Zack Kelly
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 95
ERA3.99
FIP4.16
K%22.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p3319.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.368
SL+1.4 (22%)
CT+0.7 (44%)
FB (31%)
SI (17%)
CH (4%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 0 | 29 | 120 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 13.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 3.77 | 3.43 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 0 | 29 | 120 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 14.2% | 0.8% | 3.77 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 43 | 178 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 2.4 | 15.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.93 | 5.50 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 43 | 178 | 41 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 2.4 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 2.93 | 3.22 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 13 | 79 | 347 | 85 | 29 | 5 | 62% | 3.8 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 3.63 | 3.51 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 13 | 79 | 347 | 85 | 29 | 5 | 62% | 3.8 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 1.4% | 3.63 | 2.87 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.8% | 10.4% | 20.4% | 1.2% | 2.18 | 2.45 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 69 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.7% | 9.6% | 27.1% | 1.1% | 2.18 | 1.82 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 83 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 2.98 | 2.96 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 83 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.0% | 9.7% | 21.3% | 1.5% | 2.98 | 2.53 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 15 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 20% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 18.9% | -1.4% | 4.1% | 7.04 | 6.24 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 5 levels | 15 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 20% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 18.9% | -1.4% | 4.1% | 7.04 | 6.69 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 3 | 69 | 287 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 5% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 3.25 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 3 | 69 | 287 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 5% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 3.25 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 64 | 281 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 2 | 64 | 281 | 67 | 31 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 5.09 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 29 | 0 | 34 | 149 | 28 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 4.54 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 253 | 51 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 20.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 41 | 173 | 51 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 29.8% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 6.14 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 54 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 3 | 258 | 1103 | 247 | 114 | 33 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.15 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 2 | 200 | 853 | 191 | 88 | 26 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 298 | 21 | 442 | 1892 | 421 | 201 | 45 | 7% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.67 | 3.88 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 10 | 200 | 857 | 191 | 91 | 21 | 7% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.67 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 108 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 74 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | 2.47 | 22.0% | 15.7% | 31 | -1.43 | 2.37 | 363 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 71 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 71 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 71 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 71 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 50 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |