Andrés Machado
P
Washington Nationals
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 232 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.47
FIP4.40
K%23.3%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.7%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7996.6
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p130.356
CH+6.4
SL-1.0
FB-7.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 13 | 13 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.02 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 13 | 13 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.6% | 5.4% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 3.99 | 2.74 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 16 | 115 | 506 | 112 | 34 | 16 | 52% | 3.7 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 5.0% | 5.10 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 16 | 115 | 506 | 112 | 34 | 16 | 52% | 3.7 | 22.1% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 3.85 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 12 | 83 | 387 | 72 | 36 | 9 | 32% | 2.2 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 5.53 | 4.42 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 12 | 83 | 387 | 72 | 36 | 9 | 32% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 5.53 | 4.08 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 44 | 0 | 75 | 321 | 65 | 31 | 12 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 2.89 | 5.04 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 44 | 0 | 75 | 321 | 65 | 31 | 12 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 2.89 | 4.69 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 76 | 333 | 64 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 76 | 333 | 64 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 79 | 328 | 78 | 17 | 13 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 5.3% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.04 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 79 | 328 | 78 | 17 | 13 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 5.2% | 18.6% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 3.91 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 66 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 50 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 55 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 0 | 256 | 1100 | 220 | 96 | 42 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 172 | 75 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 308 | 41 | 536 | 2356 | 439 | 190 | 80 | 13% | 1.7 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 15 | 200 | 879 | 164 | 71 | 30 | 13% | 1.7 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrés Machado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.86 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 116 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 79 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 79 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 74 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 73 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.01 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 186 | +0.49 | 2.78 | 326 | 72 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 1.38 | 4.64 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |