Edwin Díaz — OGILVIE

Edwin DíazSS Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 R/R 6'2" / 223 lbs AAA H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2026

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .275 / .352

PA250

HR7

K%31

BB%8

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

50→50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$-4M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	AZL Athletics	98	95	16	4	1	1	2	36	0	1	1	.168	.186	.263	.449	.095	.254	37	2	.189	3	-11	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.7
2014	18	ROK	2 teams	201	179	29	9	1	1	12	66	7	2	1	.162	.242	.240	.483	.078	.248	33	6	.215	23	-18	+0	+0	+2	+6	-1.0
2015	19	A	2 teams	239	221	19	7	0	1	11	95	3	0	0	.086	.140	.131	.272	.045	.142	40	5	.127	-45	-39	+0	+0	+3	+7	-3.0
2016	20	A	2 teams	370	334	60	11	0	4	18	141	8	5	2	.180	.239	.249	.487	.069	.290	38	5	.216	24	-32	+0	+0	+4	+10	-1.8
2017	21	A	3 teams	461	415	74	10	4	8	35	151	4	0	0	.178	.249	.280	.528	.101	.254	33	8	.232	36	-33	+0	+0	+5	+13	-1.6
2018	22	A+	3 teams	540	484	79	21	0	12	38	210	6	4	1	.163	.233	.281	.514	.118	.248	39	7	.223	29	-43	+0	+0	+6	+15	-2.2
2019	23	AA	2 teams	637	582	98	29	5	14	41	254	9	4	2	.168	.234	.308	.542	.139	.265	40	6	.241	43	-41	+0	+0	+7	+18	-1.7
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	71	64	13	3	0	4	5	28	2	0	0	.203	.282	.438	.719	.234	.281	39	7	—	—	—	—	+0	+1	—	—
2021	25	AA	3 teams	333	304	44	7	0	12	21	163	8	2	1	.145	.219	.286	.505	.141	.248	49	6	.214	22	-29	+0	+0	+4	+9	-1.7
2022	26	INTL	3 teams	511	466	67	9	3	16	29	250	10	3	0	.144	.210	.279	.489	.135	.249	49	6	.204	14	-49	+1	+0	+5	+14	-3.0
2023	27	INTL	2 teams	187	168	12	3	3	6	11	95	7	0	2	.071	.161	.232	.393	.161	.088	51	6	.145	-31	-28	-1	+0	+2	+5	-2.2
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	177	147	35	8	1	9	20	37	8	4	4	.238	.360	.490	.850	.252	.255	21	11	—	—	—	—	+0	+2	—	—
2025	29	AAA	3 teams	588	519	94	22	0	21	48	182	16	9	4	.181	.271	.345	.616	.164	.227	31	8	.264	60	-27	+0	+0	+6	+17	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	HOU	250	226	46	10	1	7	19	77	3	4	1	.204	.274	.350	.624	.146	.272	31	8	.283	75	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	HOU	252	228	47	10	1	7	19	77	3	2	0	.206	.276	.351	.627	.145	.273	31	8	.283	75	-7	+0	-3	+3	+7	0.0
2028	32	MLB 33%	HOU	251	226	47	10	1	7	20	76	3	1	0	.208	.281	.354	.635	.146	.273	30	8	.282	74	-7	+0	-4	+3	+7	-0.1
2029	33	MLB 43%	HOU	232	209	43	9	1	6	18	71	3	0	0	.206	.278	.344	.623	.139	.272	31	8	.278	71	-8	+0	-4	+2	+7	-0.3
2030	34	MLB 52%	HOU	197	178	36	7	1	5	15	62	2	0	0	.202	.272	.337	.609	.135	.271	31	8	.273	67	-7	+0	-5	+2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5595	5045	859	189	23	141	382	2071	102	41	19	.170	.243	.301	.544	.130	.250	37	7	.222	28	-455	+1	-15	+60	+159	-25.6
/ 162G	—			650	586	100	22	3	16	44	241	12	5	2	.171	.243	.300	.543	.130	.251	37	7	.222	28	-53	+0	-2	+7	+18	-3.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	17	ROK	AZL Athletics	98	92	22	6	1	1	5	25	0	1	1	.239	.278	.359	.637	.120	.313	26	5	.281	73	-3	-0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2014	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	170	145	35	12	1	1	17	39	6	2	0	.241	.345	.359	.704	.117	.321	23	10	.320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+5	0.6
2014	18	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	31	27	3	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	1	.111	.200	.148	.348	.037	.200	39	6	.169	-13	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2015	19	A	Beloit Snappers	154	140	14	8	0	0	8	49	2	0	0	.100	.160	.157	.317	.057	.151	32	5	.148	-29	-22	+0	—	—	+4	-1.8
2015	19	ROK	AZL Athletics	85	76	13	2	0	2	8	22	1	0	0	.171	.259	.276	.535	.105	.212	26	9	.249	49	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2016	20	A	Beloit Snappers	340	296	70	13	0	5	26	101	8	4	2	.236	.315	.331	.646	.095	.335	30	8	.289	79	-8	+0	—	—	+10	0.2
2016	20	INTL	Tiburones de Aguadilla	30	26	3	0	0	0	4	6	0	1	0	.115	.233	.115	.349	.000	.150	20	13	.184	-1	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2017	21	A+	Stockton Ports	51	45	4	0	1	0	4	15	0	0	0	.089	.163	.133	.297	.044	.129	29	8	.140	-35	-8	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2017	21	A	Beloit Snappers	351	302	77	12	3	10	43	91	2	0	0	.255	.352	.414	.765	.159	.330	26	12	.341	119	+7	+0	—	—	+10	1.8
2017	21	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	59	52	13	5	0	2	4	17	2	0	0	.250	.328	.462	.789	.212	.324	29	7	.344	121	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2018	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	116	103	16	4	0	2	8	32	0	1	0	.155	.216	.252	.469	.097	.192	28	7	.206	16	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2018	22	A+	Stockton Ports	344	296	70	19	0	13	39	98	3	3	0	.236	.331	.432	.764	.196	.303	28	11	.335	115	+6	+1	—	—	+10	1.6
2018	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	80	71	16	4	1	1	5	20	3	0	1	.225	.304	.352	.656	.127	.294	25	6	.295	84	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2019	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	520	458	109	36	7	14	48	153	9	3	1	.238	.322	.439	.761	.201	.323	29	9	.334	114	+8	+0	—	—	+15	2.4
2019	23	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	117	108	20	7	1	2	9	34	0	1	1	.185	.248	.324	.572	.139	.250	29	8	.257	55	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2020	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	71	64	13	3	0	4	5	28	2	0	0	.203	.282	.438	.719	.234	.281	39	7	.318	101	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	61	54	6	0	0	2	7	26	0	0	0	.111	.213	.222	.435	.111	.154	43	11	.208	17	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	160	144	35	7	0	7	14	56	2	1	0	.243	.319	.438	.756	.194	.346	35	9	.336	115	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	112	94	15	4	0	6	12	39	6	1	1	.160	.295	.394	.688	.234	.184	35	11	.312	97	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2022	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	120	110	25	5	1	3	8	46	0	0	0	.227	.280	.373	.652	.145	.355	38	7	.286	77	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2022	26	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	169	149	25	2	1	9	17	60	1	2	0	.168	.257	.376	.633	.208	.195	36	10	.280	72	-5	+0	—	—	+5	-0.0
2022	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	222	181	41	6	0	9	30	45	9	1	0	.227	.364	.409	.772	.182	.248	20	14	.349	125	+6	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2023	27	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	48	44	4	1	1	2	4	19	0	0	0	.091	.167	.295	.462	.205	.087	40	8	.205	15	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	27	INTL	Leones de Ponce	139	106	26	6	0	4	25	32	7	0	2	.245	.420	.415	.835	.170	.310	23	18	.382	150	+8	-1	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	177	147	35	8	1	9	20	37	8	4	4	.238	.360	.490	.850	.252	.255	21	11	.372	143	+9	-1	—	—	+5	1.3
2025	29	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	247	215	46	12	0	10	27	61	4	2	0	.214	.313	.409	.722	.195	.248	25	11	.323	105	+1	+0	—	—	+7	0.9
2025	29	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	107	91	23	4	0	6	14	25	2	2	1	.253	.364	.495	.859	.242	.283	23	13	.380	149	+6	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2025	29	INTL	Leones de Ponce	234	183	44	9	1	4	37	39	10	5	3	.240	.396	.366	.762	.126	.278	17	16	.350	126	+7	-0	—	—	+7	1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edwin Díaz (OGILVIE)	30	40	60	45	50	.203/.275/.352	.149	.272	7	4	31%	8%	75	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	43→42	49→50	45	45	.221/.292/.366	.145	.284	17	7	28%	8%	85	+0.7	.227/.277/.383	.156	.291	20	6	29%	6%	82	+0.5	.217/.262/.366	.149	.273	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	43→48	51→50	43→45	47	.220/.295/.378	.157	.286	19	7	29%	9%	89	+0.9	.211/.280/.369	.158	.286	20	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	.200/.280/.351	.151	.266	19	3	31%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	42	51→55	45→40	40	.218/.273/.375	.158	.294	20	5	33%	6%	79	+0.3	.204/.265/.371	.167	.260	21	4	30%	7%	75	-0.0	.182/.248/.350	.167	.219	22	2	29%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41	47→50	43→55	46	.211/.283/.343	.132	.274	16	6	28%	8%	75	-0.0	.206/.284/.351	.145	.269	16	16	28%	9%	78	+0.2	.187/.272/.333	.146	.244	16	19	29%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	41→44	51→55	49→50	38	.216/.260/.371	.155	.290	19	10	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.208/.257/.339	.131	.293	15	11	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.195/.247/.313	.118	.278	13	8	34%	5%	48	-1.2
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	41→44	52→55	49→40	45	.217/.282/.379	.162	.265	21	6	27%	7%	84	+0.6	.214/.274/.387	.173	.271	22	5	29%	7%	82	+0.5	.207/.268/.386	.179	.258	24	4	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	38→44	51→55	44→45	42	.204/.266/.370	.166	.256	18	7	28%	6%	75	-0.0	.210/.273/.363	.153	.278	16	9	29%	7%	76	+0.0	.225/.292/.365	.140	.286	14	7	25%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Niko Vasquez 2019 · AAA	30	47→41	51→50	47→45	41	.240/.291/.401	.161	.299	20	9	27%	6%	93	+1.3	.218/.276/.340	.122	.302	15	9	31%	6%	71	-0.3	.190/.255/.287	.097	.266	14	4	33%	6%	46	-0.8
✕David Bote 2023 · MLB	30	42→48	48→55	49→45	44	.217/.287/.362	.145	.277	16	7	27%	7%	82	+0.5	.229/.296/.386	.157	.289	17	8	26%	7%	92	+1.2	.225/.296/.391	.167	.277	18	6	25%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	43	53→50	44→40	40	.226/.285/.396	.170	.278	21	5	27%	5%	90	+1.0	.221/.288/.362	.141	.267	15	9	23%	6%	82	+0.5	.199/.277/.318	.119	.239	11	9	21%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41	54→60	47→45	42	.219/.284/.396	.177	.269	22	7	28%	6%	89	+1.0	.205/.270/.344	.139	.260	17	6	27%	6%	69	-0.4	.170/.239/.268	.098	.215	12	0	27%	7%	35	-0.9
✕Dixon Machado 2022 · AAA	30	43→53	50→45	44→55	48	.222/.295/.375	.153	.274	18	6	26%	9%	89	+0.9	.232/.305/.324	.092	.277	8	8	18%	8%	79	+0.3	.223/.304/.305	.081	.267	8	6	18%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Corey Smith 2011 · AAA	29	42→46	51→55	45→50	40	.223/.265/.381	.158	.267	19	9	25%	5%	77	+0.1	.221/.262/.358	.137	.283	15	7	27%	5%	69	-0.4	.215/.254/.346	.131	.278	16	6	28%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	40→50	47→50	50→55	44	.205/.272/.343	.138	.276	15	13	31%	8%	70	-0.3	.203/.276/.336	.133	.294	16	11	34%	8%	70	-0.3	.193/.274/.320	.127	.282	16	11	35%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	42→45	52→55	46→50	41	.223/.270/.391	.168	.262	21	7	24%	5%	82	+0.5	.218/.264/.370	.152	.259	18	10	23%	5%	73	-0.1	.207/.252/.352	.145	.244	17	10	23%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Mark Saccomanno 2010 · AAA	30	44→46	49→55	47→40	41	.225/.263/.368	.143	.266	17	5	23%	4%	72	-0.2	.217/.257/.345	.128	.271	14	5	25%	5%	63	-0.8	.202/.241/.324	.123	.258	13	0	27%	4%	48	-1.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	52→55	46→50	47	.240/.297/.410	.170	.281	20	8	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.216/.285/.374	.158	.262	17	6	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.180/.259/.335	.155	.212	17	2	24%	9%	64	-0.2
✕JaCoby Jones 2022 · MLB	30	44→47	48→50	43→50	39	.216/.279/.357	.141	.318	16	8	35%	7%	76	+0.1	.205/.259/.328	.123	.341	14	9	41%	6%	60	-1.0	.157/.200/.257	.100	.295	13	7	50%	4%	14	-1.0
✕Mike Olt 2018 · MLB	29	41	49→55	43→40	41	.207/.271/.348	.141	.296	17	3	35%	8%	71	-0.3	.202/.276/.337	.135	.301	15	4	35%	9%	70	-0.3	.172/.266/.307	.135	.257	16	0	37%	10%	56	-0.6
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2019 · AA	30	41	51→55	48→45	41	.215/.266/.377	.162	.254	18	12	24%	5%	76	+0.1	.235/.279/.403	.168	.287	21	8	26%	4%	89	+1.0	.238/.283/.409	.171	.288	22	3	25%	4%	89	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)