Tanner Franklin

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#322ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	3	3	6	1.50	2.60	32.1%	17.9%	—	K 32.1% · BB 17.9% · FIP 2.65
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	105	3.94	3.21	29.8%	10.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.58	4.58	24.5%	12.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	6	6	36	4.35	4.30	24.8%	11.2%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSTL	9	9	52	4.26	4.21	25.0%	10.6%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 73%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Blake Wehunt (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%24.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.65	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	6	28	9	5	0	100%	2.0	32.1%	17.9%	14.3%	0.0%	1.50	2.60	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	105	446	133	45	11	100%	4.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.26	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	105	446	133	45	11	100%	4.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.26	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	105	446	133	45	11	100%	4.2	29.8%	10.1%	19.7%	2.5%	3.94	3.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.5%	12.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	83	349	87	39	10	100%	5.5	24.8%	11.2%	13.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	78	329	82	35	10	100%	6.0	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.32	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	77	325	81	34	10	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.4%	14.7%	2.9%	4.32	4.29	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	75	316	79	33	9	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.4%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	71	301	75	32	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.38	4.41	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	66	280	69	30	9	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.54	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	60	252	61	28	9	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.1%	13.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	247	64	26	9	100%	5.8	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.7%	4.64	4.65	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	51	214	54	24	8	100%	6.3	25.4%	11.0%	14.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.88	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	36	152	38	17	4	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.2%	13.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.30	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	52	220	55	23	6	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.21	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	61	258	64	27	7	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.4%	14.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.18	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	64	270	67	28	8	100%	5.8	24.9%	10.4%	14.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.22	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	63	266	66	28	8	100%	6.3	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.29	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	60	253	62	27	8	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.42	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	55	232	56	26	7	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.1%	13.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.59	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	59	24	8	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.4%	4.50	4.51	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	48	203	51	22	7	100%	6.0	25.4%	11.0%	14.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	493	2081	519	223	62	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	3.0%	4.35	3.99	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	90	25	100%	6.0	25.0%	10.7%	14.3%	3.0%	4.35	3.99	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		28	28	111	474	113	56	14	100%	4.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.9%	3.81	4.17	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	854	204	101	25	100%	4.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.9%	3.81	4.17	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 73 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.69 (+1.16)K% 29.4% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.35%	—	×0.770	22.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.150	11.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 32 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.29 (+0.78)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.88%	—	×0.810	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.56%	—	×1.100	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 4 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.39 (+0.87)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.857	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Franklin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.34	25.0%	14.2%	238	-0.24	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	89
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	89
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	85
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	85
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	85
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	85
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	83
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	82
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	82
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	82
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	69	24.9%	10.9%	1.22	4.48
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12