Justin Thomas Jr.OF
Asheville Tourists
Age 22
R/R
5'9" / 195 lbs
A+
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2031
wRC+†108
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .278 / .324
PA77
HR1
SB9
K%29
BB%7
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2031
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $10M | $52M | +$42M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 62 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 3 | .167 | .274 | .241 | .515 | .074 | .257 | 31 | 10 | .238 | 40 | -4 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 56 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 0 | .234 | .357 | .468 | .825 | .234 | .381 | 41 | 12 | .342 | 120 | +1 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .211 | .286 | .263 | .549 | .053 | .297 | 29 | 10 | .284 | 76 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | 77 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 9 | 0 | .227 | .338 | .409 | .747 | .182 | .353 | 38 | 12 | .326 | 108 | +1 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB 11% | HOU | 171 | 151 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .225 | .308 | .358 | .665 | .132 | .284 | 25 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB 26% | HOU | 286 | 253 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 1 | .229 | .313 | .379 | .693 | .150 | .285 | 24 | 9 | .312 | 97 | -1 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB 44% | HOU | 356 | 313 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 86 | 5 | 12 | 1 | .233 | .320 | .383 | .703 | .150 | .287 | 24 | 10 | .317 | 100 | +0 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB 59% | HOU | 402 | 354 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 96 | 5 | 14 | 2 | .234 | .321 | .390 | .711 | .155 | .287 | 24 | 10 | .319 | 102 | +1 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB 76% | HOU | 425 | 373 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 2 | .233 | .322 | .383 | .706 | .150 | .287 | 24 | 10 | .319 | 102 | +1 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB 84% | HOU | 435 | 382 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 106 | 6 | 14 | 1 | .233 | .322 | .387 | .709 | .154 | .287 | 24 | 10 | .318 | 101 | +1 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB 90% | HOU | 434 | 381 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 107 | 6 | 13 | 1 | .231 | .320 | .378 | .698 | .147 | .286 | 25 | 10 | .316 | 100 | -0 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 430 | 377 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 107 | 6 | 12 | 1 | .228 | .319 | .374 | .693 | .146 | .285 | 25 | 10 | .312 | 97 | -1 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 420 | 369 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 106 | 5 | 10 | 0 | .225 | .314 | .366 | .680 | .141 | .283 | 25 | 10 | .309 | 94 | -3 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 403 | 354 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 104 | 5 | 8 | 0 | .223 | .312 | .367 | .680 | .144 | .282 | 26 | 10 | .304 | 91 | -4 | +2 | -4 | -2 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 375 | 329 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 99 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .219 | .309 | .353 | .662 | .134 | .280 | 26 | 10 | .298 | 87 | -6 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +11 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 331 | 291 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .216 | .305 | .351 | .655 | .134 | .278 | 27 | 10 | .292 | 82 | -7 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +9 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4551 | 4000 | 908 | 163 | 24 | 122 | 456 | 1140 | 61 | 127 | 13 | .227 | .315 | .371 | .687 | .144 | .285 | 25 | 10 | .310 | 95 | -25 | +20 | -20 | -27 | +129 | 7.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 571 | 129 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 65 | 163 | 9 | 18 | 2 | .226 | .315 | .366 | .681 | .140 | .284 | 25 | 10 | .310 | 95 | -4 | +3 | -3 | -4 | +18 | 1.1 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 62 | 49 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3 | .204 | .371 | .306 | .677 | .102 | .278 | 21 | 18 | .323 | 106 | +0 | -1 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Justin Thomas Jr. (OGILVIE) | 22 | — | — | — | — | .212/.278/.324 | .112 | .290 | 1 | 1 | 29% | 7% | 68 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
●Christopher Morel 2021 · A |
22 | 43→46 | 43→60 | 45→50 | 37 | .214/.254/.324 | .110 | .290 | 10 | 9 | 29% | 4% | 56 | -1.3 | .215/.273/.390 | .175 | .301 | 22 | 14 | 35% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .224/.302/.431 | .208 | .280 | 28 | 10 | 30% | 9% | 102 | +1.8 |
|
●Rainel Rosario 2011 · A |
22 | 42→51 | 45→50 | 46→50 | 44 | .207/.283/.342 | .135 | .296 | 11 | 9 | 32% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .210/.267/.310 | .100 | .310 | 8 | 9 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .253/.308/.402 | .150 | .285 | 19 | 6 | 18% | 7% | 96 | +1.1 |
|
●Edward Olivares 2018 · A |
22 | 42→52 | 47→55 | 51→55 | 39 | .214/.266/.352 | .138 | .266 | 14 | 13 | 25% | 4% | 69 | -0.4 | .223/.265/.352 | .129 | .280 | 13 | 16 | 25% | 4% | 68 | -0.5 | .259/.316/.431 | .172 | .293 | 20 | 16 | 19% | 6% | 108 | +1.4 |
