Aaron Sabato — OGILVIE

Aaron Sabato1B St. Paul Saints

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION280 act + 186 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .287 / .413

PA186

HR7

K%33

BB%7

BABIP305

ISO189

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	464	388	57	15	0	16	65	210	8	1	0	147	282	309	591	162	248	45	14	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	2 teams	—	464	361	73	18	0	19	92	149	8	1	0	202	375	410	785	208	276	32	20	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	2 teams	—	447	389	63	14	0	18	42	196	11	4	1	162	262	337	599	175	250	44	9	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	2 teams	—	447	372	80	17	0	22	59	142	11	4	1	215	339	438	778	223	272	32	13	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	2 teams	—	394	349	63	23	1	9	39	158	4	2	2	181	270	330	600	149	293	40	10	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	2 teams	—	394	337	74	22	1	19	51	130	4	2	2	220	329	460	789	240	289	33	13	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	373	333	49	11	0	11	34	157	5	8	2	147	237	279	516	132	229	42	9	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	373	321	64	14	0	10	46	113	5	8	2	199	309	336	646	137	271	30	12	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	3 teams	—	449	415	88	14	1	15	26	169	4	1	0	212	265	359	624	147	311	38	6	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	3 teams	—	449	403	105	18	1	23	38	129	4	1	0	261	330	481	812	221	322	29	8	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	MIN	—	280	256	62	18	1	13	18	81	3	3	0	242	300	473	772	230	297	29	6	329	110	+3	+1	+0	-5	+8	0.7
YTD	27	AAA	MIN	—	280	248	70	21	1	16	26	68	3	3	0	282	357	569	926	286	323	24	9	397	162	+20	+1	+0	-5	+8	2.4
ROS	27	AAA	MIN	10%	186	169	38	9	1	7	13	62	2	2	0	224	287	413	700	189	301	33	7	306	92	-2	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.1
ROS	27	MLB	MIN	10%	19	18	4	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	222	263	444	708	222	302	32	5	299	87	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
FULL	27	AAA	MIN	—	299	274	66	19	1	14	19	87	3	3	0	241	297	471	768	230	295	29	6	327	109	+3	+1	+0	-5	+8	0.7
TOT	27	AAA	MIN	—	466	425	100	27	2	20	31	143	5	5	0	235	295	449	743	214	300	31	7	320	103	+2	+1	+0	-8	+13	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	MIN	31%	333	304	68	16	1	12	23	107	3	3	0	224	285	401	686	178	298	32	7	305	92	-3	+1	-1	-6	+9	0.0
2028	29	MLB	MIN	40%	352	321	72	17	1	13	25	111	3	3	0	224	287	405	692	181	296	32	7	304	91	-4	+1	-1	-6	+10	-0.1
2029	30	MLB	MIN	45%	363	331	74	17	1	13	26	114	3	3	0	224	286	399	685	175	294	31	7	302	89	-4	+1	-2	-6	+10	-0.2
2027	28	MLB	MIN	31%	103	94	21	5	0	4	7	33	1	1	0	223	284	404	689	181	298	32	7	299	87	-2	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	MIN	40%	139	127	28	7	0	5	10	44	1	1	0	220	283	394	676	173	296	32	7	298	86	-2	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.1
2029	30	MLB	MIN	45%	162	147	33	8	0	6	12	51	2	1	0	224	292	401	693	177	294	31	7	296	84	-3	+0	-1	-3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	423	386	86	21	0	16	30	134	4	3	0	223	286	402	687	179	293	32	7	297	86	-7	+1	-2	-8	+12	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	132	32	0	25	46	206	6	5	0	223	285	403	688	180	292	32	7	297	86	-11	+1	-3	-12	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	3361	2999	572	136	6	114	293	1284	43	27	5	191	272	354	626	163	282	38	9	277	70	-113	+3	-4	-60	+95	-8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	110	26	1	22	57	248	8	5	1	190	271	352	623	162	280	38	9	277	70	-22	+1	-1	-12	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	97	75	19	3	0	8	19	32	1	0	0	253	411	613	1.024	360	297	33	20	430	187	+10	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2021	22	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	367	286	54	15	0	11	73	117	7	1	0	189	366	357	723	168	270	32	20	337	116	+7	+0	—	—	+10	1.8
2022	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	99	84	15	4	0	5	10	31	3	2	0	179	289	405	693	226	200	31	10	305	91	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	348	288	65	13	0	17	49	111	8	2	1	226	354	448	802	222	294	32	14	356	130	+12	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2023	24	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	319	272	60	19	1	12	42	103	3	2	2	221	331	430	761	210	302	32	13	338	117	+6	-0	—	—	+9	1.5
2023	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	75	65	14	3	0	7	9	27	1	0	0	215	320	585	905	369	226	36	12	387	155	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	350	306	63	14	0	10	38	104	5	8	2	206	304	350	653	144	275	30	11	298	86	-5	+1	—	—	+10	0.5
