Ernesto Martinez Jr.

1B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 28 L/L 6'6" / 254 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAMIL457.284/.368/.466132095—.251/.317/.394
202526AAA/INTL2 orgs327.261/.368/.3916381—.222/.303/.320
202627AAAScranton/Wilk…447.243/.336/.439171467—.201/.270/.345
2027PROJ10% MLB28MLBNYY16.224/.294/.3630083-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB29MLBNYY58.223/.292/.3581182-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV99
Speed81
BB%59
Z-Con%54
K%37
Chase%36
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsLuis Liberato (age 28) · Bligh Madris (age 28) · Travis Ishikawa (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .294 / .363
PA16
HR0
K%31
BB%6
BABIP301
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201718 ROKAZL Brewers — 196155 361013 36503 23 232387368754 135317 2618 347 50 — — — — — —
201819 ROKAZL Brewers — 146125 28510 16485 53 224336280616 56364 3311 293 12 — — — — — —
202122 ACarolina Mudcats — 311266 7315511 328410 304 274373492866 218356 2710 379 75 — — — — — —
202223 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 7759 14302 16211 81 237408390798 153324 2721 364 80 — — — — — —
202223 ROKACL Brewers Blue — 2519 5003 670 00 2634407371.177 474222 2824 490 104 — — — — — —
202324 AABiloxi Shuckers — 125106 26502 17221 32 245352349701 104293 1814 323 71 — — — — — —
202324 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 272243 6511110 23574 134 267338444783 177312 218 347 63 — — — — — —
202425 AABiloxi Shuckers — 457401 11430213 407713 205 284368466834 182322 179 369 95 — — — — — —
202526 AAANashville Sounds — 311263 671326 39815 13 255362388749 133339 2613 337 76 — — — — — —
202526 INTLEstrellas Orientales — 1613 5100 221 20 385500462962 77455 1212 440 184 — — — — — —
202627 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447387 9417417 511133 141 243336439775 196293 2511 340 67 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201718 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 196169 28712 22723 23 166273254528 89253 3711 242 50 — — — — — —
201819 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 146131 19310 10695 53 145233183416 38291 477 186 12 — — — — — —
202122 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 311276 571048 2211510 304 207289359648 152300 377 279 75 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 7764 12202 11271 81 188316312628 125267 3514 286 80 — — — — — —
202223 ROK MLEACL Brewers Blue — 2521 3002 4100 00 143280429709 286158 4016 322 104 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 125112 25502 12291 32 223304321625 98283 2310 273 71 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 272252 53917 16764 134 210268337606 127266 286 261 63 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 457414 1042829 279513 205 251317394711 143299 216 308 95 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 311275 611124 27965 13 222303320623 98312 319 280 76 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447403 8114412 351353 141 201270345615 144255 308 267 67 — — — — — —
201718 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 196169 28712 22723 23 166273254528 89268 3711 242 50 — — — — — —
201718 ROK RAWAZL Brewers — 196155 361013 36503 23 232387368754 135317 2618 347 50 — — — — — —
201819 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 146131 19310 10695 53 145233183416 38306 477 186 12 — — — — — —
201819 ROK RAWAZL Brewers — 146125 28510 16485 53 224336280616 56364 3311 293 12 — — — — — —
202122 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 311276 571048 2211510 304 207289359648 152314 377 279 75 — — — — — —
202122 A RAWCarolina Mudcats — 311266 7315511 328410 304 274373492866 218356 2710 379 75 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLE2 teams — 10285 15204 15371 81 176307341648 165244 3615 295 86 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAW2 teams — 10278 19305 22281 81 244416474890 231304 2722 395 86 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 397364 781419 281055 166 214280332612 118276 267 265 65 — — — — — —
202324 A+ RAW2 teams — 397349 9116112 40795 166 261343415758 155306 2010 340 65 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 457414 1042829 279513 205 251317394711 143304 216 308 95 — — — — — —
202425 AA RAWBiloxi Shuckers — 457401 11430213 407713 205 284368466834 182322 179 369 95 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 327289 641224 281016 33 221303318622 97319 319 280 76 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAW2 teams — 327276 721426 41836 33 261368391760 130346 2513 342 76 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447403 8114412 351353 141 201270345615 144263 308 267 67 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAWScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447387 9417417 511133 141 243336439775 196293 2511 340 67 — — — — — —
201718 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 196169 28712 22723 23 166273254528 89253 3711 242 50 — — — — — —
201819 ROK MLEAZL Brewers — 146130 19310 10695 53 146233185417 38291 477 186 12 — — — — — —
202122 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 311276 571048 2211510 304 207289359648 152300 377 279 75 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLE2 teams — 10285 15204 15371 81 176307341648 165240 3615 295 86 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 397361 781419 281055 166 216280335615 119271 267 265 65 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 457414 1042829 279513 205 251317394711 143299 216 308 95 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 327290 641224 281016 33 221303317621 97312 319 280 76 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447406 8114412 351353 141 200270342612 143255 308 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 457414 1042829 279513 205 251317394711 143299 216 308 95 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 327290 641224 281016 33 221303317621 97312 319 280 76 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 447406 8114412 351353 141 200270342612 143255 308 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLENYY 10% 380344 761538 291114 82 223293357650 134301 298 291 83 -8 +1 +0 -7 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXNYY 10% 1615 3100 150 00 224294363657 138301 316 294 83 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLENYY 27% 212192 42815 16622 41 221291352644 131298 298 289 82 -5 +0 -1 -4 +5 -0.5
202829 MLB CTXNYY 27% 5853 11201 4171 10 223292358650 135298 297 291 82 -1 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 5853 11201 4171 10 208276302578 94286 297 291 72 -1 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650594 12322011 4519111 110 207275300575 93286 297 291 72 -14 +2 -4 -12 +14 -1.4
Career— MLE — 27502463 5191041756 21583650 10528 211287335622 124291 308 274 72 -8 +1 -1 -7 +8 -0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 12325413 5119812 257 211288335623 124293 308 274 72 -14 +1 -2 -12 +14 -1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 447 PAwOBA .336 → .267 (−69)K% 25.3% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.28%÷1.000×1.200——30.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.41%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0037.90%
HBP% /PA0.67%—×0.940—×1.0030.63%
Singles /BIP20.44%÷1.000×0.930×0.973×1.00318.55%
Doubles /BIP6.20%÷1.000×0.830×0.973×1.0035.03%
Triples /BIP1.46%÷1.000×0.970×0.973×1.0031.38%
Home runs /BIP6.20%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0034.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .336 → .267; ISO .196 → .147; BABIP .293 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 311 PAwOBA .332 → .280 (−53)K% 26.0% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.05%÷1.010×1.200——30.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.22%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0188.58%
HBP% /PA1.61%—×0.940—×1.0181.54%
Singles /BIP25.27%÷0.983×0.930×0.982×1.01823.93%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.973×0.830×0.982×1.0186.10%
Triples /BIP1.10%÷0.900×0.970×0.982×1.0181.18%
Home runs /BIP3.30%÷1.111×0.700—×1.0182.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .332 → .280; ISO .133 → .103; BABIP .339 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 457 PAwOBA .361 → .308 (−53)K% 16.8% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.85%÷0.994×1.220——20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.53%÷0.989×0.680—×0.9985.85%
HBP% /PA2.84%—×0.840—×0.9982.38%
Singles /BIP21.30%÷0.972×0.920×1.001×0.99820.12%
Doubles /BIP9.26%÷0.971×0.910×1.001×0.9988.67%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷0.900×0.880×1.001×0.9980.60%
Home runs /BIP4.01%÷1.198×0.800—×0.9982.67%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .361 → .308; ISO .182 → .145; BABIP .322 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 272 PAwOBA .338 → .261 (−77)K% 21.0% → 27.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.96%÷0.955×1.270——27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.46%÷1.024×0.710—×0.9885.79%
HBP% /PA1.47%—×0.790—×0.9881.15%
Singles /BIP23.12%÷1.013×0.920×0.979×0.98820.31%
Doubles /BIP5.91%÷0.966×0.810×0.979×0.9884.80%
Triples /BIP0.54%÷1.150×0.850×0.979×0.9880.38%
Home runs /BIP5.38%÷1.033×0.800—×0.9884.11%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .338 → .261; ISO .177 → .131; BABIP .312 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 125 PAwOBA .315 → .273 (−42)K% 17.6% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.60%÷0.924×1.220——23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.60%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0129.36%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.840—×1.0120.68%
Singles /BIP22.62%÷0.988×0.920×0.994×1.01221.18%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷0.827×0.910×0.994×1.0126.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.880×0.994×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.38%÷1.055×0.800—×1.0121.83%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 65, 3B 80, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .315 → .273; ISO .104 → .095; BABIP .293 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 77 PAwOBA .356 → .286 (−71)K% 27.3% → 35.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.27%÷0.977×1.270——35.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.48%÷0.944×0.710—×0.99814.63%
HBP% /PA1.30%—×0.790—×0.9981.02%
Singles /BIP23.68%÷1.083×0.920—×0.99820.07%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷1.049×0.810—×0.9986.08%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850—×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷0.885×0.800—×0.9984.75%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 117, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .286; ISO .153 → .130; BABIP .324 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 25 PAwOBA .476 → .322 (−154)K% 28.0% → 40.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.00%÷1.005×1.440——40.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA24.00%÷0.963×0.620—×0.96514.92%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.024×0.820—×0.96512.87%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.030×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.922×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP25.00%÷1.005×0.780—×0.96518.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 101, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .476 → .322; ISO .474 → .332; BABIP .222 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACarolina Mudcats · 311 PAwOBA .373 → .279 (−94)K% 27.0% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.01%÷0.996×1.360——36.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.29%÷1.017×0.690——6.98%
HBP% /PA3.22%—×0.780——2.51%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.990×0.920×0.981—21.03%
Doubles /BIP8.24%÷1.177×0.830×0.981—5.70%
Triples /BIP2.75%÷1.052×0.910×0.981—2.33%
Home runs /BIP6.04%÷0.974×0.800——4.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 135, 3B 110, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .373 → .279; ISO .218 → .158; BABIP .356 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .