Brady Smith

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#347ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	MIX2 levels	10	9	21	6.00	4.15	31.9%	19.8%	—	K 31.9% · BB 19.8% · FIP 4.12
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	81	4.24	2.89	34.2%	9.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	24.8%	12.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	6	6	33	4.41	4.34	25.4%	11.2%	0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	8	8	47	4.30	4.22	25.8%	10.7%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 7.0, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 80%

CompsBrandon Young (age 22) · Carmen Mlodzinski (age 22) · River Ryan (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%24.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.15	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	34.2%	9.9%	24.3%	2.6%	4.24	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.8%	12.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	67	282	72	32	9	100%	5.6	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	67	282	73	30	8	100%	5.6	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.37	4.29	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	63	268	70	28	8	100%	5.8	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	269	70	28	8	100%	5.8	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	3.0%	4.24	4.20	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	263	69	27	8	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.4%	15.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	59	250	65	26	8	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.32	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	55	232	60	25	8	100%	6.1	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.3%	4.39	4.45	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	49	209	53	23	7	100%	6.2	25.5%	11.1%	14.5%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	44	184	46	21	7	100%	6.2	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	3.7%	4.72	4.83	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	35	16	4	100%	5.5	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	51	21	6	100%	5.9	25.8%	10.7%	15.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.22	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	51	215	56	22	6	100%	5.7	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.21	4.15	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	56	236	62	24	7	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.13	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	56	236	62	25	7	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.4%	15.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	55	232	61	24	7	100%	6.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	3.0%	4.22	4.25	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	56	23	7	100%	6.4	25.9%	10.8%	15.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.37	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	50	21	6	100%	5.8	25.5%	11.1%	14.5%	3.3%	4.46	4.55	+0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	41	173	43	20	6	100%	5.9	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	3.5%	4.63	4.74	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	436	1842	476	197	56	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.30	3.93	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	218	90	26	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.7%	15.2%	3.0%	4.30	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		33	32	102	436	117	58	14	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	63	200	858	230	114	27	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 65 IPFIP 2.55 → 4.01 (+1.46)K% 37.5% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.55%	—	×0.740	27.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.75%	—	×1.180	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 16 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.28 (+1.00)K% 20.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.770	15.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.150	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 10 IPFIP 5.34 → 7.22 (+1.88)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.680	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.41%	—	×1.250	25.51%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.187	×1.400	4.81%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 5.34 → 7.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 11 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.86 (+1.17)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.180	22.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.055	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.31	25.8%	15.0%	197	-0.30	—	—	—
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	86
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	84
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	84
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	81
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	80
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	78
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	78
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	78
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	78
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	59	25.7%	10.9%	1.21	4.40
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*