Jud FabianOF
Norfolk Tides
Age 25
R/L
6'0" / 195 lbs
AAA
HR +8%BB -5%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†74
AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .259 / .311
PA320
HR9
K%40
BB%9
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
30→30
PWR
50→50
SPD
50→50
EYE
54↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.1peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-11M | $-11M | +$0.0M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | 3 teams | 99 | 85 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .271 | .361 | .459 | .820 | .188 | .375 | 29 | 12 | .360 | 134 | +4 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | 2 teams | 525 | 457 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 54 | 220 | 6 | 31 | 8 | .173 | .269 | .335 | .604 | .162 | .267 | 42 | 10 | .263 | 59 | -24 | +3 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | 2 teams | 547 | 492 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 222 | 7 | 16 | 6 | .165 | .236 | .278 | .515 | .114 | .258 | 41 | 7 | .230 | 34 | -41 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -2.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 431 | 375 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 168 | 2 | 8 | 1 | .155 | .252 | .288 | .540 | .133 | .227 | 39 | 11 | .246 | 46 | -26 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +12 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 83 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .186 | .313 | .371 | .685 | .186 | .257 | 37 | 14 | .316 | 100 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 237 | 209 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 94 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .182 | .272 | .335 | .607 | .153 | .271 | 40 | 10 | .269 | 64 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| TOT | 25 | MLB | BAL | 320 | 279 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 125 | 3 | 4 | 3 | .183 | .283 | .344 | .627 | .161 | .273 | 39 | 11 | .281 | 74 | -10 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB 25% | BAL | 365 | 319 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 125 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .191 | .287 | .342 | .629 | .150 | .262 | 34 | 11 | .284 | 75 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB 43% | BAL | 388 | 339 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 42 | 130 | 4 | 7 | 2 | .195 | .291 | .348 | .639 | .153 | .265 | 34 | 11 | .287 | 78 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB 52% | BAL | 400 | 350 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 132 | 4 | 7 | 2 | .197 | .292 | .349 | .641 | .151 | .266 | 33 | 11 | .287 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB 63% | BAL | 400 | 350 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 132 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .197 | .292 | .349 | .641 | .151 | .266 | 33 | 11 | .286 | 77 | -10 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB 73% | BAL | 398 | 348 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 133 | 4 | 5 | 2 | .190 | .286 | .330 | .617 | .141 | .264 | 33 | 11 | .283 | 75 | -11 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB 90% | BAL | 386 | 338 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 42 | 131 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .189 | .285 | .334 | .619 | .145 | .262 | 34 | 11 | .279 | 72 | -12 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +11 | -0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 370 | 324 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 127 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .185 | .281 | .324 | .605 | .139 | .260 | 34 | 11 | .275 | 68 | -13 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 341 | 299 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 119 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .184 | .278 | .321 | .599 | .137 | .258 | 35 | 11 | .269 | 64 | -14 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +10 | -1.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 298 | 262 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 107 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .179 | .274 | .309 | .583 | .130 | .256 | 36 | 11 | .263 | 59 | -14 | +0 | -5 | -2 | +8 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5185 | 4547 | 836 | 147 | 14 | 159 | 537 | 1869 | 47 | 100 | 31 | .184 | .277 | .327 | .604 | .143 | .265 | 36 | 10 | .271 | 66 | -202 | +8 | -20 | -31 | +147 | -10.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 570 | 105 | 18 | 2 | 20 | 67 | 234 | 6 | 13 | 4 | .184 | .277 | .328 | .605 | .144 | .265 | 36 | 10 | .271 | 66 | -25 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | -1.2 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 30 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .167 | .310 | .208 | .519 | .042 | .235 | 27 | 17 | .250 | 49 | -2 | -1 | — | — | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 52 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .386 | .481 | .841 | 1.322 | .455 | .438 | 17 | 15 | .549 | 278 | +10 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 17 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .688 | .600 | 1.288 | .100 | .714 | 24 | 35 | .535 | 267 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +0 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 288 | 238 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 44 | 108 | 4 | 12 | 2 | .176 | .315 | .399 | .714 | .223 | .233 | 38 | 15 | .320 | 103 | +1 | +2 | — | — | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 237 | 192 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 61 | 2 | 19 | 6 | .281 | .403 | .490 | .892 | .208 | .352 | 26 | 16 | .387 | 154 | +14 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 125 | 113 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .159 | .234 | .257 | .491 | .097 | .262 | 41 | 9 | .226 | 31 | -10 | +0 | — | — | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 422 | 361 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 46 | 126 | 7 | 13 | 5 | .233 | .331 | .432 | .763 | .199 | .296 | 30 | 11 | .335 | 114 | +7 | +1 | — | — | +12 | 2.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 431 | 350 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 72 | 136 | 2 | 8 | 1 | .183 | .325 | .349 | .674 | .166 | .241 | 32 | 17 | .307 | 93 | -4 | +1 | — | — | +12 | 1.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jud Fabian (OGILVIE) | 25 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 60 | .175/.259/.311 | .136 | .273 | 9 | 7 | 40% | 9% | 58 | -0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB |
26 | 36→33 | 52→55 | 50 | 44 | .192/.280/.359 | .167 | .275 | 20 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .185/.266/.345 | .160 | .294 | 20 | 12 | 41% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .162/.246/.317 | .156 | .267 | 21 | 12 | 45% | 8% | 51 | -1.1 |
|
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA |
25 | 36 | 45→50 | 48→50 | 37 | .186/.248/.306 | .120 | .290 | 14 | 12 | 39% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .185/.245/.287 | .102 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 43 | -2.2 | .153/.212/.244 | .092 | .224 | 3 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 14 | -1.0 |
|
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA |
25 | 39→38 | 46→50 | 54→55 | 43 | .195/.275/.328 | .133 | .280 | 14 | 16 | 34% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .196/.270/.305 | .109 | .263 | 10 | 17 | 28% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .156/.241/.247 | .091 | .208 | 8 | 20 | 27% | 8% | 30 | -1.4 |
|
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA |
25 | 36→41 | 51→55 | 51→50 | 43 | .193/.267/.354 | .161 | .275 | 19 | 14 | 36% | 9% | 71 | -0.3 | .212/.286/.373 | .161 | .316 | 18 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 84 | +0.6 | .207/.288/.362 | .155 | .320 | 17 | 12 | 37% | 10% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Jeter Downs 2023 · MLB |
25 | 31→41 | 49→50 | 53→55 | 38 | .175/.246/.310 | .136 | .249 | 18 | 21 | 37% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .198/.279/.340 | .142 | .275 | 16 | 23 | 32% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .197/.289/.341 | .144 | .269 | 13 | 27 | 30% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Chris Williams 2022 · AA |
25 | 36→31 | 45→55 | 50→40 | 45 | .177/.269/.302 | .125 | .295 | 12 | 5 | 41% | 11% | 59 | -1.1 | .194/.271/.372 | .178 | .288 | 24 | 5 | 39% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .180/.262/.367 | .188 | .250 | 27 | 4 | 39% | 9% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Garrett Whitley 2022 · AAA |
