Conner Ware — OGILVIE

Conner Ware P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%22.5%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	22	11	78	337	93	43	16	50%	3.5	20.5%	15.0%	5.5%	6.2%	4.52	6.65	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	22	11	78	337	93	43	16	50%	3.5	20.5%	15.0%	5.5%	6.2%	4.52	6.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	20	10	72	308	84	35	16	50%	3.6	27.3%	11.4%	15.9%	5.2%	4.40	5.09	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	2	1	6	29	9	8	0	50%	3.0	31.0%	27.6%	3.4%	0.0%	6.00	3.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	79	334	78	37	10	100%	7.2	23.3%	11.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.58	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	81	342	82	35	10	100%	7.4	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.41	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	82	346	84	34	10	100%	6.8	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	82	346	84	33	10	100%	6.8	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	81	341	83	33	10	100%	7.3	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	78	331	87	30	10	100%	7.1	26.2%	9.0%	17.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	75	316	82	29	10	100%	6.8	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.27	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	70	297	76	28	10	100%	7.0	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	3.5%	4.37	4.45	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	66	277	70	27	10	100%	7.3	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	3.7%	4.54	4.65	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	61	256	63	26	10	100%	6.7	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	4.0%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	39	165	38	18	5	100%	6.5	23.3%	11.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.58	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	57	241	57	25	7	100%	7.1	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.41	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	67	283	68	27	8	100%	7.4	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	72	304	74	29	9	100%	7.2	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	73	308	75	30	9	100%	7.3	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	72	304	80	28	10	100%	7.2	26.2%	9.0%	17.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.14	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	70	296	77	27	10	100%	7.0	25.9%	9.3%	16.7%	3.3%	4.25	4.27	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	66	279	71	27	10	100%	7.3	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	3.5%	4.37	4.45	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	62	262	66	26	10	100%	6.9	25.2%	9.9%	15.3%	3.7%	4.53	4.64	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	58	245	61	25	10	100%	7.2	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	4.0%	4.73	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	634	2678	666	262	87	100%	7.0	24.9%	9.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.41	4.03	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	210	83	27	100%	7.1	24.9%	9.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.41	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		22	11	78	337	69	50	21	50%	3.5	20.5%	15.0%	5.5%	6.2%	4.52	6.65	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	28	200	868	178	130	54	50%	3.5	20.5%	15.0%	5.5%	6.2%	4.52	6.65	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conner Ware (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	22.5%	12.3%	3.1%	—	4.43	23.8%	13.5%	242	-0.41	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	81
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	80
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	79
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	77
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	75
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	74
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	74
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	73
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	73
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	73
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	73
Parker Mushinski L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	22	SW	3.73	22.3%	13.7%	1.4%	.269	3.53	23.3%	14.7%	118	-0.20	3.11	455	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	71
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	71	24.7%	9.9%	1.25	4.44
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59