Matthew Etzel

LF Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 25 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/A+2 orgs484.272/.350/.430114573—.226/.281/.350
202523AAA/AAMIA372.246/.364/.36272769—.215/.296/.315
202624AAAMIA503.241/.345/.428192572—.200/.279/.337
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBMIA21.214/.291/.33401830.0
2028PROJ35% MLB26MLBMIA88.215/.292/.3362484-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB27MLBMIA124.215/.292/.3363584-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV87
Speed78
BB%74
Z-Con%55
Whiff%51
Chase%49
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%
CompsTravis Swaggerty (age 25) · Elijah Dunham (age 26) · Michael Gigliotti (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .291 / .334
PA21
HR0
K%29
BB%10
BABIP288
ISO53
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 1915 4200 430 30 267421400821 133333 1621 377 80 — — — — — —
202321 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 9170 22412 14174 163 314449486935 171377 1915 409 111 — — — — — —
202422 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 270240 59647 25722 146 246322392714 146317 279 317 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 214186 571244 22422 316 306386478864 172368 2010 376 85 — — — — — —
202523 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 121102 28302 16290 92 275370363732 88356 2413 331 72 — — — — — —
202523 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 251207 48825 42640 187 232361362724 130307 2517 331 68 — — — — — —
202624 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503432 10420219 671242 257 241345428774 188292 2513 345 72 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 1916 4200 340 30 250368375743 125280 2116 286 80 — — — — — —
202321 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 9176 20312 9234 163 263371408779 145320 2510 332 111 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 270248 53636 17882 146 214270335604 121289 336 262 63 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 214195 471033 13552 316 241295369664 128303 266 294 85 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 121108 26302 11360 92 241311324635 83315 309 275 72 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 251222 45824 27790 187 203289311600 108283 3111 268 68 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503451 9016214 481492 257 200279337616 137262 3010 274 72 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 11092 24512 12274 193 261370402773 141338 2511 324 105 — — — — — —
202321 A RAW2 teams — 11085 26612 18204 193 306444471915 165369 1816 403 105 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 484443 991569 301434 4512 223279345624 122302 306 276 73 — — — — — —
202422 AA RAW2 teams — 484426 11618811 471144 4512 272350430780 157341 2410 343 73 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 372330 691025 381140 279 209291297588 88298 3110 270 69 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAW2 teams — 372309 761127 58930 279 246364362727 117324 2516 331 69 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503451 9016214 481492 257 200279337616 137262 3010 274 72 — — — — — —
202624 AAA RAWJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503432 10420219 671242 257 241345428774 188292 2513 345 72 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 11093 24512 12274 193 258370398768 140313 2511 324 105 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 484447 991569 301434 4512 221279342621 121295 306 276 73 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 372331 691025 381140 279 208291296587 88293 3110 270 69 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503448 9016214 481492 257 201279339619 138262 3010 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 484447 991569 301434 4512 221279342621 121295 306 276 73 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLE2 teams — 372331 691025 381140 279 208291296587 88293 3110 270 69 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 503448 9016214 481492 257 201279339619 138262 3010 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEMIA 10% 380341 751329 351111 165 222297349646 128298 299 291 83 -8 +1 +0 -4 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXMIA 10% 2119 4100 260 10 214291334625 120288 2910 282 83 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEMIA 35% 254227 50916 24731 113 222298352650 129297 299 292 84 -5 +1 +0 -3 +6 -0.1
202927 MLB MLEMIA 44% 281252 561017 26801 124 222298352650 129296 289 292 84 -5 +1 +0 -3 +6 -0.2
203028 MLB MLEMIA 49% 297267 581017 27851 114 222297349646 128294 299 291 83 -6 +1 -1 -3 +6 -0.3
203129 MLB MLEMIA 50% 296266 581017 27841 103 220295345640 125292 289 289 81 -7 +1 -1 -3 +6 -0.4
202826 MLB CTXMIA 35% 8880 17302 8250 41 215292336628 121287 289 284 84 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.0
202927 MLB CTXMIA 44% 124111 25413 11351 52 215292336628 121286 289 284 84 -2 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
203028 MLB CTXMIA 49% 145130 28513 13411 52 214291334625 120285 289 282 83 -3 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.2
203129 MLB CTXMIA 50% 148132 29513 14421 52 213289330619 118283 289 280 81 -3 +0 -1 -2 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 505453 9917311 461433 197 219295342637 124291 289 282 78 -10 +1 -1 -5 +11 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650583 12822414 591844 249 220296343639 123293 289 282 78 -13 +1 -1 -7 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 28072516 545921662 25181615 16948 217292340631 123291 299 284 78 -27 +4 -2 -14 +29 -1.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 12621414 581893 3911 216290338628 122291 299 284 78 -13 +2 -1 -7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 503 PAwOBA .338 → .274 (−64)K% 24.7% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.65%÷1.000×1.200——29.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.32%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0489.63%
HBP% /PA0.40%—×0.940—×1.0480.39%
Singles /BIP20.45%÷1.000×0.930×0.961×1.04819.15%
Doubles /BIP6.49%÷1.000×0.830×0.961×1.0485.43%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.000×0.970×0.961×1.0480.63%
Home runs /BIP6.17%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0484.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .338 → .274; ISO .188 → .143; BABIP .292 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 251 PAwOBA .323 → .268 (−55)K% 25.5% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.50%÷0.995×1.220——31.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.94%÷1.045×0.680—×1.02710.65%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷1.017×0.920×0.990×1.02721.22%
Doubles /BIP5.59%÷0.955×0.910×0.990×1.0275.42%
Triples /BIP1.40%÷0.941×0.880×0.990×1.0271.33%
Home runs /BIP3.50%÷1.103×0.800—×1.0272.61%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .323 → .268; ISO .130 → .112; BABIP .307 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 121 PAwOBA .328 → .275 (−53)K% 24.0% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.97%÷0.978×1.200——29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.22%÷1.027×0.690—×1.0509.33%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP31.51%÷1.051×0.930×0.966×1.05028.28%
Doubles /BIP4.11%÷1.023×0.830×0.966×1.0503.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.966×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.74%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0502.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .328 → .275; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .356 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 270 PAwOBA .311 → .262 (−49)K% 26.7% → 32.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷0.999×1.220——32.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.89%÷1.022×0.680—×1.0426.16%
HBP% /PA0.74%—×0.840—×1.0420.65%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.008×0.920×0.970×1.04223.07%
Doubles /BIP3.57%÷0.972×0.910×0.970×1.0423.38%
Triples /BIP2.38%÷1.115×0.880×0.970×1.0421.90%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷0.958×0.800—×1.0423.63%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .311 → .262; ISO .146 → .123; BABIP .317 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 214 PAwOBA .372 → .294 (−78)K% 19.6% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.63%÷0.993×1.310——25.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.81%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0126.29%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.770—×1.0120.73%
Singles /BIP25.69%÷1.048×0.870×1.001×1.01221.61%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.980×0.780×1.001×1.0126.72%
Triples /BIP2.78%÷1.150×0.850×1.001×1.0122.08%
Home runs /BIP2.78%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0122.41%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .372 → .294; ISO .172 → .140; BABIP .368 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 91 PAwOBA .408 → .332 (−76)K% 18.7% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.68%÷1.008×1.360——25.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷1.065×0.690—×1.01510.12%
HBP% /PA4.40%—×0.780—×1.0153.48%
Singles /BIP28.30%÷1.020×0.920×0.959×1.01524.84%
Doubles /BIP7.55%÷1.101×0.830×0.959×1.0155.54%
Triples /BIP1.89%÷0.940×0.910×0.959×1.0151.78%
Home runs /BIP3.77%÷1.020×0.800—×1.0153.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .408 → .332; ISO .171 → .144; BABIP .377 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 19 PAwOBA .369 → .286 (−83)K% 15.8% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷0.986×1.310——20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.05%÷0.982×0.600—×1.02713.21%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.037×0.870—×1.02714.36%
Doubles /BIP16.67%÷0.980×0.780—×1.02713.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.912×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .369 → .286; ISO .133 → .114; BABIP .333 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).