Evan Siary — OGILVIE

Evan Siary P Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%21.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$43M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.19	—
2025	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.19	—
2025	21	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	4	3	6	27	6	2	1	75%	1.5	22.2%	7.4%	14.8%	3.7%	7.50	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	3.9%	3.30	4.66	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	16.7%	6.5%	10.2%	3.9%	3.30	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TEX	22	22	109	433	98	24	13	100%	5.0	22.6%	5.5%	17.1%	3.0%	3.30	3.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	111	467	102	34	14	100%	5.3	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.20	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	114	479	107	34	14	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	3.0%	4.17	4.12	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	115	485	110	34	14	100%	5.7	22.7%	7.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.11	4.07	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	115	485	111	34	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.05	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	113	478	109	34	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.0%	4.08	4.09	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	110	464	106	33	14	100%	6.1	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.1%	4.13	4.17	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	105	443	100	33	14	100%	6.2	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.2%	4.23	4.30	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	99	416	92	32	14	100%	6.2	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	3.4%	4.38	4.48	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	92	388	85	31	14	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.7%	4.56	4.68	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	85	359	77	31	14	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	3.9%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	54	228	50	17	7	100%	5.4	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.32	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	79	334	75	24	11	100%	5.6	22.4%	7.1%	15.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.24	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	93	393	89	28	12	100%	5.8	22.7%	7.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.23	4.19	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	97	30	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	3.2%	4.19	4.17	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	102	431	99	30	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.1%	15.8%	3.2%	4.20	4.21	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	101	426	97	31	14	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.30	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	98	414	93	31	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.5%	4.36	4.43	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	92	388	86	30	14	100%	6.1	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	3.7%	4.52	4.62	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	87	367	80	30	14	100%	6.2	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.9%	4.71	4.83	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	73	29	14	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	4.2%	4.93	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	151	889	3752	840	279	130	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	3.5%	4.40	4.05	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	63	29	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	3.5%	4.40	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		26	25	115	460	79	30	18	96%	4.4	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.9%	3.52	4.63	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	800	137	53	31	96%	4.4	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	3.9%	3.52	4.63	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Siary (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.0%	—	4.13	22.3%	15.2%	339	-0.21	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	88
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	86
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	81
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	80
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	80
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	78
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	78
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	78
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	78
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	77
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	98	22.3%	7.4%	1.23	4.26
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01