25 | 39→38 | 48→50 | 49→55 | 39 | .188/.270/.337 | .149 | .320 | 15 | 14 | 43% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 | .196/.278/.332 | .136 | .320 | 15 | 18 | 40% | 9% | 70 | -0.3 | .175/.274/.307 | .132 | .292 | 15 | 26 | 41% | 11% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA |
25 | 34→29 | 46→45 | 49→50 | 44 | .182/.254/.300 | .117 | .244 | 15 | 18 | 31% | 8% | 52 | -1.6 | .203/.279/.317 | .114 | .274 | 13 | 12 | 29% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .204/.281/.310 | .106 | .271 | 11 | 8 | 28% | 9% | 64 | -0.4 |
|
✕Aaron Palensky 2023 · AA |
24 | 42→32 | 48→55 | 48→55 | 42 | .203/.283/.350 | .147 | .312 | 14 | 10 | 37% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .201/.287/.362 | .161 | .274 | 18 | 19 | 32% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .184/.279/.346 | .163 | .237 | 19 | 25 | 30% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Matt Gorski 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→34 | 52→60 | 55 | 36 | .201/.255/.362 | .161 | .296 | 21 | 19 | 39% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .202/.249/.372 | .170 | .277 | 22 | 19 | 35% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .192/.237/.369 | .177 | .251 | 24 | 19 | 34% | 5% | 61 | -0.6 |
|
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA |
25 | 36→35 | 45 | 51→55 | 38 | .187/.245/.306 | .118 | .262 | 14 | 14 | 33% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .203/.276/.332 | .129 | .299 | 15 | 15 | 35% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .230/.309/.359 | .129 | .323 | 13 | 18 | 30% | 8% | 87 | +0.4 |
|
✕Jacob Heyward 2021 · AA |
25 | 41→40 | 45→50 | 44→50 | 46 | .197/.288/.319 | .122 | .302 | 13 | 11 | 36% | 10% | 71 | -0.3 | .190/.272/.334 | .144 | .297 | 18 | 6 | 40% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .163/.247/.307 | .144 | .245 | 21 | 2 | 41% | 8% | 49 | -0.9 |
|
✕Luke Ritter 2023 · AAA |
26 | 38→43 | 49→55 | 46→45 | 38 | .193/.263/.335 | .141 | .298 | 18 | 8 | 40% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .205/.288/.366 | .161 | .311 | 21 | 6 | 38% | 9% | 83 | +0.6 | .200/.290/.358 | .157 | .304 | 21 | 4 | 38% | 9% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕Logan Hill 2018 · AA |
25 | 40 | 49→50 | 45 | 39 | .208/.269/.354 | .146 | .290 | 17 | 7 | 34% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .206/.268/.356 | .150 | .296 | 19 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .195/.258/.345 | .150 | .278 | 19 | 1 | 36% | 6% | 62 | -0.7 |
|
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 46→50 | 49→50 | 45 | .202/.285/.330 | .128 | .282 | 15 | 9 | 32% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .215/.302/.373 | .158 | .297 | 19 | 5 | 32% | 9% | 92 | +1.2 | .211/.305/.392 | .181 | .283 | 23 | 1 | 32% | 10% | 92 | +0.5 |
|
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA |
25 | 32→29 | 51→55 | 42→40 | 38 | .174/.254/.327 | .153 | .277 | 20 | 5 | 43% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .190/.273/.382 | .192 | .303 | 27 | 5 | 44% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .166/.260/.397 | .231 | .247 | 35 | 2 | 47% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Gabe Matthews 2023 · AAA |
25 | 37→41 | 48→50 | 47→40 | 41 | .188/.271/.327 | .138 | .287 | 15 | 5 | 38% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .206/.299/.338 | .132 | .309 | 15 | 5 | 35% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .200/.311/.326 | .126 | .298 | 15 | 2 | 34% | 11% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Stone Garrett 2021 · AA |
25 | 39→37 | 47→60 | 51→50 | 30 | .201/.238/.335 | .135 | .305 | 15 | 15 | 39% | 3% | 53 | -1.5 | .216/.257/.388 | .172 | .295 | 22 | 15 | 34% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 | .220/.282/.390 | .169 | .299 | 21 | 11 | 32% | 7% | 85 | +0.4 |
|
✕Travis Demeritte 2019 · AA |
24 | 36→43 | 50→60 | 47→50 | 39 | .190/.251/.347 | .157 | .282 | 18 | 8 | 38% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .214/.279/.390 | .176 | .309 | 21 | 8 | 36% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .208/.274/.387 | .179 | .299 | 22 | 9 | 37% | 8% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕Will Wilson 2023 · AAA |
25 | 39 | 50 | 45 | 39 | .199/.264/.346 | .147 | .300 | 19 | 7 | 39% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .201/.259/.319 | .118 | .271 | 14 | 6 | 30% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .194/.253/.297 | .103 | .254 | 12 | 6 | 28% | 6% | 46 | -1.5 |