Justin Thomas Jr.

Justin Thomas Jr.OF Asheville Tourists

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION532 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP301

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	105	+0	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	54	9	2	1	0	6	19	2	3	3	167	274	241	515	74	250	31	10	240	49	-4	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	54	9	2	1	0	6	19	2	3	3	167	274	241	515	74	257	31	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	49	10	3	1	0	11	13	2	3	3	204	371	306	677	102	278	21	18	323	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	54	9	2	1	0	6	19	2	3	3	167	274	241	515	74	250	31	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	62	54	9	2	1	0	6	19	2	3	3	167	274	241	515	74	250	31	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	532	447	88	17	1	15	61	212	21	41	7	197	321	340	661	143	327	40	11	292	84	-10	+5	+0	-3	+12	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	HOU	—	446	352	89	20	1	17	77	139	16	34	6	253	409	460	869	207	365	31	17	391	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	HOU	—	86	63	15	2	0	2	16	21	5	7	1	238	429	365	794	127	310	24	19	367	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	HOU	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		299	33	11	300	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	HOU	—	541	455	89	17	1	15	62	215	21	42	7	196	320	336	656	141	325	40	11	292	84	-11	+6	+0	-3	+12	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	35%	575	491	101	20	2	16	64	196	15	21	4	206	316	352	668	147	298	34	11	302	90	-7	+3	+0	-3	+12	0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	609	522	110	21	2	18	67	201	15	21	4	211	318	362	680	151	298	33	11	307	94	-4	+3	+0	-4	+13	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	626	537	114	22	2	18	69	202	15	20	4	212	319	361	680	149	298	32	11	310	96	-3	+2	+0	-4	+14	0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	625	536	115	22	2	19	69	200	15	19	4	215	321	369	690	155	297	32	11	311	97	-3	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	620	531	114	22	2	19	69	199	15	19	4	215	322	371	693	156	297	32	11	311	97	-3	+2	+0	-4	+13	1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	612	524	111	21	2	18	69	197	14	18	3	212	320	363	682	151	297	32	11	310	96	-3	+2	-1	-4	+13	0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	603	516	109	21	2	18	68	196	14	17	3	211	319	364	684	153	295	33	11	308	95	-4	+2	-1	-4	+13	0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	593	507	106	20	2	17	67	194	14	15	3	209	318	357	675	148	294	33	11	305	93	-5	+2	-2	-4	+13	0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	582	498	101	19	1	16	65	192	14	14	3	203	312	341	653	139	291	33	11	301	90	-7	+2	-3	-3	+13	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	407	349	70	13	1	11	46	136	9	10	2	201	309	338	648	138	287	33	11	296	86	-7	+1	-4	-2	+9	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	35%	199	170	35	7	1	5	22	68	5	7	1	206	315	347	662	141	300	34	11	283	90	-2	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	282	242	51	10	1	8	31	93	7	10	2	211	318	360	677	149	300	33	11	289	94	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	324	277	59	12	1	9	36	105	8	10	2	213	321	361	682	148	300	32	11	292	96	-2	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	339	291	62	12	1	10	37	109	8	11	2	213	318	364	683	151	300	32	11	293	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	336	288	62	12	1	10	37	108	8	10	2	215	321	368	689	153	299	32	11	293	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	332	284	61	12	1	10	37	107	8	10	2	215	322	370	692	155	299	32	11	292	96	-2	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	320	273	57	11	1	9	36	104	8	9	2	209	319	355	674	147	298	32	11	290	95	-2	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	311	266	56	11	1	9	35	102	7	8	2	211	318	361	679	150	296	33	11	288	93	-3	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	303	259	53	10	1	8	34	100	7	8	1	205	313	344	657	139	293	33	11	284	90	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	211	180	35	7	0	5	24	71	5	5	1	194	306	317	623	122	290	34	11	279	86	-3	+1	-2	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2957	2530	531	104	9	83	329	967	71	88	17	210	318	357	674	147	299	33	11	289	93	-22	+11	-5	-18	+64	3.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	556	117	23	2	18	72	213	16	19	4	210	318	356	674	146	301	33	11	289	93	-5	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5923	5073	1061	203	19	170	660	1935	142	178	37	209	317	357	674	148	297	33	11	306	93	-45	+21	-10	-35	+127	5.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	557	116	22	2	19	72	212	16	20	4	208	316	357	674	149	295	33	11	306	93	-5	+2	-1	-4	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	4.5	2,957	85	87	210	315	359	-18	+0	5.2	4.8
/162	664	19	20	-4.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Thomas Jr. (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	44→49	62→67	65	197/313/335	138	299	4	9	35%	11%	89	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45→44	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	211/273/334	123	271	14	11	27%	7%	72	-0.7	224/287/394	170	271	21	14	25%	7%	89	+0.4
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	80	-0.1	211/270/323	112	266	10	17	24%	7%	68	-1.0	202/249/302	100	249	8	18	21%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	216/275/390	173	253	21	15	24%	7%	85	+0.2	224/289/407	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+0.9	221/290/400	179	249	21	19	21%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Mario Lisson 2006 · A	22	46→49	43→50	57→55	49	219/303/341	122	299	9	19	28%	10%	84	+0.2	220/282/334	114	289	10	21	26%	7%	75	-0.5	230/303/360	129	300	15	8	27%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→45	58→60	54	211/315/327	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	86	+0.3	215/313/338	123	273	13	33	24%	11%	88	+0.5	211/310/338	127	264	13	40	24%	11%	84	+0.2
✕Johan Lopez 2022 · A	22	43	44→45	56→55	44	209/290/327	118	301	11	16	32%	8%	76	-0.4	195/268/294	99	299	9	12	35%	8%	61	-1.5	172/246/253	81	260	7	12	34%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Niko Hulsizer 2019 · A	22	43→29	47→60	51→50	42	209/299/349	140	319	15	12	36%	8%	86	+0.3	204/282/377	173	332	21	8	42%	8%	86	+0.3	193/269/382	189	315	25	12	44%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	46	44→45	55	46	225/303/346	121	300	11	14	27%	8%	86	+0.3	225/283/333	108	304	9	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2018 · AA	22	41→38	45→50	53→55	45	208/273/335	127	264	12	20	26%	7%	72	-0.7	197/274/326	129	275	13	16	31%	8%	71	-0.8	175/261/293	118	246	12	18	32%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Cooper Bowman 2022 · A	22	44→43	45	56→60	41	213/288/344	131	301	12	19	32%	7%	80	-0.2	199/275/314	115	285	11	34	32%	8%	68	-1.0	202/274/318	116	272	11	40	28%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→45	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	97	+1.1	216/320/366	150	270	16	7	25%	8%	98	+1.2	214/321/360	146	266	16	7	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Joe Gray Jr. 2022 · A	22	39→34	50→45	57→50	40	198/274/355	157	293	17	15	37%	8%	78	-0.3	168/230/279	111	268	12	14	40%	6%	43	-2.8	148/207/248	99	237	12	13	41%	6%	26	-3.4
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→51	48→50	54→55	46	237/301/379	142	295	16	14	25%	8%	93	+0.8	207/275/323	116	264	10	20	24%	7%	70	-0.9	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
●Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	40→50	49→50	53→60	43	206/265/356	150	272	16	14	30%	7%	74	-0.6	220/270/357	137	283	15	22	27%	6%	75	-0.5	266/329/370	104	332	7	30	21%	8%	98	+0.9
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→35	41→45	58→50	48	207/287/310	103	275	7	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	186/253/287	101	260	10	9	31%	7%	53	-2.1	169/236/259	90	237	10	7	31%	7%	38	-2.3
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→52	46→55	59→55	39	213/256/347	134	267	12	15	26%	4%	68	-1.0	239/275/393	154	305	16	22	27%	4%	85	+0.2	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	40→50	44→45	54→60	50	202/283/312	110	254	12	20	25%	9%	71	-0.8	236/296/330	94	314	8	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	261/318/385	124	324	11	31	22%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	36	49→50	54→50	37	192/251/336	144	277	17	14	36%	6%	64	-1.3	200/259/334	134	299	16	13	36%	7%	67	-1.1	181/245/299	117	275	13	12	37%	7%	50	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps