Aaron Sabato

1B St. Paul Saints
Age 28 R/R 6'0" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%30%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AA/AMIN373.199/.309/.33610840—.154/.239/.267
202526AAA/AA/AMIN449.261/.330/.48123168—.209/.263/.349
202627AAAMIN470.273/.351/.52825588—.226/.287/.405
2027PROJ30% MLB28MLBMIN46.224/.283/.3882087-0.1
2028PROJ39% MLB29MLBMIN83.222/.281/.3823185-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV93
Speed48
Chase%38
K%37
Z-Con%36
BB%32
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsKyle Jensen (age 28) · Mike Bianucci (age 28) · Brett Carroll (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†87
AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .283 / .388
PA46
HR2
K%33
BB%7
BABIP300
ISO190
MLB%30%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER60
scouting grade only
EYE30
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 9775 19308 19321 00 2534116131.024 360297 3320 430 116 — — — — — —
202122 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 367286 5415011 731177 10 189366357723 168270 3220 337 51 — — — — — —
202223 AAWichita Wind Surge — 9984 15405 10313 20 179289405693 226200 3110 305 47 — — — — — —
202223 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 348288 6513017 491118 21 226354448802 222294 3214 356 71 — — — — — —
202324 AAWichita Wind Surge — 319272 6019112 421033 22 221331430761 210302 3213 338 65 — — — — — —
202324 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 7565 14307 9271 00 215320585905 369226 3612 387 148 — — — — — —
202425 AAWichita Wind Surge — 350306 6314010 381045 82 206304350653 144275 3011 298 42 — — — — — —
202425 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 2315 1000 890 00 6739167458 167 3935 282 16 — — — — — —
202526 AAASt. Paul Saints — 264245 607114 15831 00 245291453744 208305 316 323 54 — — — — — —
202526 AAWichita Wind Surge — 163141 431109 20422 10 305399574973 270378 2612 424 101 — — — — — —
202526 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 2217 2000 341 00 118286118403 143 1814 211 -2 — — — — — —
202627 AAASt. Paul Saints — 470417 11429125 411199 50 273351528879 254322 259 382 88 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 9781 16207 13441 00 198316481797 284261 4513 339 116 — — — — — —
202122 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 367307 411208 521637 10 134273251524 117232 4414 244 51 — — — — — —
202223 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 9987 12304 7403 20 138227310537 172169 407 237 47 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 348303 5311013 341428 21 175275340615 165256 4110 273 71 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 319283 511718 311233 22 180268332600 152279 3910 264 65 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 350317 511109 271325 82 161238281519 120234 388 231 42 — — — — — —
202425 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 2318 1000 5120 00 5626156316 136 5222 192 16 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 264250 51617 101011 00 204238320558 116301 384 248 54 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEWichita Wind Surge — 163147 34807 14542 10 231307429735 197319 339 317 101 — — — — — —
202526 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 2218 2000 251 00 111238111349 123 239 165 -2 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 470430 9724117 281439 50 226287405692 179289 306 299 88 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE2 teams — 464389 5714015 642068 10 147280298578 152246 4414 264 65 — — — — — —
202122 A RAW2 teams — 464361 7318019 921498 10 202375410785 208276 3220 356 65 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLE2 teams — 447389 6514017 4218111 41 167267334601 167245 409 265 66 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAW2 teams — 447372 8017022 5914211 41 215339438778 223272 3213 344 66 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLE2 teams — 394350 622119 381524 22 177265320585 143277 3910 264 65 — — — — — —
202324 AA RAW2 teams — 394337 7422119 511304 22 220329460789 240289 3313 347 65 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 373335 511109 321445 82 152237266502 113230 399 229 41 — — — — — —
202425 AA RAW2 teams — 373321 6414010 461135 82 199309336646 137271 3012 297 41 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE3 teams — 449415 8714114 261614 10 210263349612 140299 366 269 68 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAW3 teams — 449403 10518123 381294 10 261330481812 221322 298 354 68 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 470430 9724117 281439 50 226287405692 179293 306 299 88 — — — — — —
202627 AAA RAWSt. Paul Saints — 470417 11429125 411199 50 273351528879 254322 259 382 88 — — — — — —
202122 A MLE2 teams — 464389 5714015 642068 10 147280298578 152238 4414 264 65 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLE2 teams — 447391 6514017 4218111 41 166267332599 166237 409 265 66 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLE2 teams — 394349 622119 381524 22 178265321586 143279 3910 264 65 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 373333 511109 321445 82 153237267504 114228 399 229 41 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE3 teams — 449416 8714114 261614 10 209263349611 139299 366 269 68 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 470430 9724117 281439 50 226287405692 179289 306 299 88 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AA MLE2 teams — 373333 511109 321445 82 153237267504 114228 399 229 41 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE3 teams — 449416 8714114 261614 10 209263349611 139299 366 269 68 — — — — — —
202627 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 470430 9724117 281439 50 226287405692 179289 306 299 88 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLEMIN 30% 380348 7817113 241215 40 223283387669 163299 326 296 87 -6 +1 +0 -7 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXMIN 30% 4642 10202 3151 00 224283388670 164300 337 297 87 -1 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLEMIN 39% 212194 43907 13673 10 222281381662 159297 326 294 85 -4 +0 -1 -4 +5 -0.4
202829 MLB CTXMIN 39% 8377 17403 5261 10 222281382663 160297 316 294 85 -1 +0 -1 -1 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 8377 17403 5261 10 221277390667 169292 316 294 69 -1 +0 -1 -1 +2 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650603 13231023 392048 80 219275385660 166290 316 294 69 -12 +2 -4 -12 +14 -1.2
Career— MLE — 29642644 493114393 253110346 235 186269337606 151272 379 270 69 -6 +0 -1 -7 +8 -0.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 10825120 5524210 51 186268336604 150273 378 270 69 -11 +1 -2 -12 +14 -1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 470 PAwOBA .374 → .299 (−74)K% 25.3% → 30.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.32%÷1.000×1.200——30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.72%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0036.04%
HBP% /PA1.91%—×0.940—×1.0031.81%
Singles /BIP19.80%÷1.000×0.930×1.024×1.00318.91%
Doubles /BIP9.73%÷1.000×0.830×1.024×1.0038.29%
Triples /BIP0.34%÷1.000×0.970×1.024×1.0030.33%
Home runs /BIP8.39%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0035.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .374 → .299; ISO .254 → .185; BABIP .322 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 264 PAwOBA .317 → .248 (−69)K% 31.4% → 38.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.44%÷0.989×1.200——38.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.68%÷1.022×0.690—×1.0183.91%
HBP% /PA0.38%—×0.940—×1.0180.36%
Singles /BIP23.46%÷0.944×0.930×1.043×1.01824.54%
Doubles /BIP4.32%÷0.938×0.830×1.043×1.0184.06%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.000×0.970×1.043×1.0180.64%
Home runs /BIP8.64%÷1.253×0.700—×1.0184.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .317 → .248; ISO .208 → .125; BABIP .305 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 163 PAwOBA .412 → .317 (−96)K% 25.8% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.77%÷0.941×1.220——33.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.27%÷0.992×0.700—×0.9888.55%
HBP% /PA1.23%—×0.870—×0.9881.05%
Singles /BIP23.23%÷1.025×0.920×1.002×0.98820.64%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.031×0.840×1.002×0.9888.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940×1.002×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷0.986×0.800—×0.9887.29%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .412 → .317; ISO .270 → .203; BABIP .378 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 22 PAwOBA .217 → .165 (−52)K% 18.2% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.18%÷0.994×1.360——24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.64%÷1.054×0.690—×0.9608.57%
HBP% /PA4.55%—×0.780—×0.9603.40%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷1.029×0.920—×0.96013.21%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.032×0.830—×0.9600.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9600.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.898×0.800—×0.9600.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .217 → .165; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .143 → .123. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 350 PAwOBA .290 → .231 (−59)K% 29.7% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.71%÷0.964×1.220——37.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.57%÷0.963×0.700—×0.9987.67%
HBP% /PA1.43%—×0.870—×0.9981.24%
Singles /BIP19.31%÷1.091×0.920×1.011×0.99816.44%
Doubles /BIP6.93%÷0.979×0.840×1.011×0.9986.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.126×0.940×1.011×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP4.95%÷0.845×0.800—×0.9984.68%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .290 → .231; ISO .144 → .122; BABIP .275 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 23 PAwOBA .278 → .192 (−87)K% 39.1% → 53.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.13%÷0.994×1.360——53.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA34.78%÷0.976×0.690—×0.97023.85%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9700.00%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.096×0.920—×0.97013.57%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.019×0.830—×0.9700.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.962×0.910—×0.9700.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.962×0.800—×0.9700.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .278 → .192; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .136. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 319 PAwOBA .331 → .264 (−67)K% 32.3% → 38.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.29%÷1.018×1.220——38.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.17%÷0.962×0.700—×1.0129.70%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.870—×1.0120.83%
Singles /BIP16.57%÷1.011×0.920×1.031×1.01215.73%
Doubles /BIP11.24%÷0.931×0.840×1.031×1.01210.59%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷0.900×0.940×1.031×1.0120.65%
Home runs /BIP7.10%÷1.231×0.800—×1.0124.67%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .331 → .264; ISO .210 → .154; BABIP .302 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 348 PAwOBA .349 → .273 (−75)K% 31.9% → 40.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.90%÷0.993×1.270——40.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.79%÷0.983×0.710—×0.9989.94%
HBP% /PA2.30%—×0.790—×0.9981.81%
Singles /BIP19.77%÷1.021×0.920×0.989×0.99817.59%
Doubles /BIP7.34%÷0.912×0.810×0.989×0.9986.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.011×0.850×0.989×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP9.60%÷0.948×0.800—×0.9988.09%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .349 → .273; ISO .222 → .176; BABIP .294 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .