Daniel Eagen — OGILVIE

Daniel Eagen P Springfield Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%25.3%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—50

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$21M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	25.1%	12.6%	12.6%	2.9%	2.99	4.14	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	25.1%	12.6%	12.6%	2.9%	2.99	4.14	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	32.4%	11.0%	21.4%	2.5%	2.99	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	5.6%	4.72	5.21	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	5.6%	4.72	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	30.7%	8.0%	22.7%	4.7%	4.72	4.10	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	8	35	9	5	1	100%	4.2	25.3%	12.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	130	547	166	46	25	—	—	30.3%	8.3%	22.0%	4.6%	4.71	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	148	627	160	72	19	100%	5.5	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	168	711	182	76	21	100%	5.8	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.0%	4.37	4.30	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	175	739	189	78	22	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.28	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	728	186	77	22	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	167	706	179	75	22	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.7%	14.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.40	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	160	674	170	73	22	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.53	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	634	157	71	22	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	3.5%	4.61	4.71	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	140	591	144	68	22	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.7%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	130	547	131	65	22	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.9%	12.0%	4.0%	5.00	5.14	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	65	274	70	31	8	100%	5.4	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.31	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	113	477	122	51	13	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	2.8%	4.26	4.19	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	139	587	150	62	16	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.17	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	147	621	159	65	17	100%	6.1	25.5%	10.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.20	4.20	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	149	629	160	67	18	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.7%	14.8%	2.9%	4.25	4.28	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	145	612	154	67	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	3.0%	4.34	4.40	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	138	583	145	65	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.58	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	130	549	134	63	19	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.77	-0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	121	511	123	61	19	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.9%	12.0%	3.7%	4.85	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	193	1149	4850	1218	534	148	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.05	+11.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	212	93	26	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		49	49	239	984	246	104	42	100%	4.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	4.3%	3.87	4.70	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	822	205	87	35	100%	4.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	4.3%	3.87	4.70	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Eagen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	25.3%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.33	25.6%	14.7%	492	-0.29	—	—	—
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	87
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	87
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	86
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	82
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	82
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.13	19.2%	10.0%	219	+0.69	3.44	428	82
Joey Murray R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP	3.58	23.4%	9.9%	2.2%	.285	6.12	20.0%	4.6%	21	+2.54	3.58	170	82
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	82
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	81
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.73	19.9%	8.5%	305	-0.04	3.90	538	81
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	80
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	80
Zach McCambley R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP	4.97	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.29	24.5%	12.5%	123	-1.68	2.55	376	80
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	80
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	151	25.2%	11.1%	1.25	4.51
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45