Justin Thomas Jr.

OF Asheville Tourists
Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#820ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202521AHOU62.204/.371/.3060354—.170/.290/.245
202622AA/A+HOU537.248/.410/.442194182—.193/.311/.340
2027PROJMLE23MLBHOU1.205/.312/.34800890.0
2028PROJ38% MLB24MLBHOU187.209/.314/.35856920.2
2029PROJ55% MLB25MLBHOU283.212/.316/.36488940.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Chase%99
BB%96
wOBA72
wRC+70
Speed56
K%39
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%
CompsTim Tawa (age 23) · Matt McLain (age 23) · Jonny DeLuca (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†89
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .312 / .348
PA1
HR0
K%30
BB%11
BABIP279
ISO150
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.40.30.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 51
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER51
scouting grade only
EYE64
scouting grade only
SPEED67
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-1$0.4M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202521 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6249 10310 11132 33 204371306677 102278 2118 323 54 — — — — — —
202622 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 9167 15202 17245 71 224416343759 119302 2619 354 90 — — — — — —
202622 A+Asheville Tourists — 446352 8920117 7713916 346 253409460869 207365 3117 391 80 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202521 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6253 9210 7182 33 170290245536 75250 2911 248 54 — — — — — —
202622 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 9172 15202 12295 71 208360319679 111276 3213 301 90 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 446384 7315114 4518216 346 190301344645 154305 4110 286 80 — — — — — —
202521 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6253 9210 7182 33 170290245536 75257 2911 248 54 — — — — — —
202521 A RAWFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6249 10310 11132 33 204371306677 102278 2118 323 54 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLE2 teams — 537455 8817116 5821121 417 193313341653 147312 3911 289 81 — — — — — —
202622 A+ RAW2 teams — 537419 10422119 9416321 417 248410442852 193354 3018 385 81 — — — — — —
202521 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6253 9210 7182 33 170290245536 75250 2911 248 54 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLE2 teams — 537453 8817116 5821121 417 194313342655 148300 3911 289 81 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202521 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 6253 9210 7182 33 170290245536 75250 2911 248 54 — — — — — —
202622 A+ MLE2 teams — 537453 8817116 5821121 417 194313342655 148300 3911 289 81 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202723 MLB MLEHOU 0% 525450 9217215 5716113 173 203310347656 144274 3111 299 89 -7 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202723 MLB CTXHOU 0% 11 0000 000 00 205312348660 144279 00 301 89 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202824 MLB MLEHOU 38% 492424 8716214 5314712 153 207313356669 149276 3011 304 92 -5 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.5
202925 MLB MLEHOU 55% 510439 9217215 5415112 153 210314362676 152277 3011 306 94 -4 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.6
203026 MLB MLEHOU 64% 516444 9518216 5515112 153 212314365679 153278 2911 307 94 -4 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.6
203127 MLB MLEHOU 66% 515444 9418215 5414912 153 212314364678 152278 2910 307 94 -4 +2 +0 -3 +11 0.6
203228 MLB MLEHOU 67% 510441 9418215 5314711 133 212312362674 150278 2910 305 93 -5 +1 -1 -3 +11 0.4
203329 MLB MLEHOU 66% 501433 9117214 5214611 123 210309355664 146276 2910 301 90 -6 +1 -1 -3 +11 0.2
203430 MLB MLEHOU 71% 430374 7614112 441279 102 206305347652 141274 3010 297 87 -7 +1 -2 -3 +9 -0.1
202824 MLB CTXHOU 38% 187160 34715 20565 61 209314358672 149280 3011 305 92 -2 +1 +0 -1 +4 0.2
202925 MLB CTXHOU 55% 283244 511018 30847 82 212316364680 152282 3011 308 94 -2 +1 +0 -2 +6 0.3
203026 MLB CTXHOU 64% 328282 6112110 35968 102 214316367683 153282 2911 309 94 -2 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.4
203127 MLB CTXHOU 66% 338291 6212110 36988 102 214316366682 152282 2911 308 94 -2 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.4
203228 MLB CTXHOU 67% 341295 6413110 36987 92 214314364678 149282 2911 307 93 -3 +1 -0 -2 +7 0.3
203329 MLB CTXHOU 66% 329285 601219 34967 82 212311357668 145280 2910 303 90 -4 +1 -1 -2 +7 0.1
203430 MLB CTXHOU 71% 305265 551118 31906 72 208307349656 140278 3010 298 87 -5 +1 -1 -2 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21111822 38777760 22261848 5813 212314361675 149283 2911 305 90 -20 +6 -3 -13 +46 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650561 11924218 6819015 184 212314358672 146283 2910 305 90 -6 +2 -1 -4 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 42833687 76314416123 4531311107 14631 207312355666 148281 3111 301 90 -36 +12 -4 -22 +80 3.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650560 11622219 6919916 225 207312355667 148281 3111 301 90 -6 +2 -1 -4 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 446 PAwOBA .382 → .286 (−96)K% 31.2% → 40.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.17%÷1.000×1.310——40.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.04%÷1.000×0.600—×0.99810.20%
HBP% /PA3.59%—×0.770—×0.9982.76%
Singles /BIP23.94%÷1.000×0.870×1.000×0.99820.80%
Doubles /BIP9.39%÷1.000×0.780×1.000×0.9987.31%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.000×0.850×1.000×0.9980.40%
Home runs /BIP7.98%÷1.000×0.880—×0.9987.01%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .382 → .286; ISO .207 → .171; BABIP .365 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 91 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−53)K% 26.4% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.37%÷1.000×1.220——32.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.68%÷1.000×0.700—×1.02713.43%
HBP% /PA5.49%—×0.870—×1.0274.91%
Singles /BIP25.58%÷1.000×0.920×0.987×1.02723.86%
Doubles /BIP4.65%÷1.000×0.840×0.987×1.0273.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.987×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP4.65%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0273.82%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .119 → .104; BABIP .302 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 62 PAwOBA .316 → .248 (−69)K% 21.0% → 28.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.97%÷0.996×1.360——28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.74%÷1.072×0.690——11.42%
HBP% /PA3.23%—×0.780——2.52%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷0.979×0.920——15.66%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.035×0.830——6.69%
Triples /BIP2.78%÷0.953×0.910——2.65%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.005×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .316 → .248; ISO .102 → .087; BABIP .278 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).