Andrés Machado — OGILVIE

Andrés Machado P Washington Nationals

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 232 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.47

FIP4.40

K%23.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

CH+6.4

SL-1.0

FB-7.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	23	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	13	59	260	64	14	5	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	2.7%	3.99	4.02	—
2016	23	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	13	59	260	64	14	5	100%	4.5	24.6%	5.4%	19.2%	1.9%	3.99	2.74	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	16	115	506	112	34	16	52%	3.7	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	4.1%	5.10	4.61	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	16	115	506	112	34	16	52%	3.7	22.1%	6.7%	15.4%	3.2%	5.10	3.85	+1.4
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	387	72	36	9	32%	2.2	15.5%	10.0%	5.5%	2.6%	5.53	4.47	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	12	83	387	72	36	9	32%	2.2	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.3%	5.53	4.08	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	0	75	321	65	31	12	0%	1.7	17.8%	10.1%	7.7%	4.0%	2.89	5.09	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	0	75	321	65	31	12	0%	1.7	20.2%	9.7%	10.6%	3.7%	2.89	4.69	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	50	221	49	18	5	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.2%	12.9%	2.3%	3.58	3.63	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	50	221	49	18	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.1%	14.0%	2.3%	3.58	3.52	+0.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	76	333	64	31	7	0%	1.2	18.6%	9.4%	9.2%	2.1%	3.89	3.87	+0.6
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	76	333	64	31	7	0%	1.2	19.2%	9.3%	9.9%	2.1%	3.89	3.83	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	4.0%	4.81	4.06	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%	4.0%	4.81	4.06	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	79	328	78	17	13	0%	1.2	23.8%	5.2%	18.6%	4.0%	4.81	3.91	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			137	0	149	646	120	54	25	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	3.9%	4.48	4.76	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	WSH	58	0	61	257	57	23	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.6%	4.61	4.70	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	231	49	22	9	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.9%	4.87	5.04	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	WSH	55	0	58	245	55	22	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.6%	4.61	4.70	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	WSH	48	0	50	211	45	20	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.9%	4.87	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		240	0	256	1100	219	96	42	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.62	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	859	171	75	33	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		308	41	536	2356	437	189	76	13%	1.7	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	15	200	879	163	70	28	13%	1.7	18.6%	8.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrés Machado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.2%	8.5%	3.3%	—	4.86	21.9%	12.6%	116	+0.46	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	80
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	79
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	78
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	77
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	76
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	76
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	74
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	74
Mark Lowe R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	33	SU	5.40	21.9%	8.5%	5.6%	.312	5.03	16.4%	6.4%	49	-0.37	2.37	153	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	73
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	72
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	22.4%	9.0%	1.38	4.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43