R.J. Sales
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.9 · 2030
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.0%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 21 | 95 | 385 | 100 | 28 | 4 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 2.85 | 3.28 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 88 | 36 | 11 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 108 | 41 | 13 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.14 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 126 | 534 | 122 | 45 | 14 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 130 | 47 | 15 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 133 | 48 | 16 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 132 | 48 | 16 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 129 | 47 | 16 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 124 | 47 | 16 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 118 | 46 | 16 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 112 | 45 | 15 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 106 | 43 | 15 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 99 | 42 | 15 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 91 | 41 | 14 | 21.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 84 | 39 | 14 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 21 | 95 | 385 | 74 | 33 | 5 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 2.85 | 3.28 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 44 | 200 | 813 | 156 | 70 | 11 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 2.85 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| R.J. Sales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.10 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 373 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 93 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 92 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 91 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 91 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 91 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.65 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.41 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 63 | +0.76 | 3.65 | 156 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 91 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 90 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 90 |
| Jharel Cotton R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.27 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.73 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 315 | +1.46 | 3.20 | 560 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 90 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.52 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .293 | 5.37 | 11.6% | 2.7% | 93 | +1.85 | 3.52 | 175 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 89 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 89 |
| Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .236 | 4.02 | 19.6% | 13.5% | 184 | +0.32 | 3.11 | 321 | 89 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| Ben Gross R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 89 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.6 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.4 | $14M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $13M | +$8M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $10M | $75M | +$66M | ||