JT Quinn

P Frederick Keys

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#318ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	26	25	117	3.39	3.81	26.9%	8.3%	—	K 20.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	1	1	1	4.80	4.80	21.6%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBAL	11	11	59	4.76	4.72	22.2%	9.6%	0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBBAL	12	12	70	4.67	4.63	22.6%	9.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 75%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Ty Madden (age 23) · Kyle Wright (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%21.6%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	117	480	129	40	17	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	117	480	129	40	17	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	117	480	129	40	17	96%	4.5	26.9%	8.3%	18.5%	3.5%	3.39	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.80	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	137	577	128	55	19	100%	5.7	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.64	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	447	101	42	15	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.3%	4.59	4.55	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	104	437	99	40	14	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.54	4.51	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	423	96	39	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.54	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	404	91	38	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.63	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	89	375	84	36	13	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.6%	4.69	4.76	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	81	340	75	34	13	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.8%	4.84	4.94	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	72	304	66	31	12	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	4.0%	5.02	5.14	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	59	249	55	24	9	100%	5.4	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.5%	4.76	4.72	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	67	28	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	3.4%	4.67	4.63	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	82	346	79	32	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.59	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	86	363	82	34	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.62	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	85	359	81	34	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	3.6%	4.67	4.71	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	76	33	13	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.7%	4.78	4.85	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	74	312	69	31	12	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.93	5.03	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	67	283	61	29	12	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	4.2%	5.12	5.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	604	2550	571	243	93	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.5%	12.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.41	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	80	31	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.5%	12.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		26	25	117	480	100	45	21	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	823	172	78	36	96%	4.5	20.9%	9.5%	11.4%	4.4%	3.39	4.95	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 94 IPFIP 3.84 → 5.05 (+1.21)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.68%	—	×0.770	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.31%	—	×1.150	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 23 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.56 (+0.76)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.71%	—	×0.810	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.37%	—	×1.100	13.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JT Quinn (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.57	22.5%	13.1%	346	-0.23	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	90
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	88
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	88
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	87
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	86
Wyatt Marks R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	.301	6.34	9.5%	-10.4%	18	+2.14	4.20	152	86
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	86
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	86
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	86
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.8%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	5.95	19.1%	3.2%	168	+1.93	4.02	412	85
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.06	18.1%	9.6%	296	+0.01	3.86	496	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	85
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.51	19.0%	11.8%	445	+0.39	4.12	747	84
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	84
Will Warren R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP	3.83	18.4%	8.6%	2.2%	.299	4.03	23.9%	14.9%	424	+0.20	3.72	709	84
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	84
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	102	22.3%	9.6%	1.33	4.69
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Sammy Ellis ('62-'69, 5 WAR*)	5.0	143	20.0%*	9.7%*	1.49*	4.84*