Zack Kelly — OGILVIE

Zack Kelly P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.02

FIP4.16

K%22.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

SL+1.4 (22%)

CT+0.7 (44%)

FB (31%)

SI (17%)

CH (4%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	0	29	120	23	6	1	0%	2.2	13.0%	6.2%	6.8%	1.2%	3.77	3.43	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	0	29	120	23	6	1	0%	2.2	19.2%	5.0%	14.2%	0.8%	3.77	2.58	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	43	178	41	16	3	0%	2.4	15.5%	11.9%	3.6%	3.6%	2.93	5.28	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	43	178	41	16	3	0%	2.4	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	1.7%	2.93	3.22	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	79	347	85	29	5	62%	3.8	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	1.7%	3.63	3.55	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	79	347	85	29	5	62%	3.8	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	1.4%	3.63	2.87	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	45	188	69	18	2	0%	1.3	30.8%	10.4%	20.4%	1.2%	2.18	2.45	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	45	188	69	18	2	0%	1.3	36.7%	9.6%	27.1%	1.1%	2.18	1.82	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	268	83	26	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	10.1%	17.6%	1.6%	2.98	2.94	+1.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	268	83	26	4	0%	1.1	31.0%	9.7%	21.3%	1.5%	2.98	2.53	+1.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	15	3	15	74	13	14	3	20%	1.0	17.6%	18.9%	-1.4%	4.1%	7.04	6.24	-0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	15	3	15	74	13	14	3	20%	1.0	17.6%	18.9%	-1.4%	4.1%	7.04	6.24	-0.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	5 levels	15	3	15	74	13	14	3	20%	1.0	17.6%	18.9%	-1.4%	4.1%	7.04	6.69	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.3%	10.0%	15.4%	4.3%	3.25	4.56	-0.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.3%	10.0%	15.4%	4.3%	3.25	4.56	-0.0
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.8%	11.1%	14.6%	3.5%	3.25	4.22	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	2.3%	5.09	3.88	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	2.3%	5.09	3.88	+0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	2.1%	5.09	3.68	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			115	3	131	566	127	54	16	3%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.98	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	29	0	34	149	28	16	3	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	2.2%	4.54	4.12	+0.2
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	29	0	34	149	28	16	3	0%	1.2	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	2.2%	4.54	4.12	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	BOS	12	0	17	78	14	9	2	0%	1.4	17.9%	11.5%	6.4%	2.6%	5.71	4.45	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	BOS	17	0	16	71	14	7	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.9%	1.4%	3.31	3.46	+0.2
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	BOS	17	0	16	71	14	7	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.9%	1.4%	3.31	3.46	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.02	4.16	—
ROS	31	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.02	4.16	—
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	34	149	28	16	3	—	—	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	2.0%	4.54	4.12	+0.2
FULL	31	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	16	69	28	16	3	—	—	40.6%	23.2%	17.4%	4.4%	9.37	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	54	0	56	238	53	25	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.6%	11.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.62	-0.0
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	52	218	47	24	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.4%	4.72	4.90	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	50	24	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.6%	11.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.62	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	47	0	49	207	45	23	7	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.4%	4.72	4.90	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	3	234	999	222	101	30	1%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.14	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	3	200	854	190	86	26	1%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		298	21	442	1892	419	196	45	7%	1.5	22.1%	10.4%	11.8%	2.4%	3.67	3.86	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	10	200	857	190	89	21	7%	1.5	22.1%	10.4%	11.8%	2.4%	3.67	3.86	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	24.1%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.75	22.0%	11.3%	108	+0.34	—	—	—
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	79
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	77
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	76
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	76
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	75
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	73
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	73
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	73
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	73
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	73
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	72
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	72
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	72
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	72
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	22.7%	10.6%	1.22	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58