Richie Shaffer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | AAATB | 496 | .227/.330/.367 | 11 | 4 | 49 | — | .182/.255/.280 | |
| 2016 | 25 | MLBTB | 54 | .250/.321/.438 | 1 | 0 | 111 | -0.9 | ||
| 2017 | 26 | AAACLE | 546 | .227/.339/.464 | 30 | 4 | 63 | — | .176/.258/.332 | |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 242 | .178/.253/.374 | 10 | 0 | 9 | — | .111/.170/.217 | |
| 2019 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | INTL | Phoenix Desert Dogs | — | 61 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 344 | 370 | 715 | 111 | 400 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 519 | 469 | 119 | 33 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 106 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 254 | 314 | 399 | 712 | 145 | 299 | 20 | 7 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 69 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 493 | 362 | 854 | 85 | 406 | 25 | 25 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 490 | 425 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 221 | 320 | 440 | 760 | 219 | 258 | 24 | 12 | 335 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 88 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 310 | 392 | 702 | 203 | 256 | 36 | 11 | 315 | 101 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -10 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 282 | 244 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 31 | 74 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 270 | 360 | 582 | 942 | 311 | 303 | 26 | 11 | 401 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 175 | 149 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 262 | 364 | 470 | 834 | 208 | 340 | 28 | 13 | 366 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 54 | 48 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 321 | 438 | 758 | 188 | 367 | 33 | 9 | 330 | 111 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -10 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 496 | 428 | 97 | 27 | 0 | 11 | 65 | 135 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 330 | 367 | 697 | 140 | 303 | 27 | 13 | 317 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 546 | 463 | 105 | 18 | 1 | 30 | 67 | 188 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 339 | 464 | 804 | 238 | 302 | 34 | 12 | 354 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 183 | 164 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 247 | 323 | 570 | 159 | 219 | 34 | 10 | 257 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 59 | 55 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 271 | 527 | 798 | 309 | 286 | 39 | 5 | 343 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 142 | 122 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 213 | 314 | 410 | 724 | 197 | 304 | 35 | 11 | 320 | 103 | +0 | -1 | -0 | -20 | +3 | -1.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 519 | 479 | 98 | 28 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 158 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 205 | 253 | 330 | 583 | 125 | 267 | 30 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 490 | 441 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 138 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 188 | 265 | 358 | 623 | 170 | 231 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 88 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 310 | 392 | 702 | 203 | 256 | 36 | 11 | 317 | 101 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -10 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 282 | 257 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 230 | 288 | 490 | 778 | 261 | 260 | 31 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 175 | 156 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 60 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 218 | 295 | 391 | 686 | 173 | 300 | 34 | 9 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 54 | 48 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 321 | 438 | 758 | 188 | 367 | 33 | 9 | 332 | 111 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -10 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 496 | 450 | 82 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 163 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 182 | 255 | 280 | 535 | 98 | 261 | 33 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 546 | 488 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 42 | 228 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 258 | 332 | 590 | 156 | 266 | 42 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 183 | 169 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 165 | 183 | 348 | 83 | 180 | 48 | 7 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 59 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 186 | 321 | 508 | 179 | 261 | 51 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | INTL MLE | Phoenix Desert Dogs | — | 61 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 344 | 370 | 715 | 111 | 400 | 31 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | INTL RAW | Phoenix Desert Dogs | — | 61 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 344 | 370 | 715 | 111 | 400 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 588 | 540 | 111 | 32 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 179 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 206 | 256 | 330 | 586 | 124 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 588 | 516 | 132 | 37 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 123 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 256 | 334 | 395 | 730 | 140 | 308 | 21 | 9 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 490 | 441 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 138 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 188 | 265 | 358 | 623 | 170 | 234 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 490 | 425 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 117 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 221 | 320 | 440 | 760 | 219 | 258 | 24 | 12 | 335 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 545 | 487 | 106 | 26 | 1 | 26 | 44 | 179 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 292 | 435 | 727 | 218 | 278 | 33 | 8 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 545 | 467 | 119 | 30 | 1 | 30 | 64 | 155 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 255 | 353 | 516 | 869 | 261 | 309 | 28 | 12 | 376 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 498 | 94 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 181 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 189 | 261 | 295 | 557 | 106 | 273 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 550 | 476 | 109 | 33 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 153 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 329 | 374 | 703 | 145 | 309 | 28 | 13 | 318 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 546 | 488 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 42 | 228 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 258 | 332 | 590 | 156 | 272 | 42 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 546 | 463 | 105 | 18 | 1 | 30 | 67 | 188 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 339 | 464 | 804 | 238 | 302 | 34 | 12 | 354 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 225 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 118 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 174 | 236 | 410 | 120 | 196 | 49 | 6 | 182 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 219 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 253 | 374 | 628 | 196 | 234 | 36 | 9 | 278 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 588 | 546 | 111 | 32 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 179 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 203 | 256 | 326 | 583 | 123 | 267 | 30 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 490 | 441 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 138 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 188 | 265 | 358 | 623 | 170 | 231 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 545 | 489 | 106 | 26 | 1 | 26 | 44 | 179 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 292 | 434 | 725 | 217 | 272 | 33 | 8 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 496 | 94 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 181 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 261 | 296 | 558 | 107 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 546 | 487 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 42 | 228 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 177 | 258 | 333 | 591 | 156 | 266 | 42 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 224 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 118 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 174 | 237 | 411 | 121 | 200 | 49 | 6 | 182 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 142 | 122 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 213 | 314 | 410 | 724 | 197 | 304 | 35 | 11 | 320 | 61 | +0 | -1 | -0 | -20 | +3 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 558 | 119 | 41 | 0 | 23 | 69 | 229 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 213 | 315 | 410 | 726 | 197 | 305 | 35 | 11 | 320 | 61 | +2 | -4 | -0 | -90 | +14 | -7.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3022 | 2733 | 520 | 133 | 8 | 87 | 224 | 1042 | 36 | 25 | 4 | 190 | 261 | 340 | 601 | 150 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 258 | 61 | +0 | -1 | -0 | -20 | +3 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 113 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 48 | 224 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 263 | 345 | 608 | 153 | 268 | 34 | 7 | 258 | 61 | +2 | -4 | -0 | -90 | +14 | -7.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 183 PAwOBA .252 → .167 (−85)K% 34.4% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷0.925 | ×1.290 | — | — | 48.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.84% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 11.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.014 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.94% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 4.13% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .252 → .167; ISO .159 → .093; BABIP .219 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 59 PAwOBA .333 → .230 (−102)K% 39.0% → 51.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.98% | ÷0.933 | ×1.220 | — | — | 50.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.08% | ÷0.964 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 3.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 11.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 9.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 9.07% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .333 → .230; ISO .309 → .200; BABIP .286 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAColumbus Clippers · 546 PAwOBA .345 → .261 (−85)K% 34.4% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.36% | ÷0.945 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.55% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.91% | ÷1.231 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 7.58% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 89, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 98, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .261; ISO .238 → .164; BABIP .302 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAADurham Bulls · 496 PAwOBA .310 → .241 (−69)K% 27.2% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.22% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.22% | ÷1.093 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.167 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .310 → .241; ISO .140 → .104; BABIP .303 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADurham Bulls · 282 PAwOBA .392 → .329 (−63)K% 26.2% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.24% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷1.148 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.06% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 15.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.048 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.18% | ÷1.039 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 9.47% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .392 → .329; ISO .311 → .269; BABIP .303 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 175 PAwOBA .359 → .292 (−67)K% 28.0% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.14% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 9.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .292; ISO .208 → .174; BABIP .340 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 490 PAwOBA .327 → .271 (−56)K% 23.9% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.88% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷0.945 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.96% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 13.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.057 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .327 → .271; ISO .219 → .177; BABIP .258 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 519 PAwOBA .309 → .255 (−54)K% 20.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.42% | ÷0.950 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.36% | ÷1.010 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.39% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.983 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.888 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .255; ISO .145 → .128; BABIP .299 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).