Jud Fabian — OGILVIE

Jud FabianOF Norfolk Tides

Age 25 R/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION272 act + 181 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.157 / .251 / .270

PA181

HR5

K%38

BB%10

BABIP232

ISO113

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	3 teams	—	99	85	23	8	1	2	12	28	0	1	2	271	361	459	820	188	368	28	12	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	3 teams	—	99	78	26	9	2	3	19	21	0	1	2	333	464	615	1.079	282	411	21	19	456	207	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	2 teams	—	525	455	76	15	1	17	56	227	6	31	8	167	267	316	583	149	271	43	11	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	2 teams	—	525	430	96	19	1	24	81	169	6	31	8	223	354	440	794	216	295	32	15	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	547	493	78	15	1	12	38	226	7	16	6	158	229	266	494	108	252	41	7	217	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	547	474	102	21	1	20	57	177	7	16	6	215	309	390	699	175	289	32	10	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	431	378	61	9	1	14	44	175	2	8	1	161	252	302	554	140	244	41	10	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	431	350	64	11	1	15	72	136	2	8	1	183	325	349	674	166	241	32	17	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	BAL	—	272	235	37	2	0	9	32	100	2	4	2	157	264	281	545	123	217	37	12	253	52	-15	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
YTD	25	AAA	BAL	—	272	220	43	3	0	11	47	83	2	4	2	195	342	359	701	164	248	31	17	321	104	+1	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.7
ROS	25	AAA	BAL	10%	181	159	25	3	0	5	19	69	1	3	1	157	251	270	521	113	235	38	10	249	49	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
ROS	25	MLB	BAL	10%	18	16	3	0	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	188	278	375	653	188	238	39	11	248	48	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
FULL	25	AAA	BAL	—	290	251	40	2	0	10	34	107	2	4	2	159	265	287	552	127	219	37	12	253	52	-16	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.0
TOT	25	AAA	BAL	—	453	394	62	5	0	14	51	169	3	7	3	157	259	276	535	119	223	37	11	252	51	-25	+0	+0	-3	+13	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	BAL	35%	539	475	82	11	1	17	55	197	4	9	3	173	264	307	571	135	245	37	10	260	57	-26	+1	+0	-3	+15	-1.4
2028	27	MLB	BAL	44%	553	488	87	13	1	17	56	196	4	9	3	178	268	314	582	135	249	35	10	265	61	-24	+1	+0	-3	+16	-1.2
2027	26	MLB	BAL	35%	187	165	28	4	0	6	19	68	1	3	1	170	259	303	562	133	248	36	10	259	56	-9	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2028	27	MLB	BAL	44%	243	214	39	6	0	8	25	86	2	4	1	182	274	322	596	140	253	35	10	263	60	-11	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	448	395	70	10	0	15	46	161	3	7	2	177	268	316	584	139	249	36	10	261	58	-21	+1	+0	-3	+13	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	102	15	0	22	67	234	4	10	3	178	269	319	588	141	250	36	10	261	58	-31	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.6
Career	—			—	2875	2533	432	74	6	84	280	1118	24	77	24	171	259	304	563	133	256	39	10	254	52	-155	+6	+0	-17	+81	-8.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	98	17	1	19	63	253	5	17	5	171	259	304	562	133	257	39	10	254	52	-35	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	30	24	4	1	0	0	5	8	0	0	2	167	310	208	519	42	235	27	17	250	49	-2	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	52	44	17	7	2	3	8	9	0	0	0	386	481	841	1.322	455	438	17	15	549	278	+10	+0	—	—	+1	1.2
2022	21	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	17	10	5	1	0	0	6	4	0	1	0	500	688	600	1.288	100	714	24	35	535	267	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2023	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	288	238	42	6	1	15	44	108	4	12	2	176	315	399	714	223	233	38	15	320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+8	1.1
2023	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	237	192	54	13	0	9	37	61	2	19	6	281	403	490	892	208	352	26	16	387	154	+14	+1	—	—	+7	2.3
2024	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	125	113	18	5	0	2	11	51	0	3	1	159	234	257	491	97	262	41	9	226	31	-10	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2024	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	422	361	84	16	1	18	46	126	7	13	5	233	331	432	763	199	296	30	11	335	114	+7	+1	—	—	+12	2.0
2025	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	431	350	64	11	1	15	72	136	2	8	1	183	325	349	674	166	241	32	17	307	93	-4	+1	—	—	+12	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	463	14	8	175	263	310	-3	+0	-1.1	-0.6
	/162	664	21	11	175	263	310	-4.0	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jud Fabian (OGILVIE)	25	30	50	50	60	157/259/276	119	223	14	7	37%	11%	51	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2
✕Will Wilson 2022 · AA	24	36→38	47→50	51→45	39	189/255/321	133	280	16	8	37%	7%	57	-1.2	201/261/333	132	277	17	6	32%	7%	63	-0.8	194/254/308	114	254	15	4	29%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	34→33	47→50	48→45	30	178/225/314	135	284	15	8	42%	4%	43	-2.2	194/265/328	134	314	15	9	40%	7%	64	-0.8	172/260/302	130	280	15	8	41%	8%	52	-1.1
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	42	195/273/320	125	283	13	16	34%	8%	65	-0.7	201/277/315	114	267	11	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	164/253/261	97	214	9	20	27%	8%	38	-1.1
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→27	50→55	41→40	38	171/254/317	146	284	19	4	44%	8%	57	-1.2	206/289/426	220	321	31	5	43%	9%	100	+1.7	188/284/475	288	255	45	2	45%	10%	106	+1.5
✕Garrett Whitley 2022 · AAA	25	39→36	50	50→55	39	193/273/351	158	310	17	15	41%	8%	73	-0.1	193/274/325	132	323	14	18	41%	9%	66	-0.6	169/268/299	130	291	14	26	43%	11%	54	-0.8
✕Kody Kirkland 2008 · AAA	25	33→41	50→55	45	35	182/242/335	153	260	17	9	36%	5%	56	-1.3	194/253/315	121	277	12	10	33%	6%	54	-1.4	186/246/291	105	264	10	9	32%	6%	43	-1.4
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→28	45	50	37	195/254/318	123	282	13	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	212/270/305	93	320	9	17	34%	6%	59	-1.1	219/278/292	73	339	7	24	35%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Jake Adams 2021 · AA	25	37→36	50	44→45	36	199/250/344	145	282	19	7	36%	6%	61	-1.0	190/246/297	107	374	11	9	49%	5%	47	-1.9	78/133/139	61	214	9	4	66%	3%	-40	-1.4
✕Jonathan Engelmann 2022 · AA	25	37	45	47→45	41	189/259/305	116	274	13	9	34%	7%	55	-1.4	197/263/332	135	295	15	9	36%	7%	63	-0.8	145/214/301	156	204	19	9	39%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Mike Olt 2014 · MLB	25	35→42	48→55	46→40	43	187/259/324	137	265	17	4	35%	9%	59	-1.1	197/263/355	158	283	21	3	36%	8%	69	-0.4	195/262/361	166	273	23	1	37%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→37	45→50	48→50	39	184/243/301	118	247	14	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	204/251/338	134	276	16	10	31%	5%	59	-1.1	203/253/332	129	265	15	10	29%	5%	56	-0.7
✕Jason Martinson 2014 · AA	25	36→39	46→45	54→50	38	184/255/307	124	295	15	15	41%	8%	54	-1.4	186/245/294	108	295	12	14	39%	6%	45	-2.1	162/221/268	105	271	12	8	43%	6%	26	-2.4
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2023 · AA	24	37→33	49→50	49→45	35	191/253/335	144	295	18	8	40%	6%	60	-1.0	199/265/327	128	317	15	6	39%	7%	63	-0.9	177/252/292	115	281	15	1	40%	8%	46	-1.3
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Jalen Miller 2022 · AA	25	35→43	50	47→50	38	193/240/343	150	255	19	12	33%	6%	56	-1.3	208/274/348	140	284	15	15	30%	8%	72	-0.2	193/271/328	135	257	13	20	29%	9%	61	-0.6
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	37→41	45→50	51→50	38	192/249/314	122	273	13	15	34%	6%	53	-1.5	201/262/346	145	307	18	11	38%	7%	67	-0.5	192/257/340	148	302	19	10	41%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Matt Gorski 2023 · AA	25	38→33	50→55	56→55	36	199/252/348	149	299	18	20	39%	6%	63	-0.9	198/244/367	169	274	22	18	36%	5%	65	-0.7	186/231/364	178	245	24	19	35%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	36	44→45	47→50	43	187/255/303	116	259	12	5	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/267/312	121	296	14	14	37%	9%	60	-1.0	169/257/271	103	275	11	16	40%	10%	43	-1.1