Daniel Eagen

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#397ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	117	2.99	3.15	32.4%	11.0%	—	K 25.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.14
2026	23	AASTL	26	26	122	4.72	4.09	30.7%	8.0%	—	K 24.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	1	2	4.82	4.82	25.4%	10.5%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	48	4.57	4.53	25.4%	9.9%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSTL	13	13	76	4.51	4.49	25.4%	9.7%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 72%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Carson Ragsdale (age 23) · Will Warren (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%25.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%14.9%

Proj IP102

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	25.1%	12.6%	12.6%	2.9%	2.99	4.14	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	25.1%	12.6%	12.6%	2.9%	2.99	4.14	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	117	472	153	52	12	100%	5.1	32.4%	11.0%	21.4%	2.5%	2.99	3.15	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	5.6%	4.72	5.21	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	5.6%	4.72	5.21	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	122	512	157	41	24	100%	4.7	30.7%	8.0%	22.7%	4.7%	4.72	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.4%	10.5%	14.9%	3.9%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	110	464	118	46	18	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	3.8%	4.72	4.68	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	113	478	121	46	18	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.63	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	109	459	116	44	17	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	3.8%	4.64	4.65	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	104	438	109	43	17	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	3.9%	4.68	4.72	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	408	101	41	16	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.7%	4.0%	4.78	4.85	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	371	91	38	16	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	4.2%	4.93	5.03	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	78	331	79	35	15	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	4.4%	5.11	5.23	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	48	203	52	20	7	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	3.6%	4.57	4.53	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	76	321	81	31	11	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	3.5%	4.51	4.49	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	89	34	12	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	3.5%	4.50	4.51	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	92	36	13	100%	6.2	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	3.6%	4.53	4.57	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	85	359	89	36	13	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.0%	14.7%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	81	34	13	100%	6.1	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	3.9%	4.77	4.87	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	73	32	13	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	4.1%	4.94	5.06	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	531	2243	558	224	83	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.0%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.30	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	210	84	31	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.0%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		49	49	239	984	246	104	42	100%	4.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	4.3%	3.87	4.70	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	822	205	87	35	100%	4.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	4.3%	3.87	4.70	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 122 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.21 (+1.11)K% 30.7% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.66%	—	×0.810	24.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.100	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 98 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.71 (+1.15)K% 34.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.11%	—	×0.770	26.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.150	12.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.968	×1.250	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 20 IPFIP 5.88 → 6.12 (+0.24)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.810	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×1.100	14.24%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.333	×1.200	5.30%

Result: FIP 5.88 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Eagen (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.9%	—	4.65	25.3%	15.6%	332	-0.17	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	90
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	88
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	85
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	84
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	83
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	83
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	82
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	82
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	81
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.15	19.3%	12.4%	283	+0.22	3.04	593	81
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	80
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	79
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	79
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	79
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	79
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	79
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	100	25.0%	10.0%	1.53	4.78
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Buzz Capra ('71-'77, 4 WAR*)	2.7	109	22.1%*	10.5%*	1.51*	4.21*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.2	112	24.9%	11.3%	1.69	4.55
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46