James Ellwanger prospect projection, MLE, ETA

James Ellwanger P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%24.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL4040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	3	3	12	44	15	5	0	100%	3.9	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	3	3	12	44	15	5	0	100%	3.9	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	MIN	3	3	12	44	15	5	0	100%	3.9	34.1%	11.4%	22.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	57	241	60	23	7	100%	5.7	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	247	62	23	7	100%	5.8	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.18	4.11	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	59	250	64	22	7	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	2.9%	4.10	4.05	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	59	250	64	22	7	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.06	4.03	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	246	63	22	7	100%	5.8	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.0%	4.07	4.07	+0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	28	118	29	11	3	100%	5.6	24.8%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	41	173	44	16	5	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	2.9%	4.18	4.11	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	48	203	52	18	6	100%	6.0	25.5%	8.9%	16.6%	2.9%	4.10	4.05	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	52	220	56	19	6	100%	5.8	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.9%	4.06	4.03	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	53	224	57	20	7	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.9%	16.7%	3.0%	4.07	4.07	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	221	934	237	84	27	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.12	3.70	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	214	76	24	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.12	3.70	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		3	3	12	44	11	6	0	100%	3.9	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	51	200	754	190	101	0	100%	3.9	25.2%	13.4%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Ellwanger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	24.1%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.13	25.1%	16.0%	175	-0.26	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	89
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	86
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	86
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	85
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	84
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	83
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	83
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	82
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	81
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	80
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.89	558	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	25.1%	9.3%	1.14	4.18
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01