Mavis Graves

P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#652ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	APHI	18	16	84	3.64	2.06	31.8%	9.8%	—	K 23.5% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.10
2025	21	A+PHI	21	21	82	4.41	3.41	27.7%	13.7%	—	K 21.3% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.36
2026	22	MIX2 levels	30	16	77	3.86	3.76	34.8%	12.8%	—	K 27.2% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBPHI	—	—	0	4.93	4.93	25.2%	15.1%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBPHI	4	4	20	4.86	4.78	25.6%	13.3%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBPHI	5	5	32	4.70	4.61	25.8%	12.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.8M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 24) · Hayden Mullins (age 23) · Larson Kindreich (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%25.2%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	100%	3.1	18.8%	22.2%	-3.5%	3.3%	7.68	6.17	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	100%	3.1	27.6%	17.8%	9.8%	2.5%	7.68	4.54	—
2024	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.0%	3.64	3.10	—
2024	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.0%	3.64	3.10	—
2024	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	31.8%	9.8%	22.0%	0.8%	3.64	2.06	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.8%	5.6%	1.9%	4.41	4.36	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.8%	5.6%	1.9%	4.41	4.36	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	27.7%	13.7%	14.0%	1.6%	4.41	3.41	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	77	336	117	43	12	53%	2.6	27.2%	14.5%	12.7%	4.5%	3.86	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	16	77	336	117	43	12	53%	2.6	27.2%	14.5%	12.7%	4.5%	3.86	5.09	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	16	77	336	117	43	12	53%	2.6	34.8%	12.8%	22.0%	3.6%	3.86	3.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.2%	15.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	65	275	71	37	8	100%	5.4	25.6%	13.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.66	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	62	262	68	32	8	100%	5.6	25.8%	12.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.58	4.49	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	61	258	67	31	8	100%	6.1	25.9%	12.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.50	4.46	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	59	251	65	30	8	100%	5.9	25.8%	12.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.49	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	56	239	61	29	8	100%	6.3	25.7%	12.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	52	221	56	27	7	100%	5.8	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.3%	4.64	4.71	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	47	198	50	25	7	100%	5.9	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	20	84	22	11	3	100%	5.0	25.6%	13.3%	12.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.78	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	32	135	35	16	4	100%	6.4	25.8%	12.2%	13.6%	3.2%	4.70	4.61	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	44	20	5	100%	5.7	25.9%	12.0%	13.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.58	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	44	186	48	22	6	100%	6.3	25.8%	12.0%	13.8%	3.3%	4.61	4.61	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	45	190	49	23	6	100%	5.6	25.7%	12.2%	13.6%	3.4%	4.67	4.71	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	43	182	46	22	6	100%	6.1	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.5%	4.77	4.84	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	40	169	42	21	6	100%	5.7	25.1%	12.7%	12.4%	3.8%	4.93	5.03	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	264	1113	285	137	38	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.3%	13.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.36	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	216	104	29	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.3%	13.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		80	64	277	1239	288	186	31	80%	3.5	23.2%	15.0%	8.2%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	46	200	896	208	135	22	80%	3.5	23.2%	15.0%	8.2%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 58 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.80 (+1.52)K% 33.9% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.86%	—	×0.770	26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.42%	—	×1.150	13.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.72%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 19 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.89 (+0.82)K% 37.8% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.80%	—	×0.810	30.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.100	18.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 82 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.36 (+0.97)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.770	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.71%	—	×1.150	15.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.045	×1.250	1.93%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 84 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.10 (+1.00)K% 31.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.79%	—	×0.740	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.78%	—	×1.180	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷1.115	×1.300	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Phillies · 34 IPFIP 4.37 → 6.17 (+1.80)K% 27.6% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.61%	—	×0.680	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.79%	—	×1.250	22.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.028	×1.400	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 6.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mavis Graves (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.54	25.8%	13.3%	188	-0.39	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	78
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	76
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.55	24.0%	17.0%	227	+0.19	2.36	414	76
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	75
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	74
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	74
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	58	25.6%	12.8%	1.21	4.65
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*