Wilber Dotel — OGILVIE

Wilber Dotel P Indianapolis Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 238 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%20.1%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†4555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB+0.5 (47%)

CT (22%)

CH (8%)

SL-1.6 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	17.3%	16.8%	0.5%	2.2%	3.34	4.98	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	45%	2.7	25.4%	13.4%	11.9%	1.5%	3.34	3.50	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	16.9%	14.2%	2.7%	1.0%	3.49	4.03	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	64%	2.8	23.2%	15.2%	7.9%	0.6%	3.49	3.41	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	12.4%	15.0%	-2.6%	1.2%	3.09	4.59	—
2023	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	12.4%	15.0%	-2.6%	1.2%	3.09	4.59	—
2023	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	83%	4.4	16.8%	12.8%	4.1%	0.9%	3.09	3.80	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	5.1%	5.33	6.12	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	100%	4.3	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	4.5%	5.33	5.20	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.5%	4.15	4.48	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	100%	4.7	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	2.6%	4.15	3.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	1	35	148	35	13	2	6%	1.9	23.6%	8.8%	14.9%	1.4%	4.93	2.96	+0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	6	74	320	73	29	5	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	1.8%	4.52	3.45	+1.0
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	6	74	320	73	29	5	19%	2.3	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	1.8%	4.52	3.45	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	PIT	2	0	3	11	5	1	0	0%	1.5	45.5%	9.1%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.41	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	PIT	12	5	36	161	33	15	3	42%	3.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	1.9%	4.50	3.57	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	PIT	18	1	35	148	35	13	2	6%	1.9	23.6%	8.8%	14.9%	1.4%	4.93	2.96	+0.7
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	PIT	18	1	35	148	35	13	2	6%	1.9	23.6%	8.8%	14.9%	1.4%	4.93	2.96	+0.7
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	PIT	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	80	345	78	32	6	—	—	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	1.7%	4.52	3.53	+1.2
FULL	23	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	41	171	78	32	6	—	—	45.6%	18.4%	27.2%	3.4%	8.87	3.45	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	149	630	138	60	18	100%	5.7	21.9%	9.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	151	638	142	59	18	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	151	638	144	58	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.32	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	149	629	141	58	19	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	610	136	57	19	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	138	582	129	55	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	130	547	119	54	19	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.8%	11.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	142	600	131	57	17	100%	5.7	21.9%	9.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	144	608	136	56	18	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	144	608	137	55	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.32	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	141	595	134	54	18	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	137	578	129	54	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.44	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	131	553	122	53	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	123	519	113	51	18	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.8%	11.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	163	1002	4234	942	396	126	88%	5.4	22.2%	9.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.46	4.04	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	845	188	79	25	88%	5.4	22.2%	9.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.46	4.04	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		127	87	453	1962	346	235	57	69%	3.6	17.6%	12.0%	5.7%	2.9%	4.20	4.72	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	867	153	104	25	69%	3.6	17.6%	12.0%	5.7%	2.9%	4.20	4.72	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilber Dotel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	20.0%	10.8%	3.4%	—	4.37	22.2%	12.9%	452	-0.64	—	—	—
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	74
Tanner Houck R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	23	SP-	3.81	18.6%	10.5%	1.7%	.311	2.55	27.3%	19.2%	167	-1.26	2.27	733	74
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	72
Jorge Alcala R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.4%	12.9%	2.1%	.291	4.09	22.6%	15.1%	186	-0.14	2.53	612	71
Jacob Turner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	15.9%	7.8%	2.8%	.338	4.63	15.0%	5.3%	209	+0.34	4.29	340	71
Hunter Wood R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	18.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.307	3.71	25.5%	18.2%	140	-0.74	2.89	483	70
Ryan Gusto R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	23	SP-	5.38	18.5%	10.5%	4.6%	.297	4.25	19.7%	11.0%	360	-1.13	3.77	573	70
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	69
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	68
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	68
AJ Blubaugh R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	20.6%	12.2%	2.6%	.307	4.29	21.3%	11.4%	346	-0.06	1.59	459	68
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	68
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	68
Spencer Arrighetti R 2023 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP-	3.92	22.2%	11.1%	2.4%	.277	4.38	24.2%	12.8%	307	+0.46	3.92	538	68
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	67
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	67
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	67
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	67
Peter Solomon R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP-	4.71	22.6%	10.8%	3.9%	.283	5.55	17.2%	6.1%	286	+0.84	2.86	516	67
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	145	21.9%	9.6%	1.19	4.52
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68