Ben Hess — OGILVIE

Ben Hess P Somerset Patriots

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 255 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%26.9%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	33.0%	10.9%	22.1%	0.7%	3.22	2.12	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	12	12	35	165	41	22	7	100%	2.9	20.1%	14.7%	5.5%	5.1%	4.84	6.05	-0.6
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	12	12	65	274	74	33	6	100%	5.4	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.4%	4.04	4.04	+0.5
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.5%	4.09	4.09	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	100	439	115	55	13	—	—	26.1%	12.6%	13.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.75	+0.8
2026 FULL	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.5%	4.09	3.71	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYY	21	21	118	499	135	55	12	100%	5.6	27.0%	11.0%	16.0%	2.4%	3.98	3.92	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	NYY	24	24	138	581	157	60	14	100%	5.7	27.0%	10.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.91	3.85	+2.5
2029	26	MLB	NYY	25	25	150	632	170	64	16	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.2%	16.8%	2.5%	3.88	3.85	+2.7
2030	27	MLB	NYY	25	25	148	623	167	63	16	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.2%	16.6%	2.5%	3.89	3.89	+2.6
2031	28	MLB	NYY	24	24	143	604	161	62	16	100%	6.0	26.7%	10.3%	16.3%	2.6%	3.94	3.98	+2.4
2032	29	MLB	NYY	23	23	137	577	153	61	16	100%	5.9	26.4%	10.6%	15.9%	2.8%	4.04	4.11	+2.1
2033	30	MLB	NYY	21	21	128	543	142	59	16	100%	6.1	26.1%	10.9%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.29	+1.7
2034	31	MLB	NYY	20	20	120	506	130	57	16	100%	6.0	25.7%	11.2%	14.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.49	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	NYY	18	18	111	468	118	54	16	100%	6.2	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	3.5%	4.58	4.71	+0.9
2027	24	MLB	NYY	9	9	52	220	59	24	5	100%	5.8	27.0%	11.0%	16.0%	2.5%	4.03	3.97	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	NYY	16	16	92	388	105	40	10	100%	5.8	27.0%	10.3%	16.6%	2.5%	3.96	3.90	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	NYY	20	20	119	502	135	51	13	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.2%	16.8%	2.6%	3.93	3.90	+2.1
2030	27	MLB	NYY	21	21	126	532	143	54	14	100%	6.0	26.8%	10.2%	16.6%	2.6%	3.94	3.94	+2.1
2031	28	MLB	NYY	21	21	128	540	144	56	15	100%	6.1	26.7%	10.3%	16.3%	2.7%	3.99	4.03	+2.0
2032	29	MLB	NYY	21	21	124	524	138	55	15	100%	5.9	26.4%	10.6%	15.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.17	+1.8
2033	30	MLB	NYY	20	20	119	502	131	55	16	100%	6.0	26.1%	10.9%	15.2%	3.1%	4.25	4.35	+1.5
2034	31	MLB	NYY	19	19	112	473	121	53	16	100%	5.9	25.7%	11.2%	14.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.56	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	NYY	17	17	104	439	111	51	16	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.6%	13.6%	3.6%	4.65	4.78	+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			164	164	976	4121	1088	439	119	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.7%	15.7%	2.9%	4.14	3.80	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	223	90	24	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.7%	15.7%	2.9%	4.14	3.80	+3.7
Career	—			34	34	139	586	142	76	12	100%	4.1	24.2%	13.0%	11.2%	2.1%	3.63	3.85	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—			49	49	200	845	205	110	18	100%	4.1	24.2%	13.0%	11.2%	2.1%	3.63	3.85	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hess (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.04	26.9%	12.1%	2.4%	—	3.87	27.0%	16.5%	406	-0.17	—	—	—
David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	24.6%	11.6%	1.9%	.341	3.71	27.5%	18.8%	209	+0.16	3.55	405	85
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.10	24.1%	14.3%	117	+0.47	3.63	209	83
Ty Madden R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	24.0%	11.2%	3.5%	.304	5.61	21.6%	11.1%	179	+1.19	4.42	420	82
Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.0%	12.1%	1.7%	.286	4.18	19.5%	10.0%	219	+0.57	3.61	428	81
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	23.2%	13.4%	2.0%	.275	4.71	23.4%	0.9%	72	+0.76	3.49	303	81
George Klassen R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.2%	11.0%	2.0%	.350	4.72	17.6%	3.5%	72	+1.02	3.57	268	81
Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	22.9%	11.8%	2.5%	.288	6.17	19.4%	1.6%	168	+2.16	4.01	412	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.2%	14.2%	148	+0.07	1.96	352	80
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	80
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	21.7%	11.1%	1.8%	.326	4.43	21.1%	10.5%	112	+0.76	3.67	213	80
Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	21.9%	9.2%	1.6%	.281	7.92	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.61	3.31	191	80
Mason Black R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	25.5%	10.9%	3.8%	.284	5.13	18.9%	7.8%	291	+0.74	3.81	527	80
Gavin Williams R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP	3.43	26.2%	9.9%	2.3%	.238	3.89	25.1%	14.1%	398	+0.46	3.43	626	80
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	79
Patrick Reilly R 2025 · 4.75 FIP	22	SP	4.75	23.2%	13.6%	3.4%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	119	79
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP	3.66	21.5%	12.3%	1.5%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	158	78
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.80	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.56	2.21	778	77
Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	23	SP-	3.04	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.24	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.20	3.04	341	77
River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.1%	12.2%	2.1%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.28	2.13	218	77
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	23	SP	3.12	24.5%	12.5%	0.9%	.214	4.35	24.6%	7.8%	11	+1.23	3.12	132	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	128	26.5%	10.8%	1.05	4.07
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	7	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89