Brandon Lewis
3B Jersey Shore BlueClaws| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AALAD | 369 | .199/.268/.300 | 7 | 1 | 23 | — | .162/.217/.238 |
| 2024 | 25 | AALAD | 269 | .208/.292/.360 | 9 | 0 | 25 | — | .147/.208/.249 |
| 2026 | 27 | A+PHI | 118 | .183/.274/.365 | 5 | 0 | 17 | — | .127/.179/.264 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBPHI | 200 | .206/.271/.340 | 5 | 1 | 72 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 29 | MLBPHI | 26 | .207/.273/.343 | 1 | 0 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 53 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 245 | 271 | 516 | 104 | 219 | 28 | 8 | 240 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | — | 49 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 333 | 244 | 577 | 24 | 265 | 16 | 10 | 275 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 234 | 214 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 262 | 322 | 584 | 906 | 322 | 288 | 30 | 6 | 389 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 200 | 169 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 384 | 550 | 934 | 272 | 378 | 32 | 13 | 403 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 436 | 397 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 24 | 28 | 147 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 438 | 711 | 229 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 369 | 337 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 268 | 300 | 568 | 101 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 261 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 236 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 292 | 360 | 652 | 153 | 292 | 35 | 10 | 290 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 274 | 365 | 639 | 183 | 215 | 30 | 10 | 286 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 53 | 49 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 208 | 245 | 452 | 102 | 201 | 38 | 6 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | — | 49 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 250 | 186 | 436 | 23 | 211 | 24 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 234 | 219 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 262 | 470 | 732 | 256 | 264 | 40 | 4 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 200 | 178 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 84 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 278 | 376 | 654 | 180 | 300 | 42 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 436 | 405 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 185 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 220 | 338 | 558 | 170 | 237 | 42 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 369 | 345 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 119 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 217 | 238 | 454 | 75 | 228 | 32 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 245 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 208 | 249 | 457 | 102 | 235 | 44 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 179 | 264 | 443 | 136 | 162 | 39 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 228 | 207 | 434 | 54 | 213 | 30 | 6 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 102 | 89 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 287 | 258 | 546 | 67 | 242 | 23 | 9 | 257 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 398 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 178 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 262 | 415 | 677 | 214 | 285 | 41 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 383 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 30 | 40 | 133 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 269 | 350 | 569 | 920 | 300 | 327 | 31 | 9 | 396 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 436 | 405 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 185 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 220 | 338 | 558 | 170 | 243 | 42 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 436 | 397 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 24 | 28 | 147 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 438 | 711 | 229 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 369 | 345 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 119 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 217 | 238 | 454 | 75 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 369 | 337 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 100 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 268 | 300 | 568 | 101 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 261 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 245 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 208 | 249 | 457 | 102 | 242 | 44 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 236 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 292 | 360 | 652 | 153 | 292 | 35 | 10 | 290 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 179 | 264 | 443 | 136 | 164 | 39 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ RAW | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 274 | 365 | 639 | 183 | 215 | 30 | 10 | 286 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 102 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 228 | 207 | 434 | 54 | 206 | 30 | 6 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 398 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 178 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 262 | 415 | 677 | 214 | 281 | 41 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 436 | 406 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 185 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 220 | 337 | 557 | 170 | 237 | 42 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 369 | 342 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 119 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 217 | 240 | 457 | 76 | 228 | 32 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 248 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 208 | 246 | 454 | 101 | 235 | 44 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 179 | 264 | 443 | 136 | 162 | 39 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 269 | 248 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 208 | 246 | 454 | 101 | 235 | 44 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 118 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 179 | 264 | 443 | 136 | 162 | 39 | 5 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 200 | 182 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 271 | 340 | 611 | 133 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 22% | 120 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 271 | 337 | 607 | 131 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 22% | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 273 | 343 | 616 | 136 | 270 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 71 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 267 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 47 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 125 | 25 | 0 | 25 | 50 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 267 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 47 | -23 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1932 | 1781 | 306 | 57 | 3 | 62 | 109 | 737 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 172 | 231 | 312 | 542 | 140 | 245 | 38 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 21 | 37 | 248 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 172 | 231 | 312 | 543 | 140 | 245 | 38 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -22 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 118 PAwOBA .273 → .194 (−79)K% 29.7% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.948 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.948 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 11.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 6.05% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .273 → .194; ISO .183 → .140; BABIP .215 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATulsa Drillers · 269 PAwOBA .286 → .205 (−81)K% 34.9% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.94% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 18.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.142 | ×0.940 | ×0.952 | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.34% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.71% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .286 → .205; ISO .153 → .106; BABIP .292 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATulsa Drillers · 369 PAwOBA .254 → .202 (−52)K% 27.1% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.10% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.83% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 17.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷0.942 | ×0.840 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.95% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.18% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .254 → .202; ISO .101 → .075; BABIP .261 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATulsa Drillers · 436 PAwOBA .304 → .238 (−65)K% 33.7% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.72% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.42% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 15.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷1.006 | ×0.840 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.60% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 7.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .304 → .238; ISO .229 → .170; BABIP .257 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 234 PAwOBA .378 → .300 (−78)K% 29.9% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.91% | ÷1.013 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.042 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.89% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 12.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .378 → .300; ISO .322 → .254; BABIP .288 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 200 PAwOBA .393 → .285 (−108)K% 31.5% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.50% | ÷1.015 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.75% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.21% | ÷1.166 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 8.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.43% | ÷0.965 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 7.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 93, 2B 133, 3B 92, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .393 → .285; ISO .272 → .193; BABIP .378 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 53 PAwOBA .234 → .181 (−52)K% 28.3% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.30% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷1.031 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 14.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .181; ISO .104 → .079; BABIP .219 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Lasorda · 49 PAwOBA .275 → .202 (−72)K% 16.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .275 → .202; ISO .024 → .017; BABIP .265 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).