Wilber Dotel

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 238 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+PIT	25	25	106	5.33	5.20	22.8%	11.6%	—	K 17.6% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.12
2025	22	AAPIT	27	27	126	4.15	3.49	24.5%	8.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.48
2026	23	MIX3 levels	36	7	81	4.32	3.26	22.3%	8.8%	1.3	K 20.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.49
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	7	7	38	4.22	4.14	23.0%	9.3%	0.6
2028PROJ84% MLB	25	MLBPIT	8	8	47	4.15	4.09	23.3%	9.0%	0.7
2029PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBPIT	8	8	46	4.12	4.08	23.4%	8.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs61

K%52

Form4.50 ERA (proj 4.22) · K 20.0% (proj 23.0%) · BB 7.5% (proj 9.3%) · last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 2.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsMason Miller (age 24) · Casey Legumina (age 24) · Tylor Megill (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.22

FIP4.14

K%23.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	17.3%	16.8%	0.5%	2.2%	3.34	4.98	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	25.4%	13.4%	11.9%	1.5%	3.34	3.50	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	1.0%	3.49	4.03	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	23.2%	15.2%	7.9%	0.6%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	12.4%	15.0%	-2.6%	1.2%	3.09	4.59	—
2023	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.1%	0.9%	3.09	3.80	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	4.5%	5.33	5.20	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	2.6%	4.15	3.49	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.9%	4.32	3.49	+1.0
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.3%	11.9%	1.9%	4.32	3.49	+1.0
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	7	81	354	79	31	6	19%	2.3	22.3%	8.8%	13.6%	1.7%	4.32	3.26	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	2	42	182	41	15	3	9%	1.9	22.5%	8.2%	14.3%	1.6%	4.46	3.15	+0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	7	7	38	160	37	15	4	100%	5.4	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.14	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	56	236	55	21	6	100%	5.6	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.6%	4.15	4.09	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	9	9	51	216	51	19	6	100%	5.7	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	48	201	47	18	5	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.13	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	7	7	43	181	42	16	5	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.0%	14.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.22	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	36	150	34	14	4	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.38	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	5	5	27	115	25	11	4	100%	5.5	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.47	4.58	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	47	198	46	18	5	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.0%	14.3%	2.6%	4.15	4.09	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	46	194	45	17	5	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	43	182	42	16	5	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.7%	4.13	4.13	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	40	169	39	15	5	100%	5.7	23.1%	9.0%	14.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.22	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	33	139	31	13	4	100%	5.5	22.6%	9.2%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.38	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	26	110	24	10	3	100%	6.5	21.9%	9.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.47	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	41	277	1174	269	105	31	67%	4.5	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.24	3.73	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	30	200	847	194	76	22	67%	4.5	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.24	3.73	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		131	88	460	1996	353	236	58	67%	3.5	17.7%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	4.16	4.70	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	38	200	867	153	103	25	67%	3.5	17.7%	11.8%	5.8%	2.9%	4.16	4.70	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 36 IPFIP 3.57 → 3.80 (+0.23)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.50%	—	×0.860	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×0.900	8.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 126 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.48 (+0.99)K% 24.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.810	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×1.100	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.891	×1.200	3.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 106 IPFIP 5.13 → 6.12 (+0.99)K% 22.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.84%	—	×0.770	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.64%	—	×1.150	13.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.53%	÷1.106	×1.250	5.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 5.13 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 79 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.59 (+0.82)K% 16.8% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.81%	—	×0.740	12.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.75%	—	×1.180	15.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷0.971	×1.300	1.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 34 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.03 (+1.20)K% 24.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.680	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.250	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷0.977	×1.400	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ABradenton Marauders · 4 IPFIP 6.96 → 8.13 (+1.18)K% 13.0% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.740	9.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	39.13%	—	×1.180	46.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 6.96 → 8.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Pirates Gold · 30 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.98 (+1.50)K% 25.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.680	17.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.43%	—	×1.250	16.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.946	×1.400	2.21%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilber Dotel (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.10	23.3%	14.4%	154	-0.04	—	—	—
Mason Miller R 2023 · 3.12 FIP	24	SP-	3.12	27.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.265	1.54	44.6%	35.5%	197	-1.58	0.85	230	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	76
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	71
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.58	24.3%	11.9%	195	+0.39	3.19	290	71
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	71
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	70
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	70
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	70
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	70
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	70
Zack Kelly R 2019 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP-	3.55	20.3%	9.6%	1.7%	.336	2.74	29.0%	18.8%	109	-0.81	2.45	393	69
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	69
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	69
Max Scherzer R 2008 · 2.98 FIP	24	SW	2.98	27.8%	8.4%	2.1%	.295	3.84	22.4%	14.6%	561	+0.86	2.13	3,078	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	69
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	69
Trey Gibson R 2024 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	22.7%	11.7%	1.0%	.310	3.93	22.4%	12.9%	252	+0.71	3.22	344	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	23.0%	9.0%	1.01	4.23
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*