JT Quinn — OGILVIE

JT Quinn P Frederick Keys

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%22.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—50

CTRL—40

CMD—50

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	25	117	480	129	40	17	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	25	117	480	129	40	17	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	BAL	21	20	94	383	106	28	15	95%	4.5	27.7%	7.3%	20.4%	3.9%	3.75	3.84	—
2026	22	AA RAW	BAL	5	5	23	97	23	12	2	100%	4.6	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	2.1%	1.96	3.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	119	501	117	45	15	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.32	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	122	513	122	44	15	100%	5.5	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.21	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	123	520	125	44	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	3.0%	4.21	4.16	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	123	520	126	44	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.0%	4.16	4.14	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	121	512	124	43	16	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.5%	15.8%	3.0%	4.17	4.17	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	497	120	43	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	3.1%	4.22	4.26	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	112	475	113	42	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.32	4.39	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	446	105	41	16	100%	5.9	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.5%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	99	416	96	40	15	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	3.7%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	91	385	87	38	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	4.0%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	59	249	58	23	8	100%	5.4	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	3.2%	4.45	4.39	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	85	359	85	31	11	100%	5.7	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.35	4.28	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	102	36	13	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.5%	15.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.23	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	110	38	14	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.21	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	110	464	112	39	15	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.5%	15.8%	3.2%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	110	39	15	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	3.3%	4.30	4.34	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	105	443	106	39	15	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.8%	15.0%	3.4%	4.40	4.47	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	98	38	15	100%	6.2	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.6%	4.56	4.66	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	92	38	15	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	3.9%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	83	36	15	100%	6.2	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	4.1%	4.96	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	161	953	4024	955	357	137	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.09	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	75	29	100%	5.9	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.44	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		26	25	117	480	100	45	21	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	823	172	78	36	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JT Quinn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	22.7%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.23	23.7%	15.0%	363	-0.26	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	89
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	89
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	80
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	80
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	80
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	79
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	79
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	79
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	78
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	105	23.7%	8.9%	1.25	4.35
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73