Gabe Davis

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 RHP 6'9" / 234 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1165ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	24	23	83	4.97	4.44	25.8%	9.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.43
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	1	1	1	5.24	5.24	21.0%	11.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBNYM	5	5	28	5.07	5.02	21.8%	11.1%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBNYM	7	7	40	4.94	4.89	22.3%	10.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Arb-2$0.4M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRyan Jensen (age 23) · CJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%21.0%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	83	365	94	35	15	96%	3.5	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	4.1%	4.97	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.0%	11.9%	9.1%	3.7%	5.24	5.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	64	270	59	30	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.07	5.02	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	250	56	27	9	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.89	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	58	247	56	26	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.87	4.84	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	57	239	54	25	9	100%	6.3	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	227	51	24	8	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.7%	4.91	4.95	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	50	210	47	23	8	100%	6.2	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.8%	5.01	5.08	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	45	189	41	21	8	100%	6.4	21.8%	11.3%	10.6%	4.0%	5.16	5.26	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	28	118	26	13	4	100%	5.6	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.07	5.02	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	40	169	38	18	6	100%	5.7	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.94	4.89	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	46	194	44	20	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.87	4.84	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	46	21	7	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.87	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	45	22	7	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	3.6%	4.90	4.94	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	45	190	42	21	7	100%	5.6	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.8%	5.00	5.07	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	41	173	38	19	7	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.3%	10.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.25	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	297	1254	279	136	46	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.60	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	92	31	100%	5.9	22.3%	10.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.96	4.60	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		24	23	83	365	75	39	18	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	55	200	876	180	93	43	96%	3.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.9%	4.97	5.43	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 56 IPFIP 5.47 → 6.60 (+1.12)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.83%	—	×0.810	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×1.100	12.03%
HR / BF /BF	5.47%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.47 → 6.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 27 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.70 (+0.84)K% 30.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.28%	—	×0.770	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.42%	—	×1.150	7.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabe Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.92	22.2%	11.4%	182	-0.32	—	—	—
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	87
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	84
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	84
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	84
Robbie Peto R 2021 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP	5.81	16.6%	10.7%	5.0%	.303	5.57	15.5%	-1.0%	161	-0.24	5.39	232	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.76	13.6%	5.4%	311	-0.39	4.07	567	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	82
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	82
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	81
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	81
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	56	22.1%	11.0%	1.42	5.01
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*