Dominick Reid — OGILVIE

Dominick Reid P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 201 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	12	12	50	213	50	20	4	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	4.17	4.38	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CHC	10	10	50	212	44	20	6	100%	5.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	9.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CHC	—	—	100	425	94	40	10	—	—	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	2.4%	4.38	4.48	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CHC	10	10	52	220	48	20	6	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.42	+0.1
2028	24	MLB	CHC	10	10	54	226	50	20	7	100%	5.3	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.2
2029	25	MLB	CHC	9	9	54	229	52	20	7	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.24	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	CHC	9	9	54	229	53	20	7	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.22	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	CHC	9	9	53	225	52	19	7	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	CHC	9	9	52	219	50	19	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.34	+0.1
2033	29	MLB	CHC	8	8	50	209	47	19	7	100%	6.2	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.2%	4.41	4.47	+0.0
2034	30	MLB	CHC	8	8	46	196	44	18	7	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	3.4%	4.56	4.65	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	CHC	5	5	26	110	24	10	3	100%	5.2	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.49	4.44	+0.0
2028	24	MLB	CHC	7	7	37	156	35	14	5	100%	5.3	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+0.1
2029	25	MLB	CHC	8	8	44	186	42	16	5	100%	5.5	22.7%	8.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.32	4.26	+0.1
2030	26	MLB	CHC	8	8	47	198	46	17	6	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	CHC	8	8	48	203	47	17	6	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	CHC	8	8	48	203	46	18	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
2033	29	MLB	CHC	8	8	46	194	44	17	6	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.3%	4.43	4.49	+0.0
2034	30	MLB	CHC	7	7	44	186	41	17	6	100%	6.3	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	3.5%	4.58	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			58	58	340	1435	324	126	44	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.1%	4.38	4.00	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	191	74	26	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.1%	4.38	4.00	+3.3
Career	—			12	12	50	213	37	24	5	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	4.17	4.38	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—			48	48	200	858	149	95	21	100%	4.1	17.4%	11.1%	6.3%	2.4%	4.17	4.38	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominick Reid (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.6%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.32	22.2%	13.5%	160	-0.27	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	91
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	91
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	91
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	90
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	19.3%	9.9%	2.5%	.305	3.42	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.68	2.58	408	89
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	88
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	87
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	87
Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.1%	9.2%	1.9%	.295	4.74	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.20	3.11	506	87
Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	86
Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	85
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	85
Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	84
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	84
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	84
Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	22.8%	8.8%	3.8%	.309	4.57	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.21	4.05	215	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	84
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	83
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	10.8%	4.2%	.236	4.59	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.41	4.20	311	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.9%	9.8%	2.7%	.175	4.15	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.15	3.59	307	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	52	22.3%	8.9%	1.17	4.39
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Hudson ('24)	9	52	25.5%	8.9%	1.13	3.75
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04