|
●Jonathan India 2019 · A |
22 | 43→51 | 45→50 | 51→50 | 45 | .208/.290/.333 | .125 | .296 | 12 | 10 | 32% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .217/.304/.340 | .123 | .297 | 12 | 10 | 29% | 9% | 83 | +0.6 | .243/.342/.393 | .150 | .294 | 17 | 11 | 22% | 10% | 107 | +1.9 |
|
●Justyn-Henry Malloy 2022 · A |
22 | 46→56 | 45→50 | 48→45 | 47 | .224/.294/.345 | .121 | .300 | 13 | 10 | 29% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .233/.321/.379 | .146 | .324 | 18 | 5 | 31% | 11% | 100 | +1.7 | .234/.340/.391 | .157 | .320 | 18 | 5 | 30% | 12% | 109 | +2.0 |
|
●Alex Call 2017 · A |
22 | 47→48 | 42→50 | 48→50 | 43 | .229/.285/.333 | .104 | .290 | 9 | 12 | 24% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .197/.256/.302 | .105 | .271 | 9 | 8 | 29% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .221/.325/.367 | .147 | .256 | 16 | 17 | 20% | 12% | 99 | +1.2 |
|
●Sean Bouchard 2019 · A |
23 | 38→44 | 44→55 | 48→50 | 37 | .196/.244/.314 | .117 | .275 | 12 | 13 | 33% | 5% | 50 | -1.7 | .201/.254/.332 | .131 | .296 | 13 | 10 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .223/.323/.415 | .191 | .292 | 21 | 16 | 29% | 11% | 106 | +1.0 |
|
●Aaron Altherr 2013 · A |
22 | 40→50 | 41→55 | 53→50 | 36 | .200/.241/.299 | .099 | .277 | 8 | 17 | 31% | 4% | 44 | -2.1 | .215/.263/.344 | .129 | .306 | 11 | 15 | 32% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .244/.318/.420 | .176 | .303 | 17 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 104 | +1.5 |
|
●Aristides Aquino 2016 · A |
22 | 39→40 | 46→65 | 52→50 | 35 | .201/.236/.333 | .133 | .265 | 13 | 10 | 30% | 3% | 51 | -1.7 | .200/.241/.349 | .149 | .267 | 17 | 8 | 31% | 4% | 58 | -1.2 | .218/.283/.452 | .234 | .267 | 35 | 9 | 33% | 7% | 98 | +1.0 |
|
●Jahmai Jones 2021 · AA |
23 | 40→50 | 40→55 | 48→50 | 44 | .197/.258/.292 | .095 | .262 | 8 | 12 | 27% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .212/.284/.336 | .124 | .283 | 12 | 13 | 28% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .250/.346/.432 | .182 | .322 | 17 | 18 | 26% | 11% | 119 | +1.6 |
|
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A |
22 | 42→41 | 46→55 | 49→45 | 44 | .212/.273/.344 | .133 | .277 | 13 | 7 | 28% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .209/.287/.363 | .154 | .271 | 17 | 6 | 28% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .193/.280/.360 | .167 | .251 | 20 | 6 | 30% | 10% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
●Nick Ahmed 2012 · A |
22 | 43→53 | 39→55 | 50→55 | 45 | .210/.267/.297 | .088 | .269 | 6 | 13 | 24% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .217/.262/.301 | .084 | .277 | 5 | 20 | 22% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .244/.306/.411 | .168 | .278 | 18 | 7 | 19% | 8% | 98 | +1.3 |
|
✕José Osuna 2015 · A |
22 | 44→54 | 43→55 | 46→45 | 41 | .220/.260/.332 | .112 | .270 | 10 | 8 | 23% | 5% | 61 | -1.0 | .238/.276/.367 | .129 | .292 | 12 | 6 | 22% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .250/.298/.418 | .168 | .286 | 17 | 4 | 19% | 6% | 98 | +1.0 |
|
●Royce Lewis 2022 · AA |
23 | 40→49 | 41→60 | 49→50 | 38 | .199/.246/.298 | .099 | .280 | 8 | 14 | 31% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .263/.322/.460 | .197 | .315 | 25 | 17 | 24% | 7% | 121 | +3.2 | .261/.323/.483 | .222 | .300 | 31 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 123 | +1.6 |
|
●Johnathan Rodríguez 2022 · A |
22 | 49→52 | 43→60 | 47→45 | 39 | .234/.281/.342 | .108 | .326 | 10 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .234/.284/.404 | .170 | .340 | 21 | 5 | 36% | 6% | 91 | +1.1 | .250/.316/.429 | .179 | .345 | 24 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 107 | +1.9 |
|
●Connor Norby 2022 · A |
22 | 48→49 | 43→55 | 49→50 | 45 | .228/.300/.340 | .113 | .324 | 10 | 11 | 31% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .238/.298/.405 | .167 | .308 | 20 | 11 | 28% | 7% | 97 | +1.5 | .239/.300/.413 | .174 | .310 | 21 | 11 | 29% | 7% | 97 | +1.5 |
|
●Lane Thomas 2018 · A |
22 | 41→51 | 41→55 | 48→55 | 39 | .192/.258/.289 | .097 | .318 | 8 | 13 | 40% | 8% | 50 | -1.8 | .213/.272/.363 | .150 | .298 | 17 | 14 | 33% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .248/.312/.427 | .179 | .308 | 21 | 13 | 25% | 7% | 107 | +2.0 |
|
✕Joe Benson 2010 · A |
22 | 47→50 | 40→60 | 48→50 | 43 | .219/.297/.314 | .095 | .322 | 7 | 15 | 32% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .227/.297/.402 | .175 | .313 | 19 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 96 | +1.5 | .218/.286/.407 | .189 | .295 | 20 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 90 | +0.8 |
|
●James McCann 2012 · A |
22 | 41→51 | 42→50 | 49→45 | 39 | .203/.260/.306 | .103 | .288 | 9 | 7 | 32% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .223/.261/.310 | .087 | .291 | 6 | 6 | 24% | 4% | 55 | -1.4 | .254/.315/.415 | .161 | .331 | 20 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 104 | +1.1 |
|
✕Akil Baddoo 2021 · A |
22 | 41→51 | 43→55 | 55 | 44 | .198/.268/.314 | .116 | .295 | 9 | 14 | 34% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .234/.308/.374 | .140 | .313 | 14 | 21 | 27% | 10% | 92 | +1.2 | .232/.314/.375 | .143 | .300 | 15 | 24 | 26% | 11% | 91 | +0.8 |