Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 12 | 56 | 248 | 84 | 32 | 2 | 57% | 2.7 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | 3.72 | 3.20 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 12 | 56 | 248 | 84 | 32 | 2 | 57% | 2.7 | 33.9% | 12.9% | 21.0% | 0.8% | 3.72 | 2.27 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 45 | 7 | 64 | 287 | 73 | 45 | 1 | 16% | 1.4 | 22.4% | 16.5% | 5.9% | 0.5% | 4.08 | 3.55 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 45 | 7 | 64 | 287 | 73 | 45 | 1 | 16% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 9.8% | 0.3% | 4.08 | 3.13 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 70 | 312 | 85 | 39 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.09 | 3.47 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 70 | 312 | 85 | 39 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.2% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 3.27 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 68 | 282 | 83 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 3.8% | 3.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 68 | 282 | 83 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 12.8% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 72 | 0 | 68 | 332 | 71 | 54 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.8% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 6.85 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 51 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 113 | 521 | 122 | 79 | 8 | — | — | 23.4% | 15.2% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 5.83 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 25 | 104 | 28 | 14 | 3 | — | — | 27.1% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 60 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 70 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 64 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 57 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 0 | 182 | 771 | 196 | 99 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 215 | 109 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 241 | 19 | 326 | 1461 | 348 | 217 | 23 | 8% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 4.50 | 3.83 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 12 | 200 | 896 | 214 | 133 | 14 | 8% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 4.50 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yosver Zulueta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 27.1% | 13.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.76 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 179 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 82 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 77 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 76 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 76 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 76 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 75 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 75 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 74 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 74 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | .353 | 2.98 | 35.5% | 27.4% | 61 | -0.46 | 1.52 | 452 | 74 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.68 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 39 | -0.48 | 3.68 | 323 | 74 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 73 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 73 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.97 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.04 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.07 | 3.97 | 281 | 73 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 25.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .272 | 2.45 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 37 | -1.13 | 2.45 | 138 | 73 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 73 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.01 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.78 | 1.11 | 160 | 73 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.91 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.37 | 2.90 | 484 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 25.6% | 13.1% | 1.21 | 4.56 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |