Rece Hinds
RF Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAACIN | 422 | .208/.283/.376 | 14 | 20 | 38 | — | .168/.224/.278 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLBCIN | 51 | .261/.333/.717 | 5 | 2 | 174 | 0.1 | |
| 2025 | 24 | AAACIN | 436 | .302/.363/.563 | 24 | 21 | 101 | — | .247/.298/.451 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBCIN | 44 | .116/.136/.279 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAABAL | 326 | .263/.359/.488 | 15 | 14 | 81 | — | .212/.285/.375 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBBAL | 71 | .143/.217/.222 | 0 | 0 | 20 | -0.9 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBBAL | 70 | .213/.274/.413 | 3 | 4 | 86 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ49% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 143 | .214/.276/.411 | 6 | 8 | 86 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ52% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 155 | .214/.276/.406 | 7 | 7 | 85 | -0.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 185 | 167 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 251 | 321 | 515 | 836 | 263 | 302 | 28 | 7 | 362 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 41 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 294 | 400 | 676 | 1.076 | 382 | 400 | 32 | 10 | 444 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 29 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 310 | 310 | 655 | 966 | 345 | 467 | 41 | 0 | 413 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 274 | 247 | 58 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 107 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 235 | 310 | 425 | 735 | 190 | 369 | 39 | 8 | 327 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 19 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 62 | 211 | 62 | 273 | 100 | 32 | 11 | 160 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 90 | 84 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 226 | 278 | 417 | 694 | 190 | 348 | 39 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 461 | 412 | 111 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 34 | 151 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 269 | 336 | 536 | 872 | 267 | 358 | 33 | 7 | 372 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 51 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 261 | 333 | 717 | 1.051 | 457 | 280 | 31 | 8 | 441 | 174 | +4 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 422 | 380 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 160 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 208 | 283 | 376 | 660 | 168 | 312 | 38 | 9 | 294 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 44 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 136 | 279 | 415 | 163 | 150 | 48 | 2 | 181 | 4 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 436 | 391 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 24 | 33 | 113 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 302 | 363 | 563 | 925 | 261 | 362 | 26 | 8 | 397 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 71 | 63 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 222 | 440 | 79 | 273 | 45 | 7 | 201 | 20 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 326 | 281 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 85 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 263 | 359 | 488 | 847 | 224 | 321 | 26 | 11 | 371 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 166 | 152 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 232 | 388 | 620 | 217 | 244 | 42 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -14 | +4 | -1.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 185 | 171 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 68 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 250 | 398 | 648 | 205 | 256 | 37 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 41 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 250 | 361 | 611 | 194 | 295 | 46 | 5 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 29 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 207 | 414 | 621 | 207 | 430 | 48 | 0 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 274 | 253 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 130 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 166 | 230 | 292 | 522 | 126 | 301 | 47 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 19 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 59 | 158 | 59 | 217 | 78 | 47 | 5 | 101 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 461 | 425 | 93 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 192 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 219 | 267 | 416 | 684 | 198 | 326 | 42 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 51 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 261 | 333 | 717 | 1.051 | 457 | 280 | 31 | 8 | 425 | 174 | +4 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 422 | 392 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 192 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 168 | 224 | 278 | 502 | 110 | 295 | 45 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 44 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 136 | 279 | 415 | 163 | 150 | 48 | 2 | 174 | 4 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 436 | 401 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 24 | 139 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 247 | 298 | 451 | 749 | 204 | 313 | 32 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 71 | 63 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 222 | 440 | 79 | 273 | 45 | 7 | 198 | 20 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +2 | -0.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 326 | 293 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 212 | 285 | 375 | 660 | 164 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 207 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 188 | 250 | 391 | 641 | 203 | 265 | 38 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 201 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 65 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 259 | 335 | 542 | 877 | 284 | 317 | 29 | 8 | 377 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 412 | 383 | 63 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 196 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 164 | 223 | 290 | 513 | 125 | 299 | 48 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 412 | 376 | 87 | 16 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 160 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 231 | 299 | 426 | 724 | 194 | 358 | 39 | 8 | 320 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 461 | 425 | 93 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 192 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 219 | 267 | 416 | 684 | 198 | 339 | 42 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 461 | 412 | 111 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 34 | 151 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 269 | 336 | 536 | 872 | 267 | 358 | 33 | 7 | 372 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 438 | 78 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 208 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 236 | 324 | 560 | 146 | 297 | 44 | 6 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 473 | 426 | 91 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 41 | 176 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 214 | 289 | 413 | 702 | 200 | 309 | 37 | 9 | 310 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 444 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 25 | 160 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 232 | 281 | 426 | 706 | 194 | 307 | 33 | 5 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 434 | 123 | 27 | 2 | 26 | 34 | 134 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 283 | 342 | 535 | 876 | 251 | 346 | 28 | 7 | 377 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 356 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 134 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 199 | 273 | 348 | 621 | 149 | 278 | 34 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 397 | 344 | 83 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 41 | 117 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 