Ben Hess — OGILVIE

Ben Hess P Somerset Patriots

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 255 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%27.0%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4045

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$9M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.3M
Totals		$28M		$43M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	25.9%	12.4%	13.4%	0.9%	3.22	2.98	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	421	139	46	3	100%	4.7	33.0%	10.9%	22.1%	0.7%	3.22	2.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	20.6%	12.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.45	4.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	NYY	16	16	57	255	65	30	7	100%	3.5	25.5%	11.8%	13.7%	2.7%	4.45	3.94	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYY	1	1	8	34	9	4	1	100%	8.2	27.0%	12.3%	14.7%	2.4%	4.05	4.05	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	65	289	74	34	8	—	—	25.7%	11.8%	13.8%	2.7%	4.40	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	121	512	139	57	12	100%	5.5	27.1%	11.1%	16.0%	2.4%	3.98	3.91	+1.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	141	594	161	62	14	100%	5.9	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.84	+1.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	25	25	153	645	175	66	16	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	2.5%	3.87	3.84	+1.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	25	25	150	635	171	65	16	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.2%	16.7%	2.5%	3.88	3.88	+1.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	146	616	165	64	16	100%	6.1	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.6%	3.93	3.97	+1.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	139	589	156	62	16	100%	6.1	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	2.8%	4.03	4.10	+1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	131	553	145	60	16	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.28	+1.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	122	516	133	58	17	100%	6.1	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.48	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	113	477	121	55	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.70	+0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	104	438	109	53	16	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.1%	12.8%	3.7%	4.80	4.95	-0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	94	399	97	50	16	100%	5.9	24.3%	12.6%	11.8%	4.0%	5.06	5.23	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	61	25	6	100%	5.9	27.1%	11.1%	16.0%	2.6%	4.07	4.00	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	94	397	108	41	10	100%	5.9	27.1%	10.4%	16.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.93	+1.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	122	515	139	52	14	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	2.6%	3.96	3.93	+1.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	129	545	147	56	15	100%	5.9	26.9%	10.2%	16.7%	2.7%	3.97	3.97	+1.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	22	22	130	549	147	57	15	100%	5.9	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.8%	4.03	4.07	+1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	127	536	142	57	16	100%	6.0	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	3.0%	4.13	4.20	+1.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	20	20	121	511	134	56	16	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	19	19	114	481	124	54	16	100%	6.0	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	3.4%	4.48	4.60	+0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	106	448	114	52	16	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.6%	13.7%	3.7%	4.70	4.83	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	104	50	17	100%	6.2	24.9%	12.1%	12.8%	4.0%	4.94	5.09	-0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	85	359	87	45	15	100%	6.1	24.3%	12.6%	11.8%	4.3%	5.21	5.38	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	198	1179	4978	1306	544	157	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.00	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	222	92	27	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.9%	15.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.00	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		38	38	160	676	161	85	12	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	845	202	107	15	100%	4.2	23.9%	12.6%	11.3%	1.8%	3.66	3.67	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Hess (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	27.0%	12.3%	2.4%	—	3.86	27.1%	16.6%	415	-0.19	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	84
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	82
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	82
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	82
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	81
Ryan Bergert R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	23.0%	12.1%	1.4%	.286	4.13	19.2%	10.0%	219	+0.69	3.44	428	81
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	81
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	80
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	80
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	79
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	79
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	79
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	79
Shawn Dubin R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	23	SP-	3.02	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.15	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.13	3.02	341	78
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	78
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	78
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	77
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	125	26.4%	11.0%	1.11	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67