Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 11 | 8 | 35 | 176 | 53 | 20 | 1 | 73% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 7.20 | 3.61 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 11 | 8 | 35 | 176 | 53 | 20 | 1 | 73% | 3.2 | 30.1% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 0.6% | 7.20 | 2.16 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 47.1% | 5.9% | 41.2% | 5.9% | 5.79 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 47.1% | 5.9% | 41.2% | 5.9% | 5.79 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 50.0% | -50.0% | 0.0% | — | 9.43 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 50.0% | -50.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 54 | 243 | 70 | 27 | 10 | 95% | 2.9 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 5.63 | 5.53 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 54 | 243 | 70 | 27 | 10 | 95% | 2.9 | 28.8% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 4.1% | 5.63 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 32 | 127 | 43 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 2.78 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 32 | 127 | 43 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.9% | 11.0% | 22.8% | 1.6% | 2.78 | 2.54 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 33 | 1 | 43 | 199 | 49 | 34 | 10 | 3% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.49 | 6.21 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 33 | 1 | 43 | 199 | 49 | 34 | 10 | 3% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.49 | 6.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 55 | 44 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 17.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.80 | 5.80 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 52 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 17.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.73 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 48 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.76 | 5.85 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 17.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.73 | 5.78 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.76 | 5.85 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 46 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.75 | 5.44 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 145 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.75 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 27 | 169 | 762 | 170 | 107 | 27 | 29% | 1.8 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 4.91 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 32 | 200 | 900 | 201 | 126 | 31 | 29% | 1.8 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 4.91 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Leonardo Pestana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.80 | 22.1% | 17.8% | 3.5% | — | 5.81 | 21.9% | 4.8% | 109 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 75 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2024 · 6.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.73 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 106 | 75 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2025 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 73 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.42 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 3.4% | .262 | 5.33 | 16.2% | -1.4% | 15 | -0.09 | 3.62 | 183 | 73 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 72 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.90 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 200 | 72 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 15.9% | 3.1% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 189 | 72 |
| Garrett Hill R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.34 | 20.9% | 17.8% | 3.2% | .307 | 4.72 | 15.4% | -3.2% | 42 | -0.62 | 3.13 | 539 | 71 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.51 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 142 | 71 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 70 |
| Stevie Branche R 2025 · 5.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.82 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 3.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 162 | 70 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.10 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.59 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 116 | -1.51 | 2.81 | 606 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
| Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.49 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 3.1% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 116 | 70 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 70 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 70 |
| Morris Austin R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 69 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 69 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 22.0% | 17.3% | 1.40 | 5.76 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |