Mavis Graves — OGILVIE

Mavis Graves P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%21.9%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL3040

CMD4545

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	100%	3.1	18.8%	22.2%	-3.5%	3.3%	7.68	6.17	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	100%	3.1	18.8%	22.2%	-3.5%	3.3%	7.68	6.17	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	11	11	34	163	45	29	4	100%	3.1	27.6%	17.8%	9.8%	2.5%	7.68	4.54	—
2024	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.0%	3.64	3.10	—
2024	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.0%	3.64	3.10	—
2024	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	18	16	84	368	117	36	3	89%	4.7	31.8%	9.8%	22.0%	0.8%	3.64	2.06	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.8%	5.6%	1.9%	4.41	4.36	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	21.3%	15.8%	5.6%	1.9%	4.41	4.36	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	21	21	82	372	103	51	6	100%	3.9	27.7%	13.7%	14.0%	1.6%	4.41	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	30	16	77	336	117	43	12	53%	2.6	27.2%	14.5%	12.7%	4.5%	3.86	5.09	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	30	16	77	336	117	43	12	53%	2.6	27.2%	14.5%	12.7%	4.5%	3.86	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	PHI	16	16	58	254	86	29	12	100%	3.6	33.9%	11.4%	22.4%	4.7%	4.78	4.28	—
2026	22	AA RAW	PHI	14	0	19	82	31	14	0	0%	1.3	37.8%	17.1%	20.7%	0.0%	0.96	2.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	78	331	75	44	9	100%	5.2	22.8%	13.3%	9.5%	2.6%	4.77	4.67	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	80	339	79	41	9	100%	5.7	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.6%	4.58	4.47	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	81	344	81	39	9	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.3%	12.4%	2.6%	4.43	4.34	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	81	344	82	38	9	100%	5.8	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.32	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	80	339	81	38	9	100%	6.2	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.36	4.35	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	78	328	85	35	9	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.17	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	74	314	80	34	9	100%	6.2	25.5%	10.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.30	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	70	295	74	33	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.1%	4.40	4.48	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	65	275	68	31	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.57	4.68	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	60	254	62	30	9	100%	6.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.6%	4.77	4.90	0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	39	165	38	22	5	100%	5.6	22.8%	13.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.87	4.77	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	56	236	55	29	7	100%	5.6	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.8%	4.68	4.57	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	66	279	66	31	8	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.44	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	71	300	72	33	8	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	73	34	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.46	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	78	32	9	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.28	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	69	291	74	31	9	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.8%	14.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.42	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	69	30	9	100%	5.9	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	3.3%	4.52	4.60	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	62	262	65	30	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.6%	4.70	4.81	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	57	241	58	29	9	100%	5.7	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	630	2659	649	303	82	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	206	96	26	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		80	64	277	1239	288	186	31	80%	3.5	23.2%	15.0%	8.2%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	46	200	896	208	135	22	80%	3.5	23.2%	15.0%	8.2%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mavis Graves (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	21.9%	15.2%	2.6%	—	4.49	23.3%	11.1%	240	-0.50	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	86
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	84
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	84
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	83
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	82
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	80
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	79
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	77
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	77
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	76
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	76
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	75
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	73	24.1%	11.8%	1.10	4.51
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22