2024	25	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	23	15	1	0	0	0	8	9	0	0	0	67	391	67	458		167	39	35	282	74	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	26	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	264	245	60	7	1	14	15	83	1	0	0	245	291	453	744	208	305	31	6	323	106	+2	+0	—	—	+7	0.9
2025	26	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	163	141	43	11	0	9	20	42	2	1	0	305	399	574	973	270	378	26	12	424	183	+15	+0	—	—	+5	2.0
2025	26	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	22	17	2	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	118	286	118	403		143	18	14	211	20	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	5	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	24	1	254	298	424	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	429	16	3	224	284	401	-8	-2	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	24	5	224	284	401	-11.9	-2.3	-0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Sabato (OGILVIE)	27	40	60	45	30	235/295/449	214	300	20	5	31%	7%	103	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Jensen 2015 · AAA	27	37→47	52→60	44→40	39	198/263/359	161	276	20	4	35%	7%	71	-0.3	204/253/371	167	286	21	3	36%	5%	70	-0.3	189/236/350	161	265	21	0	37%	5%	54	-1.0
✕Chris Jacobs 2016 · AAA	27	44→41	49→55	46→40	43	223/297/369	146	307	18	3	32%	8%	88	+0.9	217/273/324	107	324	11	6	34%	6%	65	-0.7	187/220/268	81	294	13	0	40%	3%	24	-0.7
●Matt Davidson 2018 · MLB	27	38→44	55→60	42→30	37	210/262/385	175	286	24	2	35%	6%	77	+0.1	218/287/408	190	296	26	2	34%	7%	94	+1.3	221/293/427	206	292	29	0	34%	7%	99	+1.3
●Kevin Cron 2019 · AAA	26	40→45	52→60	47→30	39	215/265/374	159	279	21	3	31%	6%	76	+0.0	227/300/444	217	279	30	5	30%	8%	109	+2.4	219/310/499	280	240	41	1	29%	10%	125	+2.6
✕Devin Harris 2015 · AA	27	39	54→60	44→40	37	211/255/391	180	278	21	3	32%	5%	76	+0.0	215/260/381	166	289	20	6	32%	5%	75	-0.0	200/245/377	177	257	23	4	32%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Joe Gaetti 2009 · AAA	27	43→52	52→55	46→45	39	219/279/389	169	310	20	6	35%	6%	85	+0.7	204/269/342	138	305	16	7	36%	7%	69	-0.4	138/219/236	97	212	11	0	39%	8%	22	-1.1
●Xavier Scruggs 2014 · AA	26	39→47	51→55	44→45	41	201/279/354	153	298	20	8	38%	8%	76	+0.1	216/291/364	148	297	16	6	31%	8%	84	+0.6	218/300/395	177	284	22	4	30%	8%	93	+0.8
✕Peter O'Brien 2017 · MLB	27	33→43	55→65	45→30	32	192/231/370	178	266	24	3	38%	4%	60	-1.0	173/230/334	161	267	22	3	42%	6%	50	-1.7	154/220/314	160	233	23	1	44%	7%	39	-1.7
✕Travis Taijeron 2016 · AAA	27	40→41	51→55	40	41	201/286/362	161	307	19	3	38%	8%	82	+0.5	188/273/321	133	314	14	3	41%	9%	66	-0.6	174/268/327	153	287	18	3	42%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Sean Bouchard 2022 · AA	26	41	50→55	47→50	39	209/263/369	160	294	17	10	34%	6%	72	-0.2	219/309/394	175	294	19	14	30%	10%	98	+1.6	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Ryan Strieby 2012 · AAA	26	45	51→60	45→40	42	224/292/378	154	317	19	5	34%	8%	88	+0.9	188/256/311	123	281	14	5	36%	7%	55	-1.4	139/215/239	99	205	12	1	37%	7%	17	-3.4
✕Mike Bianucci 2013 · AAA	27	41→40	52→65	44→40	37	217/261/376	158	275	21	4	30%	4%	74	-0.1	236/278/437	201	278	28	4	26%	5%	98	+1.6	235/273/462	226	263	34	2	26%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Kyle Garlick 2019 · AAA	27	38→48	49→60	49→40	32	198/238/343	145	300	18	4	40%	4%	56	-1.3	216/266/401	185	305	23	6	36%	5%	83	+0.6	222/280/450	228	285	31	2	33%	6%	99	+0.6
✕Brendan Katin 2010 · AAA	27	37→47	53→60	49→45	31	198/245/371	173	302	21	6	41%	4%	66	-0.6	212/276/417	205	285	27	5	35%	6%	92	+1.2	201/279/432	231	240	34	1	33%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Chris Gittens 2021 · AA	27	45→43	52→50	46→30	43	219/299/380	161	345	21	4	40%	10%	92	+1.2	238/329/413	175	329	21	6	31%	11%	112	+2.6	229/345/429	200	299	27	0	30%	15%	118	+1.1
✕Anthony Gallas 2015 · AAA	27	41	55	44→40	37	221/260/404	183	286	23	4	32%	5%	81	+0.4	222/266/391	169	290	21	5	30%	5%	80	+0.4	215/261/388	174	266	23	2	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	37→41	53→60	46→50	42	197/281/370	173	278	22	10	36%	8%	82	+0.5	208/303/397	189	294	24	7	35%	10%	98	+1.6	199/309/387	188	287	24	5	36%	12%	95	+1.0
✕Kyle Russell 2013 · AAA	27	39→45	52→60	47→45	40	204/272/374	170	300	20	7	38%	8%	79	+0.3	202/265/323	121	325	13	9	39%	7%	61	-1.0	160/219/247	87	287	10	7	45%	7%	20	-1.2
✕Brad Glenn 2014 · AAA	27	41→46	54→55	42→45	39	220/268/393	173	284	22	4	31%	6%	82	+0.5	225/270/363	138	306	15	4	30%	5%	74	-0.1	221/264/347	127	304	13	1	31%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2023 · MLB	25	43→44	51→55	43→45	36	214/268/364	150	334	20	8	40%	6%	74	-0.1	228/292/401	173	337	24	7	37%	8%	94	+1.3	225/295/404	179	324	26	6	37%	8%	92	+0.6