Jud Fabian — OGILVIE

Jud FabianCF Norfolk Tides

Age 25 R/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION426 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP236

ISO118

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	30	24	4	1	0	0	5	8	0	0	2	167	310	208	519	42	235	27	17	250	55	-2	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	52	44	17	7	2	3	8	9	0	0	0	386	481	841	1.322	455	438	17	15	549	258	+10	+0	—	—	+1	1.1
2022	21	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	17	10	5	1	0	0	6	4	0	1	0	500	688	600	1.288	100	714	24	35	535	248	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
2023	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	288	238	42	6	1	15	44	108	4	12	2	176	315	399	714	223	233	38	15	320	103	+1	+2	—	—	+6	0.9
2023	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	237	192	54	13	0	9	37	61	2	19	6	281	403	490	892	208	352	26	16	387	148	+14	+1	—	—	+5	2.0
2024	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	125	113	18	5	0	2	11	51	0	3	1	159	234	257	491	97	262	41	9	226	39	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2024	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	422	361	84	16	1	18	46	126	7	13	5	233	331	432	763	199	296	30	11	335	113	+6	+1	—	—	+9	1.6
2025	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	431	350	64	11	1	15	72	136	2	8	1	183	325	349	674	166	241	32	17	307	94	-3	+1	—	—	+9	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	30	26	4	1	0	0	3	11	0	0	2	154	241	192	434	38	216	37	10	202	23	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	52	47	14	6	1	2	5	12	0	0	0	298	365	596	961	298	376	23	10	426	174	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	17	12	5	1	0	0	4	6	0	1	0	417	562	500	1.062	83	609	35	24	464	200	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2023	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	288	251	31	4	1	9	31	133	4	12	2	124	231	255	486	131	199	46	11	221	36	-22	+2	—	—	+6	-1.4
2023	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	237	204	47	11	0	8	25	83	2	19	6	230	320	402	722	172	305	35	11	310	96	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.6
2024	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	125	116	15	4	0	1	8	57	0	3	1	129	185	190	375	60	227	46	6	172	3	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.2
2024	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	422	376	66	12	1	11	31	158	7	13	5	176	251	301	552	125	246	37	7	241	49	-25	+1	—	—	+9	-1.6
2025	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	431	375	57	9	1	11	47	169	2	8	1	152	250	269	519	117	222	39	11	235	45	-28	+1	—	—	+9	-1.8
2022	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	99	85	23	8	1	2	12	29	0	1	2	271	361	459	820	188	375	29	12	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	99	78	26	9	2	3	19	21	0	1	2	333	464	615	1.079	282	411	21	19	456	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	525	455	78	15	1	17	56	216	6	31	8	171	271	321	592	149	266	41	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	525	430	96	19	1	24	81	169	6	31	8	223	354	440	794	216	295	32	15	350	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	547	492	81	16	1	12	39	216	7	16	6	165	236	274	510	110	255	39	7	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	547	474	102	21	1	20	57	177	7	16	6	215	309	390	699	175	289	32	10	310	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	431	375	57	9	1	11	47	169	2	8	1	152	250	269	519	117	231	39	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	431	350	64	11	1	15	72	136	2	8	1	183	325	349	674	166	241	32	17	307	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	99	87	23	8	1	2	12	29	0	1	2	264	361	448	809	184	368	29	12	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	525	458	78	15	1	17	56	216	6	31	8	170	271	319	590	148	247	41	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	547	496	81	16	1	12	39	216	7	16	6	163	236	272	508	109	242	39	7	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	431	379	57	9	1	11	47	169	2	8	1	150	250	266	516	116	222	39	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	525	458	78	15	1	17	56	216	6	31	8	170	271	319	590	148	247	41	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	547	496	81	16	1	12	39	216	7	16	6	163	236	272	508	109	242	39	7	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	431	379	57	9	1	11	47	169	2	8	1	150	250	266	516	116	222	39	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	BAL	—	426	367	57	9	0	10	45	154	4	6	3	155	255	262	516	106	226	36	11	234	45	-28	+0	+0	+2	+9	-1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA RAW	BAL	—	426	346	67	11	0	14	66	128	4	6	3	194	329	347	676	153	254	30	15	306	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AAA MLE	BAL	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		232	33	11	242	50	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	25	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						236	0	0	239	50	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	BAL	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	