R.J. Sales — OGILVIE

R.J. Sales P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%19.5%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD5050

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.28	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	1.3%	2.85	3.28	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	21	95	385	100	28	4	95%	4.3	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	1.0%	2.85	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	5	4	14	53	16	4	0	80%	2.7	—	—	—	—	4.61	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	5	4	14	53	16	4	0	80%	2.7	—	—	—	—	4.61	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	WSH	3	3	7	30	7	2	0	100%	2.3	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	1.97	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	2	1	7	23	9	2	0	50%	3.4	39.1%	8.7%	30.4%	0.0%	1.35	0.90	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.2	19.5%	8.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	19	75	20	6	1	—	—	27.1%	7.9%	19.2%	0.8%	4.56	1.21	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	87	369	76	31	10	100%	5.5	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	373	79	30	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.1%	12.9%	2.7%	4.26	4.22	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	373	80	30	10	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.20	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	87	368	78	30	10	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.23	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	357	76	30	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.32	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	81	341	71	29	10	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	320	72	26	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.37	4.36	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	71	299	66	25	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.4%	4.48	4.56	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	66	277	60	24	10	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.7%	4.66	4.79	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	37	156	32	13	4	100%	5.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	52	20	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.1%	12.9%	2.7%	4.26	4.22	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	63	24	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.20	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	67	25	9	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.23	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	75	317	67	26	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.32	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	73	308	65	26	9	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.45	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	67	24	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.37	4.36	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	62	23	10	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.4%	4.48	4.56	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	61	258	56	23	10	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.7%	4.66	4.79	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	586	2474	531	205	75	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.00	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	70	26	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.00	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		27	25	108	438	90	37	5	93%	4.0	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	1.1%	3.07	3.06	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	809	166	68	9	93%	4.0	20.5%	8.5%	12.1%	1.1%	3.07	3.06	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
R.J. Sales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	19.5%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.23	21.0%	12.8%	264	-0.18	—	—	—
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	88
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	88
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	86
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	85
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	85
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	84
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	79	21.2%	8.3%	1.15	4.35
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17