Justin Thomas Jr.

Justin Thomas Jr.OF Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION343 act + 228 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .300 / .312

PA228

HR5

SB11

K%38

BB%10

BABIP306

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED64

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	54	9	2	1	0	6	19	2	3	3	167	274	241	515	74	257	31	10	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	343	290	58	12	1	9	37	146	15	24	5	200	322	341	663	141	360	43	11	293	82	-7	+3	+0	-2	+10	0.4
YTD	22	A+	HOU	—	343	270	71	16	1	12	57	109	15	24	5	263	418	463	881	200	393	32	17	396	161	+24	+3	+0	-2	+10	3.5
ROS	22	A+	HOU	0%	228	195	37	7	1	5	24	87	7	11	2	189	300	312	612	123	306	38	10	288	79	-5	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.1
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						309	0	0	268	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	HOU	—	344	291	58	12	1	9	37	146	15	24	5	199	321	340	661	141	358	42	11	293	82	-7	+3	+0	-2	+10	0.4
TOT	22	A+	HOU	—	571	485	95	19	2	14	61	233	22	35	7	196	313	329	642	134	337	41	11	291	81	-12	+4	+0	-3	+16	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	35%	581	501	100	20	2	15	60	210	15	18	4	200	304	337	641	138	302	36	10	293	82	-12	+2	+0	-3	+16	0.3
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	609	526	107	21	2	16	63	212	15	18	4	203	306	342	648	139	302	35	10	298	86	-10	+2	+0	-4	+17	0.6
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	623	539	111	22	2	17	64	213	15	18	4	206	307	349	656	143	302	34	10	300	88	-8	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.8
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	622	538	112	22	2	17	64	211	15	17	4	208	310	351	661	143	301	34	10	301	89	-8	+2	+0	-4	+18	0.8
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	617	534	111	22	2	17	64	209	14	17	4	208	309	352	661	144	301	34	10	301	89	-8	+2	+0	-4	+17	0.8
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	609	526	109	21	2	17	64	208	14	16	4	207	310	352	661	144	300	34	11	300	88	-8	+2	-1	-4	+17	0.6
2033	29	MLB	HOU	53%	600	518	106	21	2	16	63	206	14	15	4	205	308	346	653	141	299	34	10	298	87	-9	+1	-1	-4	+17	0.4
2034	30	MLB	HOU	52%	590	509	104	20	2	16	62	204	14	15	3	204	308	346	653	141	298	35	11	296	84	-10	+2	-2	-4	+17	0.3
2035	31	MLB	HOU	52%	579	500	100	19	2	15	61	202	13	14	3	200	303	336	639	136	295	35	11	292	81	-12	+2	-3	-3	+16	-0.0
2027	23	MLB	HOU	35%	201	173	35	7	1	5	21	73	5	6	2	202	307	341	648	139	305	36	10	277	70	-7	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	282	244	51	10	1	8	29	98	7	8	2	209	311	357	667	148	305	35	10	283	75	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	322	278	59	12	1	9	33	110	8	9	2	212	313	360	673	147	305	34	10	286	77	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	337	291	61	12	1	10	35	114	8	9	2	210	311	361	672	151	304	34	10	287	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.0
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	335	289	61	12	1	10	35	114	8	9	2	211	313	363	677	152	304	34	10	287	78	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.0
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	330	284	59	12	1	9	35	112	8	9	2	208	312	352	664	144	304	34	11	286	77	-8	+1	-0	-2	+9	-0.0
2033	29	MLB	HOU	53%	319	275	57	11	1	9	34	109	7	8	2	207	310	353	663	145	302	34	11	285	76	-9	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2034	30	MLB	HOU	52%	309	266	55	11	1	8	33	107	7	8	2	207	310	346	656	139	301	35	11	282	74	-9	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.3
2035	31	MLB	HOU	52%	301	259	52	10	1	8	32	105	7	7	2	201	305	340	645	139	298	35	11	278	71	-10	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2737	2360	490	97	9	76	287	942	65	73	18	208	310	353	663	145	305	34	10	284	75	-76	+7	-4	-16	+78	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	560	116	23	2	18	68	224	15	17	4	207	309	352	661	145	304	34	10	284	75	-18	+2	-1	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	5720	4940	1006	197	20	151	595	1981	138	162	39	204	307	343	650	140	301	35	10	297	85	-95	+17	-7	-34	+162	4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	561	113	22	2	17	68	225	16	18	4	201	305	339	644	137	298	35	10	297	85	-11	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	106	+0	-1	—	—	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,737	74	74	206	305	349	-16	+0	2.4	2.4
	/162	664	18	18	206	305	349	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Thomas Jr. (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	43→48	59→64	63	196/313/329	134	337	14	35	41%	11%	81	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Niko Hulsizer 2019 · A	22	43→29	47→60	51→50	42	209/299/349	140	319	15	12	36%	8%	84	+0.6	207/283/386	179	333	22	8	41%	8%	86	+0.8	194/270/396	201	315	27	12	45%	8%	82	+0.3
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	35	193/236/341	148	280	19	14	38%	5%	54	-1.4	209/272/403	194	297	25	14	37%	7%	86	+0.8	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Romy Gonzalez 2019 · A	22	39→41	47→50	53→55	34	193/243/327	134	308	14	10	41%	6%	53	-1.5	200/254/318	118	309	12	12	37%	6%	56	-1.3	253/296/402	149	335	16	16	28%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Brewer Hicklen 2018 · A	22	46→43	42→55	55→60	37	214/276/325	112	332	8	16	36%	6%	66	-0.6	211/267/351	140	325	16	24	38%	5%	70	-0.3	219/291/395	177	297	25	40	34%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	44→50	51→45	35	182/259/292	110	306	12	11	42%	6%	53	-1.5	199/263/309	110	291	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	187/246/280	93	268	12	5	34%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	39→45	47→55	52→55	40	199/261/337	138	279	13	19	33%	6%	63	-0.8	203/270/332	129	293	11	17	33%	7%	66	-0.6	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	44	44→45	56→55	43	211/290/329	118	311	11	16	33%	8%	74	-0.1	195/266/292	97	301	9	12	36%	7%	54	-1.4	169/241/249	80	256	8	12	35%	7%	31	-1.1
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Alex Castellanos 2009 · A	22	43→49	46→55	58→50	35	215/264/350	135	301	13	18	32%	4%	68	-0.5	217/268/352	135	313	11	15	33%	4%	70	-0.3	226/288/398	173	303	17	15	30%	6%	89	+0.8
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Joe Gray Jr. 2022 · A	22	38→33	49→45	57→50	40	195/271/346	151	289	16	15	37%	7%	71	-0.3	163/227/276	113	266	12	14	41%	6%	34	-2.8	143/203/244	102	233	12	13	43%	6%	14	-3.5
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44→39	45	56→60	41	213/288/344	131	301	12	19	32%	7%	77	+0.1	199/274/319	120	285	13	34	33%	8%	65	-0.7	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→38	43→50	55	35	192/249/294	102	300	11	14	38%	5%	47	-1.9	197/249/320	123	286	14	19	35%	5%	54	-1.4	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→55	57→55	49	219/303/341	122	299	9	19	28%	10%	82	+0.5	220/282/336	116	290	11	21	26%	7%	72	-0.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Travis Demeritte 2017 · A	22	38→44	46→60	53→50	37	180/251/315	136	320	14	11	45%	8%	54	-1.4	196/259/355	159	295	18	7	38%	7%	68	-0.5	205/271/397	192	291	25	7	37%	8%	80	+0.3