239	45	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	AAA MLE	BAL	—	435	375	58	9	0	10	46	157	4	6	3	155	254	259	513	104	225	36	11	234	45	-29	+0	+0	+2	+9	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	35%	365	323	55	9	1	10	36	129	3	6	2	170	260	297	557	127	240	35	10	253	57	-19	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	388	342	59	10	1	10	39	133	4	6	2	173	265	295	560	123	245	34	10	258	61	-18	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	401	354	63	11	1	11	40	136	4	6	2	178	269	308	577	130	247	34	10	261	63	-18	+0	-1	+1	+9	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	35%	127	112	18	3	0	3	13	45	1	2	1	161	254	268	522	107	244	35	10	251	57	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	171	150	27	5	0	5	17	59	2	3	1	180	272	313	586	133	249	35	10	256	61	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	196	172	31	6	0	5	20	66	2	3	1	180	273	302	576	122	251	34	10	259	63	-9	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	495	435	76	14	0	13	50	170	5	8	3	175	267	297	564	122	247	34	10	256	57	-23	+0	-0	+2	+11	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	99	18	0	17	66	223	7	11	4	173	267	294	562	121	245	34	10	256	57	-30	+1	-0	+2	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2765	2434	417	78	7	73	270	1031	26	74	23	171	261	299	560	128	254	37	10	252	57	-55	+1	-1	+4	+25	-2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	98	18	2	17	63	242	6	17	5	171	260	299	559	128	254	37	10	252	57	-31	+1	-0	+2	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.8	526	14	8	174	262	298	-3	+0	-1.3	-0.6
/162	664	18	10	-3.6	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jud Fabian (OGILVIE)	25	30	50	50	60	157/250/268	110	232	8	5	37%	10%	50	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	35→31	44→45	49→50	44	183/254/292	109	241	13	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	205/280/316	111	277	12	12	28%	9%	70	-0.8	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	43→50	48→50	38	180/243/288	107	283	11	11	39%	7%	50	-2.3	191/251/293	102	287	8	10	34%	7%	53	-2.1	154/212/246	92	221	3	6	30%	7%	25	-1.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	44	198/278/323	125	278	13	16	32%	8%	72	-0.7	198/274/306	108	267	10	16	28%	8%	65	-1.2	157/242/244	87	210	7	20	27%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Will Wilson 2022 · AA	24	37→38	47→50	51→45	39	189/255/319	130	283	15	8	37%	7%	61	-1.5	198/259/322	124	274	15	6	32%	7%	63	-1.3	191/251/297	106	252	13	4	29%	7%	52	-1.5
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Kody Kirkland 2008 · AAA	25	34→41	48→50	45	36	183/242/328	145	256	16	9	35%	5%	59	-1.6	195/253/309	114	275	10	10	31%	6%	58	-1.7	187/247/286	99	263	8	9	31%	6%	49	-1.6
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA	25	32→28	50	41→40	39	172/256/318	146	278	19	4	43%	8%	63	-1.4	191/275/364	173	303	23	5	42%	9%	80	-0.1	162/257/361	199	239	29	2	44%	10%	70	-0.6
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	34→28	49→50	43→40	42	187/252/323	136	248	18	5	32%	7%	62	-1.4	195/274/335	140	245	18	5	28%	8%	73	-0.6	196/273/324	129	231	14	4	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	189/257/298	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	192/267/306	114	292	12	14	36%	9%	63	-1.3	172/260/273	101	275	11	16	38%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Garrett Whitley 2022 · AAA	25	39→37	48→50	50→55	40	191/272/337	146	307	15	15	40%	8%	73	-0.6	195/276/319	124	318	13	18	39%	9%	70	-0.8	173/272/292	120	289	12	26	40%	11%	59	-1.0
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Jake Adams 2021 · AA	25	38→35	49→50	44→45	37	201/252/344	143	280	19	7	35%	6%	66	-1.1	194/250/303	109	354	12	9	46%	5%	56	-1.9	93/148/162	69	213	10	4	59%	3%	-14	-1.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	38→40	44→50	51→50	39	193/251/307	114	272	12	15	33%	6%	57	-1.8	199/261/336	137	306	16	11	38%	7%	68	-1.0	179/258/334	155	270	19	6	39%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Jonathan Engelmann 2022 · AA	25	38	43→45	47→45	41	191/260/298	107	275	11	9	33%	7%	59	-1.7	197/262/325	128	287	13	9	34%	7%	66	-1.1	146/213/292	147	198	17	9	36%	6%	37	-0.8
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA	25	38→40	43→45	42→45	48	191/276/299	108	261	11	5	30%	10%	65	-1.2	196/278/300	104	279	9	7	31%	9%	66	-1.1	110/223/191	81	162	7	0	33%	9%	22	-1.0
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→30	44→45	50→45	36	193/247/304	111	290	12	9	36%	6%	55	-2.0	192/247/322	130	336	15	8	45%	6%	59	-1.6	160/217/294	135	287	17	6	48%	5%	39	-1.1
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	42→45	45→50	39	185/255/296	111	276	9	10	35%	7%	57	-1.8	191/270/296	105	294	8	13	35%	8%	62	-1.4	163/254/261	99	255	6	16	35%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2023 · AA	24	38→35	49→50	49→45	36	194/258/335	141	295	17	8	39%	6%	67	-1.1	202/267/325	123	314	14	6	38%	7%	68	-1.0	183/255/292	109	285	14	1	38%	8%	53	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps