R.J. Sales — OGILVIE

R.J. Sales P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%19.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP66

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.25	—
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	1.0%	2.85	2.42	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	WSH	12	12	66	280	55	24	8	100%	5.5	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.42	4.42	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	WSH	12	12	68	287	59	24	8	100%	5.7	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.3
2028	25	MLB	WSH	12	12	69	290	62	24	8	100%	5.7	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.23	+0.4
2029	26	MLB	WSH	11	11	69	290	63	24	8	100%	6.3	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+0.4
2030	27	MLB	WSH	11	11	68	286	62	24	8	100%	6.2	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+0.4
2027	24	MLB	WSH	5	5	29	122	25	10	3	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	WSH	8	8	46	194	41	16	5	100%	5.8	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.23	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	WSH	9	9	54	228	49	19	6	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	WSH	10	10	58	245	53	21	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			32	32	187	789	168	67	21	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.5%	12.9%	2.7%	4.27	3.86	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	180	72	22	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.5%	12.9%	2.7%	4.27	3.86	+3.6
Career	—			22	21	95	385	74	33	5	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.25	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			46	44	200	813	156	70	10	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.25	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
R.J. Sales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	19.5%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.25	21.1%	12.7%	206	-0.17	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	94
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	89
Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	21.9%	9.2%	1.6%	.281	7.92	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.61	3.31	191	88
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	87
Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	87
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	86
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	86
Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	17.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.317	3.73	16.7%	5.6%	103	+0.15	3.58	173	85
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP-	3.41	19.2%	7.0%	1.9%	.293	5.18	14.7%	5.9%	130	+1.77	3.41	213	85
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	3.6%	.288	5.29	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.41	4.52	340	85
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	18.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.242	5.24	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+0.78	4.46	222	84
Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	84
Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP-	4.00	17.5%	8.1%	2.5%	.275	3.50	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.50	2.73	202	84
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	84
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	84
Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	17.1%	8.3%	2.0%	.266	4.26	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.48	3.78	262	84
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	83
Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.03	19.4%	8.5%	81	-0.13	3.97	194	83
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	20.3%	7.6%	3.1%	.313	3.91	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.16	3.53	357	83
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5	68	20.9%	8.5%	1.05	4.31
Jim Johnson ('18)	4	63	20.7%	8.0%	0.90	4.19
Scott Oberg ('19)	5	51	21.5%	9.3%	0.91	3.85
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Blaine Hardy ('19)	5	50	18.6%	7.7%	1.11	3.91
Robert Gsellman ('21)	5	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Adam Warren ('19)	5	67	20.8%	8.3%	1.08	3.55