Mavis Graves — OGILVIE

Mavis Graves P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

+0.4 WAR

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2030

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.5%

IP82

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2030

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	7.68	6.13	-0.5
2024	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	3.64	3.09	+2.0
2025	21	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	21.3%	15.8%	1.9%	4.41	4.35	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	2	7	26	14	2	1	—	—	—	1.29	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	PHI	15	15	82	345	78	42	9	22.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
2026 Total	22	MLB	PHI	—	—	89	371	92	44	10	24.8%	11.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.18	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	PHI	19	19	105	442	103	48	12	23.3%	10.8%	2.6%	4.39	4.31	+1.2
2028	24	MLB	PHI	22	22	123	521	124	52	14	23.7%	10.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.17	+1.6
2029	25	MLB	PHI	25	25	137	578	139	55	15	24.0%	9.5%	2.6%	4.16	4.09	+1.9
2030	26	MLB	PHI	26	26	144	608	147	57	16	24.2%	9.4%	2.6%	4.10	4.07	+2.0
2031	27	MLB	PHI	27	27	147	620	150	59	16	24.2%	9.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.08	+2.0
2032	28	MLB	PHI	27	27	147	619	149	59	16	24.1%	9.5%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+2.0
2033	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	143	605	145	58	16	24.0%	9.6%	2.7%	4.13	4.15	+1.9
2034	30	MLB	PHI	25	25	139	587	140	57	16	23.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.18	4.21	+1.7
2035	31	MLB	PHI	24	24	134	566	134	55	16	23.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.28	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	PHI	23	23	129	543	127	54	16	23.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.32	4.37	+1.4
2037	33	MLB	PHI	22	22	123	519	119	53	16	23.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.47	+1.2
2038	34	MLB	PHI	21	21	117	493	112	51	15	22.7%	10.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	+1.0
2039	35	MLB	PHI	20	20	110	465	103	49	15	22.3%	10.5%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	+0.7
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			52	50	207	929	210	139	17	22.7%	15.0%	1.8%	4.53	4.09	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			50	48	200	899	203	135	16	22.7%	15.0%	1.8%	4.53	4.09	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mavis Graves (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	22.6%	12.1%	2.6%	—	4.18	23.7%	13.7%	365	-0.36	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.85	24.0%	10.3%	102	-0.55	3.85	191	92
Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.18	16.0%	4.2%	319	-0.22	3.35	414	91
Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP-	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.17	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.69	4.10	256	91
Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP-	4.63	20.2%	12.5%	3.0%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.37	2.56	718	91
Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.5%	.313	4.46	17.7%	2.8%	117	-0.05	4.21	212	90
John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP-	4.60	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.38	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.22	4.21	170	90
Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	19.3%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.08	4.01	212	90
Brandon Finnegan L 2026 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	.287	5.02	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.52	3.85	489	89
Will Johnston L 2027 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP-	3.96	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.18	23.6%	9.9%	70	+0.22	3.96	162	88
Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP-	4.06	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.73	20.9%	7.7%	116	-0.33	2.85	221	87
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.42	28.3%	12.6%	63	-1.72	1.94	146	87
Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP-	3.73	22.3%	13.7%	1.4%	.269	3.54	23.3%	14.7%	118	-0.19	3.26	399	87
Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP-	4.76	18.0%	12.8%	2.9%	.290	4.07	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.69	3.72	252	86
Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP-	4.28	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	3.78	20.7%	6.3%	188	-0.50	3.48	284	86
Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.73	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.46	1,369	86
Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.301	3.20	24.3%	17.7%	12	-1.10	3.20	117	85
Travis Ott L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	22	SP-	3.80	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.13	3.67	188	84
Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	18.5%	12.7%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	5.14	101	84
Garrett Schoenle L 2028 · 4.62 FIP	24	SP-	4.62	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.28	21.0%	9.5%	219	-0.34	2.32	304	84
A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	22.8%	10.0%	2.4%	.262	5.75	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.9	$19M	+$15M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.7	$17M	+$12M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.5	$16M	+$9M
Totals		$18M		$107M	+$89M