Matthew Etzel — OGILVIE

Matthew EtzelLF Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 211 lbs AAA HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION313 act + 208 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .281 / .330

PA208

HR5

SB10

K%30

BB%9

BABIP282

ISO123

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	110	93	23	5	1	2	11	28	4	19	3	247	352	387	739	140	323	25	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	110	85	26	6	1	2	18	20	4	19	3	306	444	471	915	165	369	18	16	403	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	484	442	97	15	6	10	31	150	4	45	12	219	277	348	625	129	301	31	6	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	484	426	116	18	8	11	47	114	4	45	12	272	350	430	780	157	341	24	10	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	2 teams	—	372	332	67	10	2	6	36	120	0	27	9	202	280	298	578	96	290	32	10	259	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	2 teams	—	372	309	76	11	2	7	58	93	0	27	9	246	364	362	727	117	324	25	16	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	MIA	—	313	281	57	8	2	9	29	95	2	14	6	203	282	342	624	139	270	30	9	275	69	-11	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.5
YTD	24	AAA	MIA	—	313	268	66	10	2	11	42	79	2	14	6	246	353	422	774	175	307	25	13	347	124	+8	+0	+0	-3	+9	1.5
ROS	24	AAA	MIA	10%	208	187	39	6	1	5	18	63	1	10	4	208	281	330	611	123	281	30	9	278	71	-7	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	10%	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	211	286	263	549	53	277	29	10	271	65	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
FULL	24	AAA	MIA	—	334	300	61	9	2	9	31	101	2	15	6	203	282	337	619	133	272	30	9	275	68	-12	+1	+0	-4	+9	-0.6
TOT	24	AAA	MIA	—	521	468	96	14	3	14	47	158	3	24	10	205	281	337	619	132	275	30	9	276	70	-18	+1	+0	-6	+15	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIA	35%	370	332	70	11	2	9	33	108	2	16	6	211	286	337	623	127	283	29	9	285	77	-10	+1	+0	-4	+10	-0.2
2028	26	MLB	MIA	46%	407	365	78	12	2	11	37	117	2	17	6	214	290	348	638	134	283	29	9	289	80	-9	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.1
2029	27	MLB	MIA	50%	420	376	81	13	2	11	38	120	3	18	7	215	293	348	641	133	284	29	9	291	81	-9	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.1
2027	25	MLB	MIA	35%	129	115	25	4	1	3	12	38	1	6	2	217	297	348	645	130	278	29	9	277	70	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2028	26	MLB	MIA	46%	189	169	36	6	1	5	17	54	1	8	3	213	289	349	638	136	279	29	9	281	73	-6	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.2
2029	27	MLB	MIA	50%	210	188	39	6	1	5	19	60	1	9	3	207	284	330	613	122	279	29	9	282	74	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	549	491	104	17	3	13	50	158	3	24	8	212	289	338	627	126	282	29	9	280	73	-17	+2	+0	-6	+16	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	20	4	15	59	187	4	28	9	212	289	337	626	126	282	29	9	280	73	-20	+2	+0	-7	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	2371	2127	455	72	16	54	204	706	16	152	47	214	288	339	626	125	289	30	9	281	73	-72	+12	+0	-25	+67	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	125	20	4	15	56	193	4	42	13	214	287	340	627	125	289	30	9	281	73	-20	+3	+0	-7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	15	4	2	0	0	4	3	0	3	0	267	421	400	821	133	333	16	21	377	147	+1	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	22	4	1	2	14	17	4	16	3	314	449	486	935	171	377	19	15	409	171	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.2
2024	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	270	240	59	6	4	7	25	72	2	14	6	246	322	392	714	146	317	27	9	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+8	0.9
2024	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	214	186	57	12	4	4	22	42	2	31	6	306	386	478	864	172	368	20	10	376	146	+11	+4	—	—	+6	2.1
