R.J. Sales

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#591ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AWSH	22	21	95	2.85	2.42	26.0%	7.3%	—	K 19.2% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.28
2026	23	MIX2 levels	5	4	14	4.61	1.64	30.2%	7.5%	—	K 30.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 1.51
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.45	4.45	19.9%	8.7%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBWSH	4	4	22	4.39	4.36	20.6%	8.4%	0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBWSH	6	6	35	4.35	4.33	21.0%	8.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsZack Lee (age 23) · Cameron Foster (age 24) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%19.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.28	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.28	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	1.0%	2.85	2.42	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	14	53	16	4	0	80%	2.7	30.2%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	4.61	1.51	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	14	53	16	4	0	80%	2.7	30.2%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	4.61	1.51	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	14	53	16	4	0	80%	2.7	30.2%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	4.61	1.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	306	63	26	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.39	4.36	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	69	291	61	24	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.35	4.33	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	66	280	59	23	8	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.4%	12.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	63	266	56	23	8	100%	6.3	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.44	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	64	271	62	22	9	100%	5.8	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.30	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	58	245	55	20	8	100%	5.8	22.3%	8.2%	14.1%	3.4%	4.42	4.48	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	51	217	48	19	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	8.6%	13.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.68	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	45	188	40	17	7	100%	6.4	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.78	4.91	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	22	93	19	8	3	100%	5.5	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.39	4.36	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	35	148	31	12	4	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.8%	4.35	4.33	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	42	177	37	15	5	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.4%	12.7%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	45	190	40	16	6	100%	5.6	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.44	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	49	207	47	16	7	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.30	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	47	198	44	16	7	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.2%	14.1%	3.4%	4.42	4.48	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	43	182	40	16	7	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.6%	13.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.68	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	39	165	35	15	6	100%	6.5	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	3.8%	4.78	4.91	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	323	1362	294	115	44	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.10	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	71	27	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.45	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		27	25	108	438	90	37	5	93%	4.0	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	1.1%	3.07	3.06	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	809	166	68	9	93%	4.0	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	1.1%	3.07	3.06	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 7 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.64 (+0.66)K% 23.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.740	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.180	7.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 7 IPFIP 0.90 → 1.82 (+0.93)K% 39.1% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.770	30.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.150	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.90 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 95 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.28 (+0.88)K% 26.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.97%	—	×0.740	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.180	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.040	×1.300	1.30%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
R.J. Sales (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.35	20.9%	12.5%	208	-0.10	—	—	—
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	83
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	83
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	83
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	81
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	81
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	62	21.3%	8.4%	1.20	4.43
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*