Max Wagner
3B Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+2 orgs | 93 | .146/.247/.256 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | .130/.204/.236 |
| 2025 | 23 | AABAL | 347 | .218/.302/.339 | 5 | 7 | 49 | — | .192/.256/.281 |
| 2026 | 24 | AATEX | 324 | .249/.337/.523 | 21 | 3 | 74 | — | .186/.257/.376 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBTEX | 4 | .188/.255/.340 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBTEX | 71 | .191/.259/.343 | 2 | 1 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 167 | 333 | 214 | 26 | 0 | 143 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 62 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 410 | 438 | 847 | 188 | 314 | 21 | 15 | 378 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 119 | 111 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 303 | 414 | 717 | 162 | 338 | 29 | 6 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 360 | 299 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 90 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 234 | 359 | 401 | 760 | 167 | 297 | 25 | 14 | 342 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 72 | 64 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 109 | 208 | 156 | 365 | 47 | 176 | 40 | 10 | 182 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 21 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 381 | 611 | 992 | 333 | 364 | 29 | 14 | 423 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 307 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 106 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 218 | 302 | 339 | 641 | 121 | 315 | 31 | 10 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 285 | 71 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 32 | 112 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 249 | 337 | 523 | 860 | 274 | 329 | 35 | 10 | 375 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 167 | 333 | 195 | 37 | 0 | 127 | -28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 62 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 361 | 412 | 772 | 176 | 289 | 27 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 119 | 113 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 230 | 269 | 354 | 623 | 124 | 339 | 35 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 360 | 318 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 120 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 186 | 275 | 333 | 608 | 148 | 248 | 33 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 72 | 66 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 167 | 136 | 303 | 45 | 173 | 50 | 7 | 133 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 21 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 579 | 912 | 316 | 286 | 38 | 10 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 317 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 124 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 192 | 256 | 281 | 537 | 88 | 300 | 36 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 295 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 137 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 257 | 376 | 633 | 190 | 279 | 42 | 7 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 81 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 316 | 348 | 664 | 130 | 298 | 28 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 81 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 354 | 364 | 718 | 136 | 286 | 22 | 11 | 323 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 431 | 84 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 162 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 195 | 271 | 329 | 600 | 135 | 280 | 34 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 410 | 98 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 124 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 239 | 345 | 405 | 749 | 166 | 308 | 26 | 12 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 194 | 188 | 382 | 71 | 225 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 93 | 82 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 247 | 256 | 503 | 110 | 222 | 38 | 11 | 237 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 317 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 124 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 192 | 256 | 281 | 537 | 88 | 304 | 36 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 307 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 106 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 218 | 302 | 339 | 641 | 121 | 315 | 31 | 10 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 295 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 137 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 186 | 257 | 376 | 633 | 190 | 280 | 42 | 7 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 285 | 71 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 32 | 112 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 249 | 337 | 523 | 860 | 274 | 329 | 35 | 10 | 375 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 81 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 316 | 338 | 654 | 127 | 267 | 28 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 431 | 84 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 162 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 195 | 271 | 329 | 600 | 135 | 271 | 34 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 194 | 188 | 382 | 71 | 199 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 317 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 124 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 192 | 256 | 281 | 537 | 88 | 300 | 36 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 293 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 137 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 257 | 379 | 636 | 191 | 279 | 42 | 7 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 93 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 194 | 188 | 382 | 71 | 199 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 347 | 317 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 124 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 192 | 256 | 281 | 537 | 88 | 300 | 36 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 324 | 293 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 137 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 257 | 379 | 636 | 191 | 279 | 42 | 7 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 374 | 340 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 145 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 187 | 254 | 332 | 586 | 145 | 280 | 39 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -16 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 255 | 340 | 595 | 151 | 280 | 50 | 0 | 266 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 31% | 228 | 207 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 87 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 190 | 257 | 336 | 593 | 146 | 280 | 38 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -9 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 31% | 71 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 259 | 343 | 602 | 152 | 280 | 38 | 7 | 269 | 66 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 71 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 239 | 292 | 532 | 123 | 250 | 38 | 7 | 269 | 60 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 46 | 247 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 168 | 238 | 289 | 528 | 121 | 248 | 38 | 7 | 269 | 60 | -26 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1751 | 1585 | 299 | 61 | 11 | 44 | 129 | 654 | 24 | 47 | 19 | 189 | 260 | 324 | 584 | 136 | 285 | 37 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -18 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +9 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 111 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 243 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 189 | 260 | 323 | 584 | 134 | 286 | 37 | 7 | 256 | 60 | -27 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 324 PAwOBA .364 → .277 (−87)K% 34.6% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 18.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 9.69% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .364 → .277; ISO .274 → .203; BABIP .329 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 347 PAwOBA .283 → .240 (−44)K% 30.5% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.55% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 20.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 7.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.49% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .283 → .240; ISO .121 → .093; BABIP .315 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 72 PAwOBA .178 → .133 (−46)K% 40.3% → 50.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.28% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 50.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 16.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .178 → .133; ISO .047 → .026; BABIP .176 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 21 PAwOBA .412 → .299 (−113)K% 28.6% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 13.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 6.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .412 → .299; ISO .333 → .251; BABIP .364 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 360 PAwOBA .337 → .262 (−74)K% 25.0% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.17% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.57% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.67% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .337 → .262; ISO .167 → .150; BABIP .297 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 119 PAwOBA .309 → .262 (−47)K% 28.6% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 7.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×1.024 | ×1.042 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .309 → .262; ISO .162 → .118; BABIP .338 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 62 PAwOBA .375 → .313 (−62)K% 21.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.97% | ÷1.061 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.52% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 5.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 4.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.128 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .375 → .313; ISO .188 → .151; BABIP .314 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 19 PAwOBA .147 → .127 (−19)K% 26.3% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 21.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .147 → .127; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .214 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).