Matthew EtzelLF
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 24
L/R
6'2" / 211 lbs
AAA
HR -4%BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†43
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .281 / .326
PA320
HR7
SB9
K%32
BB%9
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
40→40
PWR
40→40
SPD
60→60
EYE
48↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.4peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-7M | $-17M | -$10M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | 2 teams | 110 | 93 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 3 | .258 | .361 | .398 | .759 | .140 | .338 | 25 | 10 | .321 | 103 | +0 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | 2 teams | 484 | 444 | 96 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 149 | 4 | 45 | 12 | .216 | .270 | .340 | .611 | .124 | .295 | 31 | 6 | .267 | 62 | -21 | +4 | +0 | -5 | +14 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | 2 teams | 372 | 331 | 67 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 119 | 0 | 27 | 9 | .202 | .283 | .299 | .582 | .097 | .290 | 32 | 10 | .264 | 60 | -17 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +11 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 64 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .133 | .188 | .150 | .338 | .017 | .195 | 30 | 5 | .156 | -22 | -9 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 256 | 231 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 80 | 2 | 9 | 3 | .199 | .272 | .303 | .575 | .104 | .279 | 31 | 8 | .262 | 59 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.7 |
| TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | 320 | 291 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 99 | 3 | 9 | 4 | .186 | .255 | .271 | .526 | .086 | .261 | 31 | 8 | .241 | 43 | -21 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 25% | MIA | 367 | 330 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 97 | 2 | 12 | 5 | .209 | .283 | .327 | .610 | .118 | .270 | 26 | 9 | .276 | 70 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 43% | MIA | 405 | 363 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 106 | 3 | 13 | 5 | .209 | .286 | .328 | .614 | .118 | .272 | 26 | 9 | .281 | 74 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 58% | MIA | 419 | 375 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 110 | 3 | 12 | 4 | .211 | .288 | .328 | .616 | .117 | .273 | 26 | 9 | .284 | 75 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +12 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 68% | MIA | 424 | 379 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 111 | 3 | 11 | 4 | .211 | .290 | .327 | .617 | .116 | .273 | 26 | 9 | .284 | 75 | -12 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 77% | MIA | 419 | 374 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 111 | 3 | 10 | 4 | .211 | .291 | .329 | .620 | .118 | .272 | 26 | 9 | .281 | 74 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +12 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 84% | MIA | 414 | 370 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 111 | 3 | 10 | 3 | .211 | .290 | .330 | .619 | .119 | .271 | 27 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +12 | -0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB 91% | MIA | 401 | 358 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 109 | 3 | 8 | 3 | .207 | .286 | .318 | .605 | .112 | .269 | 27 | 9 | .275 | 68 | -14 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +11 | -1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 384 | 344 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 107 | 2 | 7 | 2 | .201 | .278 | .305 | .583 | .105 | .268 | 28 | 9 | .270 | 65 | -15 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +11 | -1.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 355 | 318 | 64 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 2 | .201 | .278 | .311 | .590 | .110 | .266 | 28 | 9 | .265 | 61 | -16 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +10 | -1.