Ernesto Martinez Jr.1B
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 27
L/L
6'6" / 254 lbs
AAA
HR +8%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†75
AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .296 / .354
PA250
HR5
SB6
K%26
BB%7
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
45→45
PWR
45→45
SPD
45→45
EYE
45↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-7M | $-17M | -$11M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 196 | 170 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 3 | .159 | .263 | .247 | .510 | .088 | .255 | 37 | 11 | .237 | 40 | -13 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +6 | -1.2 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 146 | 131 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 69 | 5 | 5 | 3 | .145 | .233 | .183 | .416 | .038 | .306 | 47 | 7 | .185 | 0 | -17 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | -1.6 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 311 | 277 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 113 | 10 | 30 | 4 | .213 | .292 | .375 | .668 | .162 | .316 | 36 | 7 | .286 | 77 | -8 | +4 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 102 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .176 | .307 | .341 | .648 | .165 | .244 | 36 | 15 | .297 | 85 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | 2 teams | 397 | 365 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 108 | 5 | 16 | 6 | .211 | .275 | .329 | .603 | .118 | .274 | 27 | 7 | .265 | 61 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +11 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 457 | 414 | 105 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 101 | 13 | 20 | 5 | .254 | .319 | .403 | .723 | .150 | .310 | 22 | 6 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | 2 teams | 327 | 290 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 101 | 6 | 3 | 3 | .221 | .300 | .328 | .628 | .107 | .314 | 31 | 8 | .281 | 73 | -10 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 76 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .194 | .237 | .389 | .626 | .194 | .268 | 37 | 5 | .269 | 64 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 174 | 157 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .223 | .291 | .363 | .654 | .140 | .289 | 28 | 7 | .290 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | 250 | 229 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 6 | 1 | .214 | .274 | .371 | .645 | .157 | .288 | 31 | 6 | .283 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 20% | NYY | 322 | 290 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 72 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .228 | .298 | .372 | .670 | .145 | .274 | 22 | 8 | .302 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 33% | NYY | 343 | 308 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 78 | 5 | 6 | 2 | .231 | .303 | .380 | .683 | .149 | .274 | 23 | 8 | .301 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 43% | NYY | 356 | 320 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 82 | 5 | 5 | 2 | .228 | .300 | .375 | .675 | .147 | .274 | 23 | 8 | .299 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 52% | NYY | 350 | 314 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 82 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .226 | .300 | .373 | .672 | .146 | .273 | 23 | 8 | .296 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 64% | NYY | 337 | 304 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 81 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .220 | .290 | .359 | .649 | .138 | .272 | 24 | 8 | .292 | 81 | -7 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 81% | NYY | 311 | 280 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 76 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .218 | .289 | .354 | .643 | .136 | .270 | 24 | 8 | .286 | 77 | -8 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +9 | -0.9 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 270 | 244 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 69 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .213 | .284 | .340 | .624 | .127 | .268 | 26 | 8 | .279 | 72 | -9 | +0 | -5 | -5 | +8 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4399 | 3949 | 862 | 182 | 25 | 99 | 339 | 1190 | 76 | 112 | 33 | .218 | .293 | .352 | .645 | .134 | .284 | 27 | 8 | .286 | 77 | -116 | +9 | -20 | -79 | +125 | -8.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 584 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 176 | 11 | 17 | 5 | .219 | .293 | .356 | .649 | .137 | .285 | 27 | 8 | .286 | 77 | -17 | +1 | -3 | -12 | +18 | -1.2 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 196 | 155 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 36 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 3 | .232 | .387 | .368 | .754 | .135 | .317 | 26 | 18 | .347 | 123 | +5 | -1 | — | — | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 146 | 125 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 3 | .224 | .336 | .280 | .616 | .056 | .364 | 33 | 11 | .293 | 82 | -3 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 311 | 266 | 73 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 84 | 10 | 30 | 4 | .274 | .373 | .492 | .866 | .218 | .356 | 27 | 10 | .379 | 148 | +17 | +4 | — | — | +9 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 77 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .237 | .408 | .390 | .798 | .153 | .324 | 27 | 21 | .364 | 137 | +3 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 25 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .263 | .440 | .737 | 1.177 | .474 | .222 | 28 | 24 | .490 | 233 | +4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 125 | 106 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | .245 | .352 | .349 | .701 | .104 | .293 | 18 | 14 | .323 | 105 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 272 | 243 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 57 | 4 | 13 | 4 | .267 | .338 | .444 | .783 | .177 | .312 | 21 | 8 | .347 | 124 | +7 | +1 | — | — | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 457 | 401 | 114 | 30 | 2 | 13 | 40 | 77 | 13 | 20 | 5 | .284 | .368 | .466 | .834 | .182 | .322 | 17 | 9 | .369 | 141 | +21 | +2 | — | — | +13 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 311 | 263 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 81 | 5 | 1 | 3 | .255 | .362 | .388 | .749 | .133 | .339 | 26 | 13 | .337 | 116 | +6 | -1 | — | — | +9 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .385 | .500 | .462 | .962 | .077 | .455 | 12 | 12 | .440 | 195 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +0 | 0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Ernesto Martinez Jr. (OGILVIE) | 27 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 60 | .225/.296/.354 | .129 | .293 | 5 | 5 | 26% | 7% | 83 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Carlos Alvarez 2015 · AAA |
27 | 47 | 43→45 | 47→45 | 51 | .228/.295/.344 | .116 | .273 | 10 | 9 | 20% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .236/.308/.333 | .097 | .289 | 7 | 8 | 19% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .238/.311/.313 | .075 | .297 | 4 | 6 | 19% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Carlos Moncrief 2016 · AAA |
27 | 46→52 | 46→50 | 50 | 45 | .231/.286/.365 | .134 | .293 | 14 | 11 | 26% | 7% | 81 | +0.4 | .225/.286/.340 | .115 | .301 | 11 | 11 | 27% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .228/.288/.334 | .106 | .311 | 9 | 11 | 28% | 7% | 70 | -0.1 |
|
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB |
26 | 44→41 | 47→50 | 48→45 | 47 | .217/.294/.358 | .141 | .288 | 13 | 7 | 28% | 9% | 83 | +0.6 | .217/.305/.366 | .149 | .274 | 17 | 5 | 26% | 10% | 90 | +1.0 | .205/.305/.354 | .149 | .253 | 18 | 3 | 26% | 11% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Bijan Rademacher 2018 · AAA |
27 | 51→48 | 44→45 | 45 | 50 | .246/.311/.364 | .118 | .303 | 11 | 5 | 22% | 8% | 91 | +1.1 | .224/.276/.308 | .084 | .287 | 7 | 6 | 23% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .203/.251/.245 | .043 | .262 | 3 | 3 | 22% | 6% | 33 | -1.9 |
|
✕Christian Marrero 2013 · AAA |
27 | 48→54 | 46→50 | 47→50 | 49 | .239/.301/.372 | .134 | .283 | 12 | 10 | 20% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .228/.299/.364 | .136 | .274 | 13 | 8 | 21% | 9% | 86 | +0.8 | .246/.327/.385 | .139 | .293 | 15 | 3 | 20% | 10% | 102 | +1.0 |
|
✕Taylor Kohlwey 2021 · AAA |
27 | 47→53 | 43→45 | 49→50 | 43 | .224/.293/.338 | .114 | .317 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .238/.306/.339 | .101 | .316 | 8 | 11 | 25% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .236/.313/.340 | .104 | .303 | 9 | 11 | 23% | 9% | 83 | +0.5 |
|
✕Bligh Madris 2023 · MLB |
27 | 46→47 | 45→50 | 43→50 | 45 | .230/.285/.361 | .131 | .290 | 12 | 7 | 25% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .210/.279/.361 | .151 | .275 | 18 | 13 | 29% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .194/.270/.354 | .160 | .248 | 21 | 15 | 30% | 9% | 70 | -0.2 |
|
✕Nathan Panther 2008 · AA |
27 | 44→43 | 45 | 44→45 | 48 | .220/.289/.345 | .125 | .271 | 12 | 8 | 23% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .229/.296/.356 | .127 | .285 | 12 | 7 | 23% | 8% | 83 | +0.6 | .232/.299/.352 | .120 | .286 | 11 | 5 | 22% | 9% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Casey Rogowski 2008 · AAA |
27 | 47→53 | 45 | 50→55 | 45 | .231/.292/.361 | .129 | .290 | 12 | 18 | 24% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .225/.284/.352 | .127 | .300 | 14 | 17 | 28% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .222/.282/.345 | .123 | .305 | 13 | 17 | 30% | 8% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Mike Papi 2019 · AAA |
26 | 44→47 | 46→45 | 45 | 49 | .220/.298/.347 | .127 | .290 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .217/.284/.324 | .107 | .302 | 9 | 7 | 29% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .167/.226/.209 | .042 | .248 | 0 | 0 | 30% | 6% | 12 | -0.7 |
|
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2017 · AAA |
27 | 46→51 | 44→50 | 44→50 | 43 | .223/.282/.335 | .112 | .305 | 12 | 7 | 30% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .233/.307/.389 | .156 | .317 | 19 | 5 | 30% | 9% | 96 | +1.5 | .232/.317/.403 | .172 | .307 | 22 | 2 | 30% | 10% | 103 | +1.4 |
|
✕Jaycob Brugman 2019 · MLB |
27 | 48 | 43→50 | 46→45 | 44 | .232/.286/.340 | .108 | .304 | 11 | 8 | 27% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .222/.279/.392 | .170 | .298 | 21 | 7 | 32% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .201/.262/.414 | .213 | .256 | 29 | 0 | 34% | 7% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Jesus Valenzuela 2016 · AAA |
27 | 51 | 40 | 43→40 | 50 | .243/.304/.337 | .094 | .297 | 8 | 7 | 20% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .229/.274/.335 | .106 | .281 | 11 | 8 | 22% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .223/.263/.309 | .086 | .270 | 9 | 2 | 20% | 5% | 56 | -0.3 |
|
✕Slade Heathcott 2018 · MLB |
27 | 47 | 45 | 46→50 | 42 | .231/.289/.354 | .123 | .315 | 13 | 10 | 30% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .225/.284/.347 | .122 | .328 | 12 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 | .205/.260/.287 | .081 | .336 | 4 | 17 | 38% | 6% | 45 | -0.4 |
|
✕Ben Guez 2014 · AAA |
27 | 46→52 | 47→50 | 46→50 | 44 | .229/.300/.370 | .141 | .303 | 14 | 12 | 28% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .208/.282/.362 | .154 | .287 | 18 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .191/.268/.351 | .160 | .254 | 20 | 13 | 32% | 7% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕David MacKinnon 2022 · AA |
27 | 47→50 | 45 | 43→30 | 49 | .231/.306/.363 | .133 | .298 | 12 | 5 | 26% | 9% | 89 | +1.0 | .234/.307/.383 | .149 | .297 | 15 | 5 | 25% | 9% | 95 | +1.4 | .228/.308/.387 | .160 | .282 | 16 | 3 | 24% | 10% | 96 | +1.0 |
|
✕Larry Broadway 2008 · AAA |
27 | 45→48 | 49→50 | 49→40 | 45 | .229/.287/.377 | .148 | .291 | 16 | 5 | 27% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .223/.279/.352 | .129 | .296 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .216/.270/.337 | .120 | .289 | 12 | 2 | 28% | 6% | 66 | -0.4 |
|
✕Brad Nelson 2009 · AAA |
26 | 44→48 | 48→50 | 44→50 | 48 | .224/.288/.364 | .141 | .270 | 15 | 11 | 23% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .212/.273/.357 | .145 | .249 | 18 | 6 | 22% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .215/.284/.369 | .153 | .257 | 19 | 2 | 24% | 8% | 80 | +0.3 |
|
✕Brian Van Kirk 2013 · AA |
27 | 47→52 | 45 | 45 | 46 | .231/.294/.353 | .123 | .296 | 13 | 7 | 26% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .239/.312/.334 | .095 | .306 | 8 | 8 | 22% | 9% | 84 | +0.6 | .256/.353/.320 | .064 | .317 | 4 | 5 | 18% | 13% | 94 | +0.6 |
|
✕Trenton Brooks 2022 · AAA |
27 | 44→50 | 48→50 | 48→45 | 47 | .222/.282/.371 | .149 | .264 | 15 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .236/.311/.386 | .150 | .277 | 16 | 7 | 20% | 9% | 98 | +1.6 | .238/.324/.383 | .144 | .272 | 16 | 8 | 18% | 10% | 100 | +1.2 |