Brady Smith — OGILVIE

Brady Smith P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%24.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$43M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3555

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$10M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.7	$9M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$13M	+1.5	$7M	+$0.7M
Totals		$32M		$51M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	21	91	29	18	2	90%	2.1	31.9%	19.8%	12.1%	2.2%	6.00	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	23	23	81	345	118	34	9	100%	3.5	25.4%	11.6%	13.9%	3.4%	4.24	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	DET	19	19	65	277	104	27	7	100%	3.4	37.5%	9.7%	27.8%	2.5%	3.88	2.55	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	DET	4	4	16	68	14	7	2	100%	3.9	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	2.9%	5.74	4.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	119	502	121	51	15	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	158	665	164	63	19	100%	5.4	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.19	+1.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	31	31	175	739	186	66	21	100%	5.6	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	2.9%	4.15	4.08	+1.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	748	191	65	21	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	2.9%	4.07	4.01	+1.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	30	30	177	748	192	65	21	100%	5.9	25.7%	8.7%	17.0%	2.9%	4.02	3.99	+1.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	29	29	174	737	189	65	22	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	2.9%	4.03	4.03	+1.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	28	28	169	715	183	64	22	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	3.0%	4.08	4.11	+1.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	27	27	162	683	173	63	22	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	3.2%	4.18	4.24	+1.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	25	25	152	642	160	61	22	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.5%	3.4%	4.33	4.42	+0.9
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	142	598	147	59	22	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.8%	14.7%	3.6%	4.51	4.62	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	131	554	133	57	21	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.8%	4.71	4.85	+0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	120	508	120	54	21	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	4.1%	4.94	5.10	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	59	249	60	25	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.29	4.29	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	115	486	120	46	14	100%	5.5	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.18	4.12	+1.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	145	612	154	55	17	100%	5.6	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	2.8%	4.08	4.01	+1.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	156	659	168	58	18	100%	5.8	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	2.8%	4.00	3.94	+1.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	162	684	176	60	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.7%	17.0%	2.8%	3.95	3.92	+1.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	27	27	162	684	176	60	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	2.8%	3.96	3.96	+1.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	158	667	170	60	19	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	2.9%	4.01	4.04	+1.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	26	26	154	650	165	60	20	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.17	+1.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	24	24	144	608	152	58	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.5%	15.5%	3.2%	4.25	4.34	+0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	22	22	135	570	140	56	20	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.8%	14.7%	3.4%	4.43	4.54	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	DET	21	21	125	528	127	54	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.2%	13.9%	3.7%	4.62	4.76	+0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	DET	19	19	114	481	114	51	19	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.7%	12.9%	3.9%	4.84	5.00	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		278	278	1628	6875	1720	641	210	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.1%	4.20	3.85	+20.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	79	26	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.3%	15.7%	3.1%	4.20	3.85	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		33	32	102	436	117	58	14	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+13.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	63	200	858	230	114	27	97%	3.1	26.8%	13.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.23	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	24.9%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.19	24.7%	15.3%	452	-0.17	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	86
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	81
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.91	18.6%	8.8%	311	+1.74	3.17	421	81
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	80
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	79
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	79
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	78
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	78
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	78
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.15	394	78
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	77
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	77
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	77
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.4	144	25.0%	9.4%	1.23	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68