Edwin Díaz

SS Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 31 R/R 6'2" / 223 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202428INTLPuerto Rico177.238/.360/.49094138—
202529AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs588.231/.355/.40920984—.172/.249/.316
202630AAA/ROKHOU113.170/.330/.3865246—.128/.248/.268
2027PROJ10% MLB31MLBHOU10.205/.286/.35200790.0
2028PROJ27% MLB32MLBHOU26.202/.282/.3431076-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed93
BB%89
Chase%87
Max EV20
Z-Con%19
K%9
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsAnthony Recker (age 30) · Eric Haase (age 31) · Brian O'Keefe (age 31)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†79
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .286 / .352
PA10
HR0
K%30
BB%10
BABIP269
ISO140
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +2.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER60
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201317 ROKAZL Athletics — 9892 22611 5250 11 239278359637 120313 265 281 17 — — — — — —
201418 ROKAZL Athletics — 170145 351211 17396 20 241345359704 117321 2310 320 32 — — — — — —
201418 INTLSenadores de San Juan — 3127 3100 2121 01 111200148348 37200 396 169 0 — — — — — —
201519 ABeloit Snappers — 154140 14800 8492 00 100160157317 57151 325 148 -41 — — — — — —
201519 ROKAZL Athletics — 8576 13202 8221 00 171259276535 105212 269 249 -6 — — — — — —
201620 ABeloit Snappers — 340296 701305 261018 42 236315331646 95335 308 289 29 — — — — — —
201620 INTLTiburones de Aguadilla — 3026 3000 460 10 115233115349 150 2013 184 10 — — — — — —
201721 A+Stockton Ports — 5145 4010 4150 00 89163133297 44129 298 140 -41 — — — — — —
201721 ABeloit Snappers — 351302 7712310 43912 00 255352414765 159330 2612 341 51 — — — — — —
201721 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 5952 13502 4172 00 250328462789 212324 297 344 119 — — — — — —
201822 AAMidland RockHounds — 116103 16402 8320 10 155216252469 97192 287 206 1 — — — — — —
201822 A+Stockton Ports — 344296 7019013 39983 30 236331432764 196303 2811 335 51 — — — — — —
201822 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 8071 16411 5203 01 225304352656 127294 256 295 86 — — — — — —
201923 AAMidland RockHounds — 520458 10936714 481539 31 238322439761 201323 299 334 51 — — — — — —
201923 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 117108 20712 9340 11 185248324572 139250 298 257 60 — — — — — —
202024 INTLPuerto Rico — 7164 13304 5282 00 203282438719 234281 397 318 101 — — — — — —
202125 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 6154 6002 7260 00 111213222435 111154 4311 208 -20 — — — — — —
202125 AAMidland RockHounds — 160144 35707 14562 10 243319438756 194346 359 336 51 — — — — — —
202125 INTLPuerto Rico — 11294 15406 12396 11 160295394688 234184 3511 312 97 — — — — — —
202226 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 120110 25513 8460 00 227280373652 145355 387 286 39 — — — — — —
202226 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 169149 25219 17601 20 168257376633 208195 3610 280 15 — — — — — —
202226 INTLPuerto Rico — 222181 41609 30459 10 227364409772 182248 2014 349 122 — — — — — —
202327 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 4844 4112 4190 00 91167295462 20587 408 205 -20 — — — — — —
202327 INTLLeones de Ponce — 139106 26604 25327 02 245420415835 170310 2318 382 145 — — — — — —
202428 INTLPuerto Rico — 177147 35819 20378 44 238360490850 252255 2111 372 138 — — — — — —
202529 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 247215 4612010 27614 20 214313409722 195248 2511 323 49 — — — — — —
202529 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 10791 23406 14252 21 253364495859 242283 2313 380 80 — — — — — —
202529 INTLLeones de Ponce — 234183 44914 373910 53 240396366762 126278 1716 350 123 — — — — — —
202630 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 8869 10212 14323 21 145314290604 145222 3616 282 31 — — — — — —
