Mavis Graves
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 22
LHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.0 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112121vR 130
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%21.9%
BB%14.8%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 11 | 11 | 34 | 163 | 45 | 29 | 4 | 100% | 3.1 | 18.8% | 22.2% | -3.5% | 3.3% | 7.68 | 6.12 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 11 | 11 | 34 | 163 | 45 | 29 | 4 | 100% | 3.1 | 27.6% | 17.8% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 7.68 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 18 | 16 | 84 | 368 | 117 | 36 | 3 | 89% | 4.7 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 3.64 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 18 | 16 | 84 | 368 | 117 | 36 | 3 | 89% | 4.7 | 31.8% | 9.8% | 22.0% | 0.8% | 3.64 | 2.06 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 21 | 21 | 82 | 372 | 103 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 4.41 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 21 | 21 | 82 | 372 | 103 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 3.9 | 27.7% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 3.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 15 | 15 | 54 | 238 | 81 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 3.6 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 5.8% | 4.97 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 53 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 14.8% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 14.8% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 4.94 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 112 | 480 | 134 | 64 | 17 | — | — | 27.9% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 14.8% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 57 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 60 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.8% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 62 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 61 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.8% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 40 | 231 | 974 | 231 | 112 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.02 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 97 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 65 | 63 | 254 | 1141 | 259 | 170 | 29 | 97% | 3.9 | 22.7% | 14.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.47 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 50 | 200 | 898 | 204 | 134 | 23 | 97% | 3.9 | 22.7% | 14.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mavis Graves (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 21.9% | 14.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.45 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 182 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 91 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 88 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 88 |
| Johnny King L 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.22 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 129 | 85 |
| Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 84 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 84 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 84 |
| Brent Headrick L 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 22.9% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .383 | 4.63 | 24.2% | 16.7% | 227 | +0.11 | 2.40 | 382 | 83 |
| Xavier Rivas L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.87 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .229 | 5.34 | 28.7% | 15.4% | 64 | +0.47 | 4.87 | 150 | 83 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 83 |
| Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.40 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 2.4% | .327 | 4.20 | 19.8% | 4.6% | 230 | -0.20 | 3.42 | 326 | 83 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 83 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 82 |
| Luis De La Torre L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.47 | 22.7% | 20.1% | 3.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 173 | 82 |
| Ryan Webb L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.91 | 22.0% | 15.4% | 1.3% | .398 | 3.71 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 345 | -0.20 | 3.28 | 443 | 81 |
| Joel Valdez L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.75 | 24.4% | 16.8% | 1.1% | .271 | 4.36 | 20.0% | 5.8% | 194 | +0.61 | 2.84 | 324 | 80 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.04 | 2.54 | 743 | 80 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 80 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 79 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 60 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 1.01 | 4.53 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |