Wilber Dotel
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 238 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2029
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 115 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%20.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP115
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.1
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p410.322
FB+0.5 (49%)
CT (20%)
CH (11%)
SL-1.6 (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | 11 | 5 | 30 | 134 | 34 | 18 | 2 | 45% | 2.7 | 17.3% | 16.8% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 3.34 | 5.06 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates Gold | 11 | 5 | 30 | 134 | 34 | 18 | 2 | 45% | 2.7 | 25.4% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 3.34 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 39 | 164 | 38 | 25 | 1 | 64% | 2.8 | 16.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 4.04 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 39 | 164 | 38 | 25 | 1 | 64% | 2.8 | 23.2% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 0.6% | 3.49 | 3.41 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 15 | 79 | 345 | 58 | 44 | 3 | 83% | 4.4 | 12.4% | 15.0% | -2.6% | 1.2% | 3.09 | 4.61 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 15 | 79 | 345 | 58 | 44 | 3 | 83% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 25 | 106 | 464 | 106 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.33 | 5.87 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 25 | 106 | 464 | 106 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 27 | 126 | 535 | 131 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 4.15 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 27 | 126 | 535 | 131 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 3.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 18 | 5 | 47 | 207 | 50 | 21 | 5 | 28% | 2.6 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 5.21 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 110 | 0 | 115 | 488 | 99 | 50 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PIT | 110 | 0 | 115 | 486 | 99 | 50 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 162 | 695 | 149 | 71 | 22 | — | — | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 134 | 565 | 149 | 71 | 22 | — | — | 26.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 5.75 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 149 | 630 | 137 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 151 | 638 | 141 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 142 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 142 | 600 | 130 | 59 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 144 | 608 | 134 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 136 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 74 | 563 | 2378 | 517 | 231 | 78 | 38% | 2.9 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.29 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 26 | 200 | 845 | 184 | 82 | 28 | 38% | 2.9 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 86 | 426 | 1849 | 326 | 229 | 58 | 76% | 3.8 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.89 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 40 | 200 | 869 | 153 | 107 | 27 | 76% | 3.8 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilber Dotel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.62 | 22.0% | 12.5% | 452 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 77 |
| Hayden Birdsong R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.46 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 326 | 75 |
| Rafael Montero R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 177 | -0.87 | 2.38 | 663 | 75 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.97 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.14 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 169 | -0.83 | 4.07 | 408 | 74 |
| Chase Silseth R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 24.4% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .264 | 4.53 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 103 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 313 | 74 |
| Brandon Sproat R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.61 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% | .264 | 3.94 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 224 | -0.67 | 3.47 | 340 | 74 |
| Jorge Alcala R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.26 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.09 | 22.6% | 15.1% | 186 | -0.17 | 2.53 | 612 | 74 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .257 | 4.28 | 11.0% | 3.6% | 131 | -0.16 | 3.95 | 229 | 73 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 73 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 73 |
| Ryan Gusto R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.47 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 360 | -1.19 | 3.68 | 521 | 73 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.81 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 324 | -0.69 | 3.46 | 572 | 72 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 72 |
| Logan Evans R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.52 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.20 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 125 | -0.32 | 4.20 | 232 | 72 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .296 | 4.61 | 19.0% | 8.3% | 88 | +0.35 | 4.15 | 321 | 72 |
| Spencer Arrighetti R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .277 | 4.13 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 277 | +0.09 | 3.84 | 508 | 71 |
| Tanner Houck R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.52 | 27.3% | 19.2% | 167 | -1.30 | 2.23 | 733 | 71 |
| Carson Spiers R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.84 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.70 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 355 | +0.86 | 3.69 | 497 | 71 |
| Hunter Wood R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .307 | 3.74 | 25.5% | 18.2% | 140 | -0.66 | 2.90 | 483 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 146 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 1.29 | 4.75 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |