Will Wilson
3B Tacoma Rainiers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AASF | 460 | .216/.302/.296 | 5 | 6 | 40 | — | .192/.255/.252 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAACLE | 292 | .246/.326/.435 | 11 | 4 | 61 | — | .201/.261/.327 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBCLE | 91 | .192/.267/.244 | 0 | 2 | 39 | -0.5 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAASEA | 61 | .314/.417/.431 | 1 | 2 | 99 | — | .278/.350/.389 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 29 | MLBSEA | 34 | .206/.270/.301 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 30 | MLBSEA | 85 | .204/.269/.298 | 1 | 1 | 62 | -0.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 221 | 196 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 281 | 306 | 587 | 117 | 291 | 37 | 10 | 271 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 224 | 195 | 49 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 251 | 342 | 497 | 840 | 246 | 298 | 25 | 11 | 365 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 74 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 243 | 299 | 542 | 134 | 196 | 26 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 250 | 242 | 492 | 61 | 316 | 39 | 6 | 231 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 219 | 191 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 65 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 324 | 445 | 769 | 220 | 272 | 30 | 13 | 342 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | — | 34 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 588 | 750 | 1.338 | 250 | 684 | 24 | 12 | 577 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 340 | 299 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 85 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 308 | 408 | 716 | 174 | 278 | 25 | 9 | 312 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 156 | 144 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 276 | 354 | 630 | 139 | 236 | 19 | 6 | 284 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 100 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 303 | 224 | 527 | 35 | 267 | 26 | 10 | 255 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 360 | 317 | 71 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 70 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 224 | 301 | 315 | 617 | 91 | 269 | 19 | 9 | 277 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | — | 91 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 51 | 341 | 37 | 8 | 228 | 39 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 292 | 260 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 65 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 246 | 326 | 435 | 761 | 188 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 338 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 51 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 314 | 417 | 431 | 848 | 118 | 405 | 23 | 15 | 378 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 91 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 51 | 341 | 37 | 8 | 228 | 40 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 221 | 204 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 157 | 222 | 245 | 467 | 88 | 275 | 44 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 224 | 201 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 184 | 261 | 358 | 619 | 174 | 231 | 31 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 36 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 194 | 206 | 400 | 59 | 307 | 47 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 219 | 200 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 195 | 265 | 370 | 635 | 175 | 264 | 37 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 34 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 367 | 441 | 567 | 1.008 | 200 | 515 | 32 | 6 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 340 | 308 | 66 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 94 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 269 | 341 | 610 | 127 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 156 | 147 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 237 | 299 | 536 | 109 | 226 | 23 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 100 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 253 | 182 | 434 | 23 | 238 | 29 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 360 | 328 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 83 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 256 | 271 | 527 | 70 | 245 | 23 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | — | 91 | 78 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 267 | 244 | 511 | 51 | 341 | 37 | 8 | 226 | 39 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 292 | 269 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 81 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 201 | 261 | 327 | 588 | 126 | 258 | 28 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 350 | 389 | 739 | 111 | 363 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 519 | 473 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 196 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 173 | 244 | 309 | 552 | 135 | 257 | 38 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 519 | 458 | 97 | 25 | 2 | 17 | 52 | 156 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 212 | 302 | 386 | 688 | 175 | 279 | 30 | 10 | 308 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 289 | 263 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 202 | 273 | 350 | 623 | 148 | 299 | 38 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 289 | 252 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 87 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 250 | 346 | 452 | 798 | 202 | 329 | 30 | 12 | 356 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 455 | 94 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 129 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 259 | 327 | 586 | 121 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 443 | 101 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 114 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 298 | 391 | 688 | 163 | 263 | 23 | 8 | 303 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 416 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 112 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 192 | 255 | 252 | 507 | 60 | 250 | 24 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 402 | 87 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 96 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 216 | 302 | 296 | 598 | 80 | 269 | 21 | 10 | 273 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 347 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 263 | 308 | 571 | 110 | 274 | 30 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 383 | 338 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 99 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 234 | 313 | 391 | 704 | 157 | 297 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 350 | 389 | 739 | 111 | 378 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 51 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 314 | 417 | 431 | 848 | 118 | 405 | 23 | 15 | 378 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 519 | 470 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 196 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 174 | 244 | 311 | 554 | 136 | 253 | 38 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 289 | 261 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 203 | 273 | 352 | 626 | 149 | 299 | 38 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 461 | 94 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 129 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 204 | 259 | 323 | 582 | 119 | 252 | 26 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 422 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 112 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 190 | 255 | 249 | 504 | 59 | 243 | 24 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 350 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 197 | 263 | 306 | 568 | 109 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 55 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 350 | 382 | 732 | 109 | 363 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 422 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 112 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 190 | 255 | 249 | 504 | 59 | 243 | 24 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 350 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 115 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 197 | 263 | 306 | 568 | 109 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 250 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 61 | 55 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 350 | 382 | 732 | 109 | 363 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 45% | 180 | 163 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 272 | 305 | 576 | 97 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 45% | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 270 | 301 | 571 | 95 | 272 | 26 | 6 | 259 | 63 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 48% | 179 | 162 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 96 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 48% | 85 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 269 | 298 | 567 | 94 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 258 | 62 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 176 | 156 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 263 | 256 | 520 | 64 | 296 | 32 | 7 | 242 | 56 | -10 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +4 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 111 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 48 | 211 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 193 | 263 | 259 | 521 | 66 | 296 | 32 | 7 | 242 | 56 | -38 | +2 | -14 | +6 | +14 | -3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2462 | 2239 | 442 | 80 | 6 | 53 | 169 | 746 | 25 | 31 | 13 | 197 | 261 | 310 | 571 | 112 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -18 | +1 | -5 | +2 | +7 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 197 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 198 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 113 | 269 | 30 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +1 | -10 | +4 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 61 PAwOBA .375 → .314 (−61)K% 23.0% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 29.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.88% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .375 → .314; ISO .118 → .092; BABIP .405 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 292 PAwOBA .330 → .258 (−72)K% 22.3% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.26% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.59% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 19.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.064 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.003 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.64% | ÷1.093 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .330 → .258; ISO .188 → .129; BABIP .286 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 360 PAwOBA .272 → .231 (−40)K% 19.4% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.67% | ÷1.110 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.062 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .272 → .231; ISO .091 → .070; BABIP .269 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 100 PAwOBA .252 → .214 (−38)K% 26.0% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .252 → .214; ISO .035 → .028; BABIP .267 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 340 PAwOBA .307 → .267 (−40)K% 25.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.12% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.07% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.07% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.16% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .307 → .267; ISO .174 → .133; BABIP .278 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 156 PAwOBA .276 → .240 (−36)K% 18.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.59% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.41% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.13% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 18.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 2.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .276 → .240; ISO .139 → .118; BABIP .236 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 219 PAwOBA .331 → .274 (−57)K% 29.7% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.68% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.84% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 20.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 8.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .331 → .274; ISO .220 → .178; BABIP .272 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 36 PAwOBA .225 → .188 (−38)K% 38.9% → 47.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.89% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 21.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .225 → .188; ISO .061 → .047; BABIP .316 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).