.46	4.55	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	374	92	40	14	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.76	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	346	84	39	13	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.1%	13.1%	3.9%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	53	224	56	24	6	100%	5.3	25.1%	10.5%	14.6%	2.7%	4.26	4.20	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	76	321	82	32	9	100%	5.4	25.4%	10.0%	15.5%	2.7%	4.15	4.09	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	97	37	10	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.7%	15.9%	2.7%	4.08	4.03	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	106	39	11	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.1%	2.7%	4.04	4.01	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	108	41	12	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.7%	16.0%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	105	40	12	100%	6.1	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	2.8%	4.09	4.13	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	94	397	101	40	12	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.1%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.26	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	94	39	12	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.7%	3.2%	4.33	4.42	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	87	38	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.4%	4.50	4.62	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	78	329	80	37	12	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.1%	13.1%	3.6%	4.70	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	145	857	3617	915	367	107	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.22	3.87	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	214	86	25	100%	5.9	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.22	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		28	28	111	474	113	56	14	100%	4.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.9%	3.81	4.17	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	854	204	101	25	100%	4.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.9%	3.81	4.17	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Franklin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	24.7%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.22	25.4%	15.3%	327	-0.26	—	—	—
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	87
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	86
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	80
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	77
Bryan Woo R 2022 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	24.4%	10.9%	2.2%	.348	3.44	25.2%	19.9%	440	-0.18	3.20	654	77
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	77
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	77
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	94	25.3%	10.2%	1.22	4.34
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17