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 311 | 278 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .191 | .269 | .281 | .550 | .090 | .264 | 29 | 9 | .259 | 56 | -15 | +0 | -5 | -3 | +9 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5121 | 4588 | 954 | 153 | 28 | 103 | 452 | 1430 | 36 | 194 | 61 | .208 | .284 | .321 | .605 | .113 | .275 | 28 | 9 | .274 | 68 | -184 | +14 | -20 | -55 | +145 | -10.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 582 | 121 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 182 | 5 | 25 | 8 | .208 | .284 | .321 | .605 | .113 | .276 | 28 | 9 | .274 | 68 | -23 | +2 | -2 | -7 | +18 | -1.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 19 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .267 | .421 | .400 | .821 | .133 | .333 | 16 | 21 | .377 | 147 | +1 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 91 | 70 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 3 | .314 | .449 | .486 | .935 | .171 | .377 | 19 | 15 | .409 | 171 | +7 | +2 | — | — | +3 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 270 | 240 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 72 | 2 | 14 | 6 | .246 | .322 | .392 | .714 | .146 | .317 | 27 | 9 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 214 | 186 | 57 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 42 | 2 | 31 | 6 | .306 | .386 | .478 | .864 | .172 | .368 | 20 | 10 | .376 | 146 | +11 | +4 | — | — | +6 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 121 | 102 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 9 | 2 | .275 | .370 | .363 | .732 | .088 | .356 | 24 | 13 | .331 | 111 | +2 | +1 | — | — | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 251 | 207 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 64 | 0 | 18 | 7 | .232 | .361 | .362 | .724 | .130 | .307 | 25 | 17 | .331 | 111 | +3 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 1.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Matthew Etzel (OGILVIE) | 24 | 40 | 40 | 60 | 60 | .208/.281/.326 | .118 | .293 | 7 | 13 | 32% | 9% | 70 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Kameron Misner 2022 · AA |
24 | 43→42 | 43→50 | 55 | 43 | .203/.278/.320 | .117 | .313 | 10 | 19 | 36% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .200/.289/.347 | .147 | .322 | 15 | 23 | 39% | 10% | 79 | +0.3 | .192/.287/.345 | .153 | .303 | 17 | 26 | 39% | 11% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB |
24 | 41→44 | 44→45 | 59→60 | 46 | .206/.273/.319 | .114 | .266 | 11 | 32 | 26% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .205/.276/.305 | .100 | .278 | 9 | 28 | 28% | 8% | 62 | -0.9 | .195/.271/.283 | .088 | .272 | 8 | 30 | 29% | 9% | 52 | -1.2 |
|
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA |
25 | 41→42 | 45 | 62→60 | 45 | .206/.275/.333 | .127 | .274 | 13 | 35 | 29% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .213/.276/.339 | .126 | .288 | 13 | 35 | 29% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .215/.278/.338 | .123 | .290 | 14 | 35 | 30% | 7% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Travis Swaggerty 2023 · AAA |
25 | 45 | 45 | 58→55 | 44 | .219/.282/.346 | .127 | .301 | 12 | 20 | 30% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .213/.275/.330 | .117 | .310 | 10 | 17 | 32% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .185/.261/.243 | .058 | .321 | 0 | 9 | 38% | 8% | 38 | -0.4 |
|
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA |
24 | 43→41 | 43→50 | 64→70 | 45 | .209/.271/.325 | .116 | .275 | 9 | 35 | 26% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .210/.278/.335 | .125 | .278 | 13 | 49 | 28% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .208/.280/.353 | .146 | .256 | 18 | 61 | 26% | 9% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA |
25 | 44→43 | 49→50 | 57→60 | 47 | .222/.295/.378 | .156 | .287 | 17 | 27 | 28% | 8% | 89 | +0.9 | .208/.279/.355 | .147 | .290 | 16 | 25 | 32% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .194/.266/.339 | .145 | .275 | 16 | 26 | 34% | 8% | 63 | -0.7 |
|
✕Drew Avans 2021 · AA |
25 | 45→53 | 46→45 | 54→60 | 42 | .222/.279/.347 | .126 | .302 | 13 | 20 | 30% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.296/.338 | .113 | .325 | 8 | 28 | 30% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .218/.296/.324 | .106 | .311 | 8 | 30 | 30% | 9% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2022 · AAA |
