Andrés Machado
P
Washington Nationals
+0.6
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 232 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.68
FIP4.32
xFIP4.03
SIERA3.96
K%23.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.9%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p7996.6
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p130.356
CH+6.4
SL-1.0
FB-7.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 13 | 13 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 16 | 115 | 506 | 112 | 34 | 16 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 5.10 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 37 | 12 | 83 | 387 | 72 | 36 | 9 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 5.53 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 44 | 0 | 75 | 321 | 65 | 31 | 12 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 2.89 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 51 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.58 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 64 | 0 | 76 | 333 | 64 | 31 | 7 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 3.82 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 68 | 0 | 79 | 328 | 78 | 17 | 13 | 22.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.09 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 72 | 26 | 10 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 25 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 60 | 24 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 54 | 23 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 308 | 41 | 536 | 2356 | 439 | 190 | 75 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.29 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 15 | 200 | 879 | 164 | 71 | 28 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrés Machado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.64 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 190 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 86 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 83 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 81 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 77 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 77 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | .312 | 5.01 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.27 | 2.30 | 153 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 74 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.46 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 1.9% | .304 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 128 | +0.00 | 3.08 | 303 | 74 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 1,424 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.