Travis Swaggerty
LF Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AAAPIT | 458 | .254/.349/.399 | 9 | 20 | 71 | — | .218/.285/.338 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAAPIT | 72 | .200/.278/.369 | 1 | 3 | 41 | — | .179/.236/.328 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AANYM | 101 | .207/.310/.276 | 0 | 2 | 44 | — | .193/.271/.248 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBNYM | 2 | .204/.272/.312 | 0 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBNYM | 34 | .202/.270/.308 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 71 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 159 | 25 | 10 | 213 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | — | 524 | 457 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 57 | 116 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 349 | 381 | 730 | 116 | 334 | 22 | 11 | 326 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 48 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 220 | 333 | 439 | 772 | 220 | 200 | 17 | 12 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 458 | 398 | 101 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 57 | 117 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 254 | 349 | 399 | 748 | 146 | 337 | 26 | 12 | 336 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 72 | 65 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 278 | 369 | 647 | 169 | 267 | 26 | 7 | 289 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 25 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 458 | 368 | 827 | 53 | 462 | 28 | 16 | 373 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 76 | 68 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 263 | 250 | 513 | 74 | 273 | 32 | 11 | 241 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 71 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 186 | 203 | 389 | 94 | 141 | 34 | 7 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 524 | 471 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 164 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 210 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 89 | 298 | 31 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 48 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 271 | 326 | 596 | 140 | 187 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 458 | 417 | 91 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 38 | 143 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 218 | 285 | 338 | 623 | 120 | 311 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 72 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 236 | 328 | 564 | 149 | 247 | 33 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 25 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 417 | 350 | 767 | 50 | 428 | 36 | 12 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 76 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 224 | 214 | 438 | 57 | 265 | 38 | 8 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 71 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 186 | 203 | 389 | 94 | 150 | 34 | 7 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A RAW | West Virginia Power | — | 71 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 159 | 25 | 10 | 213 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 524 | 471 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 164 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 210 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 89 | 304 | 31 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 524 | 457 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 57 | 116 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 265 | 349 | 381 | 730 | 116 | 334 | 22 | 11 | 326 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 48 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 271 | 326 | 596 | 140 | 194 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 48 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 220 | 333 | 439 | 772 | 220 | 200 | 17 | 12 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 458 | 417 | 91 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 38 | 143 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 218 | 285 | 338 | 623 | 120 | 316 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 458 | 398 | 101 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 57 | 117 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 254 | 349 | 399 | 748 | 146 | 337 | 26 | 12 | 336 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 72 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 236 | 328 | 564 | 149 | 262 | 33 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 72 | 65 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 278 | 369 | 647 | 169 | 267 | 26 | 7 | 289 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 91 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 242 | 502 | 55 | 309 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 101 | 87 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 310 | 276 | 586 | 69 | 316 | 31 | 12 | 274 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 71 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 186 | 200 | 386 | 92 | 141 | 34 | 7 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 524 | 474 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 164 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 209 | 279 | 297 | 577 | 89 | 298 | 31 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 48 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 271 | 326 | 596 | 140 | 187 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 458 | 416 | 91 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 38 | 143 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 219 | 285 | 339 | 624 | 120 | 311 | 31 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 72 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 236 | 328 | 564 | 149 | 247 | 33 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 91 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 242 | 502 | 55 | 305 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 101 | 91 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 242 | 502 | 55 | 305 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 200 | 181 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 278 | 321 | 599 | 111 | 291 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 272 | 312 | 584 | 108 | 281 | 50 | 0 | 265 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 23% | 151 | 138 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 276 | 317 | 593 | 109 | 288 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 23% | 34 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 270 | 308 | 578 | 106 | 279 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 68 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 265 | 323 | 587 | 129 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 60 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 114 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 263 | 320 | 583 | 128 | 248 | 29 | 9 | 262 | 60 | -25 | +0 | -9 | -7 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1530 | 1386 | 282 | 50 | 15 | 22 | 120 | 479 | 10 | 55 | 17 | 203 | 272 | 309 | 581 | 105 | 291 | 31 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 119 | 21 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 203 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 202 | 270 | 304 | 574 | 102 | 289 | 31 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -24 | +0 | -5 | -7 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 76 PAwOBA .236 → .199 (−36)K% 31.6% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 15.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 10.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .236 → .199; ISO .074 → .065; BABIP .273 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 25 PAwOBA .380 → .336 (−45)K% 28.0% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.67% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 39.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.167 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .336; ISO .053 → .045; BABIP .462 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 72 PAwOBA .282 → .229 (−53)K% 26.4% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.39% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 12.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 3.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .282 → .229; ISO .169 → .130; BABIP .267 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 458 PAwOBA .328 → .273 (−55)K% 25.5% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.55% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷1.058 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.56% | ÷1.087 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 22.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.34% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.85% | ÷0.942 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 3.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .328 → .273; ISO .146 → .125; BABIP .337 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 48 PAwOBA .337 → .262 (−75)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.100 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.914 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.09% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .262; ISO .220 → .147; BABIP .200 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 524 PAwOBA .320 → .258 (−62)K% 22.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.14% | ÷1.005 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.88% | ÷0.999 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.10% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 23.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.87% | ÷1.005 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.915 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.64% | ÷1.069 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.20% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 83, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .258; ISO .116 → .093; BABIP .334 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AWest Virginia Power · 71 PAwOBA .211 → .158 (−53)K% 25.4% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.35% | ÷0.996 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷1.038 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×1.015 | 10.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×1.015 | 1.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.080 | ×0.940 | ×0.975 | ×1.015 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.181 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 116, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .211 → .158; ISO .097 → .071; BABIP .159 → .141. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).