202630 ROKFCL Astros — 2519 5003 391 00 2633917371.128 474222 3612 435 99 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201317 ROK MLEAZL Athletics — 9894 17411 3360 11 181206277483 96256 373 193 17 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLEAZL Athletics — 170151 26811 11566 20 172256258514 86244 336 216 32 — — — — — —
201519 A MLEBeloit Snappers — 154142 11600 6672 00 77127120246 42126 444 107 -41 — — — — — —
201519 ROK MLEAZL Athletics — 8579 8101 5321 00 101165152317 51159 386 160 -6 — — — — — —
201620 A MLEBeloit Snappers — 340305 541004 171398 42 177239249489 72280 415 211 29 — — — — — —
201721 A+ MLEStockton Ports — 5146 4010 3200 00 87143130273 43118 396 108 -41 — — — — — —
201721 A MLEBeloit Snappers — 351318 59837 271202 00 186254296549 110265 348 244 51 — — — — — —
201822 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 116105 14302 6400 10 133180219399 86162 345 169 1 — — — — — —
201822 A+ MLEStockton Ports — 344308 551509 271353 30 179251315566 136261 398 243 51 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 520472 8224511 341979 31 174243316558 142261 387 244 51 — — — — — —
202125 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 6156 4001 5310 00 71148125273 54124 518 138 -20 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 160149 26506 9692 10 174231329560 154276 436 244 51 — — — — — —
202226 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 120113 21412 5560 00 186220292512 106330 474 226 39 — — — — — —
202226 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 169155 18116 11771 20 116180252431 135158 467 191 15 — — — — — —
202327 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 4845 3111 3230 00 67125200325 13374 486 138 -20 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 247225 371007 17744 20 164236302538 138209 307 241 49 — — — — — —
202529 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 10795 18304 10292 21 189280347628 158237 279 287 80 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 8874 9211 9383 21 122244216460 95191 4310 214 31 — — — — — —
202630 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 2520 3002 2131 00 150261450711 300156 528 315 99 — — — — — —
201317 ROK MLEAZL Athletics — 9894 17411 3360 11 181206277483 96276 373 193 17 — — — — — —
201317 ROK RAWAZL Athletics — 9892 22611 5250 11 239278359637 120313 265 281 17 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLE2 teams — 201179 30911 12667 21 168247246493 78257 336 216 32 — — — — — —
201418 ROK RAW2 teams — 201172 381311 19517 21 221323326649 105306 259 297 32 — — — — — —
201519 A MLE2 teams — 239221 19701 11993 00 86140131272 45146 415 126 -29 — — — — — —
201519 A RAW2 teams — 239216 271002 16713 00 125196199395 74172 307 184 -29 — — — — — —
201620 A MLE2 teams — 370334 581104 181518 52 174233243476 69295 415 211 29 — — — — — —
201620 A RAW2 teams — 370322 731305 301078 52 227308314622 87318 298 280 29 — — — — — —
201721 A MLE3 teams — 461416 71948 341604 00 171240269509 99250 357 227 40 — — — — — —
201721 A RAW3 teams — 461399 9417412 511234 00 236328388717 153306 2711 319 40 — — — — — —
201822 A+ MLE3 teams — 540484 7921012 382066 41 163233281514 118245 387 224 38 — — — — — —
201822 A+ RAW3 teams — 540470 10227116 521506 41 217303381684 164276 2810 301 38 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLE2 teams — 637581 10029613 422419 42 172239310549 138264 387 244 51 — — — — — —
201923 AA RAW2 teams — 637566 12943816 571879 42 228309417726 189309 299 320 51 — — — — — —
202024 INTL MLEPuerto Rico — 7164 13304 5282 00 203282438719 234281 397 — — — — — — — —
202024 INTL RAWPuerto Rico — 7164 13304 5282 00 203282438719 234281 397 318 101 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLE3 teams — 333304 468011 211528 21 151225286511 135248 466 215 31 — — — — — —
202125 AA RAW3 teams — 333292 5611015 331218 21 192291384675 192263 3610 304 31 — — — — — —
202226 INTL MLE3 teams — 511467 7010315 2823510 30 150214281494 131248 465 206 25 — — — — — —
202226 INTL RAW3 teams — 511440 9113221 5515110 30 207309389698 182256 3011 311 25 — — — — — —
202327 INTL MLE2 teams — 187169 12345 10907 02 71156225381 15493 485 138 -20 — — — — — —
202327 INTL RAW2 teams — 187150 30716 29517 02 200355380735 180255 2716 337 -20 — — — — — —
202428 INTL MLEPuerto Rico — 177147 35819 20378 44 238360490850 252255 2111 — — — — — — — —
202428 INTL RAWPuerto Rico — 177147 35819 20378 44 238360490850 252255 2111 372 138 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 588522 9423019 4517116 94 180266333599 153223 298 255 59 — — — — — —
202529 AAA RAW3 teams — 588489 11325120 7812516 94 231355409764 178266 2113 344 59 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 11394 12213 11514 21 128248266514 138209 4510 236 46 — — — — — —
202630 AAA RAW2 teams — 11388 15215 17414 21 170330386717 216222 3615 316 46 — — — — — —
201317 ROK MLEAZL Athletics — 9895 17411 3360 11 179206274480 95256 373 193 17 — — — — — —
201418 ROK MLE2 teams — 201180 30911 12667 21 167247244492 78244 336 216 32 — — — — — —
201519 A MLE2 teams — 239223 19701 11993 00 85140130270 45138 415 126 -29 — — — — — —
201620 A MLE2 teams — 370341 581104 181518 52 170233238471 67280 415 211 29 — — — — — —
201721 A MLE3 teams — 461420 71948 341604 00 169240267507 98246 357 227 40 — — — — — —
201822 A+ MLE3 teams — 540491 7921012 382066 41 161233277510 116236 387 224 38 — — — — — —
201923 AA MLE2 teams — 637581 10029613 422419 42 172239310549 138261 387 244 51 — — — — — —
202125 AA MLE3 teams — 333301 468011 211528 21 153225289514 136234 466 215 31 — — — — — —
202226 INTL MLE3 teams — 511468 7010315 2823510 30 150214280494 130229 465 206 25 — — — — — —
202327 INTL MLE2 teams — 187168 12345 10907 02 71156226382 15574 485 138 -20 — — — — — —
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 588522 9423019 4517116 94 180266333599 153217 298 255 59 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 11397 12213 11514 21 124248258505 134183 4510 236 46 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202529 AAA MLE3 teams — 588522 9423019 4517116 94 180266333599 153217 298 255 59 — — — — — —
202630 AAA MLE2 teams — 11397 12213 11514 21 124248258505 134183 4510 236 46 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202731 MLB MLEHOU 10% 200178 36716 17593 31 203284350634 147265 308 285 79 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202731 MLB CTXHOU 10% 109 1000 130 00 205286352638 147269 3010 287 79 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202832 MLB MLEHOU 27% 9585 17303 8282 10 200280341621 141263 298 280 76 -3 +0 -4 +1 +2 -0.3
202832 MLB CTXHOU 27% 2624 5101 280 00 202282343625 141267 318 282 76 -1 +0 -1 +0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 2624 5101 280 00 208269375644 167267 318 282 28 -1 +0 -1 +0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 12525025 502000 00 208269375644 167267 318 282 28 -19 +0 -24 +7 +14 -2.2
Career— MLE — 47264254 69215421112 315178296 3919 163236288524 125242 387 209 28 -5 +1 -4 +2 +4 -0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 9521315 4324513 53 162235285521 123242 387 209 28 -17 +2 -11 +7 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 88 PAwOBA .279 → .214 (−65)K% 36.4% → 43.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.36%÷1.000×1.200——43.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.91%÷1.000×0.690—×0.96210.56%
HBP% /PA3.41%—×0.940—×0.9623.08%
Singles /BIP13.51%÷1.000×0.930—×0.96212.09%
Doubles /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9624.32%
Triples /BIP2.70%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9622.52%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9623.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .279 → .214; ISO .145 → .110; BABIP .222 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 25 PAwOBA .459 → .315 (−145)K% 36.0% → 51.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.00%÷1.000×1.440——51.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9406.99%
HBP% /PA4.00%—×0.720—×0.9402.71%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94015.42%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP30.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.94022.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .459 → .315; ISO .474 → .334; BABIP .222 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 247 PAwOBA .316 → .241 (−75)K% 24.7% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.70%÷0.995×1.200——29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.93%÷1.056×0.690—×0.9726.94%
HBP% /PA1.62%—×0.940—×0.9721.48%
Singles /BIP15.58%÷1.012×0.930×0.957×0.97213.31%
Doubles /BIP7.79%÷0.891×0.830×0.957×0.9726.75%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.957×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP6.49%÷0.961×0.700—×0.9724.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .316 → .241; ISO .195 → .146; BABIP .248 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 107 PAwOBA .370 → .287 (−83)K% 23.4% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.36%÷1.036×1.220——27.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.08%÷0.948×0.700—×0.9489.16%
HBP% /PA1.87%—×0.870—×0.9481.54%
Singles /BIP19.70%÷0.982×0.920×0.976×0.94817.08%
Doubles /BIP6.06%÷0.930×0.840×0.976×0.9485.07%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.949×0.940×0.976×0.9480.00%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷1.057×0.800—×0.9486.53%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .370 → .287; ISO .242 → .179; BABIP .283 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 48 PAwOBA .200 → .138 (−62)K% 39.6% → 48.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.58%÷1.000×1.220——48.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.032×0.700—×0.9685.47%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9680.00%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷0.972×0.970—×0.9680.00%
Doubles /BIP4.00%÷1.144×0.860—×0.9682.91%
Triples /BIP4.00%÷0.900×0.950—×0.9684.09%
Home runs /BIP8.00%÷1.048×0.780—×0.9685.76%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .200 → .138; ISO .205 → .143; BABIP .087 → .074. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 169 PAwOBA .275 → .191 (−85)K% 35.5% → 45.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.50%÷0.947×1.220——45.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.06%÷1.084×0.700—×0.9786.35%
HBP% /PA0.59%—×0.870—×0.9780.50%
Singles /BIP14.61%÷1.018×0.920×0.950×0.97812.27%
Doubles /BIP2.25%÷0.986×0.840×0.950×0.9781.78%
Triples /BIP1.12%÷1.044×0.940×0.950×0.9780.94%
Home runs /BIP10.11%÷1.040×0.800—×0.9787.61%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .275 → .191; ISO .208 → .142; BABIP .195 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 120 PAwOBA .277 → .226 (−51)K% 38.3% → 46.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.33%÷0.986×1.200——46.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.83%÷0.953×0.690—×1.0034.24%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.982×0.930×1.004×1.00323.84%
Doubles /BIP7.81%÷0.952×0.830×1.004×1.0036.86%
Triples /BIP1.56%÷0.900×0.970×1.004×1.0031.70%
Home runs /BIP4.69%÷0.917×0.700—×1.0033.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .277 → .226; ISO .145 → .113; BABIP .355 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMidland RockHounds · 160 PAwOBA .327 → .244 (−83)K% 35.0% → 43.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.00%÷0.983×1.220——43.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.75%÷1.027×0.690—×0.9885.81%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.850—×0.9881.05%
Singles /BIP23.86%÷1.096×0.940×0.950×0.98819.20%
Doubles /BIP7.95%÷1.018×0.870×0.950×0.9886.38%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.127×0.920×0.950×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP7.95%÷0.838×0.780—×0.9887.31%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 125, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .244; ISO .194 → .156; BABIP .346 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .