Evan Siary
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%22.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 4 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 7.50 | 4.19 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 4 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 7.50 | 4.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 15 | 15 | 72 | 287 | 61 | 15 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.7% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 3.39 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 100 | 406 | 88 | 26 | 14 | — | — | 21.7% | 6.3% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 3.66 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 29 | 124 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.83 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 69 | 28 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 18 | 78 | 314 | 51 | 20 | 14 | 95% | 4.1 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.71 | 4.97 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 46 | 200 | 809 | 132 | 51 | 36 | 95% | 4.1 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.71 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Siary (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 23.7% | 15.1% | 29 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 89 |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 89 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 86 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 84 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 84 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 83 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 82 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 82 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 82 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 82 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 81 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 81 |
| Brendan Beck R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 80 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 79 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 79 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 79 |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 1.17 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |