James Ellwanger
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%24.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 3 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.67 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.1% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 67 | 276 | 71 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 3.56 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 64 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 63 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 57 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 16.9% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 221 | 934 | 237 | 82 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 3.67 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 74 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 3.67 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.67 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 51 | 200 | 754 | 190 | 101 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.67 | +6.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Ellwanger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.09 | 25.1% | 16.3% | 175 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 88 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 86 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 85 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 85 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 84 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 83 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 83 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .297 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 14.1% | 150 | -0.61 | 3.11 | 420 | 83 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 82 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 82 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 82 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 81 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 81 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 81 |
| Brendan Beck R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 81 |
| Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .315 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 75 | +0.76 | 4.70 | 159 | 81 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 81 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 58 | 25.1% | 8.9% | 1.14 | 4.14 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |