Ben Hess

P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 255 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#276ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	103	3.22	2.12	33.0%	10.9%	—	K 25.9% · BB 12.4% · FIP 2.98
2026	23	AANYY	16	16	57	4.45	4.00	25.5%	11.8%	—	K 20.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	1	1	5	4.60	4.60	24.1%	12.9%	0.0
2028PROJ46% MLB	25	MLBNYY	7	7	43	4.58	4.52	24.5%	11.7%	0.5
2029PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBNYY	11	11	66	4.51	4.47	24.6%	11.4%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 9.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Blake Wehunt (age 23) · Cade Smith (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%24.1%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	33.0%	10.9%	22.1%	0.7%	3.22	2.12	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	1	1	5	21	5	3	1	100%	5.0	24.1%	12.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.60	4.60	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	94	396	97	46	11	100%	5.9	24.5%	11.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.42	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	96	407	100	46	11	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.37	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	92	389	95	44	11	100%	6.1	24.5%	11.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	88	369	90	42	11	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	81	343	82	40	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	310	74	37	10	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	65	276	64	34	10	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	43	182	44	21	5	100%	6.1	24.5%	11.7%	12.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.52	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	66	279	69	32	8	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	72	304	74	34	9	100%	6.0	24.5%	11.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	74	312	76	35	10	100%	6.2	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	3.2%	4.56	4.60	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	12	12	71	300	72	35	10	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.67	4.74	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	66	279	66	33	10	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.82	4.91	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	60	253	59	31	10	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	453	1912	462	221	62	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.32	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	204	98	27	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.6%	12.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		38	38	160	676	161	85	12	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	845	202	107	15	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 57 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.80 (+0.86)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.100	12.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 67 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.14 (+1.00)K% 33.9% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.94%	—	×0.770	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.91%	—	×1.150	13.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 37 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.66 (+0.68)K% 31.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.810	25.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.100	9.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.030	×1.200	0.81%

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hess (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.40	24.5%	13.1%	282	-0.20	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	85
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	84
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	83
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	83
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	83
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	82
George Klassen R 2024 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.0%	13.6%	1.7%	.299	4.01	20.6%	9.1%	221	+0.51	3.50	314	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	81
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	81
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	81
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	81
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	85	24.2%	11.7%	1.15	4.54
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11