Zack Kelly
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.42
xFIP3.37
SIERA3.33
K%23.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p740.289
SL+1.4 (22%)
CT+0.7 (46%)
FB (29%)
SI (17%)
CH (3%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 0 | 29 | 120 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 13.0% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 3.77 | 3.43 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 18 | 0 | 43 | 178 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 15.5% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 2.93 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | 21 | 13 | 79 | 347 | 85 | 29 | 5 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 3.63 | 3.55 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 36 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 30.8% | 10.4% | 1.2% | 2.18 | 2.47 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 57 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 83 | 26 | 4 | 27.7% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 2.98 | 2.91 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 15 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 13 | 14 | 3 | — | — | — | 7.04 | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 58 | 3 | 69 | 287 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 3.25 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 51 | 2 | 64 | 281 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.32 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 37 | 151 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 276 | 21 | 416 | 1775 | 400 | 185 | 43 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.86 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 10 | 200 | 853 | 192 | 89 | 21 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 25.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.70 | 22.7% | 12.2% | 92 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 77 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 72 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.25 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .312 | 2.66 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 556 | 72 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .282 | 3.52 | 30.5% | 24.0% | 421 | -1.04 | 1.99 | 1,253 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 71 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .345 | 2.77 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.46 | 2.11 | 300 | 71 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 71 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 70 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.