Zack Kelly

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	58	3	69	3.25	4.22	25.8%	11.1%	0.3	K 25.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.56
2025	30	MIX3 levels	51	2	64	5.09	3.68	23.8%	11.0%	0.7	K 22.2% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.85
2026	31	MIX2 levels	29	0	34	4.54	4.02	18.8%	10.7%	0.2	K 17.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	32	MLBBOS	31	0	33	4.32	4.46	22.4%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBBOS	30	0	31	4.57	4.74	21.5%	10.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBBOS	16	0	17	4.85	5.04	20.6%	11.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

K%33

xwOBA vs10

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Jeff Fulchino (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.32

FIP4.46

K%22.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	0	29	120	23	6	1	0%	2.2	13.0%	6.2%	6.8%	1.2%	3.77	3.43	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	0	29	120	23	6	1	0%	2.2	19.2%	5.0%	14.2%	0.8%	3.77	2.58	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	43	178	41	16	3	0%	2.4	15.5%	11.9%	3.6%	3.6%	2.93	5.28	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	43	178	41	16	3	0%	2.4	23.0%	9.0%	14.0%	1.7%	2.93	3.22	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	79	347	85	29	5	62%	3.8	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	1.7%	3.63	3.55	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	79	347	85	29	5	62%	3.8	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	1.4%	3.63	2.87	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	45	188	69	18	2	0%	1.3	30.8%	10.4%	20.4%	1.2%	2.18	2.45	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	45	188	69	18	2	0%	1.3	36.7%	9.6%	27.1%	1.1%	2.18	1.82	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	268	83	26	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	10.1%	17.6%	1.6%	2.98	2.94	+1.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	268	83	26	4	0%	1.1	31.0%	9.7%	21.3%	1.5%	2.98	2.53	+1.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	5 levels	15	3	15	74	13	14	3	20%	1.0	17.6%	18.9%	-1.4%	4.1%	7.04	6.24	-0.3
2023	28	MIX RAW	5 levels	15	3	15	74	13	14	3	20%	1.0	17.6%	18.9%	-1.4%	4.1%	7.04	6.69	-0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.3%	10.0%	15.4%	4.3%	3.25	4.56	-0.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.3%	10.0%	15.4%	4.3%	3.25	4.56	-0.0
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	3	69	287	74	32	10	5%	1.2	25.8%	11.1%	14.6%	3.5%	3.25	4.22	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.3%	5.09	3.85	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	2.3%	5.09	3.85	+0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	2	64	281	67	31	6	4%	1.2	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	2.1%	5.09	3.68	+0.7
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	34	149	28	16	3	0%	1.2	17.5%	10.1%	7.3%	2.2%	4.54	4.10	+0.2
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	34	149	28	16	3	0%	1.2	17.5%	10.1%	7.3%	2.2%	4.54	4.10	+0.2
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	34	149	28	16	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	2.0%	4.54	4.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			115	3	131	566	127	54	16	3%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.98	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	BOS	31	0	33	139	31	14	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.32	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	31	0	33	139	30	15	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.74	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	BOS	18	0	19	80	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.4%	4.85	5.04	-0.1
2030	35	MLB MLE	BOS	10	0	10	44	9	5	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	3.8%	5.17	5.38	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	30	0	31	131	28	14	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.7%	10.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.74	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	BOS	16	0	17	72	15	8	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.4%	4.85	5.04	-0.1
2030	35	MLB CTX	BOS	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	3.8%	5.17	5.38	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	3	189	809	178	81	24	2%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.14	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	3	200	857	189	86	25	2%	1.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		298	21	442	1892	420	196	45	7%	1.5	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	2.4%	3.67	3.86	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	10	200	857	190	89	21	7%	1.5	22.2%	10.4%	11.8%	2.4%	3.67	3.86	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 17 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.66 (+0.21)K% 17.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.95%	—	×0.860	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 26 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.69 (+0.24)K% 24.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.59%	—	×0.860	21.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.39%	—	×0.900	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.75%

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 13 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.03 (+0.11)K% 28.3% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.860	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×0.900	15.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 50 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.56 (+0.51)K% 34.4% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.45%	—	×0.880	30.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.050	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.939	×1.100	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 27 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.93 (+0.88)K% 35.4% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.40%	—	×0.810	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.50%	—	×1.100	12.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷0.900	×1.200	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 19 IPFIP 1.41 → 1.72 (+0.31)K% 38.7% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.67%	—	×0.880	34.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.318	×1.100	1.11%

Result: FIP 1.41 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMobile BayBears · 75 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.55 (+0.63)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.08%	—	×0.810	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.76%	—	×1.100	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.050	×1.200	1.73%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ABurlington Bees · 28 IPFIP 3.99 → 5.28 (+1.29)K% 21.0% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.01%	—	×0.740	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.180	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.907	×1.300	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 3.99 → 5.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.4%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.94	21.0%	9.9%	62	+0.48	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	74
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	72
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	72
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	71
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	71
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	69
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	68
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	68
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	307	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.80	330	68
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	67
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	67
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	67
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	39	22.0%	10.5%	1.15	4.28
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*