Dominick Reid — OGILVIE

Dominick Reid P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 201 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%20.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	13	13	54	228	54	20	4	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	3.86	4.38	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	13	13	54	228	54	20	4	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	3.86	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CHC	12	12	50	213	50	20	4	100%	4.1	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	1.9%	4.17	3.34	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CHC	1	1	4	15	4	0	0	100%	4.0	26.7%	0.0%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	55	231	50	22	7	100%	5.5	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	56	236	53	21	7	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	239	54	21	7	100%	5.7	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	57	239	55	21	7	100%	6.3	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	56	236	54	21	7	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.29	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	27	114	25	11	3	100%	5.4	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.47	4.40	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	39	165	37	15	5	100%	5.6	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	46	194	44	17	5	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	2.8%	4.27	4.21	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	50	211	48	19	6	100%	6.2	23.0%	8.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.22	4.19	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	50	211	48	19	6	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.23	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	212	894	202	80	25	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	3.87	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	76	24	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		13	13	54	228	40	25	6	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	3.86	4.38	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	850	148	94	21	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	3.86	4.38	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominick Reid (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.6%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.36	22.2%	13.2%	167	-0.29	—	—	—
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	92
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	91
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	90
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	88
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	86
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	86
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	85
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	85
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	84
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	83
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	83
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	22.3%	9.1%	1.14	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68