Jason Martinson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 27 | AAASyracuse Chie… | 507 | .218/.287/.369 | 12 | 11 | 35 | — | .167/.218/.284 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAATEX | 204 | .208/.286/.361 | 7 | 0 | 20 | — | .143/.202/.233 |
| 2018 | 29 | AAASyracuse Chie… | 23 | .158/.304/.316 | 1 | 0 | 29 | — | .150/.261/.300 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 523 | 433 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 144 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 363 | 448 | 811 | 196 | 327 | 28 | 13 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 265 | 237 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 215 | 285 | 409 | 694 | 194 | 258 | 30 | 8 | 302 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 321 | 265 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 88 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 272 | 393 | 449 | 842 | 177 | 367 | 27 | 15 | 375 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 43 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 286 | 378 | 664 | 189 | 300 | 37 | 12 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 196 | 173 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 273 | 306 | 580 | 121 | 246 | 29 | 10 | 263 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 305 | 254 | 68 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 89 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 268 | 380 | 484 | 864 | 217 | 354 | 29 | 12 | 377 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 522 | 466 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 127 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 307 | 358 | 666 | 122 | 300 | 24 | 9 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 559 | 495 | 108 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 51 | 189 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 218 | 300 | 380 | 680 | 162 | 307 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 507 | 455 | 99 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 179 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 218 | 287 | 369 | 656 | 152 | 325 | 35 | 7 | 290 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 204 | 183 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 208 | 286 | 361 | 646 | 153 | 310 | 37 | 9 | 291 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 304 | 316 | 620 | 158 | 182 | 30 | 17 | 290 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 523 | 460 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 194 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 202 | 280 | 352 | 633 | 150 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 265 | 245 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 113 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 147 | 196 | 265 | 461 | 118 | 215 | 43 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 321 | 282 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 122 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 206 | 296 | 312 | 608 | 106 | 326 | 38 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 196 | 179 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 162 | 227 | 251 | 478 | 89 | 230 | 33 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 305 | 269 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 136 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 193 | 277 | 349 | 626 | 156 | 313 | 45 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 522 | 481 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 210 | 261 | 308 | 568 | 98 | 285 | 31 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 559 | 509 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 217 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 179 | 244 | 291 | 535 | 112 | 272 | 39 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 507 | 468 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 226 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 167 | 218 | 284 | 503 | 118 | 283 | 45 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 204 | 189 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 143 | 202 | 233 | 435 | 90 | 254 | 47 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 150 | 153 | 35 | 13 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 523 | 460 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 194 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 202 | 280 | 352 | 633 | 150 | 302 | 37 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 523 | 433 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 144 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 363 | 448 | 811 | 196 | 327 | 28 | 13 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 629 | 566 | 103 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 252 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 182 | 253 | 302 | 555 | 120 | 285 | 40 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 629 | 539 | 130 | 17 | 7 | 23 | 73 | 183 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 241 | 340 | 427 | 767 | 186 | 315 | 29 | 12 | 338 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 447 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 201 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 318 | 579 | 134 | 289 | 40 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 501 | 427 | 100 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 145 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 234 | 338 | 412 | 750 | 178 | 309 | 29 | 12 | 333 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 522 | 481 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 210 | 261 | 308 | 568 | 98 | 295 | 31 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 522 | 466 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 127 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 236 | 307 | 358 | 666 | 122 | 300 | 24 | 9 | 297 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 559 | 509 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 217 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 179 | 244 | 291 | 535 | 112 | 277 | 39 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 559 | 495 | 108 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 51 | 189 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 218 | 300 | 380 | 680 | 162 | 307 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 507 | 468 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 226 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 167 | 218 | 284 | 503 | 118 | 291 | 45 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 507 | 455 | 99 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 179 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 218 | 287 | 369 | 656 | 152 | 325 | 35 | 7 | 290 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 204 | 189 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 143 | 202 | 233 | 435 | 90 | 256 | 47 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 204 | 183 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 208 | 286 | 361 | 646 | 153 | 310 | 37 | 9 | 291 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 150 | 182 | 35 | 13 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 304 | 316 | 620 | 158 | 182 | 30 | 17 | 290 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 523 | 468 | 93 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 194 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 199 | 280 | 346 | 627 | 147 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 629 | 570 | 103 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 252 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 181 | 253 | 300 | 553 | 119 | 276 | 40 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 449 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 201 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 316 | 577 | 134 | 281 | 40 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 522 | 484 | 101 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 209 | 261 | 306 | 566 | 97 | 285 | 31 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 559 | 510 | 91 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 217 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 178 | 244 | 290 | 534 | 112 | 272 | 39 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 507 | 471 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 226 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 166 | 218 | 282 | 501 | 117 | 283 | 45 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 204 | 188 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 144 | 202 | 234 | 436 | 90 | 254 | 47 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 150 | 153 | 35 | 13 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3468 | 3140 | 578 | 86 | 25 | 80 | 227 | 1355 | 49 | 118 | 24 | 184 | 250 | 304 | 554 | 120 | 287 | 39 | 7 | 242 | 50 | -208 | +14 | +0 | +37 | +75 | -8.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 109 | 16 | 5 | 15 | 43 | 254 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 185 | 251 | 306 | 557 | 121 | 289 | 39 | 7 | 242 | 50 | -39 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 23 PAwOBA .284 → .211 (−73)K% 30.4% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.044 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.39% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 12.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 14.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.205 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 5.65% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .211; ISO .158 → .108; BABIP .182 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 204 PAwOBA .283 → .198 (−85)K% 37.3% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.25% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 46.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷1.039 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.039 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.117 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 4.49% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .283 → .198; ISO .153 → .096; BABIP .310 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 507 PAwOBA .284 → .220 (−65)K% 35.3% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.31% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.71% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.992 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .284 → .220; ISO .152 → .122; BABIP .325 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 559 PAwOBA .297 → .238 (−59)K% 33.8% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.81% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.12% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.003 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .297 → .238; ISO .162 → .116; BABIP .307 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 522 PAwOBA .291 → .245 (−47)K% 24.3% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.33% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.01% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 22.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.01% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.95% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .291 → .245; ISO .122 → .096; BABIP .300 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 305 PAwOBA .374 → .272 (−101)K% 29.2% → 44.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.18% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 44.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.46% | ÷0.991 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.85% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 22.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 6.84% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .374 → .272; ISO .217 → .162; BABIP .354 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAHarrisburg Senators · 196 PAwOBA .258 → .216 (−42)K% 28.6% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.80% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.883 | ×0.860 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 130, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .258 → .216; ISO .121 → .098; BABIP .246 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AHagerstown Suns · 321 PAwOBA .366 → .277 (−89)K% 27.4% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.41% | ÷0.970 | ×1.340 | — | — | 37.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.02% | ÷0.960 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.12% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.980 | 25.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×0.980 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×0.980 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 3.95% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .366 → .277; ISO .177 → .122; BABIP .367 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).