Douglas Veliz

C DSL Colorado

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#549ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Colorado	117	.300/.521/.450	1	2	94	—	.205/.402/.318
2027PROJMLE	18	MLB—	227	.219/.322/.308	2	5	84	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLB—	41	.223/.326/.320	0	1	88	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLB—	106	.226/.329/.331	1	3	92	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA96

wRC+95

BB%88

Chase%88

Whiff%87

Z-Con%85

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAlirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18) · Alfredo Duno (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj PA

wRC+84

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .320 / .305

PA61

HR0

K%24

BB%10

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$50M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$24M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	117	80	24	7	1	1	26	18	11	2	0	300	521	450	971	150	377	15	22	449	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	117	88	18	5	1	1	18	22	11	2	0	205	402	318	720	114	241	19	15	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	117	88	18	5	1	1	18	22	11	2	0	205	402	318	720	114	262	19	15	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	—	117	80	24	7	1	1	26	18	11	2	0	300	521	450	971	150	377	15	22	449	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	117	87	18	5	1	1	18	22	11	2	0	207	402	322	724	115	241	19	15	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	—	117	87	18	5	1	1	18	22	11	2	0	207	402	322	724	115	241	19	15	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	227	195	44	9	2	2	23	53	7	5	1	219	322	308	630	89	289	23	10	292	84	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	118	101	23	5	1	1	12	28	4	3	1	223	326	320	646	97	291	24	10	298	88	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	219	188	44	9	2	3	22	51	7	6	2	226	329	331	660	105	293	23	10	304	92	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	342	294	68	13	3	5	34	79	11	9	4	229	331	341	672	111	294	23	10	308	94	-2	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.2
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	434	375	87	17	3	7	43	99	13	11	5	232	332	349	681	117	294	23	10	311	97	-2	+0	+0	+8	+9	1.6
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	445	385	90	18	3	8	44	101	13	12	5	234	333	356	689	122	295	23	10	314	98	-1	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	445	385	91	18	3	8	44	101	13	12	5	235	334	359	693	124	296	23	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	445	385	91	18	3	8	44	101	13	12	5	236	335	362	696	126	296	23	10	316	100	+0	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.8
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	60%	445	385	90	18	3	8	44	101	13	12	5	236	335	363	697	127	296	23	10	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	62%	445	385	90	18	3	8	44	102	13	12	5	235	334	360	694	125	295	23	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.8
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	63%	445	385	89	17	3	8	44	103	13	11	5	233	331	355	687	122	294	23	10	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	65%	445	385	88	17	3	7	44	104	13	11	5	230	329	348	677	118	293	23	10	309	95	-3	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	65%	445	386	88	17	3	7	44	105	12	11	6	227	325	340	665	114	291	24	10	304	92	-4	-0	-2	+8	+10	1.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	65%	426	370	82	16	3	6	41	103	12	10	7	222	320	330	650	108	288	24	10	298	88	-6	-1	-3	+8	+9	0.7
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	65%	407	354	76	15	2	5	39	100	11	9	9	217	314	317	631	100	283	25	10	290	83	-8	-2	-4	+7	+9	0.2
2042	33	MLB MLE	—	65%	387	338	70	13	2	4	36	97	10	8	12	210	306	302	608	92	278	25	9	281	77	-11	-3	-4	+7	+8	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	41	36	8	2	0	0	4	10	1	1	0	223	326	320	646	97	291	24	10	298	88	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	106	91	20	4	1	1	11	25	3	3	1	226	329	331	660	105	293	24	10	304	92	-1	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	185	159	36	7	1	3	18	43	6	5	2	229	331	341	672	111	294	23	10	308	94	-1	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.6
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	246	213	50	10	2	4	24	56	7	6	3	232	332	349	681	117	294	23	10	311	97	-1	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	256	221	51	10	2	4	25	58	8	7	3	234	333	356	689	122	295	23	10	314	98	-0	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	254	220	51	10	2	4	25	58	7	7	3	235	334	359	693	124	296	23	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	252	218	52	10	2	5	25	57	7	7	3	236	335	362	696	126	296	23	10	316	100	+0	+0	+0	+4	+5	1.0
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	60%	269	232	55	11	2	5	27	61	8	7	3	236	335	363	697	127	296	23	10	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.1
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	62%	277	239	56	11	2	5	28	63	8	7	3	235	334	360	694	125	295	23	10	315	100	-0	+0	+0	+5	+6	1.1
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	63%	282	244	57	11	2	5	28	65	8	7	3	233	331	355	687	122	294	23	10	313	98	-1	+0	-0	+5	+6	1.0
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	65%	289	250	57	11	2	5	29	68	8	7	3	230	329	348	677	118	293	24	10	309	95	-2	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	65%	289	251	57	11	2	5	28	69	8	7	4	227	325	340	665	114	291	24	10	304	92	-3	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	65%	277	240	53	10	2	4	27	67	8	6	4	222	320	330	650	108	288	24	10	298	88	-4	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.5
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	65%	265	231	49	9	2	3	25	65	7	6	6	217	314	317	631	100	283	25	9	290	83	-5	-1	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2042	33	MLB CTX	—	65%	252	219	46	9	1	3	24	63	7	5	8	210	306	302	608	92	278	25	10	281	77	-7	-2	-3	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3540	3064	698	136	25	56	348	828	101	88	49	228	327	343	670	116	293	23	10	307	94	-26	-2	-10	+63	+77	10.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	128	25	5	10	64	152	19	16	9	227	327	343	670	115	292	23	10	307	94	-5	-0	-2	+12	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6071	5242	1195	236	41	94	603	1411	184	152	81	228	329	342	671	114	292	23	10	307	94	-43	-2	-15	+106	+129	17.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	127	25	4	10	65	151	20	16	9	226	328	339	667	112	290	23	10	307	94	-5	-0	-2	+12	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Colorado · 117 PAwOBA .439 → .307 (−132)K% 15.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	15.56%
HBP% /PA	9.40%	—	×0.700	—	—	6.58%
Singles /BIP	24.19%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.990	—	16.29%
Doubles /BIP	11.29%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.990	—	6.71%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.990	—	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .439 → .307; ISO .150 → .094; BABIP .377 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Johnny Edwards'61-'74 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,132 PA	7.7	5,132	81	15	240*	313*	380*	+92	+0	16.7	16.2
/162	664	10	2	+11.9	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 16
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.4	3,600	56	89	230	325	345	+64	+40	13.4	11.0
/162	664	10	16	+11.9	+7.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#4Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#5Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Douglas Veliz (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	217/320/305	88	289	0	1	24%	10%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	43→53	38→50	50→40	55	201/288/280	79	244	5	8	19%	10%	65	-1.2	227/293/354	127	281	14	4	23%	8%	84	+0.1	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Ricky Cabrera 2024 · A	19	48→44	40→45	57→60	43	224/310/324	99	311	7	18	28%	7%	84	+0.1	216/282/315	99	309	8	12	31%	6%	71	-0.8	213/277/319	106	299	10	14	30%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
●Elvis Andrus 2007 · A	18	50→60	38→50	47→60	42	237/283/320	84	312	5	14	25%	6%	71	-0.8	249/302/329	80	321	5	29	22%	6%	80	-0.1	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
●Miguel Vargas 2019 · A	19	51→54	39→55	52→50	46	240/297/334	93	309	5	8	23%	7%	80	-0.2	252/306/371	119	311	10	8	21%	7%	91	+0.7	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0

Douglas Veliz

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps