Tanner Franklin P Peoria Chiefs
Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
K%23.8%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: +3.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+3KBB: -3.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-4BBCONTACT: -9.4 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-9CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.36 (100 IP)+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.20.20.20.20.2+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF4050
CTRL4045
CMD3540
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2032Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202521MIX2 levels33628950100%2.032.1%17.9%14.3%0.0%1.502.65
202521MIX2 levels33628950100%2.032.1%17.9%14.3%0.0%1.502.60
▸ 2026 Season
202622A+Peoria Chiefs16165825472309100%3.621.8%13.6%8.2%4.4%4.815.41-0.6
ROS22MLBSTL884217742215100%5.223.8%11.9%11.9%3.1%4.654.65-0.0
ROS22MLBSTL023.8%11.9%11.9%3.0%4.654.65
2026 TOT22MLBSTL100431114511426.5%11.8%14.6%3.3%4.745.09+0.4
2026 FULL22MLBSTL0100023.8%11.9%11.9%3.0%4.654.27+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBSTL884418445206100%5.524.5%11.0%13.5%3.0%4.524.45+0.1
202824MLBSTL884518947206100%5.624.9%10.4%14.5%3.0%4.404.33+0.1
202925MLBSTL884519148196100%5.725.2%10.1%15.1%3.0%4.314.26+0.2
203026MLBSTL884519149196100%5.725.4%10.1%15.3%3.0%4.264.23+0.2
203127MLBSTL774518848196100%6.425.4%10.1%15.2%3.0%4.274.27+0.1
203228MLBSTL774318346196100%6.225.3%10.3%15.0%3.1%4.324.36+0.1
202723MLBSTL44229323103100%5.524.5%11.0%13.5%3.0%4.524.45+0.0
202824MLBSTL663113133144100%5.224.9%10.4%14.5%3.0%4.404.33+0.1
202925MLBSTL663715639165100%6.225.2%10.1%15.1%2.9%4.314.26+0.1
203026MLBSTL774016943175100%5.725.4%10.1%15.3%3.0%4.264.23+0.2
203127MLBSTL774016943175100%5.725.4%10.1%15.2%3.0%4.274.27+0.1
203228MLBSTL774016943175100%5.725.3%10.3%15.0%3.1%4.324.36+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career36362108852239126100%5.825.2%10.3%14.9%3.0%4.333.92+3.6
/ 200 IP34342008442138725100%5.825.2%10.3%14.9%3.0%4.333.92+3.5
Career191964282643911100%3.422.9%14.0%8.8%4.0%4.505.13-0.4
/ 200 IP595920088120112335100%3.422.9%14.0%8.8%4.0%4.505.13+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Tanner Franklin (OGILVIE) 4.65 23.8%11.9%3.1% 4.35 24.9%14.4%134 -0.30
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 86
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 21.1%11.5%3.8%.309 4.59 17.7%2.6%40 -0.27 4.59 115 86
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP 22 SP 3.61 22.5%12.8%1.4%.286 3.29 24.5%11.4%79 -0.32 3.12 132 86
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 22 SP 4.04 23.1%10.8%2.8%.311 3.85 20.9%11.1%236 -0.19 3.12 482 86
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 85
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 23 SP 3.92 20.3%9.9%2.3%.315 4.36 22.3%13.8%422 +0.44 3.76 537 83
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP 3.71 21.9%10.5%2.0%.264 4.60 19.1%9.4%359 +0.89 3.71 429 83
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP 22 SP 4.32 20.0%12.1%2.5%.360 3.85 19.2%9.8%132 -0.47 3.70 192 83
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 24.5%12.3%2.7%.297 3.46 22.4%14.1%150 -0.61 3.11 420 82
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP 23 SP 4.82 21.7%13.8%3.3%.311 5.12 20.7%10.3%296 +0.30 3.36 432 82
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP 22 SP 5.02 19.6%12.4%3.6%.321 4.92 22.7%6.2%260 -0.10 4.38 406 82
River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP 23 SP 3.58 26.1%12.2%2.1%.321 3.86 20.4%9.1%134 +0.28 2.13 218 82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 18.8%10.5%3.4%.331 6.04 21.6%9.0%233 +1.32 4.72 283 81
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP 22 SP- 3.85 20.9%11.4%2.0%.333 3.99 21.4%12.6%184 +0.14 2.91 439 81
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP 23 SP 4.23 21.7%8.4%3.5%.329 3.55 21.5%12.4%178 -0.68 2.49 298 81
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP 22 SP 5.01 21.8%12.7%3.9%.302 4.47 15.2%5.3%127 -0.54 3.95 411 81
Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 22 SP 4.36 22.8%8.8%3.8%.309 4.57 21.5%2.4%151 +0.21 4.05 215 81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 21.9%9.8%2.7%.175 4.15 18.0%7.5%168 +0.15 3.59 307 81
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP 23 SP 5.00 21.4%10.8%4.2%.236 4.59 22.3%3.9%180 -0.41 4.20 311 80
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 22 SP 4.06 19.3%9.9%2.4%.268 5.93 17.4%2.1%47 +1.87 4.06 101 79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION74424.9%10.5%1.164.39
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Dominic Leone ('23)74624.2%10.1%1.333.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)65726.2%9.9%1.394.33
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Brad Boxberger ('23)84327.1%11.7%1.173.86