26 | 43 | 45 | 55→60 | 41 | .205/.276/.321 | .115 | .320 | 13 | 25 | 38% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .220/.296/.341 | .121 | .326 | 14 | 24 | 34% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .216/.284/.321 | .105 | .297 | 11 | 48 | 29% | 8% | 65 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA |
24 | 46 | 42→50 | 56→65 | 42 | .223/.286/.326 | .103 | .303 | 9 | 27 | 28% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .218/.273/.320 | .102 | .304 | 8 | 24 | 29% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .224/.292/.359 | .135 | .282 | 14 | 55 | 25% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕John Rave 2023 · AAA |
25 | 43 | 49→50 | 54→50 | 43 | .216/.286/.357 | .142 | .309 | 18 | 17 | 35% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .217/.284/.358 | .141 | .299 | 15 | 15 | 31% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .214/.283/.361 | .147 | .282 | 16 | 17 | 29% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Khalil Lee 2021 · AA |
23 | 44→52 | 41→45 | 57→55 | 42 | .207/.282/.306 | .099 | .324 | 9 | 28 | 36% | 8% | 65 | -0.7 | .207/.309/.341 | .134 | .340 | 12 | 16 | 39% | 9% | 86 | +0.8 | .194/.308/.336 | .141 | .334 | 13 | 13 | 40% | 10% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕River Town 2023 · A |
24 | 41→38 | 45→40 | 55→50 | 46 | .206/.287/.332 | .126 | .261 | 12 | 15 | 25% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.304/.312 | .095 | .269 | 8 | 15 | 21% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .215/.313/.285 | .071 | .263 | 6 | 15 | 19% | 10% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2023 · AA |
24 | 38 | 42→45 | 55 | 53 | .177/.298/.290 | .113 | .287 | 9 | 22 | 37% | 13% | 69 | -0.4 | .198/.307/.300 | .102 | .308 | 8 | 21 | 34% | 11% | 75 | -0.0 | .196/.302/.282 | .086 | .311 | 7 | 27 | 35% | 11% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA |
23 | 38→43 | 48→50 | 57→55 | 45 | .200/.272/.345 | .145 | .264 | 16 | 19 | 30% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .213/.284/.353 | .140 | .278 | 16 | 18 | 28% | 8% | 78 | +0.2 | .213/.283/.350 | .137 | .276 | 16 | 17 | 28% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2023 · AAA |
24 | 50→47 | 42→45 | 54→55 | 48 | .231/.306/.345 | .114 | .335 | 8 | 17 | 31% | 10% | 84 | +0.6 | .220/.287/.341 | .121 | .326 | 10 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .208/.277/.326 | .118 | .309 | 10 | 21 | 34% | 9% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Juan Silva 2016 · AAA |
25 | 47 | 40→45 | 55 | 51 | .224/.301/.320 | .096 | .290 | 6 | 24 | 24% | 10% | 76 | +0.0 | .218/.290/.309 | .091 | .285 | 6 | 15 | 24% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 | .198/.269/.262 | .063 | .277 | 4 | 6 | 28% | 8% | 46 | -0.5 |
|
✕Clay Fuller 2011 · AA |
24 | 42→46 | 43→45 | 54→55 | 44 | .207/.282/.319 | .112 | .290 | 10 | 19 | 31% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .216/.268/.334 | .118 | .294 | 13 | 15 | 30% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.255/.332 | .117 | .280 | 16 | 15 | 29% | 5% | 56 | -0.7 |
|
✕Ronnie Dawson 2019 · AA |
24 | 45→48 | 45 | 50→55 | 41 | .221/.279/.347 | .125 | .305 | 13 | 18 | 31% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .195/.262/.318 | .123 | .291 | 13 | 16 | 36% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .187/.261/.298 | .111 | .273 | 11 | 15 | 34% | 7% | 51 | -1.2 |
|
✕Slade Heathcott 2015 · AA |
24 | 47 | 43→45 | 51→50 | 38 | .222/.273/.335 | .113 | .326 | 9 | 16 | 34% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .230/.281/.335 | .105 | .321 | 10 | 10 | 30% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .230/.288/.345 | .115 | .317 | 12 | 10 | 30% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 |
|
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA |
25 | 46→45 | 46→50 | 53→50 | 48 | .227/.308/.358 | .131 | .293 | 14 | 18 | 26% | 9% | 89 | +1.0 | .206/.284/.348 | .142 | .267 | 16 | 13 | 28% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .176/.257/.318 | .142 | .226 | 17 | 10 | 29% | 9% | 55 | -0.8 |