241 | 334 | 439 | 773 | 198 | 313 | 29 | 10 | 340 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 207 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 188 | 250 | 391 | 641 | 203 | 263 | 38 | 5 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 412 | 380 | 63 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 196 | 5 | 20 | 8 | 166 | 223 | 292 | 515 | 126 | 299 | 48 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 461 | 430 | 93 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 21 | 192 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 216 | 267 | 412 | 679 | 195 | 326 | 42 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 437 | 78 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 208 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 236 | 325 | 561 | 146 | 293 | 44 | 6 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 447 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 25 | 160 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 230 | 281 | 423 | 703 | 192 | 298 | 33 | 5 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 358 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 134 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 198 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 148 | 275 | 34 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 437 | 78 | 19 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 208 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 236 | 325 | 561 | 146 | 293 | 44 | 6 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 447 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 25 | 160 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 230 | 281 | 423 | 703 | 192 | 298 | 33 | 5 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 358 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 134 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 198 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 148 | 275 | 34 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 45% | 380 | 348 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 129 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 209 | 270 | 401 | 672 | 192 | 274 | 34 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -6 | +2 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 45% | 70 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 413 | 688 | 200 | 279 | 34 | 6 | 302 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 49% | 290 | 265 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 97 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 210 | 272 | 399 | 671 | 189 | 274 | 33 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 300 | 273 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 100 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 209 | 272 | 394 | 666 | 185 | 274 | 33 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -5 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 294 | 269 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 97 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 209 | 271 | 388 | 660 | 180 | 273 | 33 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 289 | 265 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 95 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 207 | 270 | 381 | 651 | 174 | 271 | 33 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -7 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 49% | 143 | 131 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 411 | 686 | 197 | 279 | 34 | 6 | 302 | 86 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 155 | 142 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 406 | 682 | 192 | 279 | 33 | 6 | 300 | 85 | -3 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 152 | 139 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 213 | 275 | 400 | 675 | 187 | 278 | 33 | 7 | 297 | 83 | -3 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 149 | 136 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 274 | 392 | 666 | 181 | 276 | 33 | 7 | 294 | 81 | -3 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 765 | 700 | 145 | 33 | 5 | 32 | 49 | 267 | 10 | 28 | 4 | 207 | 269 | 406 | 674 | 199 | 278 | 35 | 6 | 292 | 74 | -18 | +4 | -2 | -21 | +17 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 123 | 28 | 4 | 27 | 42 | 227 | 8 | 24 | 3 | 207 | 268 | 403 | 672 | 197 | 277 | 35 | 6 | 292 | 74 | -15 | +3 | -2 | -18 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3777 | 3467 | 699 | 148 | 24 | 134 | 227 | 1419 | 50 | 163 | 39 | 202 | 261 | 374 | 635 | 172 | 291 | 38 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -31 | +7 | -3 | -29 | +32 | -2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 120 | 25 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 244 | 9 | 28 | 7 | 201 | 261 | 372 | 633 | 171 | 290 | 38 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -14 | +3 | -1 | -12 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 326 PAwOBA .363 → .288 (−76)K% 26.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.07% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.45% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .363 → .288; ISO .224 → .165; BABIP .321 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 436 PAwOBA .391 → .318 (−73)K% 25.9% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.92% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.74% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 21.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.63% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .391 → .318; ISO .261 → .208; BABIP .362 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALouisville Bats · 422 PAwOBA .287 → .224 (−63)K% 37.9% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.91% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.53% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.45% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .287 → .224; ISO .168 → .115; BABIP .312 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 461 PAwOBA .367 → .293 (−74)K% 32.8% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.75% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.31% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 19.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 10.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.991 | ×1.027 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.81% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.12% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .367 → .293; ISO .267 → .207; BABIP .358 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 274 PAwOBA .318 → .228 (−89)K% 39.1% → 47.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.05% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 47.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.39% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 22.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.47% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .318 → .228; ISO .190 → .126; BABIP .369 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 29 PAwOBA .400 → .309 (−91)K% 41.4% → 50.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.38% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 10.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 5.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 9.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .400 → .309; ISO .345 → .259; BABIP .467 → .430. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Reds · 19 PAwOBA .157 → .101 (−56)K% 31.6% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 7.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .157 → .101; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .100 → .078. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 185 PAwOBA .354 → .270 (−84)K% 28.1% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.11% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.03% | ÷1.009 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 15.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×0.951 | ×1.015 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.969 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 7.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .354 → .270; ISO .263 → .201; BABIP .302 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .