Gabe Davis — OGILVIE

Gabe Davis P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 22 RHP 6'9" / 234 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—40

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	8	8	27	109	33	7	1	100%	3.4	30.3%	6.4%	23.9%	0.9%	2.63	1.86	—
2026	22	AA RAW	NYM	16	15	56	256	61	28	14	94%	3.5	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	5.5%	6.11	5.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	85	358	79	34	11	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.54	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	87	366	83	33	11	100%	5.4	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.40	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	88	371	85	33	11	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	88	371	86	32	11	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.33	4.30	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	87	366	84	32	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.1%	4.34	4.34	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	84	355	81	32	11	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.42	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	80	339	77	31	11	100%	6.2	22.7%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.55	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	75	318	78	28	11	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	70	297	71	27	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.8%	4.59	4.66	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	65	274	65	26	11	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	4.0%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	42	177	39	17	5	100%	5.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.54	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	61	258	58	23	8	100%	5.5	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	3.1%	4.47	4.40	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	72	304	70	27	9	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.38	4.33	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	77	325	75	28	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.33	4.30	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	78	329	76	29	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	3.1%	4.34	4.34	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	77	325	75	29	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	3.2%	4.39	4.42	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	75	317	72	29	11	100%	6.2	22.7%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.55	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	71	300	73	26	11	100%	5.9	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	68	25	11	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	3.8%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	62	262	62	25	10	100%	6.2	23.5%	9.4%	14.1%	4.0%	4.76	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	681	2877	666	258	95	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.47	4.09	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	76	28	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.47	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		24	23	83	365	75	39	18	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	55	200	876	180	93	43	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.2%	10.5%	3.2%	—	4.42	22.5%	13.4%	259	-0.33	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	84
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	75	23.0%	9.0%	1.27	4.48
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98