Brady Smith
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA4.09
FIP4.09
K%27.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%17.3%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 21 | 91 | 29 | 18 | 2 | 90% | 2.1 | 31.9% | 19.8% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 6.00 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 21 | 91 | 29 | 18 | 2 | 90% | 2.1 | 31.9% | 19.8% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 6.00 | 4.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 18 | 18 | 60 | 256 | 99 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 3.4 | 28.6% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.03 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 45 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.0% | 9.7% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.0% | 9.7% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.04 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 100 | 424 | 144 | 41 | 12 | — | — | 34.1% | 9.8% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 90 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 3.92 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 128 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 163 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.92 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 163 | 689 | 187 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.1% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 3.86 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 202 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.84 | +3.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 199 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 8.7% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 192 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +2.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 182 | 61 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 4.09 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 169 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.27 | +2.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 155 | 57 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 141 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.56 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 127 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 4.1% | 4.79 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 94 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 119 | 502 | 135 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.88 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 144 | 608 | 165 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.1% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.82 | +2.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 160 | 676 | 185 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.80 | +3.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 160 | 676 | 184 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.3% | 8.7% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +2.9 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 179 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.2% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.91 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 173 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.0% | 9.0% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 161 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 3.3% | 4.12 | 4.22 | +2.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 147 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 134 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 120 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 259 | 259 | 1524 | 6435 | 1720 | 591 | 201 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 3.72 | +30.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 226 | 78 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 27 | 81 | 347 | 102 | 48 | 11 | 96% | 2.9 | 29.5% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.10 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 66 | 200 | 853 | 251 | 117 | 27 | 96% | 2.9 | 29.5% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brady Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.09 | 27.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 3.95 | 26.9% | 17.9% | 336 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| River Ryan R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 79 |
| Michael Grove R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 79 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 79 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 78 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.56 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | .392 | 4.05 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 198 | -0.51 | 3.53 | 281 | 78 |
| Brendan Beck R 2029 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 78 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.03 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.12 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +2.09 | 3.03 | 420 | 77 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 77 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 76 |
| Brandon Young R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 76 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 75 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 75 |
| Alec Hansen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.62 | 30.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | .150 | 4.38 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 222 | +0.76 | 3.38 | 288 | 75 |
| Nate Dohm R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 75 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 75 |
| Cade Horton R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.09 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .273 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 181 | +0.48 | 3.09 | 270 | 75 |
| Owen White R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.00 | 29.6% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .343 | 4.83 | 18.2% | 7.3% | 288 | +1.83 | 3.00 | 402 | 74 |
| Sean Mooney R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 74 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 135 | 26.8% | 9.2% | 1.23 | 4.10 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |