Player 838163 — OGILVIE

Player 838163 P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age — —HP ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINST113

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%23.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	—	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	10	28	121	36	17	0	100%	2.8	20.2%	17.6%	2.7%	0.0%	4.82	3.62	—
YTD	—	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	10	28	121	36	17	0	100%	2.8	20.2%	17.6%	2.7%	0.0%	4.82	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	—	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	10	28	121	36	17	0	100%	2.8	29.8%	14.0%	15.7%	0.0%	4.82	2.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	—	5	5	28	117	28	13	3	100%	5.5	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.49	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.49	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		10	10	28	121	24	21	0	100%	2.8	20.2%	17.6%	2.7%	0.0%	4.82	3.62	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	71	200	864	175	152	0	100%	2.8	20.2%	17.6%	2.7%	0.0%	4.82	3.62	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Player 838163 (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	23.2%	11.7%	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	74
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	74
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	71
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	70
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.08	17.3%	6.7%	189	-0.24	4.53	340	70
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	69
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	69
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	69
Tristan Beck R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP	5.00	18.2%	10.9%	3.7%	.375	4.23	20.1%	13.1%	252	-0.77	3.48	495	69
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	68
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	68
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	68
Leonardo Pestana R 2023 · 5.67 FIP	25	SP	5.67	21.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.324	5.34	21.8%	8.0%	66	-0.33	3.61	155	67
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	67
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	67
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	67
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	67
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.85	23.7%	14.8%	208	+1.09	2.33	484	67
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	67