Wilber Dotel — OGILVIE

Wilber Dotel P Indianapolis Indians

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 238 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2030

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

xFIP7.84

SIERA7.85

K%20.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.7%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2030

K†5050

FB+0.5 (64%)

CT (12%)

CH (16%)

SL-1.6 (8%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	11	5	30	134	34	18	2	17.3%	16.8%	2.4%	3.34	5.07	-0.0
2022	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	14	9	39	164	38	25	1	16.9%	14.2%	1.0%	3.49	4.05	+0.4
2023	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	18	15	79	345	58	44	3	12.4%	15.0%	1.2%	3.09	4.59	+0.5
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	25	106	464	106	54	21	17.6%	13.4%	5.0%	5.33	6.07	-0.9
2025	22	AA	Altoona Curve	27	27	126	535	131	43	14	19.8%	8.8%	3.4%	4.15	4.44	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	3	3	14	68	13	7	2	16.8%	10.8%	3.2%	6.28	4.82	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	48	—	48	203	41	20	7	20.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.82	4.82	+0.1
2026 Total	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	62	271	54	27	9	20.1%	9.9%	3.2%	5.16	4.82	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	PIT	25	25	139	587	125	54	19	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.69	4.65	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	PIT	28	28	153	645	140	57	21	21.7%	8.8%	3.2%	4.59	4.55	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	PIT	29	29	160	674	148	59	22	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.51	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	PIT	30	30	162	686	150	60	22	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	4.52	4.51	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	PIT	29	29	162	684	150	60	22	21.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.54	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	PIT	29	29	158	669	145	59	22	21.7%	8.9%	3.3%	4.56	4.58	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	PIT	28	28	154	649	140	58	22	21.5%	9.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.65	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	PIT	27	27	148	626	133	57	22	21.3%	9.1%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	PIT	26	26	142	601	126	56	21	21.0%	9.2%	3.5%	4.76	4.81	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	PIT	25	25	136	574	119	54	21	20.7%	9.4%	3.6%	4.85	4.91	+0.6
2037	34	MLB	PIT	23	23	129	546	111	52	20	20.4%	9.6%	3.7%	4.95	5.01	+0.4
2038	35	MLB	PIT	22	22	122	514	103	51	20	20.0%	9.8%	3.8%	5.06	5.14	+0.2
2039	36	MLB	PIT	21	21	114	481	94	49	19	19.5%	10.1%	3.9%	5.19	5.27	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			98	84	393	1710	293	214	53	17.1%	12.5%	3.1%	4.21	4.94	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			50	43	200	869	149	109	27	17.1%	12.5%	3.1%	4.21	4.94	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilber Dotel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	20.5%	9.8%	3.3%	—	4.57	21.6%	12.7%	451	-0.25	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	86
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	85
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	85
Andrew Bellatti R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	278	84
Justin Sterner R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	24	SU	4.81	23.9%	9.4%	4.6%	.279	4.63	26.6%	17.2%	142	-0.18	3.97	252	84
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	84
Peter Strzelecki R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	21.8%	10.7%	2.2%	.365	3.53	23.2%	15.7%	106	-0.29	2.87	328	84
Nick Robertson R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	20.9%	7.7%	2.6%	.314	4.07	24.1%	14.4%	170	+0.31	3.43	281	83
Isaiah Campbell R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	19.7%	8.8%	3.0%	.220	3.50	25.4%	17.1%	115	-0.69	3.29	192	83
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	83
Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	19.6%	8.7%	3.1%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.47	2.40	272	82
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	82
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	82
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	82
Todd Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	18.4%	10.3%	4.2%	.279	4.82	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.33	4.45	175	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	82
Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	82
Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	24	SU	4.37	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.49	4.37	412	81
Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	23.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.98	3.54	156	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+1.4	$13M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.3	$12M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$15M		$73M	+$58M