Evan Siary

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#396ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ATEX	4	3	6	7.50	4.27	22.2%	7.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.19
2026	22	ATEX	22	22	109	3.30	3.51	22.6%	5.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.55	4.55	18.2%	6.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTEX	6	6	36	4.57	4.52	19.6%	6.7%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTEX	9	9	52	4.48	4.43	20.4%	6.6%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsMatt Duffy (age 22) · Marcelo Perez (age 23) · Seth Shuman (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%18.2%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.19	—
2025	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.19	—
2025	21	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.27	—
2026	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	3.9%	3.30	4.66	—
2026	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	3.9%	3.30	4.66	—
2026	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	22.6%	5.5%	17.1%	3.0%	3.30	3.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	6.8%	11.4%	3.2%	4.55	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	85	357	70	24	11	100%	5.6	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.1%	4.44	4.39	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	79	334	68	22	10	100%	5.7	20.4%	6.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.30	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	78	331	69	22	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.6%	14.1%	3.1%	4.30	4.27	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	321	67	22	10	100%	5.9	20.8%	6.7%	14.0%	3.1%	4.30	4.31	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	72	306	63	21	10	100%	6.0	20.6%	6.9%	13.8%	3.2%	4.35	4.39	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	284	58	20	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.45	4.52	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	61	256	51	19	9	100%	6.1	20.1%	7.4%	12.6%	3.6%	4.60	4.70	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	54	228	45	18	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	3.8%	4.78	4.90	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	36	152	30	10	5	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.52	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	52	220	45	15	7	100%	5.8	20.4%	6.6%	13.8%	3.3%	4.48	4.43	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	54	17	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	6.6%	14.1%	3.3%	4.43	4.40	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	57	18	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	6.7%	14.0%	3.4%	4.43	4.44	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	65	274	57	19	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.48	4.52	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	53	18	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.7%	4.59	4.66	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	56	236	47	18	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	7.4%	12.6%	3.9%	4.75	4.85	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	50	211	41	16	9	100%	6.2	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	4.1%	4.94	5.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	447	1889	384	132	67	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.57	4.22	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	59	30	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.57	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		26	25	115	460	79	30	18	96%	4.4	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.9%	3.52	4.63	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	800	137	53	31	96%	4.4	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.9%	3.52	4.63	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 109 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.66 (+1.12)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.63%	—	×0.740	16.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.54%	—	×1.180	6.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 6 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.37 (+1.17)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.180	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.037	×1.300	4.64%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Siary (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	18.2%	6.8%	3.2%	—	4.32	20.2%	13.6%	242	-0.23	—	—	—
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	90
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	89
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	88
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	87
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	87
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	86
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	85
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	85
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	85
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.02	19.6%	13.9%	154	+0.11	3.84	262	85
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	85
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	84
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	72	20.1%	6.9%	1.27	4.44
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Bob Lacey ('77-'84, 2 WAR*)	2.3	75	20.5%*	7.3%*	1.35*	4.11*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28