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	121	102	28	3	0	2	16	29	0	9	2	275	370	363	732	88	356	24	13	331	111	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	251	207	48	8	2	5	42	64	0	18	7	232	361	362	724	130	307	25	17	331	111	+3	+1	—	—	+7	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	560	15	24	217	289	352	-6	-1	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	17	29	217	289	352	-7.1	-1.2	-0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Etzel (OGILVIE)	24	40	40	60	60	205/281/337	132	275	14	24	30%	9%	70	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→42	45	62→60	44	206/273/330	124	274	12	36	29%	8%	67	-0.5	214/277/336	122	294	13	34	30%	7%	70	-0.3	214/278/335	120	296	13	35	31%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB	24	41→44	43→45	60	46	205/272/319	114	263	11	32	26%	8%	63	-0.8	204/276/304	100	278	9	28	28%	8%	61	-1.0	193/270/284	91	271	9	30	30%	9%	52	-1.1
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA	24	46→45	43→50	57→65	42	221/284/333	112	302	10	27	29%	6%	72	-0.2	215/268/322	107	303	8	24	30%	5%	62	-0.9	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Travis Swaggerty 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	45	58→55	43	210/270/336	126	291	11	20	31%	8%	66	-0.6	209/269/323	114	308	9	17	33%	7%	63	-0.9	188/264/249	61	327	0	9	38%	8%	40	-0.4
✕Kameron Misner 2022 · AA	24	42→43	43→50	55	42	199/272/316	117	310	10	19	36%	8%	63	-0.8	200/289/343	143	318	15	23	38%	11%	78	+0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	42→41	42→50	65→70	46	207/269/319	112	274	8	36	27%	8%	62	-0.9	208/276/333	125	274	13	50	28%	8%	69	-0.4	220/282/351	131	271	15	58	24%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	48→51	43→45	58→60	44	235/288/354	119	298	9	27	24%	6%	79	+0.3	239/301/343	104	323	7	31	26%	8%	81	+0.4	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	43→42	49→50	58→60	47	220/294/377	156	286	16	28	28%	8%	88	+0.9	208/278/359	151	291	16	25	32%	8%	76	+0.1	191/261/336	146	274	15	24	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Juan Silva 2016 · AAA	25	47→46	39→45	55	51	221/296/313	92	288	5	23	24%	9%	72	-0.2	220/289/315	95	287	7	14	24%	8%	69	-0.4	200/265/266	66	279	4	6	28%	8%	46	-0.5
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2022 · AAA	26	45	46→45	55→65	43	216/291/340	124	330	15	25	36%	9%	77	+0.1	221/296/343	122	326	14	24	34%	9%	80	+0.4	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2023 · AAA	24	49	42→45	54→55	47	227/299/343	116	329	8	17	32%	9%	81	+0.4	214/280/331	117	321	10	19	33%	8%	69	-0.4	203/271/316	113	305	10	21	34%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Khalil Lee 2021 · AA	23	43→52	42→45	57→55	41	203/277/308	105	321	10	30	37%	8%	63	-0.9	205/307/339	134	347	12	15	40%	9%	85	+0.7	193/306/332	139	346	12	13	42%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	46→44	46→50	53→50	49	225/309/354	130	297	14	18	28%	9%	89	+0.9	206/283/353	147	268	17	12	28%	9%	78	+0.2	182/260/332	150	231	18	10	29%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2012 · AA	24	42→52	43→55	59→60	41	202/269/316	113	307	10	34	36%	8%	61	-1.0	217/263/331	114	313	12	31	33%	5%	63	-0.9	237/298/404	167	340	15	21	33%	7%	90	+0.6
✕Lane Adams 2015 · AA	25	45→46	44→50	56→60	42	223/276/340	117	289	11	27	26%	6%	70	-0.3	228/280/358	130	308	14	31	29%	6%	76	+0.1	228/279/363	136	311	16	36	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	59→60	44	212/288/308	96	283	8	32	26%	7%	68	-0.5	223/314/344	121	303	12	25	28%	9%	89	+0.9	220/317/335	116	299	12	22	28%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Tyler Saladino 2013 · AAA	24	44→47	42→45	54→55	47	215/290/326	112	285	9	19	27%	8%	73	-0.1	223/284/319	96	286	8	23	24%	7%	68	-0.5	256/300/368	112	305	11	25	19%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Tito Polo 2019 · AA	24	46→50	43→45	58→60	40	224/279/336	112	299	10	29	28%	5%	70	-0.3	217/266/319	102	288	8	20	26%	5%	59	-1.1	203/230/287	84	267	3	25	25%	2%	32	-0.6
✕Bradley Zimmer 2017 · AAA	24	45→51	48→50	57→60	42	218/296/359	142	329	15	29	36%	8%	85	+0.7	230/294/368	138	344	14	26	35%	7%	85	+0.7	231/308/356	126	350	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.4