Edgardo Ibarra
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.9%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | 16 | 12 | 41 | 187 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 75% | 2.6 | 17.5% | 17.4% | 0.1% | 7.4% | 6.31 | 7.88 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | 16 | 12 | 41 | 187 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 75% | 2.6 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 6.31 | 5.18 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 41 | 170 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 31% | 3.2 | 16.2% | 16.6% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 5.39 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 4 | 41 | 170 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 31% | 3.2 | 24.1% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 3.90 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 17 | 14 | 63 | 282 | 55 | 48 | 4 | 82% | 3.7 | 14.4% | 20.1% | -5.7% | 1.3% | 5.00 | 5.13 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 17 | 14 | 63 | 282 | 55 | 48 | 4 | 82% | 3.7 | 19.5% | 17.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 5.00 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 45 | 191 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | DET | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | DET | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 28 | 163 | 689 | 165 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 77 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 30 | 145 | 639 | 101 | 117 | 22 | 65% | 3.2 | 15.8% | 18.4% | -2.6% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 6.00 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 41 | 200 | 879 | 139 | 161 | 31 | 65% | 3.2 | 15.8% | 18.4% | -2.6% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 6.00 | -1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edgardo Ibarra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.8% | 14.6% | 137 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 85 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 84 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 81 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 80 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 80 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 80 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 80 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 79 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 79 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 78 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 78 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 77 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 77 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 76 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 74 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 74 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 74 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 45 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 1.15 | 4.30 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |