Matthew Etzel — OGILVIE

Matthew EtzelLF Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION483 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP265

ISO117

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	15	4	2	0	0	4	3	0	3	0	267	421	400	821	133	333	16	21	377	141	+1	+1	—	—	+0	0.2
2023	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	22	4	1	2	14	17	4	16	3	314	449	486	935	171	377	19	15	409	163	+7	+2	—	—	+2	1.1
2024	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	270	240	59	6	4	7	25	72	2	14	6	246	322	392	714	146	317	27	9	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+6	0.7
2024	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	214	186	57	12	4	4	22	42	2	31	6	306	386	478	864	172	368	20	10	376	141	+10	+4	—	—	+5	1.9
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	121	102	28	3	0	2	16	29	0	9	2	275	370	363	732	88	356	24	13	331	110	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	251	207	48	8	2	5	42	64	0	18	7	232	361	362	724	130	307	25	17	331	110	+3	+1	—	—	+5	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	16	4	2	0	0	3	4	0	3	0	250	368	375	743	125	287	21	16	293	84	-0	+1	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	77	20	3	1	2	8	24	4	16	3	260	360	403	762	143	319	26	9	328	108	+1	+2	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	270	249	51	5	3	6	16	88	2	14	6	205	258	321	580	116	281	33	6	254	58	-13	+0	—	—	+6	-0.7
2024	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	214	193	48	10	3	3	15	57	2	31	6	249	310	378	688	130	316	27	7	301	90	-3	+4	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	121	108	24	2	0	2	11	36	0	9	2	222	294	296	590	74	300	30	9	263	64	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	251	223	44	7	2	4	26	79	0	18	7	197	281	300	582	103	278	31	10	263	64	-11	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	110	93	24	5	1	2	11	28	4	19	3	258	361	398	759	140	338	25	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	110	85	26	6	1	2	18	20	4	19	3	306	444	471	915	165	369	18	16	403	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	484	442	99	15	6	9	31	145	4	45	12	224	281	346	627	122	305	30	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	484	426	116	18	8	11	47	114	4	45	12	272	350	430	780	157	341	24	10	343	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	68	10	2	5	37	114	0	27	9	205	285	293	578	88	292	31	10	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	372	309	76	11	2	7	58	93	0	27	9	246	364	362	727	117	324	25	16	331	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	110	94	24	5	1	2	11	28	4	19	3	255	361	394	755	138	313	25	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	484	446	99	15	6	9	31	145	4	45	12	222	281	343	624	121	296	30	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	332	68	10	2	5	37	114	0	27	9	205	285	292	577	87	285	31	10	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	110	94	24	5	1	2	11	28	4	19	3	255	361	394	755	138	313	25	10	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	484	446	99	15	6	9	31	145	4	45	12	222	281	343	624	121	296	30	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	332	68	10	2	5	37	114	0	27	9	205	285	292	577	87	285	31	10	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	MIA	—	483	436	86	15	2	13	43	143	2	22	7	197	272	330	603	133	259	30	9	265	65	-20	+2	+0	-5	+10	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA RAW	MIA	—	483	417	103	19	2	19	62	119	2	22	7	247	347	439	786	192	299	25	13	350	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AAA MLE	MIA	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		272	33	11	275	72	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIA	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						265	0	0	265	72	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIA	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	265	66	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AAA MLE	MIA	—	492	444	87	15	2	13	44	146	2	22	7	196	271	327	598	131	258	30	9	265	66	-20	+2	+0	-5	+11	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	370	332	70	12	2	9	33	105	2	15	5	211	286	340	626	130	274	28	9	282	77	-10	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	46%	407	366	79	14	2	11	36	114	2	17	5	216	290	355	645	139	275	28	9	286	80	-10	+1	+0	-4	+9	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	129	116	24	4	1	3	11	37	1	5	2	207	281	336	617	129	266	29	9	271	77	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	46%	189	169	36	6	1	5	17	53	1	8	2	213	289	349	638	136	268	28	9	275	80	-5	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	319	286	60	10	2	8	28	90	2	13	4	210	285	343	627	133	274	28	9	273	75	-8	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	122	20	4	16	57	183	4	26	8	209	284	340	624	130	273	28	9	273	75	-16	+2	+0	-7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1752	1572	341	56	13	36	149	509	12	123	34	217	290	338	627	121	292	29	9	279	75	-20	+2	+0	-8	+17	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	127	21	5	13	55	189	4	46	13	218	289	338	627	120	295	29	8	279	75	-17	+2	+0	-7	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	349	9	15	213	284	347	-4	-1	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	17	28	-7.1	-1.9	-0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Etzel (OGILVIE)	24	40	40	60	60	204/277/327	124	272	8	15	29%	9%	72	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	43→42	48→50	58→60	47	219/291/369	150	281	15	28	27%	8%	86	+0.3	206/275/345	139	286	14	25	31%	8%	75	-0.5	190/261/322	133	270	13	24	33%	8%	62	-0.9
✕Travis Swaggerty 2023 · AAA	25	44	43→45	58→55	44	214/279/332	117	299	10	20	30%	8%	72	-0.7	212/276/323	111	311	9	17	32%	7%	70	-0.9	187/262/247	59	316	0	9	37%	8%	46	-0.4
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	62→60	44	204/273/323	120	275	11	36	29%	8%	69	-0.9	216/278/333	117	291	12	34	28%	7%	73	-0.6	217/280/331	115	292	12	35	28%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB	24	42→45	42→40	59→60	47	207/274/314	107	265	10	32	25%	8%	68	-1.0	204/276/296	92	278	8	28	27%	8%	63	-1.3	193/269/273	81	270	7	30	29%	9%	55	-1.4
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA	24	47→48	41→45	57→65	42	225/286/329	105	302	8	27	27%	6%	75	-0.5	218/271/318	100	303	7	24	29%	6%	66	-1.1	223/290/349	126	282	12	55	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Kameron Misner 2022 · AA	24	42→43	43→50	55	42	201/275/318	118	315	10	19	37%	8%	69	-0.9	199/288/334	135	319	14	23	38%	11%	78	-0.3	189/285/327	138	300	14	26	38%	11%	72	-0.6
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	43→42	42→50	65→70	46	209/270/321	112	273	8	36	26%	8%	67	-1.1	209/277/330	121	275	12	50	27%	8%	72	-0.7	226/287/352	126	279	13	56	23%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Estevan Florial 2023 · MLB	25	43→53	47→50	55→60	41	210/275/347	137	314	14	30	36%	8%	75	-0.5	213/283/367	154	319	17	28	36%	8%	83	+0.1	202/278/363	161	298	19	30	36%	9%	79	-0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Khalil Lee 2021 · AA	23	46→51	41→45	57→55	42	212/286/309	96	325	8	30	35%	8%	70	-0.8	205/307/330	125	338	11	15	38%	9%	84	+0.2	190/304/318	128	331	11	13	40%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Juan Silva 2016 · AAA	25	47→46	39→45	55	52	223/299/316	93	287	6	23	23%	10%	77	-0.3	218/290/310	92	282	6	14	23%	8%	72	-0.7	199/267/262	63	272	3	6	26%	8%	52	-0.5
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	194/257/310	116	274	9	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	221/275/344	123	302	11	17	29%	5%	74	-0.5	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	45→40	55→50	46	202/283/328	125	257	12	15	26%	8%	75	-0.5	216/303/308	92	269	8	14	21%	9%	78	-0.3	215/312/285	70	264	6	15	19%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Lane Adams 2014 · AA	24	45→46	43→45	55→60	41	220/271/332	112	293	11	19	28%	6%	70	-0.9	226/280/341	115	296	11	28	26%	6%	75	-0.5	227/280/350	123	310	14	36	30%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	50→52	42→45	58→60	45	242/297/353	111	305	8	27	23%	7%	84	+0.1	242/306/342	100	326	6	31	25%	8%	84	+0.2	242/313/336	94	331	6	39	26%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Bradley Zimmer 2017 · AAA	24	46→51	46→50	57→60	43	220/296/353	134	329	13	29	35%	8%	85	+0.2	230/294/365	135	343	13	26	34%	7%	86	+0.3	229/307/355	126	348	13	28	35%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Drew Avans 2021 · AA	25	45→53	45	54→60	41	222/277/344	121	307	13	20	31%	6%	74	-0.5	229/300/341	112	326	8	28	30%	9%	82	+0.0	220/298/327	106	313	7	30	29%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	40	51→50	49	206/287/303	97	281	7	18	28%	9%	70	-0.9	201/263/300	99	311	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Clete Thomas 2010 · MLB	26	49→52	43→45	55	48	236/305/356	120	312	9	22	26%	9%	88	+0.5	213/273/339	126	308	12	23	33%	7%	72	-0.7	203/260/321	118	276	11	14	29%	7%	61	-1.0
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→50	48→50	55	46	234/298/377	143	301	16	24	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/293/350	124	292	12	15	25%	8%	82	+0.0	225/293/333	108	284	10	17	23%	8%	76	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps