Jud Fabian

CF Norfolk Tides
Age 26 R/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AA2 orgs547.215/.309/.390201643—.169/.242/.280
202524AAABAL431.183/.325/.34915850—.158/.257/.278
202625AAABAL451.191/.329/.33614645—.155/.256/.255
2027PROJ10% MLB26MLBBAL16.172/.264/.2910056-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB27MLBBAL70.175/.266/.2952158-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$3M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%88
Chase%85
Max EV57
Speed38
Z-Con%20
K%16
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%
CompsConnor Kaiser (age 26) · Andrés Alvarez (age 27) · Jake Means (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†56
AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .264 / .291
PA16
HR0
K%38
BB%12
BABIP251
ISO117
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +1.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 3024 4100 580 02 167310208519 42235 2717 250 17 — — — — — —
202221 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 5244 17723 890 00 3864818411.322 455438 1715 549 175 — — — — — —
202221 ROKFCL Orioles — 1710 5100 640 10 5006886001.288 100714 2435 535 195 — — — — — —
202322 AABowie Baysox — 288238 426115 441084 122 176315399714 223233 3815 320 40 — — — — — —
202322 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 237192 541309 37612 196 281403490892 208352 2616 387 94 — — — — — —
202423 AAANorfolk Tides — 125113 18502 11510 31 159234257491 97262 419 226 8 — — — — — —
202423 AABowie Baysox — 422361 8416118 461267 135 233331432763 199296 3011 335 53 — — — — — —
202524 AAANorfolk Tides — 431350 6411115 721362 81 183325349674 166241 3217 307 50 — — — — — —
202625 AAANorfolk Tides — 451366 7011014 711384 63 191329336665 145256 3116 303 45 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 3026 4100 3110 02 154241192434 38207 3710 194 17 — — — — — —
202221 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 5246 15622 6120 00 3264046741.078 348376 2312 427 175 — — — — — —
202221 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 1712 5100 460 10 4175625001.062 83595 3524 456 195 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 288250 32419 321334 122 128238260498 132209 4611 228 40 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 237206 461009 23812 196 223307403710 180290 3410 307 94 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 125116 15401 8570 31 129185190375 60239 466 180 8 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 422375 6812111 321587 135 181258307565 125255 378 247 53 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 431374 5910111 481692 81 158257278535 120230 3911 242 50 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 451388 609010 491664 63 155256255511 101221 3711 235 45 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE3 teams — 9985 24822 12280 12 282371494865 212386 2812 361 131 — — — — — —
202221 A RAW3 teams — 9978 26923 19210 12 3334646151.079 282411 2119 456 131 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLE2 teams — 525457 7915118 542146 318 173269328597 155263 4110 264 65 — — — — — —
202322 AA RAW2 teams — 525430 9619124 811696 318 223354440794 216295 3215 350 65 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 547491 8316112 402167 166 169242279521 110263 397 232 43 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAW2 teams — 547474 10221120 571777 166 215309390699 175289 3210 310 43 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 431374 5910111 481692 81 158257278535 120242 3911 242 50 — — — — — —
202524 AAA RAWNorfolk Tides — 431350 6411115 721362 81 183325349674 166241 3217 307 50 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 451388 609010 491664 63 155256255511 101230 3711 235 45 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAWNorfolk Tides — 451366 7011014 711384 63 191329336665 145256 3116 303 45 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE3 teams — 9987 24822 12280 12 276371483854 207362 2812 361 131 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLE2 teams — 525460 7915118 542146 318 172269326595 154246 4110 264 65 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 547495 8316112 402167 166 168242277518 109251 397 232 43 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 431378 5910111 481692 81 156257275532 119230 3911 242 50 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 451395 609010 491664 63 152256251507 99221 3711 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 547495 8316112 402167 166 168242277518 109251 397 232 43 — — — — — —
202524 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 431378 5910111 481692 81 156257275532 119230 3911 242 50 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 451395 609010 491664 63 152256251507 99221 3711 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEBAL 10% 380335 571019 391373 62 169261283545 115248 3610 251 56 -20 +0 +3 +1 +8 -0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXBAL 10% 1614 2000 260 00 172264291555 119251 3812 255 56 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEBAL 31% 225198 33605 23802 31 172263287550 115250 3610 253 58 -11 +0 +2 +1 +5 -0.4
202827 MLB CTXBAL 31% 7062 11202 7251 10 175266295561 120253 3610 257 58 -4 +0 +1 +0 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 7062 11202 7251 10 177271306578 129257 3610 257 55 -4 +0 +1 +0 +2 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650576 10319019 652329 90 179272311583 132258 3610 257 55 -33 +2 +5 +2 +14 -1.0
Career— MLE — 24332130 36168562 24292922 6722 169261293554 124256 3810 250 55 -19 +0 +3 +1 +8 -0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650569 9618117 652486 186 169261293554 125254 3810 250 55 -33 +0 +5 +2 +14 -1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 451 PAwOBA .298 → .235 (−63)K% 30.6% → 36.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.60%÷1.000×1.200——36.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.52%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01810.90%
HBP% /PA0.89%—×0.940—×1.0180.85%
Singles /BIP19.74%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.01817.75%
Doubles /BIP4.82%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0183.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP6.14%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0184.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .298 → .235; ISO .145 → .108; BABIP .256 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 431 PAwOBA .302 → .242 (−60)K% 31.6% → 39.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.55%÷0.967×1.200——39.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.71%÷1.063×0.690—×1.03311.21%
HBP% /PA0.46%—×0.940—×1.0330.45%
Singles /BIP17.29%÷0.959×0.930×0.995×1.03317.22%
Doubles /BIP5.14%÷0.978×0.830×0.995×1.0334.49%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷0.900×0.970×0.995×1.0330.52%
Home runs /BIP7.01%÷0.945×0.700—×1.0335.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .302 → .242; ISO .166 → .131; BABIP .241 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 422 PAwOBA .330 → .247 (−84)K% 29.9% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.86%÷0.970×1.220——37.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.90%÷1.028×0.700—×1.0127.51%
HBP% /PA1.66%—×0.850—×1.0121.43%
Singles /BIP20.85%÷1.008×0.970×0.951×1.01219.31%
Doubles /BIP6.81%÷1.062×0.860×0.951×1.0125.30%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷1.135×0.950×0.951×1.0120.34%
Home runs /BIP7.66%÷1.249×0.780—×1.0124.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .330 → .247; ISO .199 → .128; BABIP .296 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 125 PAwOBA .222 → .180 (−42)K% 40.8% → 45.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.80%÷1.070×1.200——45.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.80%÷0.987×0.690—×1.0486.45%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP17.74%÷0.962×0.930×0.950×1.04817.07%
Doubles /BIP8.06%÷1.006×0.830×0.950×1.0486.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP3.23%÷0.996×0.700—×1.0482.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .222 → .180; ISO .097 → .073; BABIP .262 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 288 PAwOBA .313 → .228 (−85)K% 37.5% → 46.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.50%÷0.988×1.220——46.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.28%÷0.989×0.700—×1.02711.10%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.850—×1.0271.21%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷0.965×0.970×0.950×1.02715.09%
Doubles /BIP4.62%÷1.046×0.860×0.950×1.0273.70%
Triples /BIP0.77%÷0.998×0.950×0.950×1.0270.71%
Home runs /BIP11.54%÷1.208×0.780—×1.0277.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .228; ISO .223 → .141; BABIP .233 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 237 PAwOBA .387 → .307 (−80)K% 25.7% → 34.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.74%÷0.986×1.310——34.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.61%÷0.982×0.600—×0.9989.52%
HBP% /PA0.84%—×0.770—×0.9980.65%
Singles /BIP24.43%÷1.037×0.870×1.001×0.99820.47%
Doubles /BIP9.92%÷0.980×0.780×1.001×0.9987.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850×1.001×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP6.87%÷0.912×0.880—×0.9986.62%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .387 → .307; ISO .208 → .191; BABIP .352 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 52 PAwOBA .534 → .427 (−107)K% 17.3% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.31%÷1.061×1.360——22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷0.979×0.690——10.85%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷0.955×0.920——13.77%
Doubles /BIP20.00%÷0.976×0.830——17.01%
Triples /BIP5.71%÷1.150×0.910——4.52%
Home runs /BIP8.57%÷1.128×0.800——6.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .534 → .427; ISO .455 → .351; BABIP .438 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 30 PAwOBA .253 → .194 (−59)K% 26.7% → 35.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷0.991×1.310——35.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.966×0.600—×1.01210.47%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷0.980×0.870—×1.01216.85%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.955×0.780—×1.0125.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.964×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.029×0.880—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .253 → .194; ISO .042 → .035; BABIP .235 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).