Conner Ware

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1352ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	11	78	4.52	5.04	27.6%	12.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.80
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.28	5.28	21.1%	12.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	4	4	25	5.07	5.00	21.9%	11.6%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	5	5	37	4.91	4.83	22.4%	10.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJoe Kemlage (age 23) · Nate Peterson (age 23) · Bailey Horn (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%21.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	78	337	93	43	16	50%	3.5	20.2%	13.4%	6.8%	6.8%	4.52	6.80	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	78	337	93	43	16	50%	3.5	20.2%	13.4%	6.8%	6.8%	4.52	6.80	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	78	337	93	43	16	50%	3.5	27.6%	12.8%	14.8%	4.7%	4.52	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	12.8%	8.3%	3.6%	5.28	5.28	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	59	251	55	29	9	100%	7.4	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.5%	5.07	5.00	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	56	236	53	25	8	100%	7.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.6%	3.4%	4.91	4.83	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	55	232	53	25	8	100%	6.9	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.78	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	53	225	51	24	8	100%	6.7	22.6%	10.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.81	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	51	214	48	23	8	100%	7.2	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	3.5%	4.86	4.89	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	47	198	44	22	7	100%	6.7	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.96	5.02	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	6	6	42	178	39	20	7	100%	7.0	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.9%	5.10	5.20	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	25	106	23	12	4	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	3.5%	5.07	5.00	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	37	156	35	17	5	100%	7.4	22.4%	10.7%	11.6%	3.4%	4.91	4.83	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	44	186	42	20	6	100%	7.3	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.78	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	46	194	44	21	7	100%	6.6	22.6%	10.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.81	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	45	190	43	21	7	100%	7.5	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	3.5%	4.86	4.89	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	43	182	40	20	7	100%	7.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	39	165	36	19	6	100%	6.5	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.9%	5.09	5.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	278	1173	262	128	42	100%	7.1	22.4%	10.9%	11.4%	3.5%	4.92	4.54	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	189	92	30	100%	7.1	22.4%	10.9%	11.4%	3.5%	4.92	4.54	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		22	11	78	337	68	45	23	50%	3.5	20.2%	13.4%	6.8%	6.8%	4.52	6.80	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	28	200	868	175	116	59	50%	3.5	20.2%	13.4%	6.8%	6.8%	4.52	6.80	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 72 IPFIP 5.09 → 6.80 (+1.71)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.180	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	5.19%	÷1.000	×1.300	6.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.09 → 6.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 6 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.10 (+1.13)K% 31.0% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.770	23.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.59%	—	×1.150	31.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conner Ware (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	21.1%	12.8%	3.6%	—	4.87	22.3%	11.3%	170	-0.41	—	—	—
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	86
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	83
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	82
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	82
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	82
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	80
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	80
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	79
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	79
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	78
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	77
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	77
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	77
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	76
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	75
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	75
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	52	22.2%	11.2%	1